Tech Talk for Tuesday May 29th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday May 29th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 15 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are responding to growing political instability in Italy.

Netflix added $0.04 to $351.33 after MKM Partners raised its target price on the stock to $390 from $320.

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS $79.94 Cdn) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings.

Lululemon (LULU $106.00) is expected to open higher after Oppenheimer and MKM Partners raised their target price for the stock.

Amazon slipped $4.95 to $16505.20 despite a target price increase to $1840 from $1750 by MKM Partners.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/27/stock-market-outlook-for-may-29-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Manufacturer’s New Orders, Freight Shipments, Railroads industry and Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

A Sample of Henry Weingarten’s “The Astrologer’s Fund” Newsletter

Henry is a regular contributor (as is Tech Talk) to Mark Leibovit’s weekly radio show “Wall Street Raw”. Henry is known for his use of Astrology when offering investment ideas. However, in Tech Talk’s opinion, Henry is better known for his technical analysis services that have consistently outperformed U.S. equity markets for at least the past 20 years. Adding Astrology to his services is a bonus. Following is a timely sample of Henry’s services. Contact information is available at the bottom of the letter.

 

WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK MAY 28, 2018

 

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1. JUNE  MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS

3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES

4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB

6. LETTER

1. 1. US MARKETS ARE “EASY” IF YOU REMEMBER TRUMP’S 2018 HOROSCOPE IS STELLAR

Market Translation?  Buy on Dips!

Take/Protect Trading profits ahead of June 13 FED Interest Rate Increase.

US Markets “EASY” Part II
If you remember 3 interest rates increases in 2018, not 4.
ARE WE HERE YET? "Reverse 3.10 US Bond Buy at 2.90 test"

 

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY?  A repeat of last few weeks:

1. I remain unperturbed about current market action.

2. We expect markets short term to remain range bound above 24,000; hence first two trading buys recently at DJIA 23860 & 23960 and added to winners.

3. FYI We don’t forecast a POTENTIAL trade wars until at least 4th Qtr. 2018.

Additionally, we do NOT see 4 interest raises in 2018, but number 7 in Winter 2019.

Still, given rising inflation, high geopolitical risk, trade war concerns and overvaluation, markets are likely to favor traders over investors and & range bound with an upward bias short term.

Many “concerns” mostly noise, however, one potential negative issue is November post-election issues.

 

BOTTOM LINE:

We are not likely to short before DJIA above 25,500-26,000 or short aggressively before 2019!

Proper Valuations:

OIL < $68

BP ~ 1.34

IMHO “Improper” Valuations

US 10 Year Bond < 2.96

BITCOIN > 2500

COPPER < $3.20

GOLD < 1390

SILVER < 18

TIPS > 111

TRADING NOTES

· We are hardly bearish: given the growing strength of the US economy along with sky high US consumer confidence.

· We may sell, short or protect Nasdaq when above 7550 and DJIA 25500+.

· CURRENT POSITIONAL TRADE: Double Long DJIA 23860 & 23960  Added at 24,688 and Long Gold 1290.

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Under Pressure From Trump, Saudis Put Brakes on Oil’s Rally

clip_image002[5]

 

KEY DATES:       JUNE 7,13

DJIA:                    25000 RESISTANCE?

SPX:                     2677 PIVOT

NASDAQ:           7550 RESISTANCE? 
GOLD:                 R1 1310 R2 1325 R3 1340  R4 1365

SILVER:              16.50 PIVOT 

OIL:                      SELL/DISTRIBUTE 68-70  

COPPER:             H2 2018-2019 à3.50-3.70+

US 10 year         2.90 SUPPORT IT à3.20

BITCOIN:             8000 PIVOT  S1 8000 S2 6500 S3 5000 H2 2018 à 4500 OL

TIPS:                    TIP accumulation H2 2018 à 1.11-

The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.

 

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

2015 CLOSE:          DJIA 17425 SPX  2044 & NASDAQ 5007

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1388
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

6.       2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS

At the next AFUND natural resource luncheon, we will present four companies we recommend watching/buying:

· Cipher Resources

· Phoenix Global Mining

· Trilogy Metals

· Victoria Gold

If into Crypto, our trading views:

1) Sell BTC well before late June when BTC will be hit HARD

2) Buy ADA .08-.10

3) Check out client Blakcoin,

 

7.       

8.       3.  Some believe Gold Summer rally is beginning earlier than usual.  I don’t know about that, but do strongly believe that the precious metal sector is obviously undervalued!

Despite headwinds from US interest rate rising, happily, there will be less competition from MMJ & especially Bitcoin “investors” as time goes on. While modesty bullish, we are not wildly bullish and our FV now $1390 (was 1388).

