Tech Talk for Wednesday February 28th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday February 28th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 2 point in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the second estimate for real U.S. fourth quarter GDP growth. Consensus was a slip to 2.5% from the first estimate at 2.6%. Actual was growth at a 2.5% rate.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of the Federal Government budget after the close yesterday.

Valeant dropped $1.35 to $17.15 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter results. The company also lowered its 2018 guidance.

National Bank (NA $63.72 Cdn) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.

Office Depot gained $0.03 to $2.93 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.

Macy’s added $0.54 to $28.94 after RBC Capital and Cowen raised their target price on the stock.

Lowe’s dropped $7.29 to $88.50 after announcing lower than consensus fourth quarter results.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/02/27/stock-market-outlook-for-february-28-2018/

Note seasonality charts on U.S. International Trade Imports, U.S. International Trade Exports, Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index and Capital Goods Orders.

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Breakouts: $M $SNI $BF.B $AJG, $AFL, $NTRS $RF $SRE $INTC. Breakdowns: $CMCSA $PRGO.

Editor’s Note: After 10:15 AM EST, breakouts included BAC and FITB. Breakdowns included ORLY, AZO, BWA and HOG

Intel $INTC, a Dow Jones Industrial stock, moved above $50.51 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Toronto Dominion Bank $TD.CA, a TSX 60 stocks moved above $75.09 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Semiconductor ETFs $SOXX $SMH break to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Auto retail stocks $AZO $ORLY break support completing a short term Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Home Prices higher by 6.3% in 2017, well above average calendar year increase of 3.8%. #Housing #Economy $MACRO

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US Durable Goods Orders down by 31.2% (NSA) in January, firmly lower than the 27.5% decline that is average for month. #Economy $MACRO

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US Imports and Exports moved in opposite directions in January: Imports up 1.3% (NSA), Exports down 8.0%. #Economy $MACRO $STUDY

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 27th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 27th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 27th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer plunged 10.11 to 45.49 yesterday. It dropped to intermediate neutral from intermediate slightly overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 2.44 to 31.71 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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19 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday February 28th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    $CAD continues to drop like a stone and will keep dropping. No reason for international investors to buy Cdn securities. No reason for Canadian investors to buy Cdn securities. The only game that works is US equities.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    The U.S.$ sold off to the 2009 & 2010 highs support which was also its 7 year uptrendline. This is the last line in the sand that needs to hold to suggest overall health. Breaking below 92 that has a multi year record of serving as support when above and resistance when below is still intact. The uptrend from 2008 is still positive and since 2012 the 50ema has been above the 200ema meaning the trend is still overall bullish. Price has now tested this last support area at 88 and has formed a bullish “W” pattern. Breaking above 90.46 would suggest a rally back to 92 resistance. The 92 level is major resistance now but the long term chart suggests a breakout above this level which would confirm another uptrend once again. The 1st chart is the long term one and the 2nd chart shows the W pattern. Not sure the charts will show. Stockcharts is changing the way things link. (They just can’t leave well enough alone.)

    http://schrts.co/BFMAZB

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08363729226&a=579408293

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    T.to (Telus) tried once again to tackle $47 resistance which is the breakdown point and got hammered down again by short sellers and is trading nearer the lows of the day. Despite that T.to is outperforming most other Utility stocks. A break above $47 that holds would be bullish and suggest a run to at least a double top around $49. Lower trend indicators are looking far more bullish now. But price is king and to expect upside price movement $47 needs to be cleared. A retest of $44 might be a good bet for a buy as well if tested again.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81367671196&a=579408585

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the U.S.$ ETF:UUP bouncing off of major price support at $23. Overlaid is the U.S.$ Index and DLR.to. Not a lot of price movement on this up or down with just 3.5 points top to bottom.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06297641249&a=579408634

  5. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong DOW update today: (chart would help understand his comments)

    “The US share market’s primary goal in life is to defeat whatever the majority believes and that can change even daily. As previously warned, this was by no means set up to be a 1987 Crash. The reversals were just not set up that way. Technically, we can see that broad uptrend channel has not been reached and the top of that channel rests at 22957.32 for February. This will move upward into March reaching 23081.78. The short-term uptrend channel top stands at 25119.50 which will move up to 25384.01 for March. This will become the pivot point to watch on a closing basis.

    February was a Panic Cycle and a turning point. While we still see volatility on the high side going into March, As long as we close ABOVE 24328, then the broader trend points higher into March. Technically, weakness would be indicated by a close below the January low of 24741.70, but that is NOT a Reversal – only a technical point to watch.

    March will have support underlying the market at the 24880 level. We must keep in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may still be in process headed into a May high.

    At this point, a Daily closing below 24884 would imply a retest of the top of the Broader Channel back at the 23081 area.

    A closing at the end of this week below 25974 will imply we should retest support before moving higher.

    We still see consolidation into the week of 03/12. So we are not running away to the upside just yet. After that week, then we may see a trend emerge into May.”

