Tech Talk for Friday October 6th 2017

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Next Tech Talk Report

Next daily report is available on Tuesday October 10th. Monday is a Thanksgiving holiday in Canada and Columbus Day in the U.S. Canadian equity markets are closed. U.S. equity markets are open, but Monday is a bank holiday. Activity in U.S. equity markets will be diminished.

Pre-opening Comments for Friday October 6th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 point in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of the September Employment Report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for September Non-farm Payrolls was a gain of 90,000 versus a revised gain of 169,000 in August. Actual was a loss of 33,000. Consensus for September Unemployment Rate was unchanged from August at 4.4%. Actual was a drop to 4.2%. Consensus for September Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.1% in August. Actual was an increase of 0.5%.

The Canadian Dollar dipped to US 79.45 cents from 79.56 cents following release of Canada’s employment report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for September employment growth was 14,500 versus 22,000 in August. Actual was 10,000. Consensus for September Unemployment Rate was an increase to 6.3% from 6.2% in August. Actual was 6.2%.

Netflix gained $0.61 to $195.00 after Wedbush increased its target to $88 from $82. Yesterday, Netflix announced a price hike for its services

Costco dropped $5.07 to $162.00 following release of quarterly results indicating narrowing profit margins.

Kraft Heinz added $0.63 to $78.86 after Piper Jaffray raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral.

Apple slipped $0.43 to $154.96 on reports of an issue with its iPhone 8 plus battery.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2017/10/05/stock-market-outlook-for-october-6-2017/

Note seasonality charts on New Manufacturing Orders, Canadian Dollar, Initial Claims, Non-farm Payrolls and Soybean Futures.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $DISCK $STZ $ABC $BIIB $RCL $BXP. Breakdown: $NAVI.

Editor’s note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included PEG, NFLX , CBG, BK, CB, MSFT and MA. Breakdown: HRB

Base Metals ETF $DBB moved above $$18.64 extending an intermediate uptrend. Good for base metal stocks!

Editor’s Note: DBB holds futures contracts weighted 1/3 copper, 1/3 zinc and 1/3 aluminum.

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First Quantum $FM.CA, a base metal stock moved above $15.47 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Southern Copper $SCCO, world largest copper producer moved above $42.00 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Finning $FTT.CA moved above $29.02 extending intermediate uptrend. Gains from higher base metal prices.

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Lithium ETN $LIT moved above $39.83 to 5 year high extending intermediate uptrend.

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Brazil iShares $EWZ moved above $43.66 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Interfor $IFP.CA moved above $20.40 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Netflix $NFLX moved above $191.50 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Strong Canadian Dollar taking a toll on Canada export activity, down on the year by 4.2%.

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Emerging Markets ETF $EEM moved above $$45.96 to all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Microsoft $MSFT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $75.97 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 5th 2017


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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 5th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 5th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 1.80 to 76.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 4.46 to 80.50 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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66 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday October 6th 2017”

  1. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong update on the DOW:

    “As the Dow closed above our closing resistance yesterday, we can still see a further attempt to test the top of the channel. Targets today are 22734.05, 22893.90, and 22970.41. Support becomes critical at 22405 followed by 22219. Keep in mind that this week was a Directional Change. There is still a possibility of a high this week, pull back into next week, and then we can turn back up into the end of the month. Techically, a lower closing today would tend to warn of that pull back. Short-term Channel is 22530-21433. A closing for today below 22530 will signal the pull back. Keep in mind that we are approaching our next target area long-term which is the 23765 level to be precise. This will produce some congestion, but we appear to be laying the foundation to rise to extremes.

    Our Major Target Resistance for this year stands at 25,648. The critical support is shaping up now at 20,000. There is a serious risk of a very critical Vertical Market move that can create the most awesome trade in a generation beyond most people’s wildest imagination. We will focus on this at the WEC.

