Tech Talk for Monday April 2nd 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday April 2nd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 12 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that China has imposed a tariff on 128 U.S. products.

Commodity prices moved higher on U.S. Dollar Index weakness. Gold gained $11.20 per ounce, silver added $0.33 per ounce and crude oil gained $0.34 per barrel.

Tesla dropped $8.63 to $257.50 on news that it is recall 123,000 S cars for a steering issue.

Humana added $19.17 to $288.00 on rumors that the company is negotiating with Wal-Mart including its possible acquisition.

Darden Restaurants gained $1.24 to $86.49 after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform

ADP added $1.12 to $114.60 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform.

 

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The Bottom Line

Encouraging technical action by North American equity markets was spotted on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators for a wide variety of indices and sectors turned upward from oversold levels. Timing is opportune. Seasonal influences on North American equity markets are positive in April. The month of April historically has been the second strongest month in the year, second only to December.

This is the time of year when favourable seasonal influences are triggered by encouraging corporate news released with first quarter reports at annual meetings. Chief executive officers love to give good news to shareholders at annual meetings. Responses to first quarter earnings reports released late last week by the first 7 S&P 500 companies were encouraging. Look for more of the same this week. First quarter earnings by S&P 500 companies are expected to increase 18.5%. Look for news on dividend increases and share buybacks.

The energy sector continues to show encouraging seasonal strength. Natural gas prices were notably stronger last week. Seasonal strength for the sector is from mid-March to mid-June. Inventories announced on Thursday were well below their five year average setting the stage for a significant recovery into spring. A move above the $2.81 U.S. per MBtu level will attract technical buying on both sides of the border. Preferred strategy is to own “gassy” stocks and related ETFs

Prospects beyond the end of April become increasingly murky. Negative political influences on North American equity markets during a U.S. mid-term election year are strongest between May and October. This year, investors will focus on the possibility of a change in control in the House of Representatives and Senate. The Republicans currently have a slim majority in both legislative bodies.

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Economic News This Week

March Manufacturing ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to dip to 60.0 from 60.8 in February.

February Construction Spending to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase 0.5% versus no change in January.

March ADP Employment Report to be released at 8:14 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to show an increase in employment by 180,000 versus a gain of 235,000 in February.

March Service ISM to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday is expected to dip to 59.0 from 59.5 in February

February U.S. Trade Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EDT in Thursday expected to increase to $56.8 billion from $56.6 billion in January.

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 226,000 from 215,000 last week.

Canadian March Merchandise Deficit to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to increase to $2.2 billion from $1.9 billion in February.

March Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to drop to 167,000 from 313,000 in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to slip to 4.0% from 4.1% in February. March Average Hourly Earnings is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in February.

Canadian March Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 20,000 versus a gain of 15,400 in February. March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged from February at 5.8%.

 

Earnings News This Week

earnings news

 

Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks turned bearish last week. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 10 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 19. Most of the intermediate breakouts occurred on Thursday. The Up/Down ratio dropped last week to (188/255=) 0.74 from 0.80.

Economic news this week will focus on the March ISM reports and the U.S. and Canadian employment reports.

Medium term technical indicators in the U.S. (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) increased last week but remain intermediate Oversold. They are showing early signs of bottoming.

Medium term technical indicators in Canada also moved higher last week

Short term technical indicators for U.S. and Canadian equity markets, commodities and most sectors (20 day moving averages, short term momentum) showed early signs of bottoming on Thursday.

Normal seasonal influences reappeared late last week. Seasonal influences on a wide variety of U.S. and Canadian equity indices and economic sensitive sectors tend to show strength starting near the beginning of March and continuing to early May. See charts below.

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The outlook for S&P 500 earnings and sales remains positive: According to FactSet, estimates for 2018 were slightly higher last week. First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 17.3% (up from 17.2% last week) on a 7.3% increase in sales (up from 7.2% last week). Responses to the seven reports released last week were encouraging. Four more companies are scheduled to report this week. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 19.1% on a 7.7% increase in sales. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 20.9% on a 6.4% increase in sales. Fourth quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 17.1% on a 5.6% increase in revenues. For all of 2018, earnings are expected to increase 18.5% (up from 18.4%) on a 6.7% increase in sales (up from 6.6%.

