Tech Talk for Friday January 12th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 12th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, December Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for December Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.8% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Excluding auto sales, consensus for December Retail Sales was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.1% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.4%.

Fourth quarter reports by major companies began to flow into equity markets this morning. Reporting companies included JP Morgan Chase, Blackrock and Wells Fargo.

Kohl’s gained $2.06 to $63.18 after several investment dealers raised their target price on the stock.

McDonald’s added $0.43 to $173.82 after JP Morgan raised its target price to $186 from $175.

Starbucks gained $0.11 to $60.11 after JP Morgan raised its target price to $64 from $60.

Microsoft gained $0.30 to $88.38 after KeyBanc Capital increased its target to $106 from $94

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

Note seasonality charts on the Energy, Industrial, Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:30: Quietly mixed. Breakouts: $EXPE $ANTM $AOX $ATVI. Breakdowns: $INCY $EQIX.

Editor’s Note: After 10:30 AM EST, breakouts included CRM, DAL, DG, VRTX, MGM, NEM, JEC and XYL. Breakdown: AEP.

Industrial Alliance $IAG.CA moved above $61.34 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.


Cogeco Cable $CCA.CA moved below $84.46 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Record U.S. natural gas inventory drawdown setting new five year lows for this time of year. $UNG


TransAlta $TA.CA moved below $7.13 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Crescent Point $CPG.CA moved above $33.07 extending an intermediate uptrend.


Gasoline ETN $UGA moved above $33.07 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to May!


Newmont Mining $NEM moved above $38.76 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to the end of February.



Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 11th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 11th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts


Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 11th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The S&P 500 Barometer added 1.20 to 80.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.



TSX Momentum Barometer

The TSX Barometer slipped another 0.41 to 54.77 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and rolling over.



Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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32 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday January 12th 2018”

  1. Mick/NV Says: dropped below the main pivot point on wed after the NAFTA news, the drop has continued and there still is a fair bit of selling pressure with the red elder bars. The stock was up 16.5% last year , hard to know whether it will do the same this year. A drop below the s1 pivot point support might be a good entry point for a long term hold, I suspect it will be oversold at that level. Yields around 1.4%, however it has increased its dividend each year for the past 20+ years, at the moment no reason why that will not continue. Have owned this one for awhile, would add if it drops below the s1 level.

  2. dutchcanuck Says:

    Had a stinkbid in at $2.52 on Storage Vault SVI.V since Dec17. Much to my surprise it filled this morning, so my new motto is “Don’t throw out your junk, store it!

  3. Sandra Says:

  4. Bernie Says:

    Further to comments made on CJR.B yesterday:

    IMO Corus is in a declining space that has little to no upside. The dividend hasn’t increased since Feb 2015 so the company was removed from the Canadian Dividend All-Star List at the end of 2017. I held it for about a year in my non-registered account but exited with a small loss last spring. The yield has been dangerously high for quite some time. I expect the dividend will be cut sometime this year.

    The most recent BNN MarketCall guest analyst views are shown below:

    Kash Pashootan
    January 10, 2018
    “Owning this is similar to blindfolding yourself, and trying to walk through your house. You can’t really see where you are going, but you roughly have an idea of what is going on. On this company, we know the business, we know the assets and we know what they are trying to do, but the challenge is that the industry is going through so much change and it is very difficult to value the assets. There are 2 distinctive unknowns with this. 1.) Valuing the assets and 2) betting on their ability to turn around the business they are focused on. Technically they should cut the dividend, but have no choice as that is what is keeping investors there. Dividend yield of 10.3%.”

    David Baskin
    January 4, 2018
    “It is an industry that is changing rapidly. The pricing model and paradigms are changing rapidly. It is difficult to know how valuable the assets in the corporation are and what pricing power they will have. He thinks the dividend is at risk.”

  5. Mick/NV Says: gapped up on the open after they announced a 45% dividend cut and reduced their capex for the year. Even with the current 5% gain this morning, the stock is still down 7% so far this year, last year the stock was down 52%, yet analysts still rate it a buy and/or an outperform. I wonder how many of those insightful analysts had it as a sell last year before losing 50+% of its value, I suspect not many. Good stock to avoid.

  6. Conrad/ON Says:

    Not sure if anyone noticed the ‘lag’ between WTI Crude going up early this week, and the eventual catch-up on the Energy stocks (finally) the last couple of days? Instead of awaiting the follow-through, I sold my late on Tuesday, much to my chagrin the last 3 days. I’ll know to be more patient next time.

