Tech Talk for Friday January 26th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 26th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 9 points in pre-opening trade.

U.S. equity indices were virtually unchanged following release of U.S. economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for fourth quarter real GDP was annual growth at 2.9%. Actual was 2.6%. Consensus for December Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.8% versus a gain of 1.3% in November. Actual was an increase of 2.9%. Excluding transportation, consensus for December Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 0.6% versus a decline of 0.1% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.6%.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of December Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus on a year-over-year basis was an increase of 1.9%, Actual was an increase of 1.9%.

Fourth quarter reports continue to pour in. Reports released since yesterday’s close included Colgate Palmolive, Honeywell, Intel, Rockwell Collins, Starbucks, AbbVie and Western Digital.

Starbucks dropped $2.95 to $57.60 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results.

Intel gained $$2.72 to $48.02 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly revenues and earnings. Target on the stock was raised by MKM Partners, SunTrust, RBC Capital and Stifel Nicolaus.

MMM added $0.24 to $252.60 after RBC Capital raised its target price to $254 from $240.

United Technologies (UTX $137.75) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus raised its target price to $146 from $127.

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/01/25/stock-market-outlook-for-january-26-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Dow Jones Transportation Average, New Home Sales, Canadian Retail Trade and Initial Jobless Claims

 

Observation

Gold moved above 1,362.40 per ounce to an 18 month high. ‘Tis the season for strength until the end of February!

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Wolf on Bay Street Radio Show

Don Vialoux is scheduled to be a guest on “Wolf on Bay Street” tomorrow (Saturday) between 7:00 AM and 8:00 AM EST on Toronto Radio 640. Host is Wolfgang Klein.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Breakouts: $COST $GIS $MKC $VAR. Breakdowns: $F $NWL $ALK $AVGO

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakouts include OI, RHI and KMB. Breakdown: PM

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Celestica $CLS.CA moved below $13.06 and $13.04 setting intermediate downtrend.

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Valeant Pharm $VRX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $24.25 completing a double top pattern.

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Platinum ETN $ PPLT moved above $97.18 extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength to April!

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TransCanada PipeLines $TRP.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $58.63 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Wheat ETN $WEAT has joined $CORN by completing a double bottom pattern. $JJG

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TSX Composite Index moved below 16,229.26 completing a double top pattern.

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#Retail trade in Canada ramped up ahead of the holidays, rising 3.6% (NSA) in November, 3.4% above average for month. #CDNecon #CAD $MACRO

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New Home Sales in the US down sharply in December, but still showing above average gain for the year, up 10.3%. #Housing #Economy $MACRO

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 25th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 25th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 25th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 0.40 to 83.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer plunged 8.26 to 54.96 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing signs of rolling over.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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46 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday January 26th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    TSX – Ominous looking bar on the chart for XIC yesterday. What do you call it? I guess “bearish engulfing”. Techtalk calls it a double top. The US market keeps on track going higher so I find it hard to believe the TSX will go in an opposite direction for any length of time. The Canadian energy sector that is pulling down the index despite a rising oil price. Materials stocks have also had a few days of weakness. Financials are fine. The point here which I keep making in this forum is that you have much better ability to make a profit in the US market. A rising $CAD has eroded some of the overall profit but you still come out ahead and you have so much more choice among an array of fantastic companies.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    GLD – Beware. Can someone a little more proficient than me have please comment on the chart? It gapped up two days ago and then had a bearish engulfing bar yesterday with this morning’s drop as confirmation that GLD peaked and is reversing.

  3. Dave/AB Says:

    Hi Larry

    Look at the real western select Oil price. that is why our O & G sector is doing poorly. We need to get our product to market.

    http://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/energy-statistics/real-time-oil-prices-wti-brent-wcs-energy-stocks

  4. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON:
    On TSX – BTE, CPG,ECA, Vale, HBM and CNQ-N all made daily engulfing bearish candles after Trump’s comment about USD.

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Sandra – On those companies I wouldn’t get too hung-up on bearish daily engulfing candles. You need something more meaningful to confirm a trend reversal like breaking a price channel. GLD is holding up contrary to my post #2. Something is wrong on BNN this morning. It shows gold down but GLD is up.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    GLD vs Feb Contract – GLD is up but Feb contract is down. Something going on contract expiration.

