Tech Talk for Friday May 18th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 18th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.11 to U.S. 78.00 cents following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for March Retail Sales was an increase of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.4% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.6%. Consensus for April Consumer Price Index was an increase of a year-over-year basis of 2.2% versus a gain of 2.3% in March. Actual was an increase of 2.2%

Wal-Mart dropped $0.09 to $84.40 after Cowen and Raymond James reduced their target price on the stock.

Campbell Soup fell $2.22 to $37.00 after lowering earnings guidance.

Applied Materials eased $3.04 to $50.92 after the company reported less than consensus second quarter sales.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/17/stock-market-outlook-for-may-18-2018/

Note seasonality chart on the Philly Fed Index.

Upcoming BNN Appearance:

Jon Vialoux will be on BNN’s Market Call Tonight at 6:00pm ET tonight, May 18th taking your calls on Technical Analysis and Seasonal Investing.  CALL TOLL-FREE 1-855-326-6266, EMAIL marketcall@bnnbloomberg.ca,  or TWEET @MarketCall  Be sure to send in your video questions for priority response on air.

 

Observations

Energy on both sides of the border remains the strongest sector. The S&P Energy Index moved to a 3 year high yesterday on a move above 579.19.

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Yield on 30 Year Treasuries moved to a 40 month high on a move above 3.25%.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $TIF $COST $APA $HAL $NE $AIZ $ALB $DWDP. Breakdown: $PPL.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included EQT, CI, ULTA, MET and IR. Breakdowns included XEL, EQR, AIV and PCG.

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Long term Treasuries Bond iShares $TLT moved below $116.68 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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SunLife Financial $SLF.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $55.80 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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DowDupont $DWDP, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $68.36 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Energy stocks prominent on the list of S&P 500 breakouts this morning: $APA $HAL $NE

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Oil Services ETF $OIH moved above $29.53 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Another Canadian energy breakout! Freehold Royalities $FRU.CA moved above $13.82 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: Later, another “gassy” stock Birchcliffe also broke to new highs.

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Soybean ETN $SOYB moved below $18.21 setting intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 17th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 17th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 17th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

Keith talks about turn around stories. Following is a link:

http://www.valuetrend.ca/turnaround-stories/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 0.40 to 58.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 1.23 to 67.49 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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16 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 18th 2018”

  1. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Would really like to see 2680 today.

  2. Ana Says:

    MU

    Just some thoughts.

    The 4 weekly sma is 50. This coincides with the middle of the bollinger band which is 49.90.

    That whould be a good little bull flag.

    I have not heard of a stock going to the 4 day sma and reversing.

    Check your own charts.

  3. Vik Says:

    MU folks,
    MU could pull back but think the uptrend is still positive. Started a small position at $53.50.

    Going to try and move more towards trading US stocks vs Canadian stocks. Thanks to all for bringing MU and others to my attention. Always open to other suggestions.

    Have an enjoyable weekend !

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    A lot of stocks that have rallied lately off support are now overbought and prices along with their momentum indicators are rolling over. Just something to keep in mind when considering holding or not.

  5. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Running out of time for my previous number. Might be an I H & S to take us up first to 2729.

    Might have to wait until next week sometime to go to 2680.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is an example of overbought AND at price resistance AND rolling over of price AND rolling over momentum. ZEB.to is the equal weight Canadian banks ETF.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05148583196&a=579408450

  7. Ana Says:

    #6. Ron/BC

    Such a nice chart. I think it should be professionally framed!

    Thank you.

  8. Sandra Says:

    Ana, Ron/BC:

    Indeed a beautiful chart. Ron, your lines made it so simple.

    Can I use your settings for other stocks?
    Thks

  9. Sandra Says:

    Everyone have a great and safe long weekend.

  10. Paula Says:

    Here is a chart of XOP a US oil ETF with lots of volume and potentially lots of room to run. It is currently over bought and testing resistance so not a buy at this level. I will be watching this for an opportunity. I tried using some of Ron/BC’s settings and went back 5 years so you can see how far it has come down since the oil peek in mid 2014. Ron/BC please feel free to comment, change and add your own touches. Have a good long weekend everyone.

    http://schrts.co/wmEJSk

  11. Rol Lew Says:

    XOP

    “” Clients of mine and members of my investment letters currently own both XOP and LEAPs on XOP. Since I believe many oil stocks can double to triple in the next 2-4 years due to higher oil prices, better balance sheets and a great hedging opportunity developing, I intend to hold my positions until XOP approaches $60 per share. I think there is upside to $80 potentially.””

    Yes – Pls give me some of what Kirk is smoking! Powerful stuff!

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173618-trading-oil-oil-stocks-next-2-years

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?CNQ.TO,TOU.TO,BNE.TO,STEP.TO,CVRR,CVI,BPT,VLO,HFC,PBF,LBRT,DK|B|

    This has been a great story. You have to wonder how much better can it get?
    Nobody really knows. (long CVI – but not for much longer)

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana/Sandra
    Thanks for the positive comments. All I try to do is try to think like a technical robot and leave my personal feelings about a stock or ETF out of it. The 3 of us (me,myself and I) have our differences in our analysis often but ultimately make a decision and live with it. I wouldn’t want to get political or anything,lol. (Me and Myself Thankfully I don’t actually own and hold most of these stocks or ETFs long as I know I would typically need to believe the bullish story about them to satisfy my own ego and sense of being ‘right’. My broker decades ago warned me about the need to be ‘right’ is far more powerful than the need to make money. Ever notice once you dump a stock that has been upsetting you with poor price action how relieved you feel and how you look at a chart of it and wonder how in the world could you have held it so long as it was falling what seemed like forever. AT that point you don’t own it anymore so can think more rationally and see things more clearly.
    Ana: I hope you are feeling better. Better than what is always the question though isn’t it……….The older I get the more I wonder about that.

  13. FishFat Says:

    Northland Power (NPI.to) pulled back this week, but closed above the breakout price of $23.77. I added the “Volume By Price” indicator to the weekly chart. It shows a spike where many people have entered the trade. This band will be an important level of support. Above the spike most people are comfortably making money. If the price falls below this band many people will start to be underwater and the selling pressure will be on.

    The chart still looks bullish. One fly in the ointment is a “Dark Cloud Over” candlestick pattern formed this week. This could indicate a potential trend reversal. On the other hand, it may mean nothing, as we had a breakout of a trading range and now a pullback to the breakout price, which is quite normal. In candlestick parlance, we need a close above the high of the dark cloud to refresh the bull.

    http://schrts.co/W5HUhL

  14. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW:

    “The Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 25801 level. We are still in a consolidation mode. There still does not appear to be any signs of a major crash in the stock market. As the dollar rises, and interest rates begin to rise, the bond markets will crash. There is no place to run BUT the equities when the question of sovereign debt survivability is at stake.

    A Direction Change is now due and the next target week will be that of 05/28, with the more important target coming the week of June 11th.

    Next week we see resistance forming at 24950 level, so really a closing below that today will also signal further sideways action.”

  15. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on GOLD – important:

    “Gold has crashed and at the time of this post it is trading at 1291. We have panic cycles in mid June and a Key target will be the week of June 11th.

    A closing today below 1306 will be a warning that Gold is indeed breaking down once again. It is unlikely that gold will hold-on if we see the dollar continue to surge as political uncertainty engulfs Europe.

    The main support is still at the 1265-1270 area. This is what we need to pay attention to. Breaking that area will continue to put pressure on Gold into the weeks ahead.

    Resistance is now firming at the 1325-1330 area and 1337-1340 zone.”

  16. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri…..

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