Tech Talk for Tuesday February 13th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday February 13th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 8 points in pre-opening trade.

AmerisourceBergen gained $12.00 to $101.45 on reports that Walgreen is in discussions to take over the company.

ADT added $0.37 to $13.05 after RBC Capital initiated coverage with an Outperform rating. Target is $16.

Under Armour jumped $1.12 to $14.30 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter revenues.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/02/12/stock-market-outlook-for-february-13-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Utility sector, U.S. REIT Index and Canada Employment.

 

Observations

Nice bounce by broadly based U.S. equity indices from their 200 day moving average!

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Josef Schachter on BNN’s Market Call Today

Following are links to Josef’s appearance yesterday:

https://www.bnn.ca/video/josef-schachter-s-top-picks~1324733 Top Picks

https://www.bnn.ca/video/josef-schachter-s-past-picks~1324697 Past Picks

https://www.bnn.ca/video/josef-schachter-s-market-outlook~1324682 Market Outlook

Josef offered a bullish case for Canadian “gassy” stocks. He noted that a drop in U.S. inventories below the 1 trillion cubic foot level during the next couple of weeks due to colder than average weather in Eastern U.S. states could trigger a short term surge in natural gas prices and natural gas stock prices. As indicated in the chart below, inventories recently set 5 year lows for this time of year.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Surprisingly, no S&P 500 stocks broke intermediate support or resistance yesterday.

Aecon Group $ARE.CA moved below $19.13 on news that the Canadian government is reviewing its takeover by a Chinese company.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 12th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 12th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 12th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer gained 7.60 to 25.80 yesterday. Nice bounce from a deeply oversold level! More technical evidence is needed to confirm a bottom.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer gained 4.84 to 17.96 yesterday. Nice bounce from a deeply oversold level. More technical evidence is needed to confirm a bottom.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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26 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday February 13th 2018”

  1. bruce Says:

    Hi Sherri
    Armstrong has another private blog again this morning if you would be so kind…tu…

  2. Tawny Says:

    Sherri, Thanks so much for yesterday on Armstrong and look forward to this mornings… really appreciated.

  3. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong Feb 13:

    “On Friday, we bounced off of the third Weekly Bearish Reversal and elected two minor Weekly Bullish. Previously, we warned that we saw consolidation rather than a continued collapse.
    What is most interesting is that the Global Market Watch on the yearly level has actually picked the high and warned of a waterfall. Then after the close of Friday, it changed on the Quarterly Level still calling it an important high and the Yearly to New Higher Possible.

    Clearly, the current price action is significant to be changing the dynamic quarter to yearly pattern analysis.

    In the new Share Market Report what is laid out is just how critical a crossroads we have reached here with a January high in 2018. We have laid out the points to confirm a slingshot up or a crash and then a swing back up. There is no question that we will see new highs again. The next entry point will be critical to catch”

    More helpful if you can see his charts and have read his 2018 report

  4. Tawny Says:

    Sherri, Thanks for #3. Quesiton … the last line
    More helpful if you can see his charts and have read his 2018 report
    Did you write the above or was this in the blog?

  5. Rol Lew Says:

    13 feb 18 – predictions, hopes, forecasts, guesses & fears about the future

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY9-QVoYVIs&feature=youtu.be&t=17

  6. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri……

  7. Mick/NV Says:

    Picked up some ema.to this morning as price dropped below the Feb/Mar 2016 lows, analysts are cutting the target price on this stock yet still have buy or outperform ratings, go figure. Yields now close to 5%, lots of upside in price in my opinion, but looks like one will need to have some patience.

    http://schrts.co/aM2AS4

  8. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC: Looking at stocks for my dividend acct.
    FTS.TO, EMA.TO , EIF.TO, getting slaughtered again today. Where do you see an entry point?

    As per Mortley Fool: Fortis Inc. (TSX:FTS)(NYSE:FTS) is another great long-term investment with plenty of upside.

