Tech Talk for Thursday March 1st 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 1st

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 5 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are waiting for testimony before congress on monetary policy by Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

Index futures recovered slightly following release of U.S. economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 230,000 versus a revised 220,000 last week. Actual was 210,000. Consensus for January Personal Income was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.4%. Consensus for January Personal Spending was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in December. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.

Toronto Dominion (TD $74.00) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The Bank also increased its dividend.

Husky Energy (HSE $16.94) is expected to open higher after reinitiating a dividend.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ $39.75) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. The company also increased its dividend.

Kohl’s added $0.41 to $66.50 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results..

Best Buy gained $3.70 to $76.14 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.

Jon Vialoux’s EquityClock Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

Note seasonality charts on S&P 500 Index (50 years), Financial sector, REIT Index, Natural Gas, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil

Equity Market Call by Colin Cieszynski

Colin offered his outlook on BNN this morning. Following is a link:



First, the bad news! Automated computer selling click into North American equity markets during the last two hours of trading yesterday. The VIX spiked from 18% to over 20%. Broadly based North American equity indices broke below their 20 day moving average.


Technical action by S&P 500 stocks turned decidedly bearish. Between 9:45 AM EST and 3:00 PM EST, technical action already was showing a bearish tone. Breakouts included AAPL and ADSK. Breakdowns included LEN HM, WHR, KMI, CELG, ALB and PPL. After 2:00 PM, breakdowns included DISH, GM, PG, OXY, AIG, HCP, NAVI, AGN, FBHS and CHTR.

And now the good news! North American equity markets historically have moved higher from the beginning of March to early May. This period is the second strongest period for equity markets during the year (The strongest period is from mid-October to the first week in January).




StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 9:45 AM EST: Quiet. Breakout: $TJX. Breakdowns: $DHI $LOW


Home construction ETF $ITB moved below $38.46 extending an intermediate downtrend. Individual breakdowns: $LEN $PHM $DHI


Kinder Morgan $KMI moved below $16.57 and $16.56 extending an intermediate downtrend. Not a good sign for the TransMountain Pipe expansion!


Apple $AAPL, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $179.37 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.


Valeant $VRX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $20.96on lower than consensus quarterly results extending an intermediate downtrend.


Laurentian Bank $LB.CA moved below $51.26 following fiscal first quarter results extending an intermediate downtrend.


Enbridge $ENB.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $41.36 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Change in Gasoline Inventories rising above seasonal average as demand in the latest week falls. $UGA $USO $XLE


Canada Industrial product price index higher by 0.3% in January, marginally below average increase for month of 0.4%. #CDNecon #CAD $MACRO



Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Note: Lots of breaks below the 20 day moving average yesterday

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 28th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 28th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts


Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 28th 2018


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


S&P Momentum Barometer

The Barometer plunged 5.61 to 38.88 yesterday. It has declined to slightly intermediate oversoldl.



TSX Momentum Barometer

The barometer plunged 6.50 to 25.20 yesterday. It has returned to significantly intermediate oversold.



Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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29 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday March 1st 2018”

  1. Sandra Says:

    U.S. steel, aluminum executives invited to White House for possible announcement

  2. Ana Says:

    #1. Sandra,

    They just announced on CNBC that there will not be an announcement on tariffs, there will just be a discussion.

    A bit of confusions, as per usual as the thread is unravelling in the White House.

  3. tony Says:

    Is anybody 50% or more in cash or am I the only one getting a nose bleed from some of these high prices?

    I hear most bnn guest are giving names but none said to raise some cash.

    I’m out of energy, pipelines, canadian banks, healthcare.
    I’m still holding some industrials, US banks, Tech.

  4. Mick/NV Says:

    some very nice dividend increases this morning on some of the stocks I own,, 11.7% and, 22%. Td is up around 2.5% ytd, but is down close to 10.5% ytd. is still hovering between the main pivot point and the R1 pivot point. there is still a gap around $64.5 that has yet to be covered. Wouldn’t buy it at this level but if price drops to around $72 or below, might be a good entry point. is also between the main and r1 pivot points, would like to see it drop to around the $38 level or below as I think that would be a nice entry point.

  5. Sandra Says:

    Ana: RE: US Tariffs.

    Agree, as usual confusion… Trump opens his mouth too soon without thinking of implications.

    AKS inexpensive stock. Keeping an eye on it.

  6. Mick/NV Says:


    I think a good way to get a nosebleed is listening to those analysts/guests on tv who really don’t know what is going to happen to tomorrow or any other day in the markets, but they love to hear themselves talk. You know more, you are managing your portfolio for yourself and your family and probably taking greater care in making sure your money is safe.

    I have anywhere between 15 and 20% cash at any given time, not buying anything at the moment nor am I selling.

  7. Sandra Says:

    I am also in lot of cash but like Ron/BC says that is also a position. I hope you read his comment about paying off ur debts and preserve capital. I watch BNN but don’t follow most of the guests on BNN because I wonder why they don’t buy the stock they recommend for themselves or family.

  8. Sandra Says:

    AKS and US steel is reacting to news…

    Trump made announcement.

  9. Ana Says:

    #8. Sandra,

    Anyone studying economics will remember that tariffs were the cause of the great depression.

    This can not be good for the world economy. Wait till China reacts to this. They hold the US debt.

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ana: #9
    Agree. Walls boundaries that Trump likes will affect expansion and businesses. May sound good for US but harmful in long run.

    He is bad for Canada 🙁

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    For all you 5i fans your guru in on BNN presently.

