Tech Talk for Monday May 7th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 7th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 7 points in pre-opening trade.

Quarterly reports continue to flow in. Companies that reported this morning included EW Scripps, Tyson Foods, Sysco, Sempra Energy, PetMet and Gannett.

Shake Shack dropped $1.20 to $54.75 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Under Weight from Neutral.

Alibaba gained $1.11 to $190.00 after KeyBanc, Benchmark, Oppenheimer and SunTrust raised their target on the stock.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/04/stock-market-outlook-for-may-7-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings.

WALL STREET RAW RADIO – SATURDAY, MAY 5, 2018

WITH HOST, MARK LEIBOVIT AND GUESTS: DON VIALOUX, HENRY WEINGARTEN AND SINCLAIR NOE:

https://tinyurl.com/yc5v3cpb

 

The Bottom Line

It’s time to take money off the table if you own U.S. equities. First quarter results by a wide variety of U.S. companies for the most part exceeded consensus sales and earnings estimates during the past two weeks. Analysts increased their consensus first quarter earnings estimate for S&P 500 from a gain of 23.2% to a gain of 24.2% and boosted consensus estimates for the remainder of the year. Yet, unless results were spectacular (e.g. Apple), traders took profits on news.

Next week effectively is the tail end of the first quarter earnings report season for major U.S. companies. Look for more profit taking on news.

U.S. equity markets have a history of reaching a seasonal peak at this time of year. In 1991 in my CMT designation paper, I wrote about this phenomenon by coining the phrase, “Buy when it snows (in late October), Sell when it goes (in late April). The first week in May historically also is the week when many equity markets, commodities and sectors change their seasonality from Positive to Neutral/Negative.

The phrase is particularly relevant in U.S. Mid-term election years. Volatility in equity markets increases from late April to mid-October due to concerns about a possible change in political control in Congress. These concerns are very real this year. Republicans control the House by 16 votes and the Senate by one vote. On average during a Mid-term election year, the controlling party loses 24 House seats to the opposition party. Anticipation of a possible change, regardless of the final result, is a major reason for a correction in North American equity markets between late April and October.

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Economic News This Week

April Canadian Housing Starts to be released at 8:15 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to slip to 210,000 from 225,200 in March.

April Producer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Excluding food and energy, April Producer Prices are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.3% in March.

April Consumer Prices to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase 0.3% versus a decline of 0.1% in March. Excluding food and energy, April Consumer Prices are expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in March.

Bank of England announces its overnight lending rate at 7:00 AM EDT. Consensus by economists on a possible 0.25% increase is mixed.

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 220,000 from 211,000 last week.

April Canadian Employment to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 19,600 versus a gain of 32,300 in March. April Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 5.8% set in March. April year-over-year Average Hourly Wages are expected to increase 3.6% versus a gain of 3.3% in March.

May Consumer Sentiment Index to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Friday is expected toincrease to 99.0 from 98.8 in April.

Earnings News This Week

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Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was bearish again last week. Number of stocks breaking resistance totaled 19 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 56. Notably, industrial and financial stocks were on the list of breakdowns. The Up/Down ratio was down last week at (193/250=) 0.77 from 0.85.

Note that strength in Apple on Friday represented 222 Dow Jones Industrial Average points out of the total gain of 332 points. Without the gain by Apple on Friday, the Average was down 1.1% for the week.

U.S. economic news this week will focus inflation (PPI and CPI).

Focus on Canadian economic news this week is on the employment report to be released on Friday.

Medium term technical indicators in the U.S. (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) showed signs of rolling over last week

Medium term technical indicators in Canada remained in upward trends last week, but are overbought.

Short term technical indicators for U.S. and Canadian equity markets, commodities and most sectors (20 day moving averages, short term momentum) turned back up on Friday. However, many are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

Seasonal influences in U.S. equity markets normally peak this week, particularly in mid-term U.S. election years. Seasonal influences in Canadian equity markets frequently remain neutral/positive to early June. Thereafter, they turn negative. See charts below:

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The outlook for S&P 500 earnings and sales remains positive: According to FactSet, estimates for 2018 were raised again last week following encouraging results released to date: 81% of companies have reported. 78% beat consensus earnings estimates and 77% beat consensus sales estimates. Another 44 S&P 500 companies and 1 Dow Jones Industrial Average company are scheduled to report this week. First quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 24.2% (up from 23.2% last week) on an 8.5% increase in sales (up from 8.4% last week). Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 18.8% on a 8.2% increase in sales. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 21.0% on a 6.9% increase in sales. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 16.9% on a 5.7% increase in sales. For all of 2018, earnings are expected to increase 19.5% (up from 19.4%) on a 7.2% increase in sales.