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Here is a chart of the DOW. Not sure what type of chart he’s looking at,perhaps the futures contracts as well or the continues futures contract.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31778689795&listNum=1&a=579408678

  7. Sherri Says:

    #6 Ron/BC
    Thanks, Ron. His chart is a monthly chart of the DOW with his own channels drawn on it. I was really just mentioning that it’s easier to understand his comments if you’re also looking at the charts he has with them. I appreciate your charts as they’re always really easy to read – thank you!

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Here is my monthly chart of the DOW. Not sure how he’s drawing his channels. Note the lower Modified MACD trend and how it captured each swing higher and then lower. Too bad I don’t trade/invest with monthly charts. Too easy I guess. I prefer Daily charts and some intraday. Just don’t have long term faith in the markets. Anyways,thanks for those updates Sherri. So did you come away from the big Conference with any gems?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73489352596&a=579408278

  9. Sherri Says:

    Hey Ron,
    Wow, that chart is great and shows how simple it can be if you don’t want to pay attention to the daily/weekly ups and downs. Too easy is right! As far as gems from the conference goes, no, not really. I was disappointed in the conference in general. Less useful information, more breaks and free time between speakers and “workshops” which also felt rushed and were not very helpful. Anyway, my girlfriend and I have decided next year we’re taking the money we spend on the conference and going to a spa instead! (might buy the video though…) It’s really a “girls” weekend for us and a chance to visit and catch up with each other. I will review my notes and post a couple of “gems” later today/tonight. Wow, what a market today! Wonder if we’ll break that support level yet.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Sounds like girl fun. Women always seem to have more fun and aren’t so serious about things. I guess that’s why they actually like spending money on stuff,lol.Big difference. Here is a Weekly chart of the DOW. To me it has gone too far too fast as you can see how far away price is from its 200ema that it tests now and again in any uptrend. Plus it went parabolic as well which is a warning of a major pullback. Price needs to come back to earth. See the 200ema at 19500 with the DOW about 6000 points higher than that. This will be tested at some point as it always is. Major support is at 18350 that held as resistance for two years until price broke out in late 2016. But note the lower Modified MACD arrows. This is the longer Modified MACD being 50,200,1 with a 20ema. Or just punch in 50,200,20 and the only difference is you get a Histogram at the zero line. The Monthly charts work best with the shorter Modified MACD of 20,50,10. So just follow the arrows and enjoy your spas and cocktails with your friends,lol……

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16450295451&a=580429410

  11. Brendan/BC Says:

    Hi Everyone

    Does anyone have comments on SPY as I am seeing a possible head and shoulders forming since the Feb low. If this is true, the next shoulder would be mid March before we sink. Don is charting a narrowing band for the S&P 500, if this is extrapolated to mid March, what would the upper/lower ends be?

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of BAC (Bank of America) which has been outperforming most other markets including the other U.S.Banks as well as the $SPX and the DOW. Price has been poking its nose above the early February high of $32.67 but can’t clear and hold it. Short sellers are shorting the double top and so far are successful. Price closed near the low of the day so perhaps buyers may throw in the towel for awhile and perhaps even see this test support at $29-$30. That would be better than trying to catch a breakout.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p86186454937&a=579521739

  13. Brendan/BC Says:

    Thanks for the charting and information Ron.

  14. Sandra Says:

    Base metals (DBB) etf : if 19 support does not hold will come way down. H& with R shoulder forming. Feel free to cricize 🙂

    https://invst.ly/6sd5c

  15. Sherri Says:

    Some quick recommendations/favorites from the WOC in Feb:

    Jeff Olin – Real Estate Industrial Real Estate the place to be, likes Pure Industrial REIT, InterRent (IIP)
    Mark Leibovit – favourite pot stock MJN Cronos, likes biotech, Disney, Home Depot, Gilead (lots of cash)
    Paul Beattie – value investing. Likes GoEasy (GSY.TO) Div. Grower going to $80 has never lost $ in any quarter last 19 years
    Brent Holliday – Tech ETF SKYY (cloud computing co’s), Alibaba buy and hold 10 yrs!
    Jack Crooks – Currencies Thinks the USD is in a multi year bear market
    Keystone -Zynex (ZYX), Sylogist

    General consensus is that interest rates are going higher than anyone expects!!!

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Brendan/BC
    Here is a chart of SPY. Could be a H&S forming but the most obvious issue is if price breaks below 270 which would suggest more downside.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p14038131568&a=579408254

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Sherri
    Thanks for the feedback. Here is a chart of the Jeff Olin’s pick IIP/un.to. Price ran up to a double top and the technicals are looking good. Best to see a breakout or retest of $9.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IIP%2FUN.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92127849838&a=580517370

  18. Sherri Says:

    Thanks, Ron!
    Good night and happy trading tomorrow

  19. Sandra Says:

    U.S. steel, aluminum executives invited to White House for possible announcement

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Politics/U.S.+steel%2C+aluminum+executives+invited+to+White+House+for+possible+announcement/13884276.html?utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mention

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