Tech Talk for Tuesday January 2nd 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 2nd

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 8 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are benefiting from positive money flows coming from individual investors deploying yearend bonuses and from institutional in investors deploying quarter end premium receipts.

L Brands added $1.18 to $61.40 after Beard upgraded the stock to Outperform. Target was raised to $70 from $60.

JP Morgan upgraded and raised target prices on insurance stocks including Unum Group, Torchmark, Prudential Financial, Principal Financial Group and Aflac.

Macy’s gained $0.26 to $25.45 after JP Morgan raised its target price to $24 from $20.

Netflix gained$2.79 to $194.75 after Macquarie upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.

 

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The Bottom Line

Once again, several broadly based U.S. equity indices as well as the TSX Composite Index reached all-time highs last week during their Santa Claus rally period from mid-December to the first week in January. Seasonal influences for most world equity markets turned positive in mid-October and remain positive until the end of the first week in January. Traditional seasonal sensitive sectors (e.g. Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Financials) continue to lead the market higher. However, medium term technical indicators for the S&P 500 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average as well as TSX Composite Index remain overbought and short term technical indicators showed early signs of rolling over last week. Preferred strategy is to take at least partial profits on strength in seasonally attractive equities and Exchange Traded Funds near the end of the current “Santa Claus rally” with the understanding that their next significant intermediate upside move likely will not resurface until next February.

Tax loss selling pressures in the underperforming energy, oil service and precious metal sectors peaked on schedule at the end of the second week in December. These sectors have recovered strongly since then as they entered into a period of seasonal strength. Look for continuing outperformance by these sectors into at least February.

 

Economic News This Week

December Manufacturing ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to slip to 58.0 from 58.2 in November.

November Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to increase 0.6% versus a gain of 1.4% in October.

FOMC Meeting Minutes from the December 13th meeting are released at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday.

December ADP Employment Report to be released at 8:15 AM EST on Thursday is expected to decline to 185,000 from 190,000 in November.

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday are expected to decline to 240,000 from 245,000 last week.

December Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday are expected to drop to 190,000 from 228,000 in November. December Private Non-farm Payrolls are expected to drop to 183,000 from 221,000 in November. December Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from November at 4.1%. December Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in November.

November U.S. Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to $48.3 billion from $48.7 billion in October.

Canadian December Employment report released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to record a gain of 15,000 versus an increase of 79,500 in November. December Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 6.0% from 5.9% in November.

Canadian November Merchandise Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to slip to $1.4 billion from $1.5 billion in October.

December Services ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 57.6 from 57.4 in November.

 

Earnings Reports This Week

Thursday: Walgreen, Monsanto, Bombardier

Friday: Constellation Brands

Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was quietly bullish, typical during the middle week during the Santa Claus rally period from mid-December to the first week in January. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 7 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 3. Number of stocks trading in an uptrend increased to 315 from 314, number of stocks trading in a neutral trend increased to 54 from 52 and number of stocks in a downtrend decreased to 131 from 134. The Up/Down ratio increased last week to (315/131=) 2.40 from 2.34.

Economic and earning news this week is quiet. Economic focus is on the December Employment report to be released on Friday.

Medium term technical indicators (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remain at intermediate overbought levels

Short term technical indicators for equity markets and most sectors (short term momentum, above/below 20 day moving average) generally are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Exceptions are industrial commodity futures and related ETFs/equities.

Seasonal influences on a wide variety of equity indices and sectors began to turn neutral/positive in early October and tend to reach a short term peak at the end of the first week in January. During the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index bottomed on average on October 10th. Historically, December has been one of the strongest months and the “Santa Claus rally” from December 15th to January 6th is the strongest three week period in the year for U.S. and Canadian equity indices. The TSX significantly outperforms the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average during this period.

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The outlook for S&P earnings and sales remains positive (unchanged from last week). Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 10.9% on a year-over-year basis on a 6.7% increase in sales. First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 11.2% on a 6.8% increase in sales. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 10.9% on a 6.8% increase in revenues. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 12.4% on a 5.8% increase in revenues. Fourth quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 11.7% on a 4.4% increase in revenues. For all of 2018, earnings are expected to increase 11.8% on a 5.6% increase in sales.