    Fortis has expanded over the past few years to become one of the largest utilities on the continent, with a mix of customers that now spans well into the U.S. as well as into several Caribbean islands.

    Fortis is often branded as the stereotypical boring investment that lacks growth. That couldn’t be further from the truth, as Fortis has grown significantly over the years thanks to several great acquisitions. Those acquisitions have and continue to provide annual growth to Fortis, which is currently forecasted at 6% over the next few years.

    In terms of a dividend, Fortis offers an impressive 4.08% yield and a superior record of dividend growth that boasts consecutive annual increases that span over four decades, which is one of several reasons this is a great buy-and-forget holding.

  9. Sandra Says:

    Sherri:
    Thanks for Armstrong posts!

  10. Sandra Says:

    Mick/NV:
    EMA.TO ex-div tomorrow.

  11. Sandra Says:

    TD webBroker users:

    Is advanced dashboard working for you today? Mine is not.

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    The $TSX tested the 14900 support being the fall 2017 low. Price could not hold above the major breakout point of 15750. The selloff has been very fast & price is very oversold. A break below 14900 would suggest a testing the Fibonacci retracment levels. A Fib 38.2% retracment would be considered a mild and typical pullback. The point is, looking at most significant selloffs it takes MONTHS not days to “complete” a pullback. Bounces off recent lows would be typical but not likely the beginning of a new uptrend. Bottom line:Expect a lot of sideways price action. I guess if you buy and hold stocks just for the dividend it really doesn’t matter much where prices go. With stock prices reaching the heights they did and the length of time of this bull market along with the boom in housing prices my guess is we are far closer to a major downturn and a recession in most markets than most believe possible.

    The $SPX is testing its two year uptrendline at 2625. Like many markets the $SPX is very oversold. The lower trend indicators are still positive but have rolled over on the selloff. Technicals are much stronger with the $SPX than the $TSX. I see Stockcharts has a different way to link a chart now. All these technical products today including computers and cell phones seem to ignore the tried and true saying of “If it ain’t broke,don’t fix it.”

    http://schrts.co/Xagyu1

    http://schrts.co/ovUYM2

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Mick/NV
    NTR
    I called Tangerine yesterday and they renewed my promo interest rate again on cash for 90 days at 2.50%. Oddly enough my partner’s daughter and partner who opened an account a year ago after selling their home and got a good promo rate at that time could not get the promo rate renewed. Don’t know why but they did start building a new home so perhaps didn’t have that much cash in their account now. I don’t’ know if it matters how much you have in there. They did ask me if I’d move my money if I couldn’t get the promo rate and I said I’d move every dime immediately. That may have helped. By the way I did check out Palm Springs places you mentioned. Did not go to Spencer’s as I don’t “dine in the finest of circles”,lol. Too expensive for me to swallow. But we enjoyed our time there and would go for a month next time. We rented part of a beautiful home with a pool but the owners let us have the entire house as they left themselves for a couple of weeks. Car rentals at Alamo’s were very reasonable too. You must really like the heat as it was hitting over 90* and getting hotter. Next month when you said you’ll go will likely be hotter yet but was told it was warmer than normal for February. Oddly enough we never did get to golf but I can golf here now on most any dry day so didn’t care that much. And I’m not that fussy where I golf. The 9 hole courses here are fine for a hacker like myself.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Always liked this movie.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPZn4rbiB8g

  15. Mick/NV Says:

    Ron/BC
    NTR

    Glad you had a good time, looks like you got a good deal on where you stayed also. Hope you got in some good walks , can’t do everything in a week, maybe golf next time.
    Was checking the temps, into the 90’s some days, will be that most days I am there also, last year I believe it averaged around 90 – 95 . I don’t mind the heat, you actually get used to it.
    I will go to Spencer’s once while I am there, some people get dressed up for it, for me, just shorts, sandals and clean shirt. There will also be a big tennis tournament at Indian Wells so will take that in although getting into the grounds is like going thru security at the airport, how the world has changed.

