Tech Talk for Friday May 4th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 4th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 12 points in pre-opening trade.

U.S. equity index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the April Employment Report. Consensus for Non-farm Payrolls was 185,000 versus an upwardly revised 135,000 in March. Actual was 164,000. Consensus for the Unemployment Rate was 4.0% versus 4.1% in March. Actual was 3.9%. Consensus for Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.1%.

First quarter reports continue to pour in. Reports released since the close yesterday included Activision, Alibaba, CBS, Celgene, Herbalife, Newell Brands, Shake Shack, VF Corp and Weight Watchers.

Celgene gained $1.60 to $87.00 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter results.

Alibaba added $0.43 to $182.88 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter results.

Apple gained $2.02 to $178.91 on news that Berkshire Hathaway purchased an additional 75 million shares of the stock in the first quarter.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/03/stock-market-outlook-for-may-4-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Non-farm Payrolls, Manufacturer’s New Orders, Canadian Merchandise Exports and Canadian Merchandise Imports.

Keith Richards’ Blog

According to Keith, Bear-o-meter turns bearish. Following is a link:

http://www.valuetrend.ca/bear-o-meter-goes-bearish/

Observations

Broadly based U.S. equity indices once again bounced from near their 200 day moving average.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Grain ETN $JJGTF moved above $27.75 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Wheat ETN $WEAT moved above $6.90 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Tech action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bearish. Breakouts: $MRO $FMC. Breakdowns: $AIG $BEN $CB $COF $ICE $MMC $CAH $CERN $AVGO $FE $EQIX

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Coca Cola $KO, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $$41.82 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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BCE $BCE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $53.00 on quarterly report extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Gildan Activewear $GIL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $$36.83 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Bed Bath & Beyond $BBBY moved below $17.19 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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‘Tis the season for weakness in Bed Bath & Beyond $BBBY to move lower to August.

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American International Group $AIG moved below $55.42 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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‘Tis the season for American International Group $AIG to move lower to mid-July!

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Franklin Resources $BEN moved below $32.41 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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‘Tis the season for Franklin Resources $BEN to move lower to late June!

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks from 10:15 to 11:15: Bearish. Breakdowns: $BWA $DIS $NCLH $TWX $BAC $SYF $HBAN $CFG $STI $STT $HON $KSU $GLW

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Bank of America $BAC completed a classic Head & Shoulders pattern on a move below $29.04.

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Financial SPDRs $XLF moved below $26.55 completing a topping pattern.

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’Tis the season for U.S. Financials to move lower to mid-October.

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U S Financials breaking support this morning: $AIG $BEN $CB $COF $ICE $PRU $BAC $syf $HBAN $CFG $STI $STT

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Walt Disney $DIS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $97.70 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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‘Tis the season for Walt Disney $DIS to move lower to Septermber!

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JP Morgan Chase $JPM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $105.54 completing a modified Head & Shoulders pattern.

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‘Tis the season for JP Morgan Chase to move lower to mid-October!

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U.S. Factory Orders up 15.9%, well above 11.9% average increase for the month. #Economy #Manufacturing $MACRO

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Canada Trade Balance widened in March as Imports trend above average while exports fall below #CDNecon #CAD $MACRO

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Franco-Nevada $FNV.CA moved above $93.90 Cdn completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for strength in Franco-Nevada $FNV.CA to September!

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 1.40 to 39.00 yesterday. It has moved down to the intermediate oversold level, but continues to trend lower.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 2.47 to 63.37 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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35 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 4th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    SP500 P/E levels lower now than before Trump was elected – I caught that tidbit from Himalaya Jain on BNN this morning. It helps to put things in perspective as we face the market with a fresh change of underpants after yesterday.

  2. Sherri Says:

    In case anyone is interested, Armstrong has a new Youtube channel:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/subscribe-to-our-youtube-channel/

  3. Ana Says:

    #1. Larry/ON

    That is funny, as Trump just announced that the market is up 35% since he was elected. Facts mean nothing to this clown and Giuliani has joined his circus and is fitting in quite nicely. Trump is recanting everything Giuliani said in his interviews.

    Still not in the clear here, as the April Non-farm Payrolls were up but missed the estimates by quite a bit this morning.

    Charts looking like we might roll back all of the profits today.