  12. Ana Says:

    $HVU.TO might be a good time to get out.

    Please consult your charts.

  13. Ana Says:

    Faked out by my one minute chart, however this may be it.

    HVU.TO is still a great trading tool!

  14. Mick/NV Says:

    AAPL is dropping nicely at the moment, down a little over 2.5%. Have owned this stock for awhile and am looking to add more. There is a gap at around $167.50 , a little below the main pivot point support. If that gets covered, I think that level would be a good entry point. The stock is up 3% ytd, up 200% the last 5 years. Doesn’t offer a big yield at 1.4% but I don’t think anyone buys this stock for its dividend.

  15. Sandra Says:

    Ana: HVU.TO
    #12 You are so good!

  16. Sandra Says:

    Dow down -500 wow!

  17. Sandra Says:

    BAC . at support on 60 min chart.

  18. Ana Says:

    Head and Shoulders on HVU.TO, potential first target 27.76

    Sandra, I make many mistakes, just trying to improve my accuracy.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Re BAC 31.62 is support. That was the top of the W pattern price has been using for support. I expect it to break down along with everything else and test it’s 6 month uptrendline at 30.50. Been busy looking at condo deals. Not enough fear out there yet but still some good deals. No hurry as they are coming down in price.

  20. Mick/NV Says: which reported fairly good year end numbers and giving strong guidance for 2018 is down 7.5% today, they also increased their dividend 4.3%, yields over 8% at the moment. Someone or some people obviously do not like what is going on here. The stock has never recovered from the drop in oil back in 2014, down around 50% since that time, also down 7.5% the last 5 years, 14% ytd, not a lot to like here.

  21. Sandra Says:


    Aha! That’s where I should put my cash to work.. buy a condo! 🙂
    But prices have not come down here. 🙁

  22. Ana Says:

    New targets for head and shoulders formations:

    $UVXY 15.70 – 15 88

    $HVU.TO 24.64 – 25.02

    Wondering what people have switched to trading from

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Need to see rates increase even more and with the more restrictive nature of banks along with new rules on borrowing at some point you’ll see foreclosures on those overprice over leveraged condos and homes. Nothing new there. So “IF” you have a chunk of cash and no debt and good credit you will be in the driver’s seat when looking for a place. Lots of new condos in Victoria that are being built on every corner. And the new ones have artificially low condo fees and are brand spanking new. So the older condos have much higher condo fees with fewer whips and gingles and have long term expenses such as roof repair and replacement and the old aluminum windows needing replacing and don’t forget the leaky condo issue from 1982-1999. All these cost often are not covered by the condo fees contingency fund and are ‘extra’ costs over and above. So the older condos are getting harder to sell especially if they are not rentable and must be owner occupied like most condos built in the 70’s and 80’s in Victoria. Investors wont want these and that helps keep the price down on the older condos. I get all the new listings automatically sent to me though a real estate agency so watch them all the time. But a lot of it is location. In the major areas you need to see a downturn in the economy and a loss of jobs etc to really spook the housing market. But like all markets they go up and they come down. Just have to pick you spots. Best to get a trusted realtor to keep you on top of things. Doesn’t cost anything to be plugged in. And areas outside of the ‘hot’ areas can be dramatically less money too. EX: A house in Duncan or other areas nearby which are less than an hour drive from Victoria are almost 1/2 the price of a Victoria home. Just be sure to get a “subject to inspection” etc before you sign the final papers.

  24. Ana Says:

    A nice chart to relate to tariffs and their consequences!

  25. Ana Says:

    “Did it work? It did not work.”

  26. rocketdave Says:

    Is it time to go fishing…looks like some have corrected to a good opportunity.

  27. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW today:

    “Technically, we can see that broad uptrend channel lies beneath the market at 23081.78. The short-term uptrend channel top stands at 25119.50 which will move up to 25384.01 for March. This will become the pivot point to watch on a closing basis.

    We still see volatility on the high side going into March, which has been reflected already in the first day of trading. The key support now lies at 24328. We are trading back below the January low of 24741.70, which is an indication of weakness.

    We did elect the first Daily Bearish at 25942. We have a Daily Bearish Reversal at 24790 followed by 23849. The Weekly Bearish lies at 23,250, which we bounced off of during February.

    February was marked by Panic Cycles the weeks of the 19th, 26th, and next week 03/05. These have been declining in intensity with the week of the 19th the most, and next wee just moderate.

    We must keep in mind that if the February low holds, then a Cycle Inversion may still be in process headed into a May high. If we elect a Monthly Bearish at the end of March, then this would imply a May low.

    We also previously warned that a Daily closing below 24884 would imply a retest of the top of the Broader Channel back at the 23081 area.

    Tomorrow will be critical. As previously states, a simple “closing at the end of this week below 25974 will imply we should retest support before moving higher.” A closing tomorrow below 25430 will suggest that this will be resistance next week and support lies at 24100. A break of the February low implies a move down to the 22000-21700 zone.

    We still see consolidation into the week of 03/12 with the key target there after shaping up as the week of 04/02.

    Between tariffs and rising interest rates, this is the fundamental excuse for the correction. Naturally, that is really nonsense, but they always need to assign a fundamental to try to explain every move logically. ”

    Retest of support coming up! 🙂

  28. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri…….

  29. Ana Says:

    #15. Sandra,

    As usual, I was too early for the rebound. We are turning up for the day, luckily I have not decided what to trade yet instead of

    Maybe Has anyone ever day traded this 2X etf?

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