Tech Talk for Friday May 25th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday May 25th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved slightly lower following release of April Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a drop of 1.4% versus gain of 2.7% in March. Actual was a drop of 1.7%. Excluding transportation, April Durable Goods Orders were expected to increase 0.5%. Actual was an increase of 0.9%.

PayPal added $1.05 to $82.60 after the company increased guidance. Stifel Nicolaus raised its rating on the stock to Buy from Hold.

Gap Stores dropped $2.45 to $30.50 after reporting lower than consensus sales and earnings. SunTrust lowered its target price to $29 from $35.

Footlocker gained $6.91 to $53.30 after reporting higher than consensus sales and earnings.

AutoDesk fell $6.86 to $132.06 after lowering guidance.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/24/stock-market-outlook-for-may-25-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Dow Jones Transportation Average, Existing Home Sales, Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale and Median Sales Price of Existing Homes.

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Corn ETN $CORN moved above $18.50 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 9:45: Mixed. Intermediate breakouts: $MDT $ADS. Breakdowns: $BBY $HRL $NTAP.

Editor’s Note: After 9:45 AM EDT, breakout included BAX. No breakdowns.

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Gold stocks are responding to strength in gold prices. IAMGold $IMG.CA moved above $8.04 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Norbord $OSB.CA moved above $54.59 to a 10 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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YTD change in natural gas storage still 8.75% below average following last week’s build. #NATGAS $UNG $NG-F

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Existing Home Sales up 6.0% (NSA) in April, well below the 10.9% increase that is average for the month. #Economy #Housing $MACRO.

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Interfor $IFP.CA oved above $26.50 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 24th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 24th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 24th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Schachter Energy Report

The May report has just been released. Josef notes that “The Next Waterfall Phase of the General Market Decline is imminent”. His subscription report is available at www.SchacterEnergyReport.ca

 

S&P Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 0.33 to 62.53 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 0.41 to 73.66 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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45 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday May 25th 2018”

  1. sp Says:

    Nat gas storage is low than average or previous year, do they make it up during summer months, EnCana is doing better, is it wait because oil is coming down, or better to buy small companies? thanks have a great weekend

  2. Sandra Says:

    Ana: Good morning!

    I wander if you can see annotation only if you subscribe to stockcharts. But not to worry we can always use trading view to share charts.

    I still have to get into MU, it is good one to own. very volatile but will do well if they get their forecasts right. Gets bought quickly. What is your educated guess to enter? I wonder if it will break 60.
    Everyone share your thoughts and let’s make some money!

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Re: 2 – Sandra – On buying on a “better” entry point I think you asked the same question when it was $56. It did pull back temporarily. The problem is that the undervalued nature of the stock is now common knowledge and a lot of buyers are lined up to buy on any dip. If you want in in that kind of scenario you just have to jump in at least partially. After dropping at the open the stock is now trading higher than yesterday’s close.

  4. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON:
    You are so right. I don’t have a clear strategy yet for stock like this. So end up selling.

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    SOXX – At new high going back to March.

    Sandra – You can’t invest without conviction. You will get killed if you are not sure about what you are doing. If you know it is good longer term just buy and hold and don’t trade. I tried to trade this a couple of times yesterday and just managed to get back in at same price on one and exited 3% of my holdings on another and put it into NFLX which actually is not turning out badly this morning.

  6. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON:
    I saw the same pattern. I now have a position and not trade unless I really have to. 🙂

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Well I finally bought a condo at a great price and in great shape right where I wanted to live.
    When you are on something like a dog on a bone with cash in hand and the right set of circumstances and a good game plan then sooner or later the deal you are looking for shows up. That seems to work well with everything. I’m still surprised though as it seemed like I’d never get the deal I was looking for.