  7. Mick/NV Says:

    cnr.to got beaten up quite a bit after missing on earnings recently, price dropped below the s1 pivot point support into oversold territory on the rsi. They did raise their dividend though, 22nd year in a row. Always nice to be able to buy good quality companies when price takes a big drop. Don’t know whether this is a low or not, but if price can stabilize, this area looks like a nice entry point to buy. Already own, looking to add more here.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNR.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58802351046&a=450854173

  8. roy Says:

    Larry/ON -You are right. Im looking at my US and CDN holdings and notice a big difference in the returns for months now.

  9. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON:
    #5
    Thanks for ur comment. ECA.TO which I want to add is not holding too well yet. Looks like H&S forming on daily chart.

    For those interested n dividends
    On BNN today:
    01:00 PM – Canadian dividend stocks and protection strategies
    Greg Newman, Senior wealth advisor, director and portfolio manager, Scotia Wealth Management

    I was curious about his performance all his picks last year did really well. One think I like is he owns what he recommends.

  10. Paula Says:

    Sandra, you are right that ECA.TO looks like a H&S chart on the daily. But longer term, there seems to be a much larger H&S bottom on the weekly. Could even call it a Cup & Handle pattern. There is a lot of resistance ~ 18. It’s volatile, so could go down before continuing up.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72697784230&a=571057166

  11. Bobj Says:

    ihttps://marketsandresearch.td.com/tdwca/Markets/ExclusiveInsight?documentKey=867-37743359-0O07D64NIQ07UELE1DOOVOV2PM interesting comment from David Rosenberg today.

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    The $TSX Gold stock ETF:XGD.to continues to trade in a less than two dollar range for the last 6 months and is not responding to the Gold rally that started in July/16. Ok for trading bounces from day to day now and again but that seems to be about it.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XGD.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50389792950&a=475523461

  13. Sandra Says:

    Paula: Thanks! I am going to wait for Encana to sort out the H&S as I think it will come down more before it goes to $18.

    By the way, dividend stock PPL.TO Pembina is recommended by Greg Newman on BNN.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PPL.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44578932659&a=548155562
    Had lot of support and positive divergence but I am wandering if it will hold or will it go to $40? Hrly chart still shows it is in downtrend.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    EMA.to does seem to be following through with its bullish bar from yesterday and has poked its nose above $46.62 resistance. Need to see a close above this level and hold above to confirm. Might take a stab at it on a bullish close. Technicals are getting very bullish as well. Would have been better to see these Utility stocks come down and tag their support levels that are not that far below present prices. But it’s not over until the fat man sings. (politically corrected,lol).

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EMA.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51080582936&a=526551696

  15. Bernie Says:

    Sandra,

    Re: Greg Newman and other BNN guest analysts

    Newman isn’t a bad one although I hate that he mispronounces “Pembina” all the time…lol. You can see all BNN guest analyst’s prior comments on stockchase.com. Here is the link for all of Newman’s 1083 comments.
    https://stockchase.com/expert/view/1313

    P.S. Both of Thursdays guests recommended AMAT in their top 3. I liked their comments. Might be one to look at.

  16. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC #14
    Till the fat gentleman sings.(totally politically correct)

  17. Larry/ON Says:

    TXN – I have been accumulating the past three days after the drop and it is really perking up today. This is on of the most consistent growth stock in terms of growth in earnings that I have come across.

  18. Bernie Says:

    Sandra,

    AMAT chart, looks good!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMAT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61681929186

    Applied Materials(AMAT-Q)
    January 25, 2018

    “The world’s largest provider of manufacturing equipment, service and software to the global semiconductor industry. Beyond semiconductors, they are the leading supplier of manufacturing tools for flat-panel displays, LEDs, LCDs and OLDEs (a new thing), which will become foldable OLDEs in the future, and will lead to more demand for their products. Also, solar energy devices. Instead of trying to choose which semiconductor company will do the best, choose the one that supplies to all of them. The PC Internet era is maturing now, but now we are looking forward to the growth of mobile and social media usage. That will create demand for chips. Trading at 14X forward earnings with a 15% long-term growth rate, which is pretty cheap. Dividend yield of 0.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $68.50.)”

    “There are 4 big trends in tech. Big data, enhanced smart phone sales, the internet of things and artificial intelligence. They serve all these markets. He thinks it has a pretty reasonable multiple, and good growth. (Analysts’ target: $68.50).”