Short term political uncertainties remain, including North Korea threats, struggling NAFTA negotiations, rising trade war fears (particularly against China) and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election. However, NAFTA, trade and North Korean fears abated slightly last week

Earnings and revenue prospects for 2018 are exceptional for U.S. based companies with international exposure. Consensus for S&P 500 earnings on a year-over-year are expected to increase 18.5% in 2018. Earnings will benefit significantly from weakness in the U.S. Dollar on a year-over-year basis when revenues and earnings from international operations are translated into U.S. Dollars. For example, a U.S. based company with 50% of its earnings and revenues coming from international operations will see earnings and revenues increase by 7.0% from foreign currency translation alone following the current 14.0% fall in the U.S. Dollar Index from its high at 103.82 in January 2017. The U.S. Dollar Index averaged 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 101 in the first quarter of 2017.

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 29th 2018

spx april 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

 

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

 

S&P 500 Index added 53.27 points (2.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Note the bounce from near its 200 day moving average, an encouraging technical sign.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 31.60 from 15.60. Percent shows early technical signs of recovering from an intermediate oversold level.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 58.40 from 51.00. Percent remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks dropped last week to 41.20 from 44.60 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index is intermediate neutral and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks slipped last week to 55.60 from 56.00 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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TSX Composite Index gained 143.55 points (0.94%) last week with all of the gain coming on Thursday. Intermediate trend remains neutral (Score: 0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive (Score: 2). The Index remains below its 20 day moving average (Score: -1). Short term momentum indicators turned up on Thursday (Score: 1). Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 41.39 from 34.84. Percent changed from intermediate oversold to intermediate neutral and is trending higher.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 44.67 from 43.03. Percent remains intermediate neutral.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 609.98 points (2.59%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Negative. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Nice bounce from near its 200 day moving average, an bullish long term technical signal Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -4.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 36.67 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate oversold and trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks dropped last week to 54.32 from 58.74 and remained below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and trending down.

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NASDAQ Composite Index gained 70.77 points (1.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to-2 from 0.

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Russell 2000 Index added 19.35 points (1.28%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Positive. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average added 233.24 points (2.29%) last week with almost of the gain recorded on Thursday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Positive. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Nice bounce on Thursday from near its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned up on Thursday. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index dropped 60.10 points (1.01%) last week. Intermediate trend changed on Thursday from Neutral to Down when the Index dropped below 5,887.30. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Thursday to Neutral from Positive. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -4 from 0.

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Nikkei Average added 541.22 points (2.63%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from neutral on a move below 20,917. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score slipped last week to -2 from 0.

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Europe iShares added $1.10 (2.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2.

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Shanghai Composite Index added 7.77 points (0.25%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to -4 from -2.

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Emerging Markets iShares added 1.39 (2.96%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned higher on Thursday. Technical score remained increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Currencies

U.S. Dollar Index added 0.78 (0.88%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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The Euro slipped 0.48 (0.39%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down. The Euro dropped back below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Canadian Dollar added 0.08 U.S. cents (0.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up.

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Japanese Yen dropped 1.54 (1.61%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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British Pound dropped 1.08 (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Pound remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 29th 2018

crb april 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

CRB Index slipped 0.90 points (0.44%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Gasoline slipped $0.02 per gallon (0.98%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Gas remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Crude Oil slipped $0.94 per barrel (1.43%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Natural Gas added $0.10 per MBtu (3.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned Positive from Neutral. “Natty” moved above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -4.

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S&P Energy Index added 4.98 points (1.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 1.09 points (0.80%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 2 from 4.

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Gold dropped $22.60 per ounce (1.67%) last week reflecting U.S. Dollar Index strength. Gold remains above its 20 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 2.

