Tech Talk for Wednesday April 11th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 11th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 21 points in pre-opening trade.

U.S. index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the March Consumer Price report. Consensus was unchanged versus a gain of 0.2% in February. Actual was a drop of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy March Consumer Prices were expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.

EBay added $0.15 to $39.74 after KeyBanc Capitial upgraded the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight.

Harley Davidson dropped $0.13 to $42.25 after Wedbush cut its target price to $44 from $49.

Fastenal dropped $1.78 to $52.64 after reporting lower than consensus first quarter revenues.

Carnival Cruise gained $0.22 to $63.32 after announcing an 11% increase in its dividend. The company also renewed a share buyback program valued at $1 billion.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/04/10/stock-market-outlook-for-april-11-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Energy sector, Wholesale Sales, Wholesale Inventories and Producer Prices.

New Seasonal Chart Database Members Section

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/04/10/new-seasonal-chart-database-members-section/

 

Observations

Weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index (and its related ETF) prompted a strong gain in commodity prices (and their related ETF)

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Among commodities, base metal prices are soaring, led by aluminum

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Ditto for base metal stocks and related ETFs: ZMT.CA and PICK!

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Tech action by S&P 500 stocks to 11:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $F $CVX $NFX $OXY $RIG $LUK $HSIC $NTAP $STX $VRSK $GM $BF.B $HAL $DVN $VZ. No breakdowns.

Energy SPDRs $XLE moved above $69.41 completing a double bottom pattern. Individual energy stock breakouts: $C\VX $NFX $OXY $RIG

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United Kingdom iShares $EWU moved above $35.85 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Canadian energy stocks also moving higher (e.g. $FRU.CA).

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Cott Corp $BCB.CA moved below $$18.37 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for April 10th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for April 10th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for April 10th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer jumped 11.80 to 41.00% yesterday. It moved from intermediate oversold to intermediate neutral and is trending up.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer gained 1.87 to 46.50 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending up.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday April 11th 2018”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Hola to all of you,

    It has been a crazy time for me and hope to get you caught up on events soonish.
    Meantime, I really could use some help re Stockcharts subscription. I am paying for $19.90 for real time data – US and Canada and question the value. I do not trade so often anymore and I buy ETFs and some stocks. I subscribe to Extra. Thoughts ? What are you all using?
    Thanks in advance and I apologize for the brevity. Among other things I am moving to a new casa rental soon so extra busy.

  2. Paula Says:

    Hi Tawny,
    I only have Basic and have always had that level and I am fine with it. Unless you are day trading or want to do scans, I don’t think you need any more than that.

    Good to hear from you. Good luck to you.

  3. Bernie Says:

    Hi Tawny, good to hear from you! I agree with Paula. The free version is more than enough for my needs except for Canadian mutual funds, which they don’t cover. You might check barchart.com for something a little different. The charts aren’t as elaborate as stockcharts but they have a lot of interesting features which SC don’t offer.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Re:MAW102 Global Fund. Thanks for the list of countries but I was referring to the large majority of the fund made up of U.S.,U.K and CD countries that make up almost 70% of the fund. Seems odd there are such small percentages of so many other countries. I guess collectively they add up to about 30% of the fund which would balance out their total effect on the fund.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW found support at the Fib 61.8% retracement level of its May/17 to September rally and is bouncing back again. It retraced a Fib 61.8% as well of its Jan/16 to May/16 rally. Classic price action. Multi year highs in Crude have helped but note the ratio chart above of $CDW:$WTIC broke its channel back in November and has not recovered despite the strength in Crude. This choppy,sideways price action in the CD$ is difficult to trade with currency exchange rates so high. Would be nice for a brokerage to drop those fees to .50% or even .75% so those of us that like to switch currencies to make money could trade these bounces and selloffs with some success.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29724218727&a=579408456

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43461193879&a=579408525

  6. Sandra Says:

    Hi Ron/BC:
    Could you please review the chart for ARX.TO? Bought at bottom and done well so far. I am thinking of adding more.

    http://schrts.co/XcFfjq

  7. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Mawer Global Equity is MAW120. The MAW102 you show is the International equity which doesn’t include Canada and only has 5.44% U.S.

    MAW120 is an actively managed mutual fund with 67 holdings. Its tough to cover every country unless you’re an index fund. Considering their excellent management and track record I’d prefer a concentrated selection rather than holding everything bad or good (sounds like Santa…lol). The Global fund does cover all regions anyway, just not all countries. That’s my view. Some like broad index funds. I’m not a fan of them and their market cap weightings.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a 30 year Monthly chart of the U.S.10 year Treasury Yield. Nice long term falling channel. Price has been bumping up against its downtrendline near 3% and threatening to breakout which would signal a major trend change. Rates have been falling more than 30 years and historically is overdue for a reversal back up for another multi decade rise. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTT look at the RSI 8 above and note each time it became very overbought rates topped out and pulled back for long periods of time. This is a Monthly chart so is not timely but does suggest unless we see a breakout soon and a continuation of being overbought, interest rates should pull back for some time ahead. Hard to believe but this chart is suggesting a different story than the financial news reports on rates. Perhaps it’s time to go over the waterfall. Check those life jackets. And perhaps watch those Utility stocks for a turn around ‘if’ this is about to occur.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=M&st=1986-10-01&id=p45235430993&a=579408636

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I meant MAW 120. I guess the balance changes somewhat month to month but did notice how over weighted it was with U.S. and U.K. holdings but still had a lot of other country’s holdings in small percentages. I’m sure they know what they are doing looking at their performance which is the only thing that counts in the end.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Re:ARX.to. Very choppy stock with wide up and down swings. Price is near its downtrendline if that means much with this chart. But it is also very overbought but can also remain overbought and continue to rally. With this price action you can take a profit on these stretches and buy pullbacks as long as it has higher highs and higher lows.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ARX.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65045882717&a=588143741

  11. Ana Says:

    Hi Tawny,

    So nice to hear from you. I only have the basic stock charts but wish I had the advanced so that I could set up a chart and ask “what do you think”?

    Best of luck with the move.

    Take care.

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