    ONLY Exceeding this week’s high next week ON A CLOSING BASIS next week, will warn of a potential cycle inversion that may be driven by an intense shift in capital flows we are starting to pick up. As we warned, we have seen TWO Weekly Bullish Reversals elected since September in the Dow expressed in Euro. The latest decision against Amazon is a serious economic blow to the EU, but they are too absorbed about hunting money to grasp that they are telling everyone – get out. Likewise we see the exact opposite economic trend in Canada with the push to raise significant taxes there too. We have serious trends that normally set capital into flight mode. This is starting to be picked up in our models.

    We are approaching an important turning point coming up in November. Be on guard for political-economic changes at that point in time.”

  2. Mick/NV Says:

    Cnq.to gapped down on the open with a red elder bar and it looks like it might test the main pivot point support. Would like to see the stock drop to around the $39 level or below as would like to add to my holding. At last look, oil was down around $1.5 to under $50, not sure if this will last or not, CNQ.to is still down 2.5% ytd.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p00851195733&a=485258366

  3. Mick/NV Says:

    TD.to gapped down yesterday after going ex-dividend, normally these gaps disappear the next day on stockcharts but it appears the drop was greater than the dividend in this case. Regardless, the drop is continuing today and looks like price is rolling over. There is still a big gap at around $65 that should get covered at some point. Price may test the main pivot point support next week, have a full position in this one and would be very tempted to buy more if price dropped below the s1 pivot point support.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55062134466&a=402003323

  4. polish1 Says:

    COST was downgraded today by Morgan Stanley
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  5. JP/BC Says:

    Thanks Sherri:

    I’m trying to understand what Armstrong means when he says “There is a serious risk of a very critical Vertical Market move that can create the most awesome trade in a generation beyond most people’s wildest imagination.” Given his comments in the previous paragraph, I assume this is a strong move up. He is also giving warnings about problems in November. I’m having trouble piecing together a timeline. I wish it was Ron/BC speaking. He is always easy to follow, lol.

  6. polish1 Says:

    Reason for pop in gold. silver
    North Korea announced they may soon test fire a missile capable of reaching west coast of USA

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC
    Well if we could get hold of his Socrates Computer model and draw some charts with support and resistance levels along with some trendlines and the other technical data used we might collectively be able to put all his stuff together more easily.

  8. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    #7 like your comment!

    Hardly any volume; smart ones made it an extra long weekend.

  9. Paula Says:

    Mick/NV,
    Re TD.TO: I find it a bit confusing how Stockcharts deals with dividends. According to TD webbroker, the dividend is .60, so it is larger than the drop yesterday of .12. (The stock dropped .27 on Wednesday Oct 04, so just over ½ of the dividend if you add the two day decline). I did sell today on a drop below the 10 day ema but would like to buy again at a lower price. I do not want to be holding it if it goes down to fill the gap ~ $65 but I would like to buy it in that area. I guess you are a long term investor, so you just hold through pullbacks?

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    I sold all my Teck/B.TO yesterday as I reached my dollar value goal as it was for trading.

    Never hurts to take profit 😉 but how far will it pullback for entry again. I am hoping for $26 range. Thanks!

  11. Paula Says:

    Re CNR.TO, TRP.TO:
    CNR.TO rallied up above the resistance area ~ 103 to as high as 104, but did not hold; could call it a false upside break out. Maybe it will find support at in the 97.5 area again?
    This is almost the reverse of what TRP.TO did yesterday, which had a false down side break.
    Here are Ron/BC’s charts:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNR.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p60494460729&a=545877389

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TRP.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34077673102&a=546097929

  12. Paula Says:

    Sandra,
    Congratulations on your TECK/B.TO trade. I tried trading this but it did not feel right. Made a bit of $ but felt relieved to get out of it – like getting out of a bad relationship. LOL. I don’t think I will consider it again. Might look at Don V.’s pick ZMT.TO instead, if I am tempted to look at the base metals again. I know it is low volume but equal weight so reduces the single stock risk. Or XME on the USD side, but John Murphy recently pointed out that it is being held back by the precious metals. Don V. does show DBB above in an uptrend so maybe that is the way to go even though it is futures based, therefore can’t hold it too long b/c of the monthly contract roll over.