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    dutchcanuck
    NTR
    You are absolutely correct and I guess I should apologize with tears streaming down my cheeks for my inappropriate comment. I won’t be able to apologize as well as ‘you know who’ of course but then again I was never a drama teacher either. And the word fat should not have been used but rather ‘acceptably large gentleman’ would have been an appropriate,respectful and acceptable reference made. I shall re-think my boorish thoughtless mindset in the future. Perhaps way out in the future though.

  20. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC & dutchcanuck,

    I suggest “Till the circumferentially challenged gentleman sings”. 🙂

  21. Sandra Says:

    If someone was very very brisk … BBD.B

  22. Sandra Says:

    Paula: Re: 10 ECA.TO at important juncture. Is hugging the LBB.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA.TO&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p30943881995&a=573619955

  23. Larry/ON Says:

    TXN – Get it while you can! –

  24. Ron/BC Says:

    The XEG.to Energy ETF continues to underperform $WTIC since last July with price resistance at $12.90. Gotta see price clear and hold above $12.90 to suggest any further gains.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p36987861688&a=531757458

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    The $GOLD ETF:GLD bumped up against the September high of $128 and blew through it only to close on this double top. Price in the past has not respected previous highs or lows as support or resistance when tested. Even the uptrendline and downtredlines have been broken along the way. Price is erratic at best but has been in a bullish trend since April when the 50ema crossed the 200ema and has remained above despite all the ups and downs and currency changes. Price needs to clear and hold above $128 for starters and then clear and hold above the July 2016 high of $131. No real support on the way down that would suggest price would respect. Oddly enough $GOLD has been outperforming the Gold stocks. See post #12 for XGD.to chart etc.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35874711045&a=469156500

  26. Larry/ON Says:

    David Burrows -Twitter Jan 24
    “What started in June 2016, being noticed by a widening circle…reflation is a clear driver in asset prices around the world. The last rising rate cycle began in 1947, the next 10 years delivered -1% per year to bond investors and 19% per yr for equities”

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is an update from Oaken Financial. New rates of 2.5% for a one year GIC and 3.25% for a 5 year GIC. Will be nice to see double digit rates once again so those with a few bucks can finally make some interest income for a change. So far the rising uptrend does seem to be intact. Never hurts to have some cash locked into a GIC along with your other investments. You can buy one in your TFSA and not have to pay income tax on the interest income which would bump up the real return on a 5 year GIC at 3.25% to over 4%. Then again with rates on the rise I would not want to lock up money for long as rates will likely continue rising. A one year GIC is available now at 2.5% and a little longer GIC of 18 months pays 2.75& with no taxes either. Just one more place to park some cash but with a better return. A GIC can be used as collateral as well if looking for a loan.

    http://go.oaken.com/liftopen?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3vbLo-r22AIVmMBkCh3UUwrnEAAYASAAEgI0zvD_BwE

  28. Kam Says:

    Larry/ON,

    Gold futures settle at 10.30 am PST on CME even if it keep on trading afterwards. GLD keep on trading and close at 1.00 pm with market. So if GLD go up or down between 1030am-1.00pm, it will show up on GLD official close but not on GOLD close.
    Yesterday, Mr Fake News President opened his mouth regarding USD going up just after official closing time which tanked GOLD $16 to $1347 at 1.00PM. BNN must be showing GOLD close price using $1363 and GLD close price using 1pm time. Which make it look like something is up while its not.

  29. Paula Says:

    Kam, thanks for the explanation on the gold trading hours. I like your term “Mr Fake News President”. May I suggest that from now on that we use that to refer to the current president of the USA.

    Sandra, thanks for the 60 min ECA.TO chart. Yes, it is hugging the LBB and made a new low today (16.36, exactly S1) for this year; tested the low of 16.41 made near the beginning of the year but closed above at 16.44. And there is still an open gap made ~ December 27th. Maybe it wants to fill that gap. I have bought and sold this several times and am trying to be patient with it, keeping the longer term picture in mind.

  30. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: your #18 from Thurs.
    Sorry I forgot to reply back. I’m certainly no authority on dividend ETFs so I can’t say why they appear to track together on your charts. It may just be a short term thing especially with the high yielders which hold similar stocks. I don’t own any ETFs but if I did I’d prefer those that focused on dividend growth rather than on high dividends (quality over quantity). If I were buying I’d choose NOBL, DGRO and possibly VIG in the U.S. and PDC.TO in Canada. I used to like SPHD but have come to realize their holdings aren’t necessarily dividend growers. The stocks are rated and chosen for their low volatility and high dividend characteristics. This would explain why the fund dividends are so irregular and unpredictable. I prefer regular and predictable.