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Silver dropped $0.31 per ounce (1.87%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Silver dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2.

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AMEX Gold Bug Index dropped 1.45 points (0.82%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to up from down on a move above 179.53. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Platinum dropped $15.80 per ounce (1.67%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength changed to Neutral. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Momentum: down

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Palladium dropped $27.75 per ounce (1.83%) last week. Trend changed to down from Neutral on Thursday. Relative Strength changed to Neutral from Positive. PALL remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum remains down. Technical score dropped to -4 from 0

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Copper added 3.3 cents per lb (1.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to -2 from -4.

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BMO Base Metal ETF slipped $0.07 (0.62%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from -4.

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Lumber gained $28.10 (5.76%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains Positive. Lumber moved above its 20 day MA. Short term momentum remains up. Score increased to 6

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Grain ETN added $0.34 (1.31%) last week. Trend remains up. Relative strength remains Neutral. Units remained below their 20 day MA. Short term momentum turned up on Thursday.

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Agriculture ETF gained$1.93 (3.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from -2.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries dropped 8.9 basis points (3.14%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on a move below 2.795%. Yield remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Conversely, price of the long term Treasury ETF added $1.73 (1.44%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher .

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Volatility

The VIX Index dropped 4.89 (19.66%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 29th 2018

xlk april 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

StockTwits released on Thursday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $PVH $AES $DTE $ES $CL. No break downs:

Editor’s Note: After 10:15 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included CLX and PEG. No breakdowns.

Palladium ETN $PALL moved below $91.30 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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End of natural gas withdrawal season approaching. YTD change in storage levels continue to fall more than average.

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Canada industrial product price index (PPI) up 0.1% in February, well short of the 0.6% increase that is average.

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Canada Monthly GDP down 3.8% (NSA) in January, slightly worse than average decline of 3.5%.

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S&P 500 Index has averaged a gain of 1.4% in April; positive in 70% of past 50 periods. equityclock.com/2018/03/29/… $SPX $SPY $ES_

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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21 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday April 2nd 2018”

  1. sp Says:

    Thanks for HVU.to traded and worked excellent

  2. Sandra Says:

    sp:
    Good for you! Indeed nice of Ana to bring it up. I missed the whole move. Wandering if too late to enter.

  3. Ana Says:

    #2. Sandra

    Sorry, too late to enter.

  4. Ana Says:

    #3.

    Market just had a waterfall.

    Actually, it always depends on how many shares you are trading.

    Check the bollinger band.

  5. Sandra Says:

    Ana: nice run I see from 9:45 to 11 a.m. You are right too late. I see a bit of reversal starting.
    Ana, I would have followed this as a gauge had I been trading it. It is real time. Good idea??

    https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-streaming-chart

  6. Ana Says:

    #5. Sandra,

    Yes, that is the chart I follow.

  7. Sandra Says:

    Ana:
    #6 Thanks. Forming positive divergence on 5 min chart. neg for HVU.TO trading.

    Ana, do you go in and out on 5 min chart on day like today? Reason I ask is because 60 min chart had nice 3 green candles without any neg signs.

  8. Sandra Says:

    sp:
    Like to hear about your first successful trade trade. Where did you enter on what signs ? And how did you choose to exit? thks

  9. Sandra Says:

    Ana:
    entered again?

  10. Sandra Says:

    Keith Richards on BNN tech Analysis

  11. sp Says:

    I read comments almost everyday, and try to understand. HVU.to posting and study chart, plus market is volatile, so traded on Thursday, made good money. Today traded again but lack of knowledge (confidence) and moving so fast, so booked my gain. Today Sandra had posted future chart, will really help me. so keep trading for daytrading.
    thanks for chart.

  12. Ana Says:

    #5. Sandra,

    That is the chart that I have posted here over and over again. I post all of my photo charts from that chart. That is the chart of $SPX $ES. I am surprised that you ask if it is a “good idea”?