  4. JP/BC Says:

    Interesting that the S&P has had lower highs since January and that the VIX has had lower highs since February. This can’t continue forever. One of these should reverse soon.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71426489528&a=407075773

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=vix&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88295643629&a=505251890

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Ana – The market is up quite a bit since Trump was elected but earnings are up just as much so there is no relative overvaluation at this point as in the last three months earnings went up dramatically while prices went down from nosebleed highs. The question is what earnings will do going forward. This is dependent on economic growth and perhaps there is a little more follow through on the tax cuts going into the next quarter. I am confident on economic growth.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    GOOGL – Started buying at 1023 26 34. Nice entry point still at 1040s. Back over 200day MA with a stochastics cross-over above 20. Triple bottom.

  7. Ana Says:

    #5. Larry/ON

    Sorry, I did not see your “P/E levels lower” reference. I must have low comprehension when reading! :O Thank you for your clarification of that issue.

    GOOGL

    My day trading charts indicate to me that this will go down to 1000 – 1005 first. That is what I would wait for prior to buying a big position when I am just following my charts. Have a look at the volume for today, it certainly does not match a similar day for today’s uptrend. The volume is about half the amount for a similar day of buying.

    There should be some really good positive days in May due to trade settlements with NAFTA and TPP. But there should be some really negative days too. Dependent on what happens with the Trump circus. I think that the market and public are getting used to all of the lies that are generated from the White House. What a poor state of affairs!

    If we do breakout and want to achieve higher levels with the satisfaction of the inverse head and shoulder perhaps we will backtrack for Monday to the breakout level.

  8. dutchcanuck Says:

    Have seen Intrepid Potash mentioned on this site. Do not know by whom, but here’s some info.
    Fairfax Financial sold 1,057,269sh @ $4.45 on May1, followed by 2,093,005sh @ $4.45 on May3.
    I guess Prem needed some cash for the Weekend.

  9. Ana Says:

    “Ana Says:
    May 4th, 2018 at 12:42 am
    $SPX $ES

    Inverse Head and Shoulder, the target is 2672.”

    Did not think that we would get there in one day!

  10. Sandra Says:

    Ana:
    On May 2nd you wrote after going to 2630 SPX will see upside 2666. That is where we are right now!! Very good you are!

  11. bruce Says:

    ana…..late last night you called for 2672……we touched 2671 to-day…..when is your market letter coming out?.

  12. Ana Says:

    #10. Sandra,

    But then I said maybe the weekly 2560, sooo wrong! 😀

    My calls are strictly for entertainment purposes!

    Maybe I got the direction correct. That is about it!

  13. Ana Says:

    #11. bruce,

    You are the only group that puts up with my constant rambling!

    Thank you, you are such a kind person.

    I wrote the same thing on another blog and someone answered, “Economic data used to mean something here before stock prices became based on the expansion and contraction of central bank balance sheets.”

    Someone else wrote, “It would be great if it was that simple to determine the direction of the market. Imho we won’t be seeing 2672 anymore. Things are headed further down from here and we will be making lower highs and lower lows over the next 3 months.”

    So my comment was contradicted and I do not think that anyone took heed!

    Just really writing these things for feedback and a heads up for people to have a look at the possibilities. It is surprising at how many people are strictly looking at a bear or a bull when the market is so up and down all of the time. How can they lose so much money is my question?

    I am probably getting overconfident and arrogant here, so my calls will just backfire when that happens. Big ego = Big errors! 😀

  14. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    So thinking down on Monday because of volume and channel check.

  15. Sandra Says:

    Ana, your posts are entertaining for sure..enjoy your humor.

    What do you think of USD next week? Ron/BC, may not post as he is too busy playing golf and looking for opportunity to spend big money. 🙂

  16. Larry/on Says:

    SOXX – Closed at the high. Good sign of a tech roaring market.

  17. mary Says:

    Ana:

    Is it possible for you to post a chart so that newbies can learn how to follow charts. Thanks for all your updates.

    Sherri:

    Thanks for posting Armstrong updates as well.

  18. bruce Says:

    Ana 13……..your comments provide food for thought …..you draw our attention rightly or wrongly….tu….