Short term political uncertainties remain NAFTA negotiations, rising trade war fears (particularly against China), possible revocation of the Iran nuclear weapons agreement and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election. In addition, Mid-term election political rhetoric normally starts to ramp up in May culminating in October.

Earnings and revenue prospects for 2018 are exceptional for U.S. based companies with international exposure. Consensus for S&P 500 earnings on a year-over-year are expected to increase 19.5% in 2018. Earnings will benefit significantly from weakness in the U.S. Dollar on a year-over-year basis when revenues and earnings from international operations are translated into U.S. Dollars. For example, a U.S. based company with 50% of its earnings and revenues coming from international operations will see earnings and revenues increase by 5.5% from foreign currency translation alone following the current 11.0% fall in the U.S. Dollar Index from its high at 103.82 in January 2017. The U.S. Dollar Index averaged 100 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 101 in the first quarter of 2017.

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Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 4th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower.

S&P 500 Index slipped 6.49 points (0.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Note the bounce again by the Index from its 200 day moving average.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week to 47.20 from 50.40. Percent remains intermediate neutral.

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Percent of S&P 500 stock trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 55.00 from 58.80. Percent remains intermediate neutral.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped last week to 48.60 from 52.60 and dropped below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate neutral, but trending down.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 60.00 from 58.40 and remains above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate neutral and trending up.

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TSX Composite Index added 60.47 points (0.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral (Score: 0). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive (Score: 2). The Index remained above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators continue to trend up (Score: 1). Technical score remained last week at 4.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week to 67.62 from 65.15. Percent remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 53.59 from 52.70. Percent remains intermediate neutral and continues to trend higher.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 48.68 points (0.20%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Average remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6. Note the bounce from near its 200 day moving average.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks dropped last week to 53.33 from 56.67 and dropped below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate neutral and turning down.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ stocks dropped last week to 54.09 from 55.87 and dropped below its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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NASDAQ Composite Index gained 89.82 points (1.26%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral on Friday. The Index moved above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 2.

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Russell 2000 Index gained 9.36 points (0.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Positive from Neutral. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned back up on Friday. Technical score increased last week to 2 from -2.

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Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 179.17 points (1.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Average moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to -2 from 0.

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Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index gained 112.50 points (1.86%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on a move above 6,184.60. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Nikkei Average gained 4.91 points (0.02%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to neutral from down on a move above 22,500. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Europe iShares slipped $0.20 (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed last week to Neutral from Positive. Units dropped below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2.

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Shanghai Composite Index added 8.80 points (0.29%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators remain up. Technical score remained last week at -4

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Emerging Markets iShares slipped 0.83 (1.76%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Units remain below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to -2 from 0.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar gained another 1.07 (1.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Dollar remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend up.

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The Euro dropped another 1.75 (1.44%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Canadian Dollar slipped US 0.15 cents (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Canuck Buck remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Japanese Yen added 0.08 (0.08%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Yen remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have just turned up.

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British Pound dropped 2.44 (1.77%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Pound remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 4th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts

The CRB Index added 1.68 points (0.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Gasoline slipped $0.02 per gallon (0.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Gas remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Crude Oil added $1.62 per barrel (2.38%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. Crude remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Natural Gas dropped $0.06 per MBtu (2.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Positive. “Natty” moved below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 6.

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S&P Energy Index added 0.06 (0.11%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index slipped $0.65 (0.42%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score slipped last week to 4 from 6.

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Gold dropped $8.70 per ounce (0.66%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gold remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -4 from -2.

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Silver added $0.02 per ounce (0.12%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Neutral. Silver remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned up. Technical score slipped last week to -4 from -2.

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AMEX Gold Bug Index slipped 0.65 points (0.36%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up. Technical score increased last week to 4 from 2.

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Platinum added $5.10 per ounce (0.56%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Negative. PLAT remains below its 20 day MA. Momentum remains down.

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Palladium dropped $5.75 per ounce (0.60%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Negative. PALL remains below its 20 day MA. Momentum: Down.