  13. polish1 Says:

    Crude Oil has rallied for the past few months, could it be peaking? Joe Friday suggests Crude finds itself at a key inflection point for it and its Fear Index (OVX).
    Below looks at Crude Oil futures over the past decade-
    https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/joe-friday-potential-time-to-short-crude-oil-oct-6.jpg
    Crude Oil rally of late has it testing 6-year falling resistance as its fear index (OVX) is testing 2015 lows at the same time.
    Joe Friday Just The Facts Ma’am– If Crude breaks support and OVX breaks resistance at (4), Crude could be a good prospect to short, as selling pressure in Crude could pick up.
    The stock market rally of late might get a little nervous if Crude would happen to break down and OVX breaks out. What Crude does here will be important for Crude Oil and the broad market in general, as traders now own a crowded trade, similar to what they did back at the highs in 2014.

  14. Mick/NV Says:

    Paula

    TD.to has a beta of 1 so with the market down around .5% I would expect it to drop a similar amount, currently .52% . With yesterdays drop, there is a gap at $71.30, I tend to think that will get filled ahead of the $65 gap, but who knows.
    Yes, I do hold for the long term, I don’t get concerned about these small pullbacks or even a larger one to cover the $65 gap if that occurs, those are buying opportunities, in my opinion.
    Here is a 5 year performance chart for TD.to, RY.to and XFN.to , one would have doubled their money holding either TD or RY and almost doubling holding the etf, I think those are good returns.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56868700917

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I phoned a Questrade trader yesterday about getting in and out of ZMT.to as the chart is looking like it has potential and the metals are rebounding. He said if you only want a few hundred shares it shouldn’t be a problem. That’s what I really hate about all these Z type ETFs. Obviously there isn’t much interest in them with the extremely low volumes. And if no one is all that interested that does tell you something. Here is the chart of ZMT.to and overlaid is XME and DBB on the NYSE. They all track much the same so why bother with the low volume Z group when there are high volume equivalents on the NYSE. To be fair the DBB doesn’t have a lot of volume either but XME does. There are other base metal trades as well on the NYSE with good volume to get a quick fill in or out and a small bid/ask spread in price.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZMT.TO&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73493748523&a=532823401

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XME&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67912322301&a=532827313

  16. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri for the Armstrong update……..I’m a little slow…..could you possibly break it down into simple language as you understand him?….

  17. dutchcanuck Says:

    The Motley Fool recommends a purchase of CPX.TO after it’s recent 6% drop. Div is 6.8%.
    Own it, may buy more.
    And Larry they also recommend CM.TO and ENF.TO.

  18. dutchcanuck Says:

    Now the proud owner of 1280 sh of PPL.TO after the Veresen conversion. Glad to old this one altho I would have preferred to keep my original position.

  19. Paula Says:

    Mick/NV
    Thanks for the reply. Interesting to get your perspective. You have done well with holding for the long term.
    But everyone is different…
    I don’t like to hold through the pullbacks. The trick is getting back in at the lows – knowing when it has stopped going down and is starting to turn up. That is what technical analysis is for – but have to be there, watching and willing to be wrong.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    The U.S. continues to cut regulations encourage manufacturing. They are also proposing major tax cuts that both sides of congress agree is needed. And Canada is increasing small business taxes and going overboard with environmental regulations and seeing major companies leave Canada and sell off assets and are investing back into the U.S. And it seems many think they can save the world with the “not in my back yard” mentality. Never thought I’d see the day when the ultra left could be as radical as the ultra right. But I guess when they get up on their high horse and claim they have the moral high ground their egos are just as powerful as the ultra right. Keep that up and we’ll be the next 3rd world country. I’ve deleted the rest of the post as there may be women and children reading this,lol………….