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    The major Indexes aren’t the only thing testing their 200ema lines and price support levels.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECK&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25146343952&a=588665073

  20. Ana Says:

    #15. Sandra,

    Ron/BC is the king for the USD.

    I was thinking that I would like to buy the condo that Ron/BC is buying! Too bad, I did not have the listing! 😀

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Well I’m waiting to see how many offers are coming in on Monday and I have to decide exactly how much I’m willing to pay for the condo. If there are several offers I’ll have to offer more than the ask. How much more is eating me away as I don’t think I could find another place quite like it but I don’t like to chase price. There are just as nice places 20km out of town in a quiet easy going community called Sidney and the settings are even more spectacular. But they are 20km and 20 minutes drive out of Victoria. Makes for a lot of driving and I spend about $300 per month on gas already.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    The U.S.$ has run up fast and while clearing the downtrendline and 91 and 92 is very overbought. Doesn’t mean it can’t remain overbought but odds favour a pullback to 91 first. If it can pullback a little and hold above 92 that would be very bullish and suggest a run up to 94-95.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76512457165&a=579408533

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82642439217&a=579408368

  23. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re:TECK
    I have been watching TECK for an entry point. Tagging the 200-d EMA is significant. What I also like about the chart is the double bottom that has recently formed. I am waiting for the price to breakout above its current downtrend before I jump in. Notice also the short term modified MACD has just crossed above the signal line and the SCTR is back above the 75-level. Looks encouraging-ish.

    http://schrts.co/L54qrx

  24. FishFat Says:

    Parkland Fuel (PKI.to) gapped-up on strong volume this week after a consensus earnings beat. The gap-up was also a break-out of a cup-and-handle chart pattern. Several indicators are bullish. SCTR is above 75. The long term modified MACD(50,200,20) has just crossed above the signal line. And both the OBV and Accum/Dist are once again turning up. However, several other indicators such as the RSI(8) and the stochastics suggest the price is overbought. A good entry point may occur around $30.25-$30.50 as the price pulls back to the break-out price and closes the gap-up.

    http://schrts.co/v73xzv

  25. roy Says:

    Anyone have thoughts on gold stocks and when is the optimum time to enter?

  26. Mary Says:

    Ron/BC

    All the best with your condo purchase on Monday. After years of bidding wars in Toronto its not happening as much (thanks to the Govt. intervention and new mortgage rules). I did not like sitting in my car for hours just to find out my clients lost the deal. Make sure you go with a certified cheque/draft with your Offer and no condition if possible. You could always use the wording…Seller warrants.

    Best of luck.

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    Mary
    Thanks for the positivity. My offer is always cash and I’ll take possession at the owners convenience to allow them to move out etc. And I don’t need conditions as I get the Strata Documents with a Depreciation Report ahead of time and spend several hours reading them over and making notes. So the only catch is how many offers come in on the place and if someone offers over the ask which is likely on this place. Just have to wait for things to “breakout or breakdown”,lol. But the market here is still strong and multiple offers are still seen on solid properties. Condos needing a lot of work still sit there for a month or two not selling. The condos that have been renovated and updated tastefully are the ones that sell. Not a hot market here anymore and many listings say “Back on the Market”, Financing Collapsed”. And many listing show a reduced price of $10K to $30K as owners have come back to earth. I’d prefer to buy in a recession with low sales and owners eager to exit. But I’m not getting any younger and while I’m fussy what I’ll pay for, it would be nice to get a place of my own that I want to live in. So I should find out Monday how things turned out. I wont get my hopes up as I suspect the offers will come in far above the ask.

  28. Ana Says:

    #17. Mary,

    Sorry, I do not have a subscription to Stock Charts, so I can not share charts like Ron/BC does. We are very lucky to have his charts with his annotations.

    There is a channel that the market is currently in.

    It is all about possibilities, 2582 looks good if it follows the channel.

    http://schrts.co/CCYrH5

    You can annotate this chart. Draw the channel starting with the top of the candlestick from April 18th for the top channel and bottom of the candlestick from April 13th for the bottom channel. Join the top line with the top of the candlestick from May 5th and join the bottom line with the bottom of the candlestick from May 4th.

    If someone can draw this channel for Mary, I appreciate it.

  29. Ana Says:

    #21. Ron/BC

    Good luck on Monday. Hope you get the condo.