  7. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC and everyone: FTK oil stock

    Found this chart for trade. Looks like has room to run as oil is moving nicely. Does anyone own it? Recommend it?

    Ron/BC: please share your thoughts. Thanks!

  8. Sandra Says:

    Really interesting- I didn’t know this existed. An ETF made up of companies that have supported Republican candiadates. IE investing in GOP

    Make America Great Again (MAGA)

  9. Sandra Says:


    We have all done that. I always sell too soon enter too late. Still have a lot to learn.

  10. Sandra Says:

    I did not trade much on US exchange so missed out on a lot.

    Seriously looking at ETFs that will give me exposure to US large caps.

    Info on MAGA ETF:

    Top 10 holdings –
    Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. 0.84%
    TechnipFMC Plc 0.77%
    Halliburton Company 0.77%
    Williams Companies, Inc. 0.76%
    Marathon Oil Corporation 0.76%
    Helmerich & Payne, Inc. 0.76%
    Baker Hughes, a GE Company Class A 0.75%
    Hess Corporation 0.75%
    Newfield Exploration Company 0.74%
    Anadarko Petroleum Corporation 0.74%
    Cardinal Health, Inc. 0.74%

  11. Sandra Says:

    Gold Buffs:
    Looks like ready to break out. Gold was up $15 today.

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Utility stocks continue to get hammered. Here is and see price break to new lows and even closed on the lows of the day on a Friday. Not good. They are all getting very, very oversold and this is one Sector that isn’t in the stratosphere. Perhaps price will test support at $56. Price didn’t hold at $58.60 area which was also oversold and even had a buy signal off the RSI 8 recrossing the 30 line briefly on the way down. Not nice to tease us like that. On a more positive note see the big Utility ETF:XLU on the NYSE now testing important price support at the big round number of “50” that ‘should’ catch a lot of investor’s attention. This level should hold for at least a good bounce back. No technical evidence of a bounce back yet.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Re:FTK. You do like the wild and woolly ones don’t you. But this stock despite its crash and burn and re-rally nature does look very good here. Price looks like it would like to run to $8-$9 in the short term. Lots of price resistance at $9 though which is also its downtrendline. Price is presently overbought with its recent bounce but can remain overbought too with rising prices.

  14. tony Says:


    well don’t worry I own some of your shares. I bought 50% of the shares on december 20 at 8.6, and monday at 10$

    The advice I can offer is to rely on technical analysis the 20/50 moving average cross is a pretty good and Ron MACD(20,50,1) Is the same as the 20/50MA cross a very good indicator that you can trust it has a success rate of over 75%.

    Just need to select a time frame to make the most out of it and rely on your indicators not your emotions.

    Bought some gold late december, ABX and Golgcorp goldc started January with more humph! but thats probably where Fundametal analysis come in handy.

  15. Bernie Says:


  16. Paula Says:

    Greetings and wishing all a very prosperous and Happy New Year!

    Ron/BC: re: BCE and the XLU and your comment that they are very oversold. I keep thinking about the importance of identifying whether there is a trend vs a trading range. If there is a trend, staying with it is more important than “overbought”, “oversold” or “divergences”. Here is something from Arthur Hill’s recent post referring to SPY: “First, RSI can become overbought (>70) and remain near 70 for extended periods. Second, multiple overbought readings are typical in strong uptrends. Third, overbought is a deceptive term because it implies an impending pullback. While there will be a pullback at some point, overbought is not useful for timing such a pullback (and neither are negative divergences).”
    I understand the appeal of picking a top or a bottom and have tried to do so many times and but it is very difficult and stressful to do so consistently. I have to remind myself to “patiently wait for great opportunities” as well as “patiently stay with a trend”.