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Copper added 0.04 per lb (1.31%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Copper remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned up. Technical score increased last week to -2 from -4.

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BMO Base Metals ETF added $0.14 (1.22%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index returned to Neutral after briefly reaching Negative. Units moved back above their 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned back up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -4.

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Lumber added another $5.20 (0.91%) last week. Trend remains up. Strength relative remains up. Lumber remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum remains up.

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Grain ETN added $0.40 (1.48%) last week. Uptrend extended on a move above $27.75. Relative strength changed to Positive from Neutral. Units remain above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained at 6.

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Agriculture ETF dropped $0.60 (1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. Units moved below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score slipped last week to 0 from 4.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 1.3 basis points (0.44%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Price of the long term Treasury ETF added $0.10 (0.08%) last week. Units remain below their 20 day moving average.

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Volatility

The VIX Index dropped 0.68 (4.41%) last week. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 4th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

StockTwits Released on Friday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Quiet. No breakouts. Breakdowns: $FLR $JEC

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‘Tis the season for Jacobs Engineering to move lower to early August! $JEC

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Average Hourly Earnings up 0.9% (NSA) in April, more than double the 0.4% average increase for the month #NFP #Employment #Economy $MACRO

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Non-farm Payrolls continue to trend above average, gaining 0.7% in April #Employment #NFP #Economy $MACRO

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Mexico iShares $EWW moved below $49.27 and $48.76 extending an intermediate downtrend. NAFTA negotiations?

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Another Canadian Gold stock breakout! Kinross Gold $K.CA moved above $5.18 Cdn completing a double bottom pattern. $FNV

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Extendicare $EXE.CA moved below $8.04 on a law suit extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Apple $AAPL, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $183.50 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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WTI Crude Oil at $69.72 and its related ETF $USO moved above $69.55 to a 30 month high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for Crude Oil and its ETF $USO to move higher to September!

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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17 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday May 7th 2018”

  1. Wayne Says:

    Bernie,
    NTR
    Read your comments about the hybrid.
    While I was in Charlotte, I had use of his new Prius. The owner had asked me to take it for a spin from time to time to maintain the battery.
    What an eerie feeling! No noise whatsoever while driving. Made me feel very uncomfortable. Talking to neighbors – they told me that they were dangerous, as walkers could not hear them coming. I guess that it’s something that you get used to.

  2. roy Says:

    Hello Ron/BC
    Any idea of the best time to buy the USD and gold stocks?

  3. Mary Says:

    Ana

    Thanks for help.

    FishFat

    Thanks for posting the chart. If I read the chart correct… it broke out of the channel??

  4. Paula Says:

    Wayne,
    RE: Hybrids. Yes very dangerous for walkers, especially BLIND walkers who rely on the sound of vehicles for orientation, alignment and surges on when to begin walking at lighted intersections. Thanks for bringing up the subject.

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    Tech Leadership – I am looking for QQQ to break above resistance 167 which it is very close to now. Tech should lead the market to higher levels.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy
    Here is a long term chart of the U.S.$ that gives a good perspective. Price pulled back for one year to its 7 year uptrendline which is also the 2009 & 2010 highs. That downtrendline has now been cleared and more importantly price has also cleared 92 resistance which has a long history of serving as support when above and resistance when below. Note the ratio charts above and see the Euro XEU even with the strong rally it had still remained in a downtrend and below it falling downtrendline. And the U.S.$ compared to the CD$ broke out above resistance in 2014 and remains above and in a channel despite the CD$ having a few rallies. These trends need to remain in place to continue to be bullish but this long term chart suggests that will occur. The U.S.$ is the world’s reserve currency and with their strong economy and attractive tax rates and encouraging business policies that should continue to keep the U.S.$ strong. Short term anything can happen as we see with Daily charts on most everything including the U.S.$. And Gold tends to trade opposite the U.S.$ but doesn’t always. They can both trade in the same direction at times. But price wise Gold needs to clear $1375 AND hold above this level to expect higher prices. Seasonally Gold tends to have a low in June/July and rally into the fall. But price is king and $1375 needs to be cleared to make headlines again and attract buyers.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17689941555&a=579408368

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69483403118&a=579408551

  7. Rol Lew Says:

    bte-t……. 5.82, up 65% since apr 1 – adds another 4% today……… not backing off, dragging the upper bollinger higher, 2014 high 49$, 2012 high 59$, when oil was much higher

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BTE.TO&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p50672158574

    vlo (refinery) on the other hand, at all time high

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a long term Weekly chart of $WTIC once again. The breakout over $62 early in the year suggested a rally to $77 resistance. This looks more and more likely. Price does need to hold above $62 to suggest this scenario. Price now is between $62 and $77 resistance and showing a loss of momentum short term. The CD$ has not responded well to higher Crude prices.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87703840731&a=579408363

  9. roy Says:

    Thanks Ron/BC – so you think this just might be the right time to initiate a buy in the USD?

