Tech Talk for Thursday May 3rd 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday May 3rd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 point in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for first quarter Productivity was an increase of 1.0%. Actual was an increase of 0.7%. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was an increase to 220,000 from 209,000 last week. Actual was 211,000. Consensus for March U.S. Trade Deficit was $50 billion versus revised $57.7 billion in February. Actual was $48.96 billion.

The Canadian Dollar dipped to 77.71 U.S. cents following release of Canada’s March Merchandise Trade Deficit. Consensus was $2.0 billion versus $2.7 billion in February. Actual was $4.14 billion.

First quarter reports continue to pour in. Reports released since yesterday’s close included American International Group, Avon Products, Blue Apron, Bombardier, Cardinal Health, Cigna, DowDupont, Express Scripts, Fitbit, Kellogg, KraftHeinz, New York Times, Square, Tesla and Teva.

MMM added $0.50 to $195.00 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform.

NVidia gained $2.05 to $228.36 after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/02/stock-market-outlook-for-may-3-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the U.S. Dollar Index, Crude Oil days of supply, Gasoline days of supply and Crude Oil.

Observations

The Fed Fund rate announced at 2:00 PM EDT yesterday was unchanged. Responses by major markets were as follows:

U.S. Dollar Index initially moved lower, but closed higher.

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Long term Treasury prices initially moved higher, but closed lower.

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S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average initially moved higher, but closed lower.

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The VIX Index spiked.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $CXO $JNPR $MA. Breakdowns: $PGR $UNM $ZTS $CHRW $SBAC $VRSK

Editor’s Note: Breakouts after 10:00: UAA, GRMN. Breakdowns: LNC, BHF, K, TSN, FISV, MNST, JNJ, NLSN, PYPL, WYN and IP.

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CGI Group $GIB $GIB.A.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $59.89 U.S. to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Cineplex $CGX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $28.74 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Maple Leaf Foods $MFI.CA moved below $30.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Air Canada $AC.CA moved below $30.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Celestica $CLS.CA $CLS moved above $15.00 Cdn. completing a base building pattern.

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Uranium ETF $URA moved above $14.09 completing a base building pattern.

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Crude #Oil Inventories up 6.2 million barrels last week, breaking stockpiles our a tight range $USD $CL_F $XLE

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Johson & Johnson $JNJ, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $123.54 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Eldorado Gold $ELD.CA $EGO moved above $1.30 Cdn. completing a bottoming pattern.

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International Paper $IP moved below $50.04 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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‘Tis the season for weakness in International Paper $IP to the end of June.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 5.60 to 40.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 1.38 to 65.84 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday May 3rd 2018”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX has been forming a Symmetrical Triangle for 3.5 months and has tested its uptrendline from the January 2016 low three times as well. That uptrendline support is also the 200ema that has also served as support. Price is presently breaking down through the uptrendline and 200ema and the projected selloff from such a pattern would be to the 2200 level which is also the Fibonacci 61.8% retracment point of the January 2016 low to the February 2018 high rally. While this appears like a clear cut well defined pattern there is another major price pattern within the past 3.5 months which is a Descending Triangle. The projected selloff is the same but the support level is the 2550-2575 level price lows. Only a break below these levels would strongly suggest a major selloff to the 2200 level. A break below the uptrendline and 200ema is bearish and an obvious breakdown of a 3.5 month well defined Symmetrical Triangle which ‘should’ cause a ton of short selling and exiting of positions. BUTTTTTTTTTTT if the 2550 level holds as support and doesn’t breakdown and stabilizes above this level a reversal back up would create a lot of short covering and fresh buying,especially if the downtrendline of the Triangle is cleared on a rally back up. Bottom line:Don’t ‘assume’ anything until the important price levels are broken or cleared. The old saying is “If it’s obvious,it’s obviously wrong.”

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p99953142260&a=579408698

  2. bruce Says:

    ana and ron
    tnx for calls on the s&p…..Ana you gave a heads up a while back which was spot on….tnx…

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    BUTTTTTTTTTT – Moment of decision. It’s a classic point when weak hands get shaken out. You have to have real confidence in the stocks you hold.

    SHOP – up almost 4% – This is supposed to be a “risky” stock. What is it doing when people are supposed to be “panicking?” This is your “protection” from a weak market?

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    SOXX – The dreaded “risky” semi-conductors are around break-even on the day.
    TXN – Up
    AAPL – Flat

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    MSFT – Up (my biggest holding) , SOXX – now up
    Look for hammer formations. Eg. GOOGL – turning to breakeven, Ditto FDX
    That’s it from me.

  6. Sandra Says:

    Hi Ron/BC:
    Bought BAC today on pullback. Your chart was useful.
    Thanks

  7. Ana Says:

    #2. bruce,

    You are so kind with your comments, I have not been correct with any of my head and shoulders.

    I posted a head and shoulder diagram on another forum and some guy said it was autistic! 😀 😀 😀

    At least people have been patient with my hallucinations here. 😀

    The reporting for tomorrow looks bullish so I think that tomorrow will be up, as I mentioned yesterday.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    I ‘ve been waiting & watching to buy BAC for some time now or even BmO or tD but don’t see a reason yet. Been busy looking at condos and golfing so will have to spend time on those charts again. They have been going sideways to down for awhile now.

  9. bruce Says:

    Ana……you/ve been close enough with your comments to win a cigar….tnx again..

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    I bought BAC for a quick trade as it had pulled back so much. Most of the stocks are going down or sideways and getting sold off with even good results so you are not missing much. Enjoy your golf games!

    With buyer’s market in the West, hope you find a nice place at a nice price.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    Well BAC tagged its uptrendline and bounced back with a long tail on today’s bar. I would have bought it at the line but wasn’t expecting the test today. Would not want to see price break below $28. Price action looked good today but the lower M.MACDs don’t look good.

    As far as condos go I found a dream come true spotless condo that a little old lady lived in and has views of the mountains and on the top floor facing West with vaulted ceilings and reading the Depreciation Report hasn’t anything major to deal with. Price is great so while I’ll put in an offer odds are I could miss this as there are still lots of buyers here,many of which from other parts of Canada. Not as easy for most to buy with all the new regulations which helps me find a place without chasing it but still a strong market. I’ll know sometime Monday if I get it or not.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19173834055&a=579408469

  12. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Inverse Head and Shoulder, the target is 2672.

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