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    The CU.to Utility ETF is interest rate sensitive and has seen very choppy price action. The long term Modified MACD 50,200,1 is the difference between the 50ema and 200ema and adding a 20ema as a signal line has worked well at determining when to be buying and holding the stock as well as selling and staying out. The 50,200,20 Modified MACD Histogram tracks the same and is easier construct and easier to read. Both these Modified Indicators while still bearish appear to be on the verge of turning back up again and are seeing impressive price action ‘relative’ to today’s selloff. The lower shorter Modified MACD 20,50,1 with a 10ema signal line is faster and more suited for shorter term trading. Waiting for the longer term M.MACD to cross back up again over the zero line would be the best option and most conservative.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04920208914&a=579408612

  14. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong today US share market:

    “QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have followed you since only since 2015. I bought the Dow back in January 2016 at the 16450 level. I want to thank you for I have made a fortune just staying out of gold and selling the Dow as you recommended at the end of January. I made 10,000 points. I sold that Monday when you posted that the high was in place and a correction would start. You warned that February could remain as a knee-jerk low. I take it that nothing has changed given the closing for March was neutral in the Dow but it produced the high in the Nasdaq. You warned we could see a March high but that was not in the Dow. You said the Dow could make a new low in April, but the two seem to be dancing around each other.
    Thank you
    SJ

    ANSWER: From an investor perspective, nothing has changed. We closed the Dow in Feb above the 24329 level and March proved to be just a consolidation retest which was much better than producing a new high or a test of that high. The NASDAQ made its high in March so we are witnessing the divergence I have warned about with each index reflecting a different group of buyers.

    The Dow is doing what the computer has warned that a consolidation period was likely for the first half. We received no major sell signals even on the weekly level that would indicate a serious correction was unfolding long-term. Technically, you could test the monthly numbers and bounce off. But keep in mind that this would most likely be confined to a reaction period. Reactions can take place on an intraday basis or a closing basis. The fact that the NASDAQ made its record high during March opens the door for a 3 month correction in that index moving into June. That would be a 5 month correction from the Dow perspective.

    Therefore, with April just penetrating the February low, this gives us TWO possibilities and that will be determined by the REVERSALS. First, we can make the intraday low in April in the Dow and then the Dow continues to be choppy and consolidate into June but not making significant new lows beyond April. If the April low is breached during May, then we can see a continued decline into June/July.

    REMEMBER – it is always the REVERSLAS that confirm or deny trends. The NASDAQ has not penetrated the Feb low and here in the Composite the Weekly Bearish to watch lies at 663067.

    From an investor perspective, you want to follow ONLY the Weekly Reversals or higher. The short-term trends flip back and forth and can get confusing if you are not a short-term trader. The key is not even my commentary for no human will ever be correct all the time. The NUMBERS are the NUMBERS and the model divides a market so you can see when the trend is actually changing on different levels.

    Investors should NEVER look at flipping their portfolio on short-term commentary. It is only my job to lay out the possibilities based on the numbers. It is always the NUMBERS that define the trend. There are also way too many markets to keep an eye on and the computer is much better than me at that.

    You do have to be disciplined. The hardest part of successful investing is to remove your emotions as much as possible from the decision process.”

  15. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re:CU.to
    The TD website is now saying the expected earnings date is Apr 24. I know the date is fluid until an actual earnings announcement is made.

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    I don’t know where I got that earnings date as the financial site I use covers all the U.S.stocks and ETFs without a lot of reading. The CD site that was given to me often doesn’t give the earnings date that I can find,not surprisingly. So your date is likely much better than mine,thanks.

  17. bruce Says:

    tuvm Sherri….

  18. Mary Says:

    Sherri
    Thanks for the update.

  19. Bernie Says:

    Beware the “Worst Four Months” of the Four-Year Election Cycle:
    http://www.alphaim.net/power_newsletter.html

  20. Ana Says:

    #14. Sherri,

    Thank you for continuing to post Armstrong’s thoughts.

  21. Ana Says:

    #19. Bernie,

    Thank you Bernie. Really interesting.

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