  21. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    DBB does seem to have done the best of these three, so if one is only holding it for a short term trade, it should be ok even with the low volume. I traded XME a couple of times but it did not make very good moves even when copper was up much higher. If you look at John Murphy’s latest market message, he explains why XME has been a relative laggard: 48% weight in steel stocks, 17% weight in gold and silver stocks, and only 11% and 4% weights in aluminum and copper stocks, respectively. He also talks about COPX and PICK, both low volume. So, “pick” your poison…

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    IF you look at a long term chart of any high quality stock you can see the pullbacks and new highs all along the way. If you want to own the stock for the income it pays then these pullbacks don’t mean much even if they sell off like the CD banks did from mid 2014 to January 2016. Someday you will see a Canadian bank stock selling for $500 per share and you will see long term stock holders buying the stock and adding on pullbacks to $450. It’s all relative. And almost all charts look like this overall with price starting at the bottom left and rising to the upper right. But try to have a conversation with a group of people who have invested over the last 30 to 50 years and they won’t be telling you how great it all was investing. The price charts are not adjusted for inflation either, so even a chart of the minimum wage that was about $1.00 per hour in the 60’s and now about $11 to $12 per hour it looks like those making minimum wages now must be living like kings! But is the same thing due to the cost of living. That’s one of the only thing wrong with charts.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=1988-10-06&en=today&id=p75395992247&a=548848340

  23. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Wow, that is a looonnngggg term perspective. I actually did own some Royal Bank in the 90’s but thought I was clever selling covered calls and got called away – never did buy back in…
    No doubt, there are some who have held over that period of time. They could sell and live like kings in spite of inflation but they might have a lot of taxes to pay! But that is another discussion…

  24. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #20
    Well written rant…lol. It doesn’t do much for Canadian unity either to quash the Canada East pipeline. So much for a made in Canada solution for our oil…keep those mid-east tankers coming.

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    HEre is a chart of COPX. It has higher volume than the DBB and looking at the chart you can see COPX cleared resistance and is consolidating just above and so has DBB done exactly the same thing looking at the overlaid DBB. And DBB tracks the COPX ‘most’ of the time so will likely correlate again. FCX that one would think would be tracking Copper has been weaker since early 2017. But COPX that cleared $25 suggests a rally to $32.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18543540283&a=406150658

  26. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Yes, COPX has about double the volume of DBB and your analysis shows the potential for a good trade. I would not consider FCX, in spite of high volume – put it in the same bucket as TECK – too much individual company risk with their own issues/stories…

    Here is Arthur Hill’s COPX chart. It is over a shorter time period than yours, yet one can see lots of trading opportunities…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62349032095&a=548796056

  27. roy Says:

    Hello DutchCanuck
    Thanks for the heads up on VSN. So, what do you think of PPL now that the acquisition has closed?
    Do you also own ENB and ENF and any ideas as to their underperformance?

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Thanks for the heads up. I don’t tend to read John Murphy’s email until later in the day. I see he covered the metals very well along with the ETFs holdings. It looks to me like Vale being a foreign metal stock that outperformed most of the other metal stocks as well might be the best choice. I’d like to see it pullback to $9.70 or clear $10.50 to get long. Even better would be a pullback to $9.00 but is less likely to do that. I was surprised that A.Hill expected the S.Triangle would be a bullish breakout as it is bearish pattern when in a downtrend. Price ultimately broke out over the downtrendline on the reversal.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VALE&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92788406081&a=548858447

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VALE&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06079633380&a=543307447

  29. dutchcanuck Says:

    BNN running a poll about the pipeline issue.
    Do you agree with:
    Trudeau
    Notley
    Wall
    Horgan
    So far Wall has 80% support

    Looks like the gang, who can’t shoot straight does not have a lot of support for their policies(s).