  31. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Due for another pull back, as the charts indicate.

    So how long will this last, a pull back then a few days of achieving new highs!

    I guess until it doesn’t.

  32. Larry/ON Says:

    US Q4 GDP Data Was Much Stronger Than Headline Number Suggests – Fridays reported 2.6% annualized growth rate was below expectations. The great news is that: Consumer Spending rose 3.8% for THE HIGHEST INCREASE SINCE LATE 2014; BUSINESS SPENDING ROSE 6.8% year over year. The good news was disguised by shrinking inventories and a rising trade deficit. What will happen is that production will accelerate in forward quarters due to low inventory.

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Thanks for the #30 post. Here is a chart of your selections. By the way PDC.to is at its support level. A break of $28.13 would likely see a further selloff perhaps to $27.50 but is also oversold presently. Not a lot of volume on PDC.to. I put on the SPY and IWO which is the Russell 2000 Growth ETF to compare them all. I’ve been considering the IWO for awhile now as well.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDC.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94175964035&a=573823812

  34. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a long term chart of the U.S.10 Year Treasury Yield that determines so many other interest rates. The chart shows a huge Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern that has just broken out over the 2016 high and is at a 3 year high now. The chart projects a rally the depth of the Head to the neckline which would be a rally to 39. Interest rates of all kinds will be affected and much higher. Won’t happen overnight but if one wants to make a guaranteed investment for a great real return on their money then pay down any debt you have now as rates should continue to rise. Next resistance is 30 and after that 39.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94519053657&a=547879322

  35. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    My view as a DGI…
    If I were buying PDC I see the recent dip as a good opportunity to purchase a position in a quality Canadian dividend ETF that had run up too much in price. For those concerned over further price drops I’d suggest buying a partial position and layering in. I definitely wouldn’t buy a full position in any of the U.S. ETFs shown on your chart but might layer in small positions. The prices are too lofty for my liking.

    FYI: The chart looks quite different if you increase to a long time frame. For example from June 2014 to current. DGRO was incepted in 2014.

  36. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Here is PDC.to from June 2014 as suggested. Yes,PDC.to has pulled back to the Nov low support and is very oversold looking at the RSI 8. One could even say with the higher RSI 8 low that is a positive divergence and bullish overall and should be bought here at $28.13. That might be good for my TFSA too. I’m not impressed yet with the very oversold Utility stocks and ETFs. With higher rates ahead they don’t look like the place to be. And with the U.S.government officials talking about liking a lower U.S.$ for the first time in history perhaps the Commodities are where to be. I do like the IWO though and it has been impressive. I wonder being a Russell Growth ETF if it has a lot of high dividend stocks within it. Or perhaps it doesn’t matter if it is a totally growth ETF. Beyond my expertise. But it has an impressive track record relative to everything else. I’ll watch this PDC.to but am not that happy with the longer M.MACD indicator curling down recently. The slower M.MACD 20,50,1 is just touching its zero line and if the trend remains bullish it will curl up off that zero line. So that indicator isn’t a worry yet. Just need to see it curl up soon. They are much slower to signal as they are ‘trend’ indicators and not just short term indicators like oscillators so are slower to signal. Will watch it like a hawk meanwhile. Not happy with the low volume on PDC.to either for getting in and out if it fails. Always something to be concerned about. Overall I’m very concerned about the extreme levels of enthusiasm with the broad market and that type of behaviour never lasts. But meanwhile if the fish are biting I guess a guy needs to put their line in the water and to hell with the storm coming.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDC.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p09212822657&a=573823812

  37. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    RE:#36 correction.
    Here is the PDC.to chart going back to June 2014 as the one I posted on #36 was shorter.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PDC.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p58734626545&a=573823812

  38. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC & Bernie
    Ron, thank you for the 10yr TNX chart. It clearly shows 2 events. Event #1(2013/14) the taper tantrum where the Fed announced the gradual decrease of quantitative easing and event #2(2016) where the Fed announced that they would start to withdraw the quantitative easing. Both events show that interest rates rise when credit is being restricted. The bond market had one heck of a run for about 30+ years where rates went down and that has been reversed. It could very well be that the bond market will go in the other direction for a prolonged period of time. That means bond prices go lower and rates go higher. Most investors have not lived thru such a prolonged cycle and cannot visualize what happens to div stocks. As bond interest rates rise the big money will shift from bond proxies such as div stocks back to bonds.Only a recession or calamitous event will change that direction. If you must have div stocks make sure they are growth stocks that pay a dividend.