  8. Paula Says:

    Sp #1 RE: ECA, I would wait. It is quite volatile and could pull back to pivot ~ 11.93, 200EMA ~ 11.71. Note these are USD.

    http://schrts.co/565M57

    I would watch FF’s chart on $WTIC and his suggested supports. Note that the chart is an EOD.
    FishFat Says:
    May 22nd, 2018 at 9:17 am
    Crude Oil, WTIC
    After breaking-out of a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern in mid-March, WTIC has now formed a rising wedge pattern. Rising wedge chart patterns can break-out to the upside, but most often are bearish. A breakdown of the lower wedge boundary would suggest a pullback to the base of the wedge. There is support at $66.85 and $61.81.

    http://schrts.co/565M57

  9. Ana Says:

    #1. sp

    We are the same type of trader! I entered hnu.to on May 4th, at 3.55 and sold this morning. It is rolling over.

  10. Paula Says:

    RE: #8: link to ECA chart did not work. Try again:

    http://schrts.co/9oAjff

  11. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – Congratulations on your condo purchase and my ongoing thanks for all your charts. I have actually discussed with my wife and son the idea of moving to BC so I can become Larry/BC but you develop so many ties that it is a really big upheaval to make such a move. I would like to live in Osoyoos. If the NDP wins the Ontario election the top marginal rate will move to 56% compared to 49% in BC. The other attraction is climate – hence Osoyoos. I think the NDP in BC, however, are doing their best to get their hooks into everyone’s pocket.

  12. Ana Says:

    #8. Paula,

    The chart that FF posted has the lower line too low. It has already broken out of the formation. Draw the line up at the bottom of the close of the candlesticks on May 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. That lower line to too low.

    http://schrts.co/565M57

    I should have commented on this earlier, but as I have mentioned, I am not well.

  13. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC,
    RE your new condo: Congratulations! May it be all you were hoping for. Many of us here will be hoping that you will not be too busy with your new project. Still like to see your pretty charts!!
    If you have time, I am sure we would all be interested to hear more about your condo…
    I tried posting this several times but having trouble with the site.

  14. Paula Says:

    RE #12: Thanks Ana, Yes, the lower line has already been broken. Maybe FF can update it.
    Sorry to hear that you continue to not be well. Hope you are better soon. Take some time for yourself.

  15. Ana Says:

    7. Ron/BC

    Good job on the condo! Would love to hear more details.

  16. Ana Says:

    #14. Paula,

    Did I explain myself correctly? Maybe not. I wanted to say that in FF’s chart, she originally drew in the lower line too low. $WTIC broke the support line on May 23rd.

  17. Sandra Says:

    sp: #1

    Ron shared a nice chart sometime ago for ECA.TO :
    http://schrts.co/WvrtFk

  18. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC: Congrats!
    So happy for you. Good things happen to good people. Tell us more..
    Seen photos of your area BC, someday will visit. Love to move to have such views and greenery with no snow.

    Ana:
    Get better soon!

  19. Paula Says:

    #16. Ana,
    Maybe I did not understand before but I think I do now. You think FF’s support lines were too low and should have been drawn starting at the lows going back to May 1st to 3rd. In which case, support already broke on May 23rd. (Just repeating what you already said). I think these angled trend lines are somewhat subjective – it depends on where you start the line and whether you use closing prices or include “tails”. I have more confidence in horizontal support and resistance lines. Thanks for your comments. Always appreciated.

  20. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Very close to rolling over on the daily chart.

  21. Sandra Says:

    Paula, Ana: Crude OIL

    Schacter on his site said oil if breaks $70 is not good. At $71 I had I read it was over priced by at least $5 and it sounded weird, but who knew Iran and OPEC would bring it down.

  22. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:

    Do you still see $47 as support for SU.TO
    http://schrts.co/Eu3GqX

    and SU-N at $38
    http://schrts.co/6qGUHC

    Thanks a lot!

