Tech Talk for Friday February 2nd 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday February 2nd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 22 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were dipped lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for January Non-farm Payrolls was 176,000 versus upwardly revised 160,000 in December. Actual was 200,000. Consensus for January Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1%. Actual was unchanged at 4.1%. Consensus for January Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in December. Actual was a gain of 0.3%.

Alphabet dropped $41.69 to $1139.90 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter results. Stifel Nicolaus downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.

Apple gained $1.12 to $168.90 after release better than consensus quarterly earnings.

Amazon jumped $86.00 to $1476.00 after releasing higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues. Oppenheimer, Susquehanna, RBC Capital, JP Morgan and Wedbush raised their target price on the stock.

Merck added $0.24 to $60.10 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter operating earnings.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/02/01/stock-market-outlook-for-february-2-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Non-Farm Payrolls, Initial Jobless Claims and Construction Spending.

Observation

The long term Treasury ETF dropped below $121.40 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Open Text $OTEX, a TSX 60 stock moved above $35.80 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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AT&T $T, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $38.81 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Mixed. Breakouts: $NLSN $CCI, $T. Breakdowns: $HRL, $HSY, $CHK $ALXN

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, another 10 stocks broke intermediate support and two stocks (IR and AON) broke resistance

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 1st 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 1st 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 1st 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped another 2.00 to 73.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending down

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped another 2.47 to 35.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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25 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday February 2nd 2018”

  1. dutchcanuck Says:

    …and another Canadian gem bites the dust. Avigilon AVO.TO has a takeover bid from Motorola. This Vancouver based leading security camera and data analytics company is a rising star. I plan to vote against the offer as the offer is too low. Pobably won’t mean much, butttt.

  2. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW today:

    “Last week’s low in the Dow was 2597465. A closing today beneath that level will confirm the January high and we should see a pull back to retest the critical support. The Weekly Bearish Reversals begin at the 24741 area down to 24696 area. If we can close beneath them quickly, then a sharp correction is likely into early March.

    The critical decision for the market will come the week of February 19th. At that point we will begin to see the market determine the direction for a move ahead. From the week of March 12th we should then see a trend unfold.

    As long as the January high stands, then we should see a March low. This correction has the major underlying support on the monthly level which begins back at 22410. So it will be a question of TIME and PRICE. Falling back to that level in early March and holding, may be an excellent entry point. Of course, if we penetrate that level before March, then we are looking at the 21600 area.

    REMEMBER – It is ALWAYS the TIME that overrules the price.”

  3. Tawny Says:

    Sherri
    Thanks for the info on your post of Jan. 31 … not sure if this was the Private Blog post on The Dow and the Possible Consolidation released Jan 31 morning. At any rate there is a new one out this morning – The Dow and Breaking the Bull Market. Than you for all the sharing.

  4. Sherri Says:

    They are the same posts, I’m just not posting them with the titles in them.

  5. Neil/Ab Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    I agree and intend to do the same if I can.

  6. tony Says:

    for an unknown reason for the last few months i’ve been receiving junk emails from crypto trader

    until yesterday all the emails were positive on crypto currency. Today its run for the hill
    while I been seeing this as a bad trade about almost a month now

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    There are two blogs today on this site. I wonder why they do this.

    Mick.nv
    N T R
    See the other Feb 2 blog here.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    They are blaming rising rates for this sell off. Rates didn’t just start rising today. The markets have been signalling trouble for weeks now. Seems like many decided to go over the waterfall.

  9. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC
    Ntr

    I didn’t notice the other Friday blog, odd that they have two.
    Regardless, I think you will enjoy Palm Springs, the airport is essentially an open air airport, you will see what I mean as you come in., maybe more so when you leave . You might see an odd looking house up in the hills as you arrive or even as you leave the airport, that was Bob Hope’s old home, there is a nice hiking trail that goes up past the house, worth the hike in my opinion, will do it again when I return. Lots of golf courses so you should enjoy playing, I don’t golf anymore so can’t give you a recommendation on which course to try but I am sure you can get info from where you are staying. Some of the nice places to eat are Spencer’s ( a bit pricey but good food) , john Henry’s ( when I was there last year their small parking lot was full of cars from BC) and the Fisherman’s Market and Grill, there are many other places that you can try like the Kaiser Grill, Shanghai Reds, too many to mention. If you looking to buy food, Ralphs or Vonns are good grocery stores and of course Trader Joe’s out towards Cathedral City. If you are looking for some golf equipment and clothing, try Pete Carlson’s in Palm Desert, bought some tennis clothing there last year and will go by again this year . Have a great time, weather should be nice and warm

  10. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong DOW latest – close today:

    “There always has to be some excuse for a move and today is no exception. All of a sudden with strong economic numbers, SH’BAM it becomes an OMG moment that interest rates might rise? They just have to come up with something. The simple truth is this is also 17.2 weeks up into last week which was also perfectly aligned with the individual timing models in this market along with the 8.6 frequency. January has been our target for months now so it was simply time. People will assign a variety of fundamentals because they have to try to explain something that was caused by simply running out of time. Nothing more! The stock market rises with higher rates so just put that nonsense aside.

    The closing today below last week’s low confirm the correction and that was 25974.65. Currently, we are trading at 3:08 at 25556. Unless we close BELOW 24741, then we have still not created any major damage. The major support remains in the mid 24000 level. So only electing Weekly Bearish will imply a more serious correction.

    Be careful. We may not even see follow-through to the downside next week just yet. Our THIRD Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 25308. To see follow-through to the downside next week we need to elect that Reversal today. If we close beneath this number then we will test the weekly level of 24741 aan IF THAT GIVES WAY, THEN YES WE CAN SEE follow-through.

