Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 11th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 5 points in pre-opening trade.
The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.09 to 78.41 cents U.S. following release of Canada’ April Employment report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a gain in employment of 19,600 versus an increase of 32,300 in March. Actual was a drop of 1,100. Consensus for the Unemployment Rate was 5.8%, unchanged from March. Actual was 5.8%. Consensus for Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 3.2% versus a gain of 3.3% in March. Actual was 3.3%
Verizon gained $0.76 to 47.96 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral.
Symantec dropped $8.03 to $21.15 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results. Stifel Nicolaus lowered its target price on the stock to $21 from $26.
Mosaic added $0.39 to $26.77 after RBC Capital upgraded the stock to Outperform from Sector Perform
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/10/stock-market-outlook-for-may-11-2018/
Note seasonality charts on U.S. Consumer Price Index, Utilities sector, Natural Gas storage. Natural Gas and 10 Year Treasury Note Futures.
Observations
Natural gas continues to try:
Inventory levels remain near their five year low despite gains announced yesterday.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2013 through 2017. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Seasonal influences are positive until mid-June
Response to the inventory report released yesterday was encouraging. Short term momentum indicators turned positive (move above its 20 day MA, Stochastics, RSI, MACD. A move above $2.844 will attract technical buying.
Preferred way to invest in the sector is through “gassy” stocks and related ETFs.
Mixed news after the close yesterday after NVidia released quarterly results! Earlier in the day, the stock surged to an all-time high in anticipation of results to be released after the close. Initial response after the company released blow out results was positive. Subsequently the stock came under significant profit taking pressure, down over 2%.
StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock
Silver stocks and ETF recording gains. Breakouts by Hecla Mining $HL and Pan American Silver $PAAS $SIL
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $JBHT $UNP $MAA $GOOGL $GOOG $ANSS
Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included XOM, MCO, ACN, TSS and SPG. No breakdowns
Alphabet/Google, one of the FAANG stocks moved above resistance resuming an intermediate uptrend $GOOGL $GOOG
OpenText $OTEX dropped below $38.59 and $38.35 setting intermediate downtrend.
New Flyer Indusrties $NFI.CA moved below $55.95 completing a double top pattern.
Methanex $MX.CA $MEOH moved above $87.59 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Finning International $FTT.CA moved above $33.35 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Enbridge $ENB.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $42.22 on debt reduction news completing a double bottom pattern.
BHP Billiton $BHP, a major base metals producers moved above $49.57 to a 4 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.
Exxon Mobil $XOM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $80.90 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Brookfield Asset Management $BAM, a TSX 60 stock moved above $40.61 U.S. completing a base building pattern.
Another silver producer stock breakout! First Majestic Silver moved above $7.00 Cdn extending an intermediate uptrend. $AG $FR.CA
Canadian Pacific $CP $CP.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $239.81 and $239.90 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Financial SPDRs $XLF moved above intermediate resistance at $28.24
Russia ETF $RSX moved above $21.61 setting an intermediate uptrend. Response to higher crude oil prices.
TMX Group $X.CA moved above $79.38 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.
First encouraging technical signs for China Funds and ETFs! $CAF moved above $25.94.
Editor’s Note: Also, showed up with Hong Kong iShares
Trader’s Corner
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
* Excludes adjustment from rollover of futures contracts
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Keith Richards’ Blog
Keith says, “What’s next for oil? Following is a link:
http://www.valuetrend.ca/more-upside-to-come-for-oil/
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer jumped 8.20 to 61.00 yesterday. It changed to intermediate overweight from intermediate neutral, but shows no sign of peaking.
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer slipped yesterday by 0.28 to 68.03. It remains intermediate overbought.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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May 11th, 2018 at 9:18 am
Northland Power (NPI.to) broke-out of a 22-month trading range yesterday. I have attached the weekly chart. Several indicators look bullish. The SCTR has just move above 75. The conventional MACD has moved above the zero level. The modified MACD (20,50,10) has recently crossed above the signal line. Both OBV and Accum/Dist are turning up.