  10. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Sorry if I sounded a bit overbearing in my comment last night, I’m just a very big fan of Toyotas and now hybrids. You obviously are very happy with your vehicle so I will cease with my opinion…lol!

    Wayne & Paula,
    Yes hybrids are quiet when running off the battery at low speeds and at stop but you can definitely hear them on starting up, accelerating and at higher speeds. I don’t know for sure but wouldn’t electric vehicles be ultra quiet all the time?

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR
    No problem. I’ve got many strong opinions about many things as we all have the right to an opinion in a free country. No one has the right to trash your opinion regardless unless it is breaking the law. Mind you there are a few opinions I have that might break the law so I do try to keep those to myself,lol. But the facts do state that the Japanese have blown away the other car manufactures in every way over the years. But many other car manufactures have joint deals with the Japanese car makers now so the difference between some makes and models are small. I was impressed with all the Ford Escapes I see everywhere with few negative comments. And since 2009 have a larger 4 cylinder engine that has more power and gets better gas mileage as they have a 6 speed automatic in them now. Not great mileage but ok. The newer Escapes from 2013 up are not on a truck frame anymore and ride nicer apparently but I wanted the original model as I drove a van for years and like a bumpier ride. A car I rented in Arizona was a Kia Soul and was very impressed with it even on the highway at 70 miles per hour. The Korean cars have done much the same as the Japanese and really impressed everyone. So never think twice about giving your opinion even it it is contrary to me or others.

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy
    RE:U.S.$. Always a tricky question in the short term. The U.S.$ trades opposite the Euro so what it does the U.S.$ will do the opposite as it is the only currency that trades opposite all the time the way the U.S.$ Index is calculated. You can buy UUP as it tracks the U.S.$ closely. Gotta run now but will post a chart later on it.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy
    Here is the UUP that is the ETF that tracks the U.S.$. Price is overbought from its bounce off major support at $23. Resistance is about $24.70. A pullback to $23.75 would be typical. But anything that affects the Euro will have the opposite affect on the U.S.$ and the Euro has always been unstable.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42777871774&a=579408318

  14. roy Says:

    Thanks Ron/BC

  15. Sherri Says:

    NTR
    Happened to walk behind a pick up truck today and didn’t notice the engine running at first. It was so quiet! They I saw it was a Ford hybrid – didn’t know they made hybrid trucks. It was a bit unnerving to be honest.

  16. Sherri Says:

    From Armstrong today on the USD – sort of! :

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/the-dollar-is-not-dead-after-all/

  17. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the Euro/USD:

    “We elected a Weekly Bearish on Friday in the Euro and we expect a low this week to form on a temporary basis. This is May where we had warned high volatility would unfold during this period. The technical support being at the 11876 level. This is what we need to watch to ascertain if we go into a serious meltdown.

    Look at the Daily level, we can easily see we broke the channel and the bottom of that has been providing resistance in the 120 level. At the time of this posting, we are trading at 11909. Here too, we can see that resistance on a technical basis is forming at the 11948 area.

    We see Wednesday as a Directional Change. So this could form a temp low this week. But note that the Directional Changes are back-to-back so expect choppiness going into the end of the week.

    The Daily Bullish Reversal generated from the low today so far stands at 12035. The important Daily Bearish lies at 11888. We have a minor resting at 11750. These will be our guide-posts on any crack of the 119 level.

    The real critical support lies at the 11550 level on our Weekly Bearish Reversals system and we can see that technical support lies at 11594. The Monthly Bearish also lies at the 15552 level so this is where everything points. Breaking that area will signal the start of the dollar rally which looks like it will peak in the 2020-2021 period. That will then force the crack in the world monetary system.

    For now, be on guard against a temp low this week. This will be confirmed if we close Friday ABOVE 11838.”

    Sherri – sorry no charts/pics

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