    Always liked Alberta and Albertans. Wonder if the family would like to live there(lol)

  30. dutchcanuck Says:

    Roy #27
    Yes I do own ENB and ENF. Underperformance, I look no further than Ottawa. Their pending takeover of Sceptre. They are tight for cash.

    Plan to keep the Pembina. Looks like the best pipeline co around at the moment

  31. roy Says:

    Thanks Dutchcanuck for # 30
    I will hold those 2 and collect the dividend.

  32. Bernie Says:

    roy,

    Re: ENB & ENF
    I also own both. They have the best current and projected dividend growth of the Canadian pipes. I also like PPL, just don’t own it.

  33. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    You’re welcome. Lots of good resources on Stockcharts. Arthur Hill does a weekly video, which was out earlier today. I don’t usually get to it until later in the weekend.
    Vale is certainly high volume and has a long way to get back to its old highs, but it is still an individual company, so I am trying to avoid those, especially in the metals sector.
    Lately I am more interested in some USD etfs: IJR and XBI:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IJR&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24600536606&a=496673383

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XBI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75887276389&a=548796050

    Also, RE #23: I should have added: Holding stocks long term is an antidote to the erosion of your currency through inflation. Same as real estate or possibly art…
    Over the really long term, any sale has been a poor choice. I believe that is the orthodox view.

    http://www.riosmauricio.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Siegel_Stocks-For-The-Long-Run.pdf

  34. DougP Says:

    re #30

    I own all three, ENB, ENF and PPL. PPL and ENB look good in the topyields.nl TSX 60 list, being among the top ten yielders of this illustrious group. Ross Grant avoids PPL and TPP for his BTSX (Beat the TSX) portfolio (see Canadian Money Saver) as they are both former Income Trusts, with erratic dividends. I am tailoring his list somewhat by keeping ENF and PPL, and adding Canadian banks (TD, RY in particular) as the latter may not make the BTSX list for this year, but in my books at least they offer a degree of comfort. At 77, comfort is all important. Happy Thanksgiving to all my unwitting friends on this site.

  35. Mick/NV Says:

    For those worried about inflation , here is an example how bank dividends have exceeded inflation concerns over the years, the chart says it all

    http://dir.richardsongmp.com/documents/126639/140173/Ellis+-+Q2+Commentary+2016.pdf/e553aa04-fc22-4ba5-b683-c5a739355540

  36. Neil/Ab Says:

    Doug P
    If by “unwitting” you mean “lacking in wit or having none whatsoever”, you could only be referring to me. So, thanks for the wishes, and Happy Thanksgiving to you my new friend.

  37. Neil/Ab Says:

    Bernie, Dutchcanuck
    Re: Enbridge
    For a contrary view, check out John Zechner on this mornings Marketcall. I’m not a big Zechner fan, but thought his comments were interesting.

  38. Neil/Ab Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Some pretty good action on PHO.t starting around 2:30 this afternoon. Up about 9% on good volume. I could find any news/reason. Anything happen that you’re aware of? It is very strange price action given that I added to my position a few days ago, imagine how high it could have gone if I hadn’t. Has been some good insider buying lately.