    In the interest of stimulating more discussion on this blog, here are some more of my thoughts. Comments welcome.
    Currently, these are the Canadian stocks which I am following; some holding, others waiting to buy:
    BCE.TO- I sold after it went x-dividend on December 14th so for those interested in the dividend, there is no point buying it is until closer to the next date in mid March. Some time before then it will likely find “dividend support” since it is getting close to a 5% yield. But on the weekly chart it is only just touching 30.8 on RSI(8). It could go to ~ 56 which was support in 2017.
    BMO.TO – sill holding on to this one after buying and selling a few times and always regretting the sale.
    CNR.TO – have small position and looking to add on more of a pullback. I missed the moment when it went below 95 in November, so hoping for that again.
    TD.TO just went x-dividend on January 9th so this is making the chart look more negative than it is. Currently holding after buying and selling quite a few times and always regretting the sale.
    TRP.TO went x-dividend on December 28th so similar story to BCE. There seems to be a down trend starting so could go down to test some lower levels before finding dividend support.
    Some time ago, MICK/NV pointed out that XEG has underperformed most of the stocks that it contains, so one would be better off picking a few stocks within the top holdings and trade them. Currently these are the ones I am following/trading:
    ECA.TO – one of my more speculative stocks. Trying to hold on to this one b/c it is outperforming XEG and looks like it has great potential if it can get over ~ 18.
    IMO.TO – not so speculative but not doing so well. If it can get over 40, then has potential to ~ 42. If it can get over 42, then 44 is the next level. This is more of a “rising tide lifts all boats” kind of trade and it is majority owned by Exxon so that should count for something.
    SU.TO – Lot of resistance in this area, but if can get over 48, there is more room to run.
    With base metals, I decided to use XBM on the CAD side and COPX on the USD side. Speaking of USD, other ETF’s are IJR, XLK, both of which I sold too soon and waiting to buy back. The USD stocks I am currently holding/trading are CSCO, INTC and JPM. INTC has had quite a pullback recently and is testing the lower end of a short term trading range. But it is still in a long term uptrend with a good yield. Although I have cut back on option writing, this is one that I have done the last couple of months and may continue if/until it breaks out of this range. CSCO is one that I sold too soon and regretted but recently bought back a partial position. JPM I have bought and sold several times, as well as written options, with each sale being the wrong decision so buying back, usually at a higher price than what I sold – difficult for me to do but getting easier. One that I have not been able to do that with: TXN.
    I have been watching CAD/USD more closely and may consider buying some USD if we test the .81 level again. I usually go the other way but am more worried about the long term erosion of CAD. On the other hand…John Murphy has had a few posts recently on the possible breakout of the CRB index, which could be signalling higher inflation and be very good for commodity stocks, which would benefit the TSX overall. But the key word is “some”. It is not all or nothing for me. The weekly chart looks like a potential Head & Shoulders bottom, if it gets above the .83-.84 level. Ana, do you see this?

    I have been using PIVOT POINTS on my charts more b/c they show potential price targets, both on the up and down side, usually much further than what I would expect.
    No links to charts in this post b/c it is too long already and blog would not accept so many charts.

  17. dutchcanuck Says:

    You posted about a possible breakout on PKI.TO.
    Looks like your prognostication came true.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    I’ve been using the RSI 8 (and other even lower and higher numbers) forever it seems and like all oscillators they are range bound and yes over 70 is overbought and that should be recognized as a warning only as prices can continue up and the RSI remain above 70 up to over 90 as well for a long time. But it is a warning and shouldn’t be ignored. The chart ‘pattern’ is the most important issue. This is a good example of using the RSI 8. Note how often it signals a price low when the RSI 8 crosses back above 30. BUTTTTTTTT also notice it gives a buy signal like that even when in a strong downtrend which if taken will see price bounce up for a day or so and then plunge to new lows. The RSI signals short term signals and swing trades and isn’t a ‘trend’ indicator. Anyone using it should realize that. And I disagree with Mr.Hill regarding divergences don’t matter as they do and also give a warning of a loss of momentum at a new price high just like a signaling a stronger market when higher at a new price low. One doesn’t have to pick a top as you can use a trailing stop

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is with the dotted lines marking RSI 8 signals. This shows the ‘short term’ value of the indicator as it nails “short term” price lows all the time. Great for swing trades. BUTTTTTTTT also notice it signals dead cat bounces also when price is in a strong downtrend and still crosses back above 30 as it is for short term trades only. Also notice the negative divergence warning on the last price high as well. Not a guarantee price would fall but a warning worth tightening up your stop or putting on an uptrendline at least that proved to be valuable to capturing the most out of the rally.The lower indicator is the Modified MACD that captures the trend far better.

  20. tony Says:


    I totally agree with Arthur Hill.

    I own BA since october 2016, have you seen the price on this name, if price should pullback to the 50MA its 50$ share lost in capital so I’ve swichted from daily to hourly chart to keep my earnings to the max.

    In the past experience because I only relied on my technicals I lost big chunks of profit. Now I tend to change timeframe to be more nimble when I notice the gap between the price and the 50MA gets to wide.

