Tech Talk for Thursday April 5th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday April 5th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 13 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for February U.S. Trade Deficit was $56.8 billion versus $56.6 billion in January. Actual was $57.6 billion. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 226,000 versus 215,000 last week. Actual was 242,000.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of Canada’s February Trade Deficit. Consensus was an increase to $2.2 billion versus $1.9 billion in January. Actual was $2.42 billion.

Ryder Systems (R $72.99) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral.

Facebook added $6.06 to $161.06 after Mark Zuckerberg completed a media interview late yesterday.

Autozone gained $8.17 to $636.82 after Wedbush upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.

Intel slipped $0.13 to $49.86 after Stifel Nicolaus downgraded the stock to Hold to Buy.

Advanced Micro Devices added $0.27 to $10.04 after Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.

Monsanto slipped $0.03 to $116.18 after fiscal second quarter revenues were less than consensus.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/04/04/stock-market-outlook-for-april-5-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Manufacturing New Orders, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and the U.S. Energy sector.

Mr. Vialoux presenting to the CSTA (KWGC Chapter)

The presentation is tonight at 7:30 PM EDT. Location is 4355 King St East in Kitchener. Everyone is welcome.

 

Observations

A wild day in U.S. equity markets yesterday! Prior to the opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 600 points. It closed up 231 points. Volatility at a higher-than-average level continues.

Canadian Financials were notably weaker yesterday. The S&P/TSX Financial Index moved below 288.02 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Nice recovery by the Canadian Dollar! NAFTA fears are abating.

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Cannabis stocks and their related ETF continue to struggle. HMMJ briefly moved below support at $14.76 yesterday.

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U.S. Home Builder stocks soared after Lennar reported blowout fiscal first quarter earnings. Responses to first quarter reports released by S&P 500 companies to date have been encouraging. Look for more pleasant surprises next week when first quarter reports by major U.S. banks are released.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Intermediate breakout: $HRL. Breakdowns: $KMX $WLTW $LYB $COO.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, technical action by S&P 500 stocks turned bullish. Breakouts included MAA, LEN, UAA, IRM, DLTR, NKE, DHI, ESS and FRT. No breakdowns.

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Editor’s Note: Chemical producer such as LYB, who sell to China where a tariff was proposed, had a rough day on the charts.

National Bank $NA.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $59.28 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Another Canadian bank stock breakdown! Commerce Bank $CM.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $111.21 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Bombardier $BBD.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $3.61 completing a double top pattern.

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Pembina Pipeline $PPL.CA moved below $37.77 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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SNC Lavalin $SNC.CA moved below $54.78 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 4th 2018

spx april 5

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 4th 2018

crb april 5

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 4th 2018

xlk april 5

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Keith Richards’ Blog

Is it the end of the world as we know it?

http://www.valuetrend.ca/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added another 9.60 to 35.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and trending up.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 0.32 to 39.51 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending up.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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8 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday April 5th 2018”

  1. FishFat Says:

    I am watching Rogers Communications (RCI/b.to). A close and hold above resistance at 59.03 would confirm a double bottom. It is encouraging that there is positive divergence of the MACD and RSI indicators. Also, the SCTR indicator looks ready to move above 25 – some people use this as an entry point signal. Ideally, I would like to see the OBV and Accum/Dist curves both turning up. Also, the long term modified MACD(50,200,20) is still bearish and needs to move above the signal line to really change the tide, but the potential is there and makes it worth watching.

    http://schrts.co/LB3Thv

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    Re:RCI. Nice catch. Here is the chart of it in U.S.$ on the NYSE. A lot of the time stocks trading on both the NYSE and $TSX are much different due to the currency changes. It can drive you crazy looking at both and realizing the effect that the CD$ rallying or selling off has on the stock prices on the $TSX. I’ll stick to the NYSE as they tend to chart better as the NYSE is the world’s premier stock exchange and more believable and tradable. RCI tested its over two year uptrendline perfectly and has bounced back and cleared the downtrendline from November and run up to the February high resistance where price has typically stalled out. What typically occurs on that type of price action is a pullback to say $44-$45 and then rallying through the February high to $49-$50. And there is good support at $43. Just thought I’d add to your detailed chart with another view. Meanwhile the Dow continues to hold above its 200ema and uptrendline but with a questioable chart pattern. I wouldn’t bet on a positive outcome through 2018 but there are always charts to trade along the way regardless.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RCI&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35258442217&a=587191301

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75550900180&a=579408678

  3. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks, that is great input.

    I would appreciates your thoughts on one thing. RCI on the NYSE has an average weekly volume of about 20M shares versus 80M on the TSX. Even though the US markets are what the world watches, in this situation the TSX appears to be the dominant market. Is it not better to default to the Canadian chart as it will be the price leader and the US market the price follower?

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    I don’t believe so. Currency changes make a huge difference in prices and I think the U.S.$ listed stocks regardless of lower volume trading still takes the lead. I notice it especially with the CD banks that trade on both exchanges. If the CD$ rallies or sells off you can see it sharply affect the banks even though on the NYSE they aren’t doing much then. Here is the $TSX listed stock with a ratio chart of RCI/b.to:RCI above and right under it a chart of the CD$ $CDW. See how closely they track each other. But I’ve never read any analysis of the CD$ effect so could be wrong. I just feel the NYSE listed stocks chart better without that variable. with RCI/B.to a pullback to $57.50 would likely hold as support and then a rally through $59 to the $62 area.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RCI%2FB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75438253653&a=587197648

  5. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    Thanks – some good points. Especially about the currency fluctuations and how the RCE/b.to:RCI plot so closely mimics movements in the dollar.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    Another view of RCI is the falling channel below that price just broke out of and broke out over its downtrendline. And a pullback to that line is likely. Also not the RSI 21. I used to use it on all charts but got bored with it as it is more trend related not so much short term signals. But notice when it is above the zero line the ‘trend’ is bullish and rising ‘overall’ and when below the zero line price is bearish and falling ‘overall’. Sometimes this pattern ends and it just whipsaws back and forth through the zero line which tells you nothing of importance. So it isn’t always helpful. But it does look like it wants to re-cross the zero line now,so far. Nice price movement too if caught right.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RCI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50977237147&a=587267847

  7. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong today:
    “QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you said that the ideal low would be the 30th but since that was closed it would spill into Monday. Your timing targets are an amazing road map to the future. This week made a new low under February by a few points and it has rallied ever since Monday. Where are the Daily and Weekly Bullish Reversals at this time?

    HC

    ANSWER: Next week is a Directional Change. As long as we close this week above 22920 then it is still in a consolidation mode. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 25314 and we have a Minor Weekly Bullish at 25450. Only a Weekly Closing below 23250 will suggest we will test the monthly numbers in the mid 22000 zone. We see volatility rising going into the end of April and May is an important turning point that is much more significant beyond stock markets. The targets in time remain on track. Nothing has changed thus far.

    Resistance will begin to now form in the 25200-25300 level. We must break through this area to imply a sustainable rally.

    As I previous warned, April is three months from the January high and this is the the last month where we can make a low that conforms to a reaction. New intraday lows in May would signal we could press lower into July.

    Remember, that the market is showing us where it is going. We need just listen.”

  8. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri….

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