Tech Talk for Wednesday March 28th 2018

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 28th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 index futures were up 5 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the final estimate for fourth quarter real GDP at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase in growth to a 2.7% rate versus the previous estimate of 2.5%. Actual was 2.9%.

Lululemon gained $5.78 to $84.49 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly sales and earnings. RBC Capital and Susquehanna raised their target price on the stock.

Blackberry jumped $0.60 to $13.00 U.S. after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter sales and earnings

Walgreen Boots added$1.44 to $67.40 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter sales and earnings. The company also raised its guidance.

Facebook added $1.18 to $153.40 after announcing changes that will allow individuals to alter their privacy settings.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/03/27/stock-market-outlook-for-march-28-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Technology sector, Alphabet, Amazon, Netflix and the Utilities sector.

Observations

Technicals have started to turn positive for natural gas.

clip_image001

‘Tis the season for natural gas and “gassy” stocks to move higher to mid-June!

clip_image003

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

More U.S. utility stocks complete double bottom patterns: $AEE $ES

clip_image004

Another Canadian gold stock completes a double bottom pattern: Detour Gold $DGC.CA moved above $13.43

clip_image005

Another Canadian insurance stock breaks support: Manulife $MFC.CA dropped below $23.66 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image006

Gildan Activewear $GIL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $36.40 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image007

Cara Operations $CARA.CA moved above $28.16 extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image008

CI Financial $CIX moved below $27.25 extending an intermediate downtrend.

clip_image009

 

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 27th 2018

clip_image011

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 27th 2018

clip_image013

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 27th 2018

clip_image015

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Next Wealth 365 Conference: April 9-14th

An excellent conference featuring over 70 well known speakers! The conference is free and is done over the web. Following is a link:

https://summit.wealth365.com/register/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 5.20 to 23.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

clip_image016

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image017

 

The Barometer dropped 5.47 to 33.47 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



32 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday March 28th 2018”

  1. sp Says:

    N.Gas above chart shows good to buy till June, but on TV yesterday’s guest said, sell n.gas companies not looking good and all my oil/gas companies are not doing good, paying dividend. Do you know N.gas price is same for Canadian producer vs. US producer? Oil price is cheaper for Canadian oil. Do you follow TOU.TO? earning report (last 2) is good. Have a great Easter holiday to all

  2. Sandra Says:

    Hi folks!
    It is so boring.
    Sucks!How to make money on TSX? Looking for something to trade on short term. Any ideas? Let’s see how many read my post!

  3. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC :
    thanks for the ECA.TO chart with histogram. Prevented me from buying it too early. Is not too far from 200MA.

  4. Ana Says:

    #2. “Boring”?

    The $SPX is close to breaking the 200 sma. If you bought hvu.to at 32.20 today, which it hit twice on a 5-minute chart and sold it at 36.30 which it hit twice on a 5-minute chart, you would have some $ to go out to dinner tonight! So, if you had 10,000 to trade with that would be 310 shares X 4.10 = $1271.00 for your profit and it is only 9:00 am.

  5. Conrad/ON Says:

    Looking at the TSE % Gainers list this morning, there appears to be a shift back into the ‘safer’ REITs and DIV. stocks happening. Looks like a ‘Risk Off’ trade occurring for the time being.

  6. Sandra Says:

    Ana:
    Holy macro Ana! You are sitting on a goldmine. I have to be honest that you have mentioned it here before but I never paid attention. As per my calc. with 10K i could have made over $2K today. OMG!

    I know you wrote once that you do not hold it. I will start with $10K. And what else do you watch? What are the triggers to make it go up and pullback. Please and thank you!

    This is something I need for excitement. Lol!
    Thanks Again!

  7. Bernie Says:

    Sandra,

    Re: #2
    I’m not a “live on the edge” kinda person like Ana, re: #4, but I did buy all 3 of the picks Stephen Takacsy recommended on BNN’s Marketcall yesterday. That was a first for me. I now own part of a wine producer (DWS.V), a senior living provider (SIA) and a global antenna maker (BYL).

  8. Ana Says:

    #7. Bernie,

    Here it is, if I had your money, I would burn mine.

    It is using my equity for profit that I harvest daily, almost like the dividend that you harvest on a monthly basis.

    Not living on the edge.