On the cautious side, the RSI(8), Full STO and CCI 20 are overbought (but not yet rolling over). Price needs to stay above the B/O price of $23.79 for the chart to remain bullish. A pullback to the B/O price would provide a good entry point.
http://schrts.co/qZTTfG
May 11th, 2018 at 11:40 am
The Utility ETF:CU.to continues to plunge to new lows.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CU.TO&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28914341612&a=587279137
May 11th, 2018 at 12:05 pm
Here is a chart of the Russell Small Cap ETF:IWM. Price is at a triple top of $160 and has been in a nice steady uptrend for 2.5 years now. Odds favour a breakout but seeing is believing. The old saying “Believe nothing that you hear and half of what you see” comes to mind. Note the above ratio charts. IWM has been holding its own against the large cap SPY inspite of all of 2017 seeing the U.S. selloff. The theory is the large caps of the $SPX should have outperformed the small caps. So much for theories. Also note the IWM small caps have steadily outperformed the MDY Mid Caps. Price of the IWM needs to clear and hold above this triple top to suggest further gains.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20730327077&a=579408528
May 11th, 2018 at 12:11 pm
The big winner is the Russell 2000 Growth stock ETF:IWO. It has outperformed most other broad indexes other than the Dow ETF:DIA. Not included in the comparisons are Nasdaq ETFs or other volatile markets.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWO&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p41323221539&a=579408382
May 11th, 2018 at 12:34 pm
FishFat & Ron/BC,
Re: #1 & #2:
NPI and CU have almost mirror opposite 1-Yr returns. Very peculiar as both are Canadian utility dividend stocks. Apparently rising interest rates affect CU more than NPI.
May 11th, 2018 at 1:15 pm
Here is the Consumer Discretionary ETF:XLY that often outperforms the SPY. Price is at a critical resistance level within a bullish Ascending Triangle. Clearing AND holding above $105 on XLY would suggest another run higher.
The $SPX poked its nose above the 2717 level yesterday and is hanging on to that level by its fingernails presently. Doesn’t look like much conviction on this well watched breakout.(not a good sign) Would not want to see a close below 2717 on a Friday or would expect another test of support at the 2600 level or worse next week. If it does close below that level expect the financial media to feed the fear stories to match any sell off. They are very good at that and have a bag of positive bullish stories and a bag of negative bearish stories. There is always a story to explain it all away. Meanwhile I have a golf game next and a condo to view after. Enjoy the day and good luck everyone,bulls and bears alike.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65427615845&a=579408287
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p97818976729&a=579408638
May 11th, 2018 at 1:19 pm
Bernie
Thanks for #5. I wouldn’t have the foggiest idea why that is. You are the expert on that type of thing. I just look at the pictures…………
May 11th, 2018 at 2:11 pm
Ron/BC,
Re: #7 NPI.TO vs CU.TO
I have some experience in it and can give opinions but I’m certainly no expert in dividend investing.
IMO NPI is the better choice for short term capital gains while CU is the better choice for dividend growth, value and long term growth. CU has the longest dividend growth streak of any Canadian stock at 46 years. NPI raised their dividend in January this year. It was the first increase since March 2005.
May 11th, 2018 at 2:49 pm
Interested in buying AW/UN.TO in my dividend account. EX-Div May 14th. Yield 5%.
Beneficial in reg . or non- reg acct? Thinking of tax implications.
Thanks
Ron/BC what do you think of the chart?
May 11th, 2018 at 3:14 pm
Sandra,
AW.UN would be ok for income and modest growth and dividend growth. Pays interest income so its best held in a registered account.
May 11th, 2018 at 3:17 pm
anyone follow TSGI.TO? Whats a good entry point?
May 11th, 2018 at 6:45 pm
Roy, I closed a trade with it three weeks ago, but don’t like the volatility since. Reported yesterday. I could re-enter when the weekly range settles down a bit.
Rol Lew Says:
April 23rd, 2018 at 12:00 pm
cdn online gaming
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSGI.TO&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71165409505
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stars-group-inc-nasdaq-214632962.html
May 11th, 2018 at 11:46 pm
Sandra
AW/UN.to is in a downtrend for over a year now. Price needs to clear $33 to suggest a reversal back up to $36 for starters.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AW%2FUN.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75650729906&a=593953613
May 12th, 2018 at 7:43 am
Thanks Rol Lew
May 12th, 2018 at 10:47 am
Sandra,
How did it go with your call to MacKenzie Investments with regard to possible TFSA tax issues with MFT.TO?
May 12th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
Hello Ron/BC – wrt IWO is there any seasonality to that ETF or is it just a buy and hold?
May 12th, 2018 at 7:43 pm
Bernie:
Thanks for #10. It is always good to know how an income is taxed.
May 12th, 2018 at 8:02 pm
Rick,
Thanks for the Tax filing advise few days ago. I knew it was exchanged to $CAD but I calculated that is doesn’t have trading or other fees in it.
I know you trade NDX, Do you hold NQ futures or something else and roll them every 3 months? If you hold them forever then maybe sell some OTM calls to make extra $$ imo.
Bernie,
Mike Swanson is a great contrarian indicator to gold and miner,lol. I haven’t traded much in gold stocks for months so haven’t read much from him.