  39. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I’ve traded stocks since I was 21 and everyone I met and got to speak to that was successful in their life I always brought up the stock market. Especially when I started contracting for individuals and companies. I would always ask them being so successful if they made much of their financial success in the stock market. Every one of them would laugh and say if they hadn’t invested in the stock market they would have much more than they presently do. I met hundreds of individuals and even joined clubs etc. Same story every time. They may have done well ‘most’ of the time a few crashed and wiped out any profits they had from the others. It doesn’t take many to do that. The problem with looking at a chart of the major indexes is they remove stocks like NORTEL and all the others that went bankrupt or never bounced back and then replace them with a healthy stock and pretend it never happened. The new chart always looks good. But it did happen and all those individuals that owned those stocks that failed lost their entire investment as they held on refusing to sell at a loss until there was nothing to lose. I know some of these people and met others with this same story. And that applies to the NYSE as well. But it doesn’t show up on the charts. The broad market rallies in certain sectors for some time and then sells off and some of those companies don’t make it back. Just look at all the previous high flyers on both exchanges and see where they are now. Like all those royalty stocks,or Oil stocks or some of the miners,tech, etc,etc. The idea that one can buy a bunch of stocks and sit there and get rich is a lot of nonsense and a costly mistake many have made. Thankfully I’m not one of them. Even real estate has cost many a lot of money. Many lost money or walked away from their place over the years in recessions or other situations. I know two people that bought a condo in Victoria in 2006-2007 and can’t get what they paid for the place even today with a strong real estate market and low interest rates. And they’ve been paying on a mortgage for all those years and dealing with upgrades and repairs and strata fees etc. And both are rentable and in good areas. All that glitters is not gold………….

  40. roy Says:

    Hello Bernie Re # 32 – Thanks
    I was just wondering why the 2 have not participated in the rally like PPL. I am holding for the dividend and waiting for them to play catch up.
    Neil/AB – I am wondering the same thing about PHO.V. Up nicely today.

  41. dutchcanuck Says:

    PHO.V Analyst on BNN today really high on the stock. Potential takeover target
    Claims they are now supplying components to the 5 largest chip makers.
    No debt. 31c/sh in cash. Own a lot of it.

  42. Sherri Says:

    Re: Armstrong

    I will try to explain his comments tomorrow – “try” being the operative word. I don’t always follow what he’s saying either. I, too, wish he explained things like Ron/BC. Too tired tonight from my new job!!! 🙂

    Re: Photon (PHO.V)

    Ryan Irvine from Keystone Financial is on Moneytalks tomorrow. Maybe some are buying in anticipation of his mentioning the stock? It’s still a recommendation from them.

  43. Bernie Says:

    roy,

    Re: #40
    If you’re referring to the rally over the past month ENB and ENF weren’t the worst price performers of the bunch, but they were 2nd and third last out 7 Canadian pipe stocks. Over the past 3 months ENB & ENF were the 2nd and 3rd best performers. IPL had the top ranking over both time frames.

  44. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #39
    These well off individuals you refer to that fared so poorly in the markets must have been invested in very concentrated portfolios. The general wisdom is to hold no more than a 5% weighting in any one holding so that if a few fail the others will prevent a total collapse. If they had held a diversified dividend stock portfolio few would have been down for very long price wise and very few would have experienced an overall reduction in income had they held on. Only 22% of U.S. dividend growth stocks experienced dividend cuts in 2007 to 2009. The vast majority of those were financials. Canadian companies fared much better, only a handful of dividend growers cut. I haven’t heard numbers for the 2000-02 recession but I would think the numbers were not as severe because few tech stocks paid dividends back then. None of the Canadian banks cut their dividends in either recession but they did see huge drawdowns in the latter recession. I probably too would have panicked if I owned a portfolio heavy in financial stocks 10 years ago. It would have been quite unsettling to see Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual go under and then fret over the price freefall wondering if others would fail or cut their dividends anytime soon. The advisor I had from 1999 to mid 2008 had me in Washington Mutual but I never owned Nortel (other than in an index fund), Bre-X or any other security that went under. I sold WM right after I took control of my portfolio in late June 2008. Luckily, I managed to salvage a few bucks before the entire collapse. My greatest financial gains were from purchases I made during and subsequent to the downfall. Had I sold all and went to cash I likely would be much worse off today. Like others who sold I probably would have been too spooked to know when to get back in.

  45. Ana Says:

    Kam,

    What is the number where your wave one started?

  46. roy Says:

    Any one here follow bio telemetry – BEAT on Masdaq? Any comments?