$1400 is an intermediate target for many precious metal analysts, and we agree.

None-the-less, we advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.

·         Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

·         For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Gold FV $1390 = Commodity FV: 1334 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV:1388 + Crisis FV: 1450.

Gold/Silver ratio à 69 Silver FV $20.

INVESTORS: Intermediate Term, we plan to stay LONG in H1 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers are $21+.

 

4. “To me it’s about what they do in 2019. Do they pause and see how thing evolve or do they need a modestly restrictive policy. It is more a discussion of that they do next.”

Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist, Barclays

HW: Sell in May 2019 and go away!

 

“It looks like what we are seeing today is a resumption of that high market volatility that we have been seeing since February’s record breaking spike in the VIX.  We continue to recommend low volatility, non-cyclical, low beta positions to protect portfolios against excessive drawdowns. “

Terrence Brogan, Equity Research, Wellington Shields

HW: And/or Traditional defensive measures such as call writing and appropriate “well timed” market hedged.

 

The hyperbolic price movements of bitcoin since its early 2009 inception have been very bubblelike in nature. This brings us to a key question: what is the fair value of a bitcoin? In our view, its intrinsic value must be zero.”

Stefan Hofrichter, head of global economics and strategy, Allianz Global Investors

HW:  I disagree, I see the “value” of BTC like confederate currency- hence a collectors item worth ATLEAST $100!

 

5. Should bond-market investors sell in April and go away?

Share buyback boom remains in overdrive after tax revamp

The stock market’s ‘broken leg’ is nearly healed, analyst says

 

6. THIS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK

Click Here to subscribe or renew S: front of a web link indicates access is restricted to WSNW subscribers.
Subscribers please send your comments, questions and suggestions to LETTERS.
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(c) 2018 All rights reserved THE ASTROLOGERS FUND, INC"Always a Stellar Performance"
wsnw@afund.com Phone 212/949-7275  310 Lexington Avenue Suite 3G  New York, NY 10016
Author: INVESTING BY THE STARS and THE STUDY OF ASTROLOGY
INVESTORS ARE REMINDED TO PERFORM THEIR OWN DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. ALWAYS INDEPENDENTLY INVESTIGATE AND FULLY UNDERSTAND ALL RISK BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT.

DISCLAIMER: PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE FORECASTING ACCURACY OR PROFITABLE TRADING RESULTS.
The Astrologers Fund Inc. accepts No Liability Whatsoever for Any Loss arising from Any Use of its Report or its Contents. The Astrologers Fund (AFUND) is not a registered broker dealer or a registered investment advisor. The Astrologers Fund Inc. or its Clients Usually Holds Positions in the Stocks and/or Market Instruments Mentioned and May Buy or Sell At Any Time Without Notice depending on market conditions and personal financial conditions. This Information Is In No Way A Representation to Buy Or Sell Securities, Bonds, Options Or Futures.  This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor.
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ALWAYS CHECK WITH YOUR LICENSED FINANCIAL PLANNER OR BROKER BEFORE BUYING OR SELLING ON THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE ASTROLOGERS FUND INC.

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24 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday May 29th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Full Moon Today – Strange things can happen. People get hyper. Physicians can tell stories about it.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    For all you MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU traders price has run up to a double top of $63.42 which is the March high. Short sellers should be licking their lips at this chart. So we’ll see if the bulls can blast their way through this or take their money and run and then even join the short sellers. Lots on the table for all of them.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MU&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58701209274&a=595974216

  3. Sandra Says:

    Ron/BC:

    MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU crash the gate and get go thru… got to get over double top first 😉

    For once I should have a real winner eh!

  4. Larry/ON Says:

    Full Moon # 2 – Aha! The Italians are now making trouble for markets with a snap election and scary stories about “what if they default on debt” and “what about contagion”. Time sell all your financial shares and head for the hills because the Italians are going to derail the global economy. How many times have we seen this kind of knee-jerk short-term panic? It’s just the full moon!

  5. Jeff/QC Says:

    Congratuations to all of you ! I did not make my MUUUUUVE so did not particpate. My bad!! Bond Market telling us something, just don’t know what it is yet. Perhaps violent moves end in a whimper. Just something to watch. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?TLT

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX couldn’t blow through 2717 resistance with any strength and appears tired and due for a pullback. A pullback to the 2.5 year uptrendline from early 2016 to now along with the 200ema are both at 2625 that need to hold as support and are widely watched. Major price support below that are the lows that were made so far this year at 2550. There is definitely a lack of conviction with the rallies and the market seems to be looking for reasons to selloff. The Italian election “story” seems to be the latest. It doesn’t take much if you believe in stories……………

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42448422942&a=579408698

  7. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Thinking this might be the end of the bear for today.