There is another contrarian indicator for stocks. His name is Dennis Gartman. Recently he went long and market tanked. When he shorted NQ at 6500, next day is moved past 6650. anytime he go on TV and say he is long/short, do the opposite, 🙂 .
SPX,
As per EW,Market can go upto 2760 or all the way to 2850 here on this pushup . No point being bearish if not in it As long as 2693 hold on any pull back. If it breaks below 2693 then might go to the bottom of triangle towards 2600. Mostly likely that will be BTFD if it gets there.Wave 4 sounds like is over and lows are in. 3000, here we come.
Will post if anything diff popsup.
May 12th, 2018 at 8:07 pm
roy,
Re: iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO)
Below is a link to the seasonality for IWO. The greatest seasonal strength is from mid Dec to the end of April.
https://charts.equityclock.com/russell-2000-index-seasonal-chart
May 12th, 2018 at 8:12 pm
Kam,
Re: Mike Swanson & Dennis Gartman
That is funny and good advice for traders here…thanks 🙂
May 13th, 2018 at 12:59 am
Roy
Not sure of the IWO’s seasonality as it is a Russell 2000 ETF and I believe there are a few of these ETFs. Here is the Equity Clock seasonal trend for the Russell 2000 but not sure of which one it is covering.
https://charts.equityclock.com/russell-2000-index-seasonal-chart
May 13th, 2018 at 1:04 am
Bernie
I see you answered Roy’s question. I didn’t see your post. And I’m not sure of the ETFs within the Russell 2000 group if in fact there is more than one. Like I said I just look at the pictures,lol.
May 13th, 2018 at 1:55 am
Ron/BC & Roy
Re: iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO)
Sorry to jump in Ron. Agreed that the equityclock chart is rather generic. Here’s the stockcharts seasonality link with chart specifically for IWO . Drag the slider to the left to change the yearly time frame: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=iwo&compare=
May 13th, 2018 at 11:39 am
Bernie
Oh yes,I forgot about the Seasonality charts on Stockcharts. I don’t often look at them but are handy for the odds of strength or weakness over the course of the year. Thanks for the heads up. I have been impressed with IWO but haven’t found a good entry point to get onboard. Very unusual to have a 9 year bull market with no major corrections along the way. Typically there would have been many. I think historically there is one about every 9 months of some magnitude. Unfortunately, this late in the game an assumed correction may be much more than that when it does come. Meanwhile XLY and XLI look like they are dying to breakout and run so will be watching for that. And the breakout on the $SPX had better get some legs quickly to avoid falling back below 2717. Not much of a breakout Friday. More of a nose poke and we all know nose pokes don’t count. And there are a lot of markets that have rallied and are very overbought already.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73615879902&a=579408261
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65427615845&a=579408287
May 13th, 2018 at 2:58 pm
Happy Mothers Day to all the Moms on here!!!
May 13th, 2018 at 3:57 pm
Bernie
#25 You beat me to it. I would just add: I hope all those brats young & old alike appreciate all their efforts.
May 13th, 2018 at 4:23 pm
I mentioned New Flyer Industries (NFI.to) back in March. I sold last week with a loss – the stock plunged after missing the consensus earnings estimate. I am not happy about it, but I was stopped out with a minor loss and still consider the trade a success. Winning in the markets is difficult, so managing the losses is important. I have reviewed the chart in hindsight to look for flaws in logic or for better places to set stops. That is the way forward.
http://schrts.co/wBGMLW
May 13th, 2018 at 5:02 pm
FishFat,
I also owned NFI.TO. I sold the small position I had in my TFSA on Friday.
May 13th, 2018 at 6:47 pm
Bernie:
New Flyer is still a good company, with a good balance sheet and good management. I expect the window of opportunity to open again down the road – hopefully, next time it does not slam on my fingers, lol.
May 13th, 2018 at 7:54 pm
FishFat,
There’s little doubt there. I’ve heard lots of good things on the company over the past couple of years. I thought I’d take a flyer (pun intended) a while back when it ranked high in Caldwell Canadian Value Momentum Funds top 10 holdings. I highly respect Caldwell in their selections and performance. Anyway, needless to say, I bought at the wrong time and sold for a small loss. A small loss is better than the large losses I usually experienced when I dabbled with trading over the years. I must be learning…or…maybe I should just stick with the same girl I brought to the dance, ie; buy and hold…lol
May 13th, 2018 at 7:56 pm
Happy mothers day all ladies. You are great.
NTR
Just a link I saw at another board. Tweets. Tearjerker. 🙁
http://tiny.cc/mwvlty