Short term political uncertainties remain, including North Korean “sabre rattling”, struggling NAFTA negotiations and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election

Earnings and revenue prospects beyond the third quarter report season are exceptional for U.S. based companies with international exposure. Consensus for S&P 500 earnings on a year-over-year are expected to exceed 10% in the fourth quarter of 2017 and throughout 2018. Earnings will benefit significantly from weakness in the U.S. Dollar on a year-over-year basis when revenues and earnings from international operations will benefit from higher valued foreign currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index averaged 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 101 in the first quarter of 2017. Weakness last week likely will encourage analysts to raise their 2018 earnings estimates.

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Calculating Technical Scores

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          Higher highs and higher lows

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          Not up or down

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          Lower highs and lower lows

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

 

The S&P 500 Index dropped 9.73 points (0.36%) with the entire drop happening in the last half hour of trading on Friday. Intermediate trend remains up. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average (Also known as the S&P 500 Momentum Barometer) was unchanged last week at 72.80. Percent remains intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

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Percent of S&P 500 trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 78.60 from 78.00. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 78.20 from 78.00 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks slipped las week to 65.86 from 66.67 last week and moved below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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TSX Composite Index added 43.86 points (0.27%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative (Score: 0). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators are trending up (Score: 1). Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 61.57 from 59.09. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 67.36 from 61.98. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 34.84 points (0.14%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 93.33% and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index increase last week to 63.95 from 63.34 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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NASDAQ Composite Index dropped 56.57 points (0.81%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at 2.

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Russell 2000 Index dropped 7.42 points (0.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up.

Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 2.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 62.68 points (0.59%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators began to roll over on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to 4 from 6.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index dropped 10.70 points (0.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 4.

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The Nikkei Average dropped 137.82 points (0.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to neutral from negative. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score remained last week at 2.

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Europe iShares added $0.15 90.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to neutral from negative. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Shanghai Composite Index added 10.11 points (0.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to neutral from negative. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score improved last week to 2 from -2.

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Emerging Markets iShares gained $0.62 (1.33%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above $47.22 on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index plunged 1.09 (1.17%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down on a move below 92.43. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Euro gained 1.41 (1.19%) last week. Intermediate uptrend resumed on a move above 119.61. The Euro remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Canadian Dollar gained US0.96 cents (1.22%) last week. Intermediate trend returned to neutral from negative on a move above 79.22. The Canuck Buck moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Japanese Yen gained 0.49 (0.56%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen returned to above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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British Pound gained 1.42 (1.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

The CRB Index responded strongly to weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The CRB Index gained 5.98 points (3.18%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above 192.99 on Friday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive from negative. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from -2.

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Gasoline added 2.6 cents per gallon (1.47%) last week. Trend changed to neutral from down on a move above $1.79 per gallon. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive. Gas remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 0.

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Crude Oil gained $1.95 per barrel (3.34%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on a move above $59.05. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Natural Gas gained $0.19 per MBtu (7.14%) last week on colder than average weather. Intermediate trend remained down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from negative. “Natty” moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -6.

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S&P Energy Index gained 1.05 points (0.20%) last week. Intermediate trend remained up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 3.09 points (2.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Gold gained $30.50 per ounce (2.39%) last week. Intermediate trend changed on Friday to up from down on moves above $1301.30 and $1308.40. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Gold remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 0.

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Silver gained $0.45 per ounce (2.69%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. Silver remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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The AMEX Gold Bug Index gained 3.40 points (1.80%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on a move above 191.08. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to positive from neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 0.

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Platinum gained $15.30 per ounce (1.66%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength turned positive. PLAT remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum remains up.

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Palladium gained $31.45 per ounce (3.05%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains positive. PALL remains above its 20 day MA. Momentum remains up.