    Have made two trades today, waiting to enter for a third trade, waiting for a head and shoulder pattern to be completed.

  9. Sandra Says:

    ana: did u enter at 33

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ana: DO you trade from dashboard 5 min chart as it is alive. Do you have access to stockcharts?

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ana,

    Re: #8
    I’m not wealthy. I consider my net worth to be about average for someone 67 years old who saved modestly for half their lifetime and has no debt.

    Question, do you not find it a nightmare to keep track of all your transactions for tax purposes?

  12. Sandra Says:

    Ana:
    H&S second shoulder being formed. Today I am just following charts not trading HVU.TO

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana & Sandra

    Was looking at a 3 day 5 minute chart of HVU.to. I see 32.20 is the Pivot point that was tested as support today and then price ran up to 36.75. Yesterday’s high of 34.42 did not hold as support on the pullback from the high and price has bounced back and is typically and classically finding 34.42 resistance and pulling back again. That is the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder pattern. The Pivot Point at 32.20 is the neckline support that if broken would suggest a much lower price to S-1 Pivot at 30 or less. Don’t know if you can see this 5 minute chart but anyone with Stockcharts can see it. The RSI 8 has had a very good track record of catching price lows and bounce backs when re-crossing back above the 30 line. I think Sandra has Stockcharts so should be able to see the chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p16123418457&a=585916584

  14. Sandra Says:

    Ana: exit at 35.80 ..waiting for set up. Virtual trading today!

    Ron/BC:
    Thanks for the info. and chart. Yes, I do have stockcharts. Today is just rehearsal lol! Never used charts on advanced dashboard so getting comfortable with that.

  15. Ana Says:

    #9. Sandra,

    Yes, I entered my third trade at 33.

    #10. Sandra,

    What is dashboard?

    No I do not have a paid subscription to Stock Charts. I just use the daily charts on Stock Charts.

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    For those that trade with U.S.$ short term here is the VXX which charts like the HVU.to. Same chart patterns. Note the RSI 8 crossovers of the 30 line signalling price lows and bounce backs. Also note the long term 50,200,20 Modified MACD that oddly enough does show when the chart is trending bearishly when below the zero line. Not perfect and an odd indicator for a 5 minute chart but is worth having on a chart as a heads up for the short term ‘price trend’.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=5&id=p15632147859&a=585926148

  17. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    I have never seen such volatility! US indexes are +100 one hour and negative the next. Poor TSX does not even get a chance to go green for too long.

    In your experience is this the norm and last year was gift from Trump. I think the mess he is making is beginning to unfold and next year will be even worse. So holding long or buying and holding for dividends will erode your capital. So one has to find ways to take profits (take cash out) and that too trading without getting your cash stuck..
    I like to hear your views (and so would others) as I don’t have much know how. Still learning…
    Thanks!

  18. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    I have been updating my charts with your long term modified MACD (50,200,20). I was skeptical at first because the indicator seems so, so slowwwwwwww. But as it turns out, that is a good thing. The indicator (in conjunction with others) can be a very effective tool. Thanks.

  19. rick Says:

    Bernie ,

    Silly question : why do you keep track of your transactions for tax purpose ?

    My broker is doing that and my broker will inform CRA about my T5 and T5008 .
    When I will do my taxes CRA will already know how much money I made or loss last year .
    CRA will just check on me if I am honest or not ( their computers will catch me right away if numbers will not match )

    More than that :
    the broker where I have my TFSA is informing CRA how much money I do have inside TFSA , not only the total contributions but the total amount including the gains .
    If I will never pay taxes for the gains inside TFSA than why CRA want to know how much money I do have inside TFSA and the total gains I have ?
    There is something that CRA does not know already ? They force all financial
    institutions to report everything .( including your accountant = there is no privacy between you and your accountant like there is between you and your lawyer or you and your doctor )
    So why bother to keep track ? CRA already know everything that your broker or your bank know about your financial situation . And if your accountant will not give all your info to CRA that accountant will lose his/her license to work .

  20. rick Says:

    Sandra ,

    Ron/BC showed us (few weeks ago) a Dow Jones chart from 1980 until today .
    Ron/BC please show us the chart again.