  47. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I’m not referring to dividends. Dividends are like the tip to a restaurant owner. He isn’t that concerned about getting the tip as he is about getting paid for the meal he served. “Return OF CAPITAL” is more important than “RETURN ON CAPITAL”. Nortel networks accounted for over 25% of the entire $TSX at one point so anyone diversified in high quality stocks would have had a bunch of it. And there is a long list of companies that went broke including some Funds. And most people I spoke to didn’t ever intend to sell off their portfolio as they were told to always hold on. I know my partner owned the Crocus Fund that the Manitoba government gave its blessing to and it shows up on her statement as worth nothing. Just like in B.C. with BRICK shares the government was so proud of. But each and everyone I’ve talked to had their own story about what trashed their account. But everyone did see their account trashed for one reason or another. Even the one day flash crash years ago took out their stop losses their advisor told them to have in place. The stories could become a book if I wanted to put one together. The 2008-09 bear market was just the last one. I recall 1974-75 and especially 1982-84 and the sudden selloffs in 1987 and 1989 and 1990-92 and 1998. And the recessions along the way that people told me caused them to liquidate their portfolios as they had family obligations to deal with. In B.C. many business shut down such as B.C. Forest Products and a long list of others. And some people used some leverage at their brokerage suggestion and got margin called. The bottom line is stocks are just a financial instrument to achieve an increase in value realistically. What happened in the past will happen again as it always has and you’ll talk to those that lost a lot of money investing for the long term. Here is a chart of Blackberry that was the darling of the $TSX. There are thousands of investors that still own this since buying at much higher prices. How many other dividends will it take to equal what they lost in their capital on even just this one stock. Everyone just had to own this one and were buying it all the up AND all the way down. It was the AAPL of today that should have become the belle of the ball. There is a long list of stocks like this in all the stock sectors. That’s why now I can’t find many that wish to talk about their stock owning history anymore. Present conditions remind me of the movie Groundhog Day. It never changes. Only thing missing is the music coming on in the morning,lol………..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BB.TO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79111559356&a=548927538

  48. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    I would never advocate putting everything into stocks or everything into real estate or any one vehicle dividend stocks included. Its no secret, only a small percentage of individuals become wealthy through the stock market. The vast majority of that small number got there not by stocks alone but by by living a conservative lifestyle, frugal spending and saving a large portion of their income. Their savings would have been spread across banks accounts, fixed income vehicles like (GICs, bonds, preferred shares) and a broad diverse mix of conservative blue chip dividend stocks.

    Like you I’ve never personally met anyone that made their fortune in quick fashion via speculative trading or investing via a concentrated focus. I equate that to gambling, it seldom works out well. That said, I’ve never met anyone that made a fortune through bank savings either. I prefer to own the bank that pays the savings…but only as a small portion of my overall investments.

  49. Bernie Says:

    Happy Thanksgiving everyone 🙂

  50. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    #48
    Good post and agree with the balancing of assets. “Moderation in thought and deed.”
    I guess my main point was to remain cautious and pay close attention to what’s going on. And when in doubt get out. If all everyone did was to sell an investment if it fell below their purchase price quickly they would all do well with the odd small loss. And saving your money is far more important that making more of it. There is so much deception in the financial world that sucks people into investments that blow up it is hard to believe it’s even legal. Some of it isn’t. Even governments are guilty of getting involved in poor investments. Most of these people that lost big did great with over 90% of their investments. But it’s that 5%-10% that didn’t that can really trash an account. That’s the one common denominator that seems to trip people up.
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone as well. We are all very lucky to have what we’ve got.

  51. dutchcanuck Says:

    Paula #33

  52. dutchcanuck Says:

    Paula #33
    The Jeremy Siegel opus is a real gem. Thank you for that.
    Some light reading for the long weekend.

  53. Kam Says:

    Ana,

    Sent you a DM on Stocktwits.

  54. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong post:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/understanding-cycles/the-bull-market-this-time-it-really-is-different/

  55. Mick/NV Says:

    For every negative story about financial loss during certain time frames there are also positive stories about financial gains, except the positive never gets told, like the newscasts, bad news sells, misery loves company, it’s unfortunate .