  8. Larry/ON Says:

    Shake Out Moves – On individual stocks and the overall market shake out moves can happen before a major upward move. This has been a nice test of the 50day MA. We are presently less than 2% from the 200 day MA on the SP500. Nothing is overbought here. The market has a way of shaking you out of your shares just before it moves higher. Let’s see.

  9. Sandra Says:

    Somebody dumped a whole lot of MU 🙁

  10. Ana Says:

    #7. Ana

    You were wrong!

    The five minute was not telling the truth about price, so I had to follow the one minute and so ending up chasing price a bit.

    Oh well, who said this was easy!

  11. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the Euro crisis starting NOW:

    “We are now trading at 11549, which is where we have both a Weekly Bearish and a Monthly Bearish coming into play 11553. In fact, in the monthly time level, we also have another Monthly Bearish at 11661. If we elect BOTH of these Monthly Bearish on this Thursday the 31st, we will have a confirmation that everything is going to start melting down very rapidly. So stay tuned. We have a serious CONTAGION unfolding.

    The entire peripheral debt in Europe is experiencing a rapid rise in interest rates. Draghi’s worst nightmares are coming into reality.

    Now is the time we begin to see the world economy pay the price of attempted manipulation by the ECB and its complete failure. The Euro experiment has been a disaster because they wanted a single currency, without any of the responsibility for debt. Europe did invade the south, promised them a land of milk & honey with only a single currency, and then imposed Northern austerity upon their cultures that produced 60% unemployment among the youth and then they fostered an invasion of economic refugees that were mostly males.

    We are witnessing the pains of deliberate political manipulation and the assumption that power can force the future to unfold as they demand. Brussels is beginning to bleed from their eyelids. This is far from over. It only gets worse from here. There is NOBODY in Brussels willing to do what is necessary to save Europe.”

  12. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri…..

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the Monthly U.S.10 year Treasury “Yield” $TNX once again. Note the RSI 8 indicator above and see for the 6th time in 31 years it has cleared the 70 level and is rolling over below 70. The price chart below shows that interest rates “FALL” for a long time after this is seen. That’s not what the U.S.Federal Reserve has been saying will happen along with the financial news media as rate “HIKES” are predicted throughout 2018 and 2019. The economy is booming with full employment so it does make sense to see rates rise. But this chart is saying rates are going to fall not rise for some time in the future. Doesn’t make sense but I’d trust this chart long before trusting the talking heads of finance. Price has been poking its nose above the 3% level several times now without breaking out and running and has pulled back sharply today. The Monthly chart suggests this pullback in rates will continue. Keep in mind this is a Monthly chart not a Daily one so isn’t super timely day to day but will match previous times this pattern occurred. One must now ask why rates would begin falling again and question the economic activity ahead. Perhaps the boom times are rolling over as well and it’s time to see the other side of the mountain.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=M&st=1986-10-01&id=p45235430993&a=579408636

  14. Larry/ON Says:

    Listen To Cramer

    Our market gets crushed and everyone acts like the world is about to end,” the “Mad Money” host said Tuesday.

    Yet “this stuff is good … for most American companies because it pushes down our interest rates. In fact, I think this European turmoil is absolutely positive for the United States,” he added.

    However, the market got slammed anyway, namely for three reasons, Cramer said.

    One, the market hates uncertainty. Second, people think that a crisis overseas will eventually mean a crisis here. Lastly, investors were looking for any excuse to take some profits, he argued.

    Once the panic settles, Cramer sees several reasons to buy.

    The negativity and fear has caused interest rates to go down fast, for one. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury sinks to 2.75 percent, which Cramer predicted last week, it would be ultimately terrific for most of the stock market, he said.

  15. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    What is your take on the $US at this point ? Do you think it is at a strong double top resistant here and will back off ? Do you think it has a lot of resistance making its way up between 95 and 100 ?

    Are you still holding onto a sizeable portion of USD or looking at converting to CD/n anytime soon ?