    Look where Dow Jones was in 1980 and where it is today .
    During those 38 years we had different presidents ( republicans and democrats ),we had wars,
    we had crisis ( political ,economic , financial )
    and still = who bought in 1980 and stay invested = he/she is OK today.

    Trump is just noise . and stop watching CNN , better watch this site and stockcharts.com .
    CNN is screaming like FOX was screaming during Obama presidency .
    They have their own political agenda ( milking votes for future elections )

    Financial education is better than political propaganda .

  21. FishFat Says:

    New Flyer Industries (NFI.to), Sandra here is my idea.
    I mentioned NFI the other day. The price has since fallen below resistance at $59.57. But I took a position for several reasons. Price is still above support of a rising trend line. The SCTR is greater than 75 – indicating strength. Both the short term modified MACD(20,50,8) and the long term modified MACD(50,200,20)are above the zero level and above their signal lines. Admittedly, the long term modified MACD is flat and could easily turn bearish.

    http://schrts.co/wTs5rG

  22. Bernie Says:

    rick,

    Re: #19
    I’ve always kept track of my own transactions. They do differ at times from the printout I get from my discount brokerage so they do make errors. I’ve always done my own taxes. I don’t know which account Ana uses for her trading but if its a non-registered account I imagine the number of transactions could be astronomical. That’s enough to keep me away from trading besides being not having the stomach for it. lol

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    Rick
    Re:#20
    Here is the Dow chart from 1980. Yes,even adjusting for inflation buying an Index like this would have done well regardless of political leaders and governments. Individual stocks not so much as many crashed and went off the board including high quality ones. But an ETF or fund that reflects the Index dumps the poorly performing stocks and replaces them with good trending healthy stocks so the Fund or ETF keep rising. One shouldn’t assume this would be the case with all so called quality brand named stocks that can crash and go belly up to everyone’s surprise. As long as it is understood to stick to a fund or ETF that reflects the Dow or SPX they would have done well due to how they are structured and looked after, weeding out the poor stocks and replacing them with financially strong stocks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&st=1975-12-15&en=(today)&id=p55360692944&a=579408295

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1980-09-20&id=p77879385908&a=579408442

  24. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    It always amazes me how everyone views risk differently. I used to trade all the time like Ana does plus using the Emini S&P Futures contracts. And even though I don’t trade those anymore I still tend to trade short term as I always have. I get in and see a profit and then exit. Did the same thing with real estate speculation and did well. The reason I do this is I am not comfortable with risk. Short term investments and trades one can’t get that hurt badly ‘most of the time’. You make the trade in and out and get back into cash. But what you dividend investors do in my opinion is super risky and not something I could ever do easily unless I felt the money invested could be lost and it wouldn’t hurt much. And I’d likely expect to lose it down the road. To me stock investors that hold onto their stocks all the way up and down and even add to positions when falling even when they are in a losing position without losing sleep are amazing in how they view risk. To me it’s like confidently walking along the roof of a building and falling off and all the way down are saying “So far so good.” lol. I have to hand it to you investors because to me that is exposing yourself to major financial risk. I know most don’t see it that way but I can’t shake the idea. But short term traders & investors are not exposing themselves to that much risk. Consequently they don’t make big long term gains either. But that’s the price they are willing to pay. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush they say.

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Well I used to post about ‘train tracks’ which was a couple of moving averages rising together like a set of train tracks. As long as they were going up all was well. The Modified MACD and Histogram put this together even better and while it isn’t perfect and doesn’t work with every stock due to volatility it does work with a high percentage of stocks ‘most of the time’. So if you see the Modified MACD Histogram cross back above the zero line odds favour price rising as well for at least a little while. You’d have to have both MACDs on the chart as some stocks and ETFs respect one more than the other but the longer one being 50,200,20 works best for catching a ‘trend’ and running in that direction for some time and ignoring short term daily ups and downs. Put them both on your default indicators so they’ll always be there and most of the time they’ll be helpful in deciding what to hold. They are not like oscillators that give short term buy and sells like the RSI 8 but are good at catching ‘turns’ in a stock or ETF. Play around with some stock and ETF symbols and see what you can find. The stocks you are holding should be above the longer term Modified MACD unless you are willing to hold a falling asset for the dividend. The shorter term Modified MACD Histogram 20,50,10 works well often as well but while more timely on buy signals rolls over far too soon losing momentum even while price continues to rise. So on sell signals the long term Modified MACD Histogram sell signals are best although a little late. Just don’t jump the gun trying to out think the signals. The MACD Histogram is easier to view than the straight MACD with the same numbers. But the $TSX is weighted with Oils,Mines etc and needs inflation and a commodity bull market to perform exceptionally well.