    I love Sidney. However, there is so much to do in Victoria!

  30. FishFat Says:

    re: #28 Ana’s Chart with annotations.

    http://schrts.co/Jdvqjv

  31. Larry/ON Says:

    Market Perspective – Healthy Scepticism Means A Lot Of Money Waiting To Go Back Into The Market
    First of All – SP500 operating earnings are up 30% YOY after 65% reported this Q – strongest in 7 years.
    Thursday low was a higher low. Lows have been 2532, 2553 and 2594.
    David Burrows “It seeems like the equity bears are emotionally vested. Data continues to support the case that this has been a bull market correction…not more”
    A lot of hedges are going to come off. A lot of shorts are going to cover. A lot of buying is going to come in.

  32. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Good luck with your purchase tomorrow. Victoria is a wonderful city to live in but property is quite expensive compared to the rest of Vancouver Island. If your deal falls through I’m sure you’d enjoy cheaper condos in Sidney or up island just as much. Perhaps buy a hybrid or electric car to reduce your driving and insurance costs. We’ve owned a Toyota Camry Hybrid since 2015. Bought it used…love it!

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    Hi Bernie
    Thanks for the good wishes. I really don’t like buying in a strong market as I just don’t have a strong position as a buyer. The new rules have eliminated many buyers and brought sellers down to earth on their prices but there is still a strong demand for condos. I guess they can’t afford houses or even townhouses so the condo market remains their only home they might qualify for. And yes Victoria is expensive and CMHC said recently that Vitoria and Vancouver were very overpriced housing markets and vulnerable for a correction. Sidney is about the same price but you get far more for the money especially the view and surrounding area and quiet small town atmosphere and right on the ocean. Hard to beat but also a half hour drive to Victoria. Up Island prices are cheaper all right. Duncan is about 55% the price of Victoria and a short drive. Nanaimo is about 2/3 to 3/4 the price and further up Island like Courtney/Comox also about 3/4 the price of Victoria. But I’m not a fan of change and would be out of my comfort zone to move up there. Lots of condos here in Victoria from $225K to $400K. Lots of older ones that need a lot of work too. The 90’s condos is an era I do like and while that was the ‘leaky condo’ time period the required Depreciation Report covers the condition of each building professionally and many now are remediated or fully repaired. The new condos from about 2000 up are better yet with 9ft ceilings and lots of large windows and fewer problems but also sell for more. The Western Community here is building condos faster than rabbits have babies and the traffic into there and out of there is insane. I wouldn’t take a place out there as a gift as you can forget about driving at a normal speed most of the time. They aren’t building more roads so obviously there is a problem. I told someone considering moving out there that when I lived out there in 1965 the drive there and back was a big problem even then. I looked at another condo today on the top floor close to where I live so am in my comfort zone. It faced North though so no bright sunshine coming in. Huge windows though and a beautiful building with a good price. So “IF” my deal falls apart I wont and will move on and perhaps view this one. The strata fees and property taxes here are about 1/3 of what I presently pay for rent so it is economically viable to buy a condo. Plus the money I’d losing in interest when paying for a condo in full is more than offset by what I’d save in rent. So I can’t regret getting rid of the cash. And I still have cash for other stuff. My 2011 Ford Escape is a 4 cylinder 6 speed auto and gets ok mileage. I do drive a lot though. And I need room for 2 sets of clubs etc. Being I don’t smoke or drink that saves me a lot of money and I don’t go out for expensive diners. So I can spend a lot on gas and regular coffee shops and reasonable restaurants without it breaking the bank. It’s all a trade off within your budget of what one does with their money.

  34. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Not trying to sound like a salesman here, butttttt I’ve owned Toyota vehicles for close to 40 years and am sold on them for quality, low maintenance and durability. The only drawback with our vehicle is the reduced trunk space due to the placement of the hybrid battery. I don’t have much trouble carrying two sets of golf clubs but if pull carts are included I separate them from the bag and place them in the back seat. I’ve only owned Camrys and Corollas in the past but might consider a Rav4 for our next vehicle. But it will definitely be a gas hybrid vehicle. The hybrids are so much cheaper, and quieter, to run.

  35. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:
    Good luck! Hope you get the property that brings you peace and prosperity.

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