    Thanks
    KC

  16. mary Says:

    Sherri

    Thanks for the update and to all contributors of this forum ***Thank You ***

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The U.S.$ is right at important price resistance at 95 and overbought. Price would need to clear and hold above 95 to suggest a run to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement point at 98 and then to 100. Meanwhile price likely due for a pullback to the key price point of 92 that it has a lot of history with. The CD$ is testing important price support just under 77 cents at the 76 area. The March low of 76.29 needs to hold as support or it and the uptrendline would break down. So I guess if you could do a switch from U.S.$ to CD$ and do it cheaply it might be a good time to do it. Just keep in mind that would be a contrary trade which is against the grain being the U.S.$ is bullish and the CD$ is bearish. Might be cheaper to just buy FXC on the NYSE or short UUP on the NYSE. Or if you think the U.S.$ will pullback the only currency that always trades inverse to the U.S.$ is the Euro. So you could buy Euros or buy the ETF:FXE. At least with the ETFs there are no fees for changing currencies. The CD$ will always trade in a range compared to the U.S.$ as our trading relationship requires it. Tough call overall. I have all my RIF cash in U.S.$ and like it there.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76512457165&a=579408533

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50578456392&a=579408525

    The FXC is approaching 75.28 and the RSI 8 is below 30 so if the RSI 8 crosses back up over 30 or if price touches 75.28 a bounce at least could be expected. And the FXE is dropping like a stone despite being very oversold. But like I said it’s a contrary trade.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29053762525&a=579408430

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXE&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74108420742&a=579408292

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The U.S.$ is right at important price resistance at 95 and overbought. Price would need to clear and hold above 95 to suggest a run to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement point at 98 and then to 100. Meanwhile price likely due for a pullback to the key price point of 92 that it has a lot of history with. The CD$ is testing important price support just under 77 cents at the 76 area. The March low of 76.29 needs to hold as support or it and the uptrendline would break down. So I guess if you could do a switch from U.S.$ to CD$ and do it cheaply it might be a good time to do it. Just keep in mind that would be a contrary trade which is against the grain being the U.S.$ is bullish and the CD$ is bearish. Might be cheaper to just buy FXC on the NYSE or short UUP on the NYSE. Or if you think the U.S.$ will pullback the only currency that always trades inverse to the U.S.$ is the Euro. So you could buy Euros or buy the ETF:FXE. At least with the ETFs there are no fees for changing currencies. The CD$ will always trade in a range compared to the U.S.$ as our trading relationship requires it. Tough call overall. I have all my RIF cash in U.S.$ and like it there.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76512457165&a=579408533

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50578456392&a=579408525

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The FXC is approaching 75.28 and the RSI 8 is below 30 so if the RSI 8 crosses back up over 30 or if price touches 75.28 a bounce at least could be expected. And the FXE is dropping like a stone despite being very oversold. But like I said it’s a contrary trade.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p29053762525&a=579408430

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXE&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74108420742&a=579408292

  20. Ana Says:

    SPY

    http://schrts.co/y3pmVC

    If you join the top of the candlesticks on this chart, Jan. 26th and March 13th, it shows the backcheck of the breakout.

    I am unsure of the future price action.

    I think I have lost my mojo.

  21. Ana Says:

    #19.

    I am confused because Full Stochastics D% is sitting at 78.74 (too close to 80) and that RSI is at 48.04 (too close to 50).

    I am also confused because the 30 minute and the 60 minute MACD crossed up today in the afternoon.

    So if someone can post where we are going I would appreciate it.

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Here is an 8 month chart of SPY. Price broke out above the April high of 271 that everyone and his dog was talking about. Price stayed above for less than 2 weeks by a small amount and has just lost that support and closed below that level today. Not a good sign. There is no desire to drive this market higher. Price has pulled back and bounced off the top of the downtrendline of the Descending Triangle. Price first of all has to re-clear AND hold above 271 again which is doubtful. A break below the downtendline would put price back in the old triangle pattern and suggest a test of the 2.5 year uptrendline and the 200ema. A break below those levels would see a lot of selling for some time ahead. And looking at long term charts is very overdue. The price action over the last couple of weeks is not typical of a market that wants to go higher. That’s all I can see here and I have no skin in the game and am not emotionally attached to any scenario. The market could crash and burn and it wouldn’t disturb me for a moment. Bottom line: Watch 271 that MUST be re-cleared to be bullish. And watch today’s low for a breakdown to suggest a test of the 2.5 yr uptrendline and the 200ema.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p00077911179&a=579408339

  23. Ana Says:

    #22. Ron/BC

    Thank you for your comments, I appreciate your thoughts.

    Last night I thought that the market was not ready to continue the downward direction because of the reasons that I stated. It has been somewhat difficult to read the market lately for me.

    $VIX has broken out of a descending triangle, so perhaps this is the back check for $VIX.

  24. Ana Says:

    #22. Ron/BC

    Another something to keep in consideration is that when we get a sharp move to the downside and appear to be going to where we started, is that the down move was wave (i) and the up retrace is wave (ii) so we will get another longer move which will be wave (iii) to the downside.

    I am going with this theory and will wait to see if $SPX retraces all the way back up to 274 or $VIX retraces to 13.50 – 14.00.

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