  26. Ana Says:

    Sandra,

    When I told Bernie, that I was “waiting for a head and shoulder pattern to be completed” I was referring to $SPX $ES. That head and shoulder pattern can be seen on the 1 hour chart with the shoulder at 2595, we came down to it today and bounced off. I have written about this several times, that I use the live feed of the futures as a guide to trade hvu.to. Sorry if you thought that I was talking about a head and shoulder pattern on hvu.to.

    I do not trade on the advanced dashboard with TD. I do not have to worry about any fees associated with the advanced dashboard. I just use the normal charts that I have set up with my indicators.

    I would suggest that you paper trade this for some time especially if you are not used to day trading, as it can move very quickly. Please also learn where you buy and sell limit commands are. I use one computer to watch my charts and another computer for my account so that I can watch the charts.

    My fast charts with $VIX show that there is more room to the upside.

  27. BrianK Says:

    Ron/BC

    Have been reading this almost daily since 2008 and I always look for “train tracks”. Thanks

  28. Vik Says:

    Ana, I have been reading the conversation between you and Sandra.
    I am looking at the 1 hour chart of SPX.
    I don’t see the head and shoulders you mentioned. Could you tell me where you see the head and shoulder?
    This is what I see incorporating 2595 shoulder. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HEos1Mc1/

    Interesting trading HVU.TO. I assume you chart the SPX and act on those setups via HVU.TO correct?
    Thanks for sharing. Learn something new everyday.
    Thanks Ron/BC for your charts and MACD notes

  29. Sandra Says:

    There are such wonderful people on this platform. Ana, Ron/BC, Bernie, Rick thank you for responding!

    FishFat,
    I am watching NTR.TO and NFI.TO (does lot of bus in US) and both have pulled back. NFI.TO is in uptrend. Has doji candle after downward thrust but I am going to wait for confirmation. Like that it has dividend. Was ex-div yesterday and next one not till last week of June.

    Ron/BC: could you please look at NFI.To chart for us for an entry point? NFI has fabrication, manufacturing, distribution and service centers in Canada and the United States. Wandering if NAFTA will affect the share price. Or should we not worry so much!

  30. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    NFI.to has been in a nice uptrend for at least the last 3 years. The major price support now is at $55 which was the breakout area and is well tested. Despite the choppy erratic nature of the chart the long term Modified MACD Histogram has been a good guide regarding price trend direction. Right now it’s not that helpful regarding buying or not. That’s when I count on price patterns and a pullback to $55 would be where I’d get long. Don’t think I’d chase it here with the broad market so questionable and would not want to see price break below $53. There is no way one can figure out if and when some policy will or will not affect the price of the stock. You’d have to know the company inside and out and even then there are too many variables to accurately predict its effect.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFI.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82087638583&a=585362042

  31. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,
    The most successful investors of all time were long term investors. The vast majority of day traders lose big time. I’ve often heard said “an investment portfolio is like a bar of soap, the more its handled the smaller it gets”. The general wisdom is to find a strategic investing plan that you’re comfortable with and then stick with it, whether its short term, long term, or no term, ie; using a financial planner.
    You’ve been quite successful with your short term trading and get spooked at the thought of holding on to a stock long term. I can understand that, I would be too. I’ve mitigated that risk by owning a large basket of diversified stocks long term. I further dampened the risk by focusing on income growth via the less volatile dividend growth stocks. I’ve done well with this approach. On the other hand my experience with daytrading did not go well in 2011. I decided it wasn’t for me after I lost half of my TFSA holdings in a short period of time…about a month. Lesson learned, I suck at daytrading and find it extremely stressful so I’m not going there again!!!

  32. DC/BC Says:

    Just a quick point about day trading, not sure what platform will be more reliable, but RBC online platform crashed when I was day trading in the midst of setting up a sell order on HVU.to, eventually had to call in and after 30min was down 10%. Got 20 free trades and a sorry from RBC, so beware of the risks.

TopOfBlogs Finance Blogs
Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in