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    “”IF”” the B.O.C. does not raise rates Wednesday as the expectation is 90% chance he will, the CD$ will get its butt kicked severely. And those reported expectations are often dead wrong. Hard to believe he would with the NAFTA agreement so uncertain. He’s got to be thinking of that.

  22. FishFat Says:

    dutchcanuck re: Parkland Fuel (
    Thanks. So far so good on the B/O. The Ron:MACD(20,50,1) is bullish. The measured rule target price for the H&S B/O is $30.50. Most of the indicators look bullish. My only concern is the current weak momentum on the convention MACD. And I would like to see the SCTR get above 75.

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Something I never posted about regarding the Modified MACD:20,50,1 was MACD is made up of these moving averages of price. And like all indicators the major flaw in this one is prices historically only “trend” 30% of the time and “consolidate sideways” in a range 70% of the time. So when you take these time periods that will be trending and consolidating and smooth them with exponential moving averages this will smooth the lines out resulting in a sideways non trending indicator much of the time as that’s what prices tend to do in the market. So what’s important as this sideways movement is occurring is whether the indicator is above or below the zero line to determine whether the shorter term moving average is above the longer term moving average. This tells you whether the stock “trend” is overall positive or negative overall. Then what we need to see when looking for a place to buy is a change in “trend” back to up again. This will show up if the indicator is well below the zero line and curls back up again. I also put on a 10ema to see this MACD curl up and cross the 10ema line which in itself is a good indicator at this point. Or even when the indicator is above the zero line and falling and tags the zero line and curls up again is bullish which confirms the short term 20 period average tested the longer term 50 period average successfully and remains above the zero line and remains bullish. I used to post about “train tracks” which showed the same thing only with the moving averages overlaid on the price chart. Also one would think a falling M.MACD above the zero line would also be a good short sale. Not a good idea as while that does often occur you also often see a falling M.MACD above the zero line with “price” rising overall. Being less inclined to marry a stock like many do I would exit on a negative cross even above the zero line and possibly reenter on a positive crossover. But the key point here is that being made up of moving price averages you can expect this indicator to track in a sideways range often. Then waiting for bullish trend change to begin is where “important” price changes will take place. There is no prefect indicator or holy grail and with the politics and financial chaos over the last 10 years still affecting the markets it pays to be cautious and not naive about investments.

  24. Ron/BC Says:

    I should add that after a lot of research with various stocks etc I did find the 50,200,1 Modified MACD was far more reliable with few if any whipsaws. I used Daily charts mainly but Weekly charts were super easy to read and see the big picture at a glance. Having both M.MACDs on the chart would work great with the various stocks and ETFs tracked. The longer term M.MACD did catch and keep you in a trend for months at times with confidence and no baby sitting necessary other than the occasional glance at the charts. But of course it was not as timely as the shorter 20,50,1 M.MACD But if timing is more important the 20,50,1 M.MACD was better but with more whipsaws of course. The standard MACD is constantly whipsawing and I’ve always questioned its value due to its overly short periods for most stocks etc. But using moving averages to catch tops and bottoms will never be super timely as they are “averages” not actual price pattern changes that are very timely but also far more whipsaw-ish as well. Depends on what type of trader/investor you are. Or have a long term plan “and” a short term plan. And when you get tired of getting whipsawed out of your positions due to various errors then just let the long term plan work for you. The old saying is “If you don’t know who you are the financial markets are an expensive place to find out.”

  25. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re:#23 & #24
    That is a great explanation of what a MACD is telling you. It is easy to fall into the habit of looking at indicators for buy and sell signals without really understand what the underlying message is.

    One question: In #24 you talk about “Having both M.MACDs (modified MACDs) on the chart” – I understand that one is your 20,50,1 modified MACD – but I am not clear what the other “longer term” modified MACD is that you are referring to.

    I like the quote at the end of #24 – oh so true.