  23. Ron/BC Says:

    “CONDO”
    Well I was starting to think I’d just missed the boat and I wouldn’t find the deal I was looking for until the next downturn. But I kept at it and was on every suitable listing that came out checking them out,driving by them and asking questions,viewing them and reading the depreciation reports till blue in the face. Then this one came up and I jumped on it like a cat on a mouse and after viewing it and carefully going over all the documents and history that is available today I made a very limited time offer in cash and they accepted. One thing about a cash offer is the owner doesn’t have to wait to see if the buyer gets approved for a mortgage or not which with today’s stricter regulations often doesn’t get approved, or does but the building doesn’t get approved due to the Depreciation report being questionable. And compared to what I was expecting to pay I saved $50K to $65K to boot. Still shaking my head over that. So I’ve gotten rid of a lot of cash which was making interest but my monthly payments will be just strata fees and property taxes which amounts to more than $600 per month less than my present rent. So it evens out and I’m still ahead. Now just the pain in the butt of packing and moving and worst of all changing my address everywhere.

  24. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    RE:ECA.to
    Here is a seasonality chart of ECA.to. Odds are not good for the upside in May and especially June. There does seem to be a difference between Stockcharts Seasonality and Equity Clock’s seasonality. But both suggest the end of the run up is complete. If I wanted the stock I’d wait for a selloff to $13.50 support with the RSI 8 crossing back above the 30 line for at least a dead cat bounce.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=ECA.TO

    https://charts.equityclock.com/encana-corporation-tseeca-seasonal-chart

  25. Larry/ON Says:

    $WTIC – What pounding after the Saudis and Russians entered discussions to end an agreement on production cuts! They both need more revenue so they have incentive to end cuts. The IPO of Saudi Aramco has been delayed until 2019 at least. Anyone who has profits from long positions on energy now has incentive to take profits and move their money to other areas of the market. You have to ask yourself what is going to move energy prices higher going forward.

  26. Ron/BC Says:

    Sandra
    First support for SU.to is $47 but would not be surprised to see it pullback to its uptrendline and solid price support of $43. The stock has gone vertical and we all know what happens next as a rule. And SU is near $38 support but would expect it to test $32.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08551860227&a=579408410

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31678144921&a=579408249

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    Larry/ON
    I’ve never driven around the interior oddly enough. Lots of people do move to the Okanagan area as it does offer a lot. I just can’t seem to get off this Island it seems other than by air. Rarely even take the Ferry to the mainland.And the province lets seniors travel the Ferries free too,lol. (not the car though)The NDP are idealistic as always and despite their good intentions which often seem like great helpful policies they tend to ignore the dollar cost of things unrealistically.So we’ll see how long it takes to blow the budget out the window once again. I Will have to broaden my travels through B.C. at some point. Will look into trains as they are a great way to see country side without the stress of driving. Here is a link to the Osoyoos Region and the Okanagan.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osoyoos

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okanagan

  28. TomC Says:

    Larry Re:Osoyoos
    You might want to consider Penticton. Osoyoos is small and loses alot of the population in the winter.

  29. Larry/ON Says:

    TomC – It depends what you want. We used to live in a rural area and I think we were most relaxed during those years. We now live the cliche of the money grubbing stressful shark infested city.

    I really feel taxed out. We are going to need to put a hammer and sickle on the Ontario flag when the NDP take over. Ontario businesses are going to think twice about expansion and everyone will think twice about moving to this province. Anyone who is mobile will be inclined to locate elsewhere. A Canadian friend of mine in Chicago was thinking of moving his business to Ontario due to immigration issues. As soon as I told him what the top marginal rate was he cancelled that idea.

  30. Bernie Says:

    Larry/ON,
    I agree with TomC. If I we’re looking to move to the Okanagan I would definitely choose Penticton. There’s much more to offer there and its fairly easy to move around there traffic-wise. Maybe its just me but I’ve always found Osoyoos to be dull with little to do there. Heck, they don’t even have a movie theatre. The congested slow moving traffic in the summer months will drive you nuts!

  31. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Congrats on your condo purchase. Your planning and patience has paid off!