    Monday is a turning point and a Directional Change. We see choppiness and a consolidation pattern into February. Volatility will pick up again from the week of February 12th into March where we have weekly panic cycles coming into play. Do not forget we have the Italian election in March and they are not very happy with the EU either.

    This is a Panic Cycle Year – so get use to the craziness.

    For now, the first line in in the 24000 level and then we have the monthly support in the mid 22000 area. Don’t go getting all crazy right now. Play it by the numbers. 25308 is the number to watch today for the close. A closing above 25812 today will also indicate that sell-off is subsiding.”

  11. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri….

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    Thanks for #9 post. I will print it off and put it in my suitcase this time. Leaving Monday through Sunday. I see the temperature is projected to be averaging 86 degrees through this time frame with zero precipitation. Looking forward to going there.
    By the way I see FTS.to pulled back to support today and unlike many stocks never broke support. Very impressive relatively on a day like today. Same with T.to. Still hasn’t pulled all the way back to important price support.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FTS.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45318310733&a=505251651

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61025131651&a=502812062

  13. Neil/Ab Says:

    Sherri
    I’m really reluctant to post this because I know that not only you but many others here are Armstrong followers, and I am neither an Armstrongian nor particularly bright, but when I read, “the simple truth is that this is 17.2 weeks up into last week which was also perfectly aligned with the individual timing models within this market along with the 8.6 frequency”. I cannot help but wonder how something that makes no apparent sense to a reasonably intelligent individual can be a ‘simple truth’. It is probably just that I don’t understand his ‘models’ or his evasive yet convenient use of the English language.
    But, please don’t get me wrong please continue to post his comments. Many like them and even I enjoy the read. But, continue to ask yourself, did I really understand what he was saying? Did it really make any sense?

  14. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thanks for the charts in #12, May just add a bit more fts.to next week.

    Ntr

    Last year we stayed near the Indian Canyons Golf Club , I believe it is a public course, there is a nice walking path that goes along the golf course, if you have a chance have a walk along it and pop into the club house to get some info on the course, you might like to give that course a try.

  15. Wayne Says:

    Re: TA.TO
    Just noticed that it closed at 6.66 on Friday. Isn’t that the sign of Satan?? Could be a buying point. HA!!

  16. bruce Says:

    Wayne
    the dj closed down 666 on Friday…….the low for the s&p in 2009 was 666……..hmmmm……

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV

    NTR

    Re:#14.Thanks again I’ll check it out. We got a place right in town not that far from the airport so everything is handy. Used VRBO -HomeAway Group. I guess they are the best to deal with all things considered. But I do think I’ll check with some other places to find a good deal on accommodation in the future. I’m sure there are some privately owned condos or suites there that would be very reasonable to rent rather than dealing with an organization where everyone gets a piece of the action. If a person could get a good two to four week rental privately they could stay much longer and go far more often without it costing an arm and a leg each time. The cost of accommodation seems to be the biggest cost of the travel plan and we basically just sleep there and are exploring the area during the day. Perhaps even a motel would be less. The only thing on the FTS.to and T.to charts in post #12 that concern me now with prices holding up so well is the lower indicators. Would like to see them start to curl up to be convincing. They are trend indicators so are not instant like the oscillators so will be slower to catch a turn.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne/Bruce NTR

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxf_Dvy0VLs

  19. Bernie Says:

    Wayne,

    Wasn’t Satan a hockey player?

  20. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC

    Ntr

    We used homeaway also, the place this year is a condo, upper floor, last year we had a townhouse, same area though, very near the golf course I mentioned above, cost is a little over 3k u.s. for the month. It’s actually hard to get a place for just a month, most owners want to rent for at least 3 months ( Jan thru March). I suspect you are renting a car, if so enjoy the area, I hope you have a great time. Not sure on your flight from Victoria, probably thru yvr , always a big lineup getting thru security, will be at the airport at least 3 hours before flight, must be the trump effect, may just make it to the plane on time

  21. dutchcanuck Says:

    Has President BullRoar taken credit yet for Friday’s drop in the market?

  22. rocketdave Says:

    It makes a lot of sense now, after reading Keith’s comment’s at Valuetrend.
    I want to get into the market but a lot of stocks look over bought and most have hit resistance and turned back down. So i think i’ll sit back a couple of weeks and see where things are at than.

  23. Neil/Ab Says:

    Tsx
    Interesting that there hasn’t been much comment on our little correction of late.
    As I see it, from the chart, we are pretty much at a significant point. Looking at a three year chart, we are right at trendline support from Feb 2016, plus the support of the 200ma, which we just hit, and are right around significant 3 year lateral support. So, a break below this level would be fairly significant. Next major lateral support would be around 1500. But if the support here can’t hold it is hard to imagine the 1500 would, So, I would think, if something doesn’t happen soon to quell the selling, and I can’t imagine what that might be, it could get very ugly very fast.

  24. Wayne Says:

    Bernie,
    Nah.. he was a chef in Hell’s Kitchen.

    Bruce,
    Absolutely. I remember it well. 666 was the low – that’s when buyers re-entered the market. Legions of Satan rescued the market. HA!!

    Ron/BC – been getting this commercial a lot on my options page…

  25. rocketdave Says:

    Neil/Ab

    I think you’re on to something. It’s been a long run and it would not faze me if the markets did dip much lower than where it is now.
    1500 is probably not out of the question. If it closes lower than 15600 on Friday, than i think we are in for a ride.

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