  56. Kam Says:

    Re-54.

    First things first, Sherri I am not shooting the messenger so please please don’t mind.

    I am not bear or bull but I can’t believe he is saying this time its different and throwing in some stories of this that blah blah blah is different than last time, to back up his theory.
    Only thing different is the interpretation people throw in to justify their excuses or stories. Watch, once the 4th wave takes over, those people will be the first one to say get out or short at the bottom.

  57. Rol Lew Says:

    Roy, re #46 BEAT – BioTelemetry Inc – up 50% since Jan 17 from $22 to $33. PE ~~ 22
    There is a bullish article Oct 6th @Yahoo Finance

    https: //finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-biotelemetry-beat-100010973.html
    (spaces inserted after https:

    I have no biotechs at the moment, but I have traded a couple diversified ETF’s,
    BBC and BBP in the last year.
    Both of these are also up for the year. BBC from $19 to $29 & BBP from $33 to $42.

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?BEAT,BBC,BBP,ISRG|D|A12,26,9|0

    Someone here mentioned ISRG about 3 mths ago. Now, THAT IS ONE HOT SHOT. Split 3-1 on Friday. PE is around 18.

  58. Rol Lew Says:

    There have been many good looking health care stock & ETF charts this year (& and many ugly ones too). The eternal question always remains, should I or shouldn’t I.

    http: //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?ABT,XLV,FOLD,ABBV,UNH,EXEL,IMMU,XBI,SGMO,DVAX,JUNO,VRTX|D|A12,26,9|0

    http: //stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CTLT,NVCR,CBAY,CORT,HUM,SYK,CNC,ALGN,CERN,AET,TMO,ABEO|D|A12,26,9|0

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NVO,LABU,CALA,CI,ANTM,MYGN,ALNY,PBYI,FGEN,IPXL,SUPN,BLUE|D|A12,26,9|0

    Currently holding just HUM.

  59. Neil/Ab Says:

    PBH.t
    Don’t think I have heard this one discussed here. Been a long time 5I favourite. I was late getting in, first bought early spring, added some a couple of weeks ago.
    They make, um, sandwiches n stuff.
    Anyway, I mention it only because this shows one of the best looking charts in any time frame that one is likely to see. Check it out. Also, it is now three days of breaking to new highs, and, while approaching, is still not overbought on RSI 21. Obviously, I don’t know whether the appreciation can continue but one old adage says, new highs lead to new highs.

  60. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC, thanks for your comments – always very well thought out with the wisdom gleaned from experience…
    Bernie, thanks for carrying on the discussion and your point about asset allocation – a very important one…
    Dutchcanuck, thanks for your comment. Glad you are enjoying some light reading on this long weekend…lol
    Thanks to all who contribute to this site and make it one that I keep coming back to. You are genuine, thoughtful, well meaning and considerate, for which I am grateful…

  61. Bernie Says:

    Paula, Ron/BC, et al:

    For the record I own almost 0% fixed income in my investments. I prefer to consider company pension, CPP & OAS as fixed income content. They will make up about 48% of my cash flow once I turn the tap on full.

  62. Larry/ON Says:

    On Vacation in Budapest. Will not be actively posting until next week. I wish everyone a pleasant Thanksgiving.

  63. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON:
    Enjoy the spectacular city!

  64. Sandra Says:

    Paula,Ron/BC,Bernie, Dutchcanuck: thanks for carrying on the discussion on asset allocation – We all learn from it!

    Happy Thanksgiving!

  65. Neil/Ab Says:

    Travail Mining (TV.t)
    Looks to be breaking out of a nice cup/saucer and handle formation started in March.
    Don’t own any at present but think I may take a small position tomorrow and see what happens.

  66. Neil/Ab Says:

    That should, of course, been Travali, not Travail.

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