  26. Ron/BC Says:


    The longer term Modified MACD is 50,200,1 and I add a 20ema on that M.MACD just to see the MACD black line cross the blue 20ema line. You don’t need the 20ema but at a glance it is helpful to determine the ‘turn’ that is so important. I use a 10ema with the 20,50,1 M.MACD. Doesn’t really matter what ema you use with them but it is easier to see the ‘change’ of the crossovers. Both Modified MACDs are very helpful and work well as most technical professionals and amateurs alike use those moving averages and “react and respond” to them. If you look at Weekly charts it is amazing how simple it is to catch a long term & even multi year trend all the way up with the uptrend and then all the way down again with the next major downtrend. Doesn’t get any prettier. Too bad I’m not that long term orientated. I am trying to evolve into longer term “trend” trading and waiting for some good setups that are oversold and reversing. Only the Utilities are oversold but I haven’t seen the M.MACD curl back up again. But having both M.MACDs on a chart will help with Daily and Weekly charts as one may be better than the other depending on the beta and volatility of the stock or ETF you are tracking. Every stock and ETF has a different character. And notice how price does not always follow the M.MACD down even when above the zero line. But I would exit on a negative cross even if price continued higher. Price does tend to fall or go sideways more often than higher with a falling M.MACD above the zero line. I don’t have the FOMO syndrome (FEAR OF MISSING OUT) so many have. I have no problem exiting and sitting on the sidelines baby sitting my cash like Scrooge did when in doubt. “When in doubt,get out” they say. You may miss a lot but you also get to keep what you already have. And a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

  27. antitrend Says:


    I have never used StockCharts, but it seems all that is being done is changing the inputs to 20-50-10 for one MACD and 50-200-20 for another MACD. You should be able to do that yourself with any brokerage or charting software you may have or use.
    The last number in the MACD is an EMA in many charting programs. But there are also many have it where you can use many other type avgs. in the MACD.
    StockCharts probably has info on what they use in their MACDs on their website.

  28. FishFat Says:

    Thanks Ron. I don’t know how I missed that. It is right there in the first line of #23. I think my subconscious brain converted 50,200,1 M.MACD to 20,50,1 M.MACD. The concept of using a combination of the two M.MACDs sounds useful – I will check it out.

    I use weekly chart almost exclusively to monitor stocks – the weekly charts eliminate a lot of noise and flutter. When the time to buy or sell is approaching I will take a look at the daily charts. And when executing the actual trade I use one minute charts.

  29. FishFat Says:

    Correct #27 – it should read “in the first line of #24”

  30. Sandra Says:

    PKI.TO has positive analyst report:

    Parkland is scheduled to report Q4/17 results March 1 after market close. We
    expect adjusted EBITDA to be ~20% above other published estimates. Crack
    spreads were very strong in 2017, and we believe that this continued in Q4,
    partially tempered by higher-cost inventory assumed on acquisition closing and
    turnaround planning/preparation costs. We are confident that Parkland will easily
    beat consensus, but a reasonable margin for error (+ or -) still exists.

  31. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC, FishFAt, all the numbers you are talking about are just going over my head.

    Please post me a Chart with your indicators ECA.TO please.

    By the way, smart or not – I am all out of Teck.b/TO. I do realize from your posts that stock can have divergences and be v. overbought and still go up. But I could not take the suspense. Went up 20 cts after that and then pulled a little.

    So, I am also looking for an entry point for Teck.b/TO now. Also want to add FM.TO, Ron/BC.

    Thanks for v enlightening posts this week.

  32. Ron/BC Says:

    The bottom of the chart shows two Modified MACDs. The longer term one on the bottom has signals that are smooth as silk with no whipsaws. I’ve marked that longer term M.MACD at the crossovers over its 20ema with heavy dotted lines. I use a 10ema on the shorter term M.MACD and a 20ema on the longer term M.MACD. Not important which ema you use as it just allows you to see crossovers easier to identify a change. So you see the heavy vertical dotted lines marking the crossovers over that longer term M.MACD EMA line. The bullish crossover in March 2016 rose smoothly and continued bullish for 11 months. It then crossed negatively in February 2017 and fell for 7 months until a positive crossover in September 2017. That is the easy,check the chart now and again and enjoy the ride up and then down trade. But with the longer term M.MACD don’t expect to catch price highs or price lows as they are made up of moving averages and are not as timely as short term indicators. The shorter term M.MACD gave the same story even with a different looking chart as it crossed above the zero line which means the stock was healthy and overall positive in spite of the zig zags. And when it fell below the zero line was bearish. It is more timely but it does whipsaw up and down across its 10ema often and would be a problem using it to trade short term on an erratic stock like Every stock has its own character and level of volatility. But you can ignore the zig zags with the shorter term M.MACD as long as it is above the zero line. The bottom line is these Modified MACDs are for “TREND” trading,not short term trading. There are oscillators and short term uptrendlines plus support and resistance lines for short term trading. Right now is right at a major price resistance area.

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