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Copper gained another $0.06 per lb. (1.85%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from neutral on a move above $3.26. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Copper remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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BMO Base Metals ETF gained another $0.10 (0.81%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from neutral on a move above $12.22. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Lumber dropped 8.70 (1.93%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains positive. Lumber remained above its 20 day MA. Momentum turned down on Friday.

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Grain ETN slipped $0.02 (0.08%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains negative. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Indicators have turned up.

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The Agriculture ETF added $0.29 (0.47%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 4.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 8 basis points (3.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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Price of the long term Treasury ETF gained $2.09 (1.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units moved back above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Volatility

The VIX Index added 1.14 (11.52%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 29th 2017

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

StockTwits Released on Friday @EquityClock

U.S. Healthcare Providers iShares $IHF moved above $158.86 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund $CAF moved above $23.47 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: No intermediate breakouts or breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakout included MLM and breakdowns included BWA and YUM.

Another Cdn. gold producer stock Detour Gold $DGC.CA moved above $14.44 and $14.73 setting intermediate uptrend.

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Emerging Markets iShares $EEM moved above $47.22 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Gold ETN $GLD moved above $123.33 and $123.97 setting new intermediate uptrend.

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U.S. Dollar Index ETN $UUP moved above $24.04 setting new intermediate downtrend.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday January 2nd 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) – Anyone hold or follow this stock? Breaking out after basing for a month.

  2. LonyJ Says:

    Bernie, Ron/BC, and others
    There was great discussion a few weeks back on ‘a U.S. Mid-cap trading strategy’, ‘ trading in and out of MDY & TLT’.
    The following link may be known to all but their Jan 2 2018 newsletter caught my attention. http://www.alphaim.net/
    The newsletter starts out
    “Power Indexing in the Mid-Term Election Year
    As readers of our monthly newsletter are aware, the “core strategy” for the Alpha Mid-Cap Power Index Managed Account strategy involves:
    Holding the S&P MidCap 400 Index during a time of year we refer to as the annual “Power Zone”, which includes the months of November through May.
    Holding intermediate-term treasury bonds during a time of year we refer to as the annual “Dead Zone”, which includes the months of June through October.”
    Happy New Year all.

  3. dutchcanuck Says:

    PHO.V Photon Control announced a planned buyback of 5.5M shares for 2018.
    I for one wish they buy back judiciously and not at market highs.Anyway they are generating a ton of cash and no debt.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Utility stocks continue to get hammered. The rise in interest rates seems to be contributing. FTS.to is breaking below the August highs support but is also close to its two year uptrendline, plus is very oversold looking at most oscillators.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40677216052&a=505251651

  5. Mick/NV Says:

    ENB.to has nicely recovered off it’s Nov lows, up 14%. One never knows where the bottom will be in a stock, you can only see that well after the fact, with the stock being oversold in nov., any drop to around the s2 pivot point at that time would still have seen a 9% gain. I mention this in relation to Ron/BC’s post on FTS.to, it is now nearing the s1 pivot point support, I don’t know whether that level will hold or not, there is still selling pressure, but FTS.to has shown to be a fairly resilient stock over time, always nice to buy these stocks as they are selling off, not when they are hitting new highs. Here is the chart for enb.to, couple of gaps to be covered, a drop down to any of those level again should present another buying opportunity.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p79902237270&a=431360406

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    Yes FTS.to has very high odds of holding at its uptrendline which it’s testing here presently. I am tempted to buy it here but with interest rates rising and most Utility stocks selling off I have to question its ability to show capital gains going forward. And I don’t wish to hold a stock that goes sideways or lower just for the dividend. So tough call. But with the oversold condition it should be good for a bounce here starting tomorrow. Just wish that downtrendline was a little further away. A sharp selloff tomorrow would likely get me long with bet on a bounce off support with this oversold level.