  32. Vik Says:

    Ron/BC:
    Congrats on your new condo- hope you have many great moments there!

    Oil:

    From Josef Schachter:
    Crude oil is falling today as the bullish enthusiasm about Iran sanctions and Venezuela’s production difficulties are being offset by rising US production, rising US inventories and Russian comments about starting to boost production again.

    Russia now produces just under 11Mb/d and can lift production by 500Kb/d very quickly. As a result WTI crude oil is down today by US$3/b to US$67.70/b. We expect that WTI will fall below US $60/b in the coming month or so. How low is low is yet to be determined.

    The timeline for the low for crude may come in just before the start of winter. A good forecast for a bottom in prices would be October/November

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well I was running out of patience but I percerviered. I found this place and checked it out before my realtor spotted the listing. She said I just got lucky with the deal. I reminded her of a quote I once read that said “The harder I work the luckier get.” That quote has helped me in many ways over the years and kept me from giving up many times when it seems like a lost cause.
    Thanks everyone for the positive comments.

  34. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC: Have a great life in your new place. Sounds great. Hope it is also close to some nice Golf courses 🙂

  35. mary Says:

    Ron/BC

    Congratulations on your new home. Wishing you happiness and many priceless moments. Best wishes.

  36. Sherri Says:

    Ron/Bc
    Congratulations on your new home! Hope it’s close to the golf course 😉

  37. NRG Says:

    Ron/BC

    Awesome Ron. Persistence and patience pays off. Hopefully you don’t have to do too many renos to leave you time to golf. Is it in Victoria?
    Will you and your partner ever visit Phoenix in the winter again. My friend just built a house in Parksville and goes fishing and golfing regularly.
    Congrats buddy.

  38. Ron/BC Says:

    NRG
    Thanks. No the place doesn’t ‘need’ anything but will likely do a couple of things over time to put my own stamp on it. And yes it’s in Victoria and not far from where I’ve been renting which is the area I’ve lived in over the last 34 years. Plenty of golf courses nearby. Don’t know about visiting Sun City AZ. in the future or not. Some friends of my partner had some medical issues so haven’t been going down south for awhile. And Parksville up Island here on the Island is a great place to build a house for many reasons.

  39. roy Says:

    Hello Ron/BC
    Congrats on getting your dream place.

  40. Larry/ON Says:

    MU – D.E Shaw – American computer scientist who runs a global investment and technology development firm with $50 billion in assets recently bought 4.25 million shares reported May 9/18. According to info on Morningstar his company did not own shares prior to the quarter. Shaw is a former computer sci faculty member of Columbia U., “King of Quant” trading developing trading algorithms. Very high tech credentials if you look up his biography.

  41. Ron/BC Says:

    Thanks again everyone for the positive comments on my condo purchase. It is on the top floor and while the building faces the main road my unit is far back & on the quiet side of the building with a view of the trees and a local mountain I used to see and walk up daily when I owned a home nearby for decades. The end of the living room is all windows with a sliding glass door on the right to the sundeck which connects to a sliding glass door to the bedroom with a 4 piece ensuite off the bedroom. The bldg entry is gated as well and over 45 age so no crying babies or noisy kids. (been there/done that). And there is a rec room and workshop ground level with underground secure parking. So it appears to be what I was looking for. I’m already packed and ready to go but don’t get possession for a couple of weeks.

  42. Bernie Says:

    Sounds wonderful Ron…enjoy!!!

  43. dutchcanuck Says:

    Ron/BC
    Great news and congrats. When is the housewarming party?

  44. Ron/BC Says:

    Dutchcanuck
    I’d have to read the bylaws regarding noise before having a housewarming party,lol. Wouldn’t want to be labeled a trouble maker right off the bat……

  45. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I am going to miss all that cash, so it looks like I wont be making a money bin like Scrooge to roll around in now. Maybe one made up of nickels, dimes, quarters and loonies would work………….

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