  39. dutchcanuck Says:

    Does anyone own PAT.V Patriot Technology. Apparently they manufacture detection devices which are used at airports etc. Apparently they came out with a brand new platform that is best of breed. Stock has almost doubled on the news.
    Neil/AB, this the the kind of stock you might own???

  40. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Here is a long term chart I made years ago to watch the long term trend in the 10 year rate. Historically 30 years is about as long as a trend lasts in rates. Time for a change which will typically catch so many up to their ears in debt. I still think paying down debt is about the best investment one could made now. I was also wondering which sector would fair better: The growth ETF:IVW or the Value ETF:IVE,or neither…..

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&st=1980-01-01&id=p09869876537&a=330195423

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IVW%3AIVE&p=D&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76683511104&a=537826284

  41. Larry/ON Says:

    US Dollar Decline and SP500 Advance Are Co-Related – This may not be news for many but I thought I would put this out there to think about. Obviously the decline in USD is great for US exports and is great for US company ex-US profits when denominated in USD. Commodity prices will rise in USD terms. The 2017 decline in USD was the worst since 2003. In 2003 the SP500 rose 28.68% and in 2004 it rose 10.88%. Forecasts for the SP500 for 2018 are in the same range of 10-11% but we are already more than half-way there. I think the forecasts were too conservative as earnings growth is going to be tremendous due to tax cuts and overall economic growth.

  42. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC & dutchcanuck

    Re: #36-38
    I highly doubt the Russell Growth ETF has much dividend stock content in it. For sure there wouldn’t be any high yielders in there as those kind of stocks tend to be low growth. I’ve never personally invested in this space and wasn’t in the market during the last prolonged period of rising interest rates. I’ve heard small cap does outperform the broad market over the long term but the ride is quite rough.

    Dutch’s suggestion of going with growth stocks and growth dividend stocks, if you must have a dividend, sounds reasonable. There are a few dividend stocks that have grown their dividends for over 40 consecutive years, 66 of them in the U.S. and 2 in Canada, so they would have raised at least during the tail end of the last rising rate period. In those days though they would have been called growth stocks that happened to pay a dividend. 20% of them were utility stocks, 30% were consumer stocks. Many of these long time growers are in NOBL.

  43. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC, Re your words: “Overall I’m very concerned about the extreme levels of enthusiasm with the broad market and that type of behaviour never lasts. But meanwhile if the fish are biting I guess a guy needs to put their line in the water and to hell with the storm coming.” I have felt this way for a long time (more than a year at least) BUT, the market continues up. I find it very hard to buy at these levels, especially, something I sold and watch it continue on its merry way up and away. For an asset class that seems to be just turning around after a long bear market, Commodities may offer some longer term potential, especially with a declining USD. John Murphy is talking about the CRB having a bullish breakout with a two year high. In the past, we have talked about XME, DBB and some other ETFs. Currently I am following COPX and XBM.TO. I am waiting for a short term pullback to get back into both of these.

    If anyone reads the commentary on StockCharts, Arthur Hill and Julius de Kempenaer are strongly advising against Utilities and Real-Estate, even though they are very oversold. The trend on these is definitely down. At least this makes sense if the downward trend in interest rates is finally broken to the upside after ~ 35 years.

    Larry, I meant to mention on Friday, that I have followed TXN for years, bought and sold many times; had it called away in November. I hesitated to buy on dip to around 95 in December and watched it zoom up to ~ 120. I did buy on Wednesday when it gapped down after earnings disappointment on Tuesday, after the bell;it may take some time to fill in the gap. At least I bought INTC on the recent bad chip news, so had a full position when it gapped on Friday.