  7. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC #4
    You are absolutely right about higher interest rates hammering dividend stocks. What’s even more insidious is that MrMarket is sensing inflation which will lead to more interest rate hikes and this could happen at an accelerated pace. The main cause of inflation is the increase in wages and with skilled people in high demand wages/salaries are starting to rise. Hundreds of thousands of positions in both US and Canada are unfilled due to lack of skill and this puts upward pressure on compensation. Also minimum wage increases of 21% such as in Ontario also contribute. The tax cuts in the US will heat up an already fairly good economy and the results will be more inflation. I have warned with several post on this board in the past year on the impact of higher rates on div stocks and was astonished at the lack of concern. I understand that if you buy growing dividenders that you have some protection, but no one likes to see their book value ravaged.
    Watch the Fed and watch the yield curve.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    I guess us baby boomers all retiring en-mass are causing the skilled worker shortage. I know most everyone I’ve ever known has or is retiring. I’ve read there is a high percentage of all professions including law enforcement and medical people are leaving in high numbers. I know I lost and can’t find a doctor anywhere other than a walk in clinic. And condos etc are slow to complete for lack of workers. And as you once pointed out the last part of a bull market is commodity rallies. And I believe higher interest rates with a booming economy.

  9. Sherri Says:

    What I’m wondering, is everyone really “all in” already? Several people (guru’s) I follow have different points of view, some saying us everyday investors are all in and hitting the “greedy” bar, and others who say the retail investor still hasn’t thrown in the towel and gone all in, so we’re NOT at the top of the market yet…… any thoughts anyone?

  10. dutchcanuck Says:

    Sherri
    Still a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, but it may never get into the stock market as people got stung in the 2008 collapse. There’s still money coming out of the bond market and moving into stocks. We also have significant rotation from growth to value and from big caps to mid/small caps.
    Looking at the tax bill in the US, midcap companies have the most to gain as they get the tax reduction from 35 to 21%. The big guys never paid anywhere near the 35% and the international companies kept their profits overseas and away from the taxman. They can now repatriate it at a onetime 10% tax rate. That’s why many Americans got significant bonuses for Xmas. Other uses
    for that onetime gain will be increased divs, buybacks and M&A. That’s why Bernie’s midcap strategy should do really well.

  11. Sherri Says:

    Thanks dutchcanuck 🙂

  12. Bernie Says:

    LonyJ,

    Re: #2
    Good to hear from you. How did you make out with converting to a DGI strategy?

    Regarding the “U.S. Mid-cap trading strategy” Ron/BC and I discussed it quite a bit between Dec 8-19 last month. This is the actual strategy copied from my comment on Dec 11th:
    “The actual strategy, based on long term strong seasonality, dictates buying a U.S. Mid Cap Index ETF on the beginning of November and holding until the end of May every year. This period was nicknamed the “Power Zone” by the originators of the strategy. They nicknamed the remainder of the year (June thru October) the “Dead Zone”. Its always been known U.S. equities traditionally do better in the fall to spring than in the summer months. Since 1981 the Dow has averaged 8.5% in the Nov-May period vs 1.5% in Jun-Oct. What’s even more remarkable is the mid-caps performance in these periods; 13.4% (Nov-May) vs 1.6% (Jun-Oct).”

    The strategy suggests holding MDY or IJH during the power zone and IEF during the dead zone. I decided to test drive the strategy in $CAD via the unhedged XMC.TO on Nov 2nd. In hindsite I should have gone with the hedged version XMH.TO which is up about 4% to date vs 1.6% so far with XMC.TO.

    Thanks to Ron/BC’s help with his graphic charts and 20,50,1 MACD strategy I’ve modified my approach from holding the entire (Nov to May) period to exiting or entering the trade when the MACD 0 line is crossed. Ron’s long term charts shows there is a fair inverse relationship between MDY and TLT should you or others want to
    trade back and forth between these two. As I was saying I entered the strategy on Nov 2nd. The charts show it would have been best to enter in late September. I’ll know better next time.

    In case you’re wondering, I haven’t abandoned dividend growth investing to play trend trades. 85% of our investment money remains in low beta DGI stocks.

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