  16. dutchcanuck Says:

    Mick/NV #7
    Like you, I picked up some more EMA.TO today. Their Q4 operating earnings were 64c which was in the range of expectations. The writedowns were tax related and one time.This move will add to future earnings. One of the faster growing utilities around.

  17. dutchcanuck Says:

    Sold half of my TECK/B today and added EMA.TO and BB.TO.
    Also bought out of the money Sept QQQ calls.

  18. Sandra Says:

    dutchcanuck, Mick/NV : I too picked up EMA.TO.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    T.to like many markets pulled back to support with this stock being $44.70. It has been outperforming BCE.to and FTS.to along with others as well. Price did close at the lows of the day and must hold here or will breakdown and selloff to lower levels. Lower trend indicators are still falling at the same rate with the 20ema below the 50ema. But unlike oscillators trend indicators are not as timely with oversold and buy signals but catch larger swings in trend later. Right now the big test is for T.to is to hold above present levels or will see a further selloff. This applies to many stocks out there testing price supports. All these tests at support must hold or another broad selloff will occur. The selloff has been a matter of days not weeks or months like most corrections so to expect a big rebound ahead that holds up is very optimistic. Odds favour sideways to lower.

    http://schrts.co/EAAhJ6

  20. Neil/Ab Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    Versabank
    No, don’t own it. In fact, have only recently heard of it. Got to say, it looks pretty darn good. Some very quick initial fundamental research shows that 5i have become quite positive on it and T/Reuters rate it 9/10. Thanks for mentioning it, I’ll certainly look into it some more.

  21. Sherri Says:

    #4 Tawny

    Those are my comments at the end. I always put what Armstrong says in quotation marks.
    I can’t post the graphs, charts, or what he says would make a little more sense sometimes, not ALL the time 🙂

  22. mary Says:

    Another DOW perspective…. Would someone be so kind to interpret. My understanding we go to 25300…then either to 22000 or 20000.

    Dow update

     February 13, 2018

    dow feb 13 2018 2

    Roughly speaking the above picture represents our preferred interpretation. It is an initial 5-wave leg down of about 3200 points. We are presently well into the first rebound which , at 62% would carry this wave 2 to 25300 or so. That is also where a 4th wave of previous degree resides. Obviously this wave 2 could go even higher. It should take the form of an a-b-c but if a wave b it could also resemble a triangle.

    Then a second bear leg down should start, a wave C or 3. If equal to the first (in the case where it is a C) that would take us to about roughly 22000. However if it is a wave 3 – the more likely scenario at this juncture – a 1.62X ratio is sort of a minimum, 5120 points – it would target close to 20000. more or less where the supposed Trump rally started. After that there would still be 4 and 5 to go for a first wave!

    The reason why I am inclined to think that this might be THE top is that all the talk is about Bitcoin and weeds. Bitcoin I do not understand and in any event it has already lost 70% or so. Weeds you could buy in Amsterdam, my alma mater, already 50 years ago if you cared to do so – I didn’t by the way- so I am not sure what the fuss is all about except that the administration in the US may want to keep their beautiful prisons filled. They already have the highest rate of incarceration, two or three times the norm for a civilized democracy – in the world, 70+% of which is drug related, talk about MAGA.

    Time will tell.

    image

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  23. dutchcanuck Says:

    Neil A/b #20

    Here’s what I gleaned sofar re VB. Virtual branchless bank based in London Ontario.
    P/E 9.33 Div.51% paid quarterly.
    Earnings CGR 50% Interest margin 2.68%
    5 star GlobeInvestor rating. Canada wide network.
    Chart shows breakout at $6.00
    Well known and respected management.

    Do not own it (yet)

  24. dutchcanuck Says:

    BV div = .51% in #23

  25. Ana Says:

    $VIX

    Contango is – 21.41% which is backwardation.

  26. Kam Says:

    Ana,

    VIX
    That price is deceiving. It is only 4% backwardation. That one is expired. At EW, VIX expert thinks a collapse is coming, most likely tomorrow, in Vix.

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