    Does any one watch the weekly podcasts by Chris Ciovacco that Tawny recommended some time ago? I find him excellent for a long term perspective. Here is his new website:

    https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes

    Last week (January 19th), at the very end on the video, there were some quotes from Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize winner and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow. They were not read out loud, so have to see them. I believe Niel/Ab read the book. It took me a long time to read the book, LOL. I went out and bought another copy to pass around to my kids. There now seem to be free PDFs available to download on line. Here is a link to a summary of his ideas:

    https://1nodld1ltmqu3jimmy2xsgcu-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/ThinkingFastandSlow.pdf

  44. Neil/Ab Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Re: Patriot
    Tough question…I don’t own it, I have been casually following it for quite a while. It is beginning to look more interesting here. I tend to prefer smalls/micros with a bit more history (Pat.v though it has been around a while has essentially only traded meaningfully for a year or so) and at least a reasonable anticipation of profitability. From what little I understand, the technology is good, maybe even game changing, and they are starting to sell some units with a growing backlog. Now, as I see it, they have to hurdle installations, make sure all works as advertised etc. all the while hoping there really is and remains a sustainable market and that folks remain paranoid enough to want to buy the product.
    It is looking interesting from a technical perspective in that though its recent run has sent it into ‘overbought’ territory, and it is getting stretched from its 50ma it is basically right at resistance from previous highs with a decent cup formation over the last several months.
    Thanks for mentioning it, I will watch it more closely now, a break and hold over $2 with the news and momentum behind it could
    Bring me in for a small, probably short term and obviously risky position.
    5I recently mentioned that they have been warming to the story as management have been doing a good job of delivering.

  45. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    The broad market is the most overbought in history from just about every way measurable according to most analysts data. And we all know what happens when things go parabolic as it ends badly for those holding longs. But I’ll trade what I see and haven’t seen much as pullbacks have been few. I don’t have a problem with that as I learned many years ago not to be a trading junkie. Very easy to get caught up in that so it pays to stand aside for awhile to get a better perspective. It’s like fishing,the fish are always there. And whether you trade a stock from $20 to $30 then you trade it from $50 to $80 or from $100 to $120. It really doesn’t matter as it’s all relative. Nothing to get excited about.
    As far as the Utility stocks go I’ve posted many of them here and my point has always been that yes they are very oversold and I have been waiting for a buy signal but none have come. I did buy T.to that was outperforming most of them including FTS.to and BCE.to as it broke above its short downtrendline which is the first step in a reversal and then price poked its nose above $47 breakdown point a couple of times so I got onboard. But after about 5 days of doing this over and over again and not seeing other Utility stocks breakout I dumped T.to the last time it ran up to over $47 and was glad to exit roughly where I got in. But rather than buying or selling on fundamentals such as the trend of interest rates I go by the charts as there are too many variables with fundamentals to consider. And a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. And there is always a weak link. As far as commodities go most of the rally has been due strictly due to the U.S.$ decline. First time in history that top government officials have said it’s good to have a falling dollar. See,anything can happen & that’s why the charts will lead the way. And with the speculative traders extremely short the U.S.$ and extremely long the Euro and extremely long Oil I won’t be betting on this trend to continue. But I’ll believe what I see and the charts will give me a better idea of what to do. I don’t have to drawn any solid conclusions. But at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised to see a major reversal in most markets and a recession to begin either due to the stretched out nature of so many markets. No one out there would believe that now and that concerns me. And Trump isn’t the first person to reduce interest rates. Ronald Regan and G.Bush both did this and the market sold off after it became law. The market reflects future results, not the reality of when it actually happens.

  46. Kam Says:

    Ron/BC,

    That 10yr interest rate chart is worth thousand words. All it is telling people to deleverage going forward. But we humans are part of a herd mentality like animals as we came from there. We do what others do. Lots of people in their 20’s or even 30’s now who have always seen and thought that one can take money off their house and go to Mexico or buy expensive cars as the interest rate is very low but they have not( I haven’t either) seen the other side of the puzzle.
    I have talked to my co-workers who are mostly younger to pay off their loans or condos than buying a new car, as going with the interest rate cycle of 30-40 yrs, most ‘might’ face increasing interest rates rest of their life until they retire. Some, who know that I trade, might listen, some don’t as they are part of the herd.

    Hard to say what will happen to Divi stocks as I haven’t seen it either but common sense will say that if rates end up in 4-5% yr range, why would I care to buy these dividend payers and have a chance to lose my money in case stock drop? However, I don’t know if I am right to that conclusion as I usually don’t invest in them.

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