Tech Talk for Wednesday May 30th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday May 30th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 10 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures moved slightly lower following release of economic news. Consensus for May ADP Employment reported at 8:15 AM EDT was a drop to 186,000 from 204,000 in April. Actual was 178,000. Consensus for second estimate of annualized first quarter real GDP reported at 8:30 AM EDT was 2.2% versus the first estimate of 2.3%. Actual was 2.2%.

Salesforce.com added $5.75 to $132.63 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly earnings. Target price on the stock was raised by JP Morgan, Raymond James, Stifel Nicolaus, Monness and SunTrust

Bank of Montreal (BMO $99.67 Cdn.) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The Bank also raised its dividend.

Dick’s Sporting Goods gained $4.54 to $35.02 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings.

Analog Devices gained $1.21 to $95.60 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter sales and earnings.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/05/29/stock-market-outlook-for-may-30-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the U.S. Financial sector and the Case/Shiller 20 City Home Price Index.

Observations

Greek and Italian equity markets and their related ETFs led world equity markets on the downside yesterday.

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Weakness in the Euro also contributed to weakness in European equity markets and their related ETFs.

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Yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries dropped 16.3 basis points. Bond and REIT prices responded accordingly.

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Auto stocks and their related ETF led the Industrial sector on the downside.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Investors hesitant to take on leverage in 2018. Margin debt up 1.5% YTD, well below 6.2% average increase. $MACRO STUDY

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U.S. Home prices up 1.0% (NSA) in March, firmly above 0.3% average increase for the month.

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Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $120.48 and $120.39 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Starbucks takes time off. Coffee ETN $JJOFF drops below $13.64 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Intermediate breakdowns: $IPG $PM $MTB $HSIC $JNJ. Breakout: $INTC

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Intel $iNTC, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $55.47 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Agnico-Eagle Mines $AEM.CA $AEM, a TSX 60 stock moved above Cdn. $57.97 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Another 17 S&P 500 stocks broke support after 10:00 AM. Notable were Financials: $AJG $BRK.B $FITB $GS $CBOE $GS $CBOE $CFG $MMC $UNM.

Goldman Sachs $GS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $227.40 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $189.80 and $189.30 completing a double top pattern.

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Copper sensitive Chile iShares $ECH moved below $50.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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German iShares $EWG moved below $31.20 and $31.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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More S&P Financials break intermediate support: $IVZ $MS $PRU $STT $TMK $USB

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VIX Index $VIX spikes 33% on growing international/political uncertainties. ‘Tis the season from May to mid-October for unpleasant surprises.

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Long term Treasury ETF $TLT moved above $122.09 setting intermediate uptrend.

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JP Morgan $JPM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $105.18 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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European equity markets and related ETFs were weaker than North American equity markets $IEV

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for May 29th 2018

spx may 30

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for May 29th 2018

crb may 30

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for May 29th 2018

xlk may 30

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 9.20 to 52.60 yesterday. It dropped from intermediate overbought to neutral and shows signs of rolling over.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 5.51 to 65.98 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing early signs of trending lower.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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37 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday May 30th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    Panic Over – Hopefully no one has seller’s remorse after being shook out of their stocks at yesterday’s lows.

  2. Sandra Says:

    Good morning Larry:
    I was just thinking of you. I held on!!

    What changed overnight?

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Sandra – You have to ignore the volatility and think at least six months out. This website is devoted to technical analysis which encourages people to look for short-term movements and obsess with what ifs on short-term support and resistance levels. If you held onto a certain memory chip maker great and you have to have to have to do fundamental analysis to understand why you don’t sell. On MU the only way I would sell partially is if it gets extremely overbought and we are at the top of the trend channel which will end up being above $70 Everyone wants to buy on any retreat in the price.
    Nothing fundamentally changed overnight. People just woke up and saw that stocks are on sale and now want to buy.

  4. KC Says:

    Good Morning Ron/BC,

    Just wanted to thank you for taking the time to respond to my USD/CAD query yesterday. Wish I could buy you a few beers!

    KC

  5. Larry/ON Says:

    RON/BC – What do you think about the QQQ chart? Would you say that pressure is building for it to break decisively higher to test the highs at 174. It’s starting to look like ascending triangle.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Larry/ON
    The QQQ has been stopped at 170 for 4 months now with the exception of the brief breakout to 174.93 that didn’t hold. So price is back up to 170 again bumping up against this resistance a few times recently. That 170 level needs to be cleared and held and even track sideways for awhile after to suggest higher prices and turning 170 into support. A break back below 167.50 would suggest a test of the uptrendline at 160. The overall chart is still bullish with the uptrendline and 200ema still bullish. A pullback to the uptrendline around 160 would be the preferred buy point or a breakout over 170 that holds. The QQQ is a far more volatile ETF than most.
    And yes,this site was designed for technical & seasonal trading by Don Vialoux and why it’s called Timing the Market.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54572282748&a=579408331

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Well if all I ever did was to stop you from making a bad trade or a risky one I’ll be happy to have helped.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Don’t know if anyone else is having this problem but I have to type in my Name and Mail each time I post a message on this site over the last few days.

  9. Ana Says:

    #8. Ron/BC

    I have to input the same information each time that I post.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Here is the U.S.$ ETF:UUP. Price broke out above the November high of 24.73 for a breakout of a double top. Price then gaped up to $25 yesterday and today gaped down to retest the breakout point of $24.73. That 3 day pattern is called an Island Reversal and is a very bearish chart pattern. But price is king and as long as price remains above the breakout point of $24.73 and consolidates all is well. A break below this level would suggest a correction of some magnitude and time. Price is also very overbought with momentum oscillators rolling over. Buying the CD$ does come to mind but that depends on many factors including the price of Oil and the B.O.C. not raising interest rates. I am surprised the CD$ rallied with the B.O.C. not raising rates today but this U.S.$/CD$ relationship is very manipulated for the two country’s trade purposes and is a questionable personal trade most of the time, especially with such high exchange fees.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p51218100635&a=579408309

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50578456392&a=579408525

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Re:#9
    That just started occurring the other day and continues. By the way just because the Federal Government took over the Trans Mountain Pipeline project don’t expect anything to change. The Feds don’t have the balls to manhandle and arrest and jail those protesters as they are just as left of center as the protesters themselves. They’ll just talk and apologize for everything as usual and the pipeline wont ever get built. I’ve never been a fan of protesters as they think they are above the law and hold the moral high ground. Neither is correct of course. You know who I’d bring in for crowd control……….

  12. Ana Says:

    #11. Ron/BC

    The pipeline will be built.

  13. Larry/ON Says:

    MU – Profits being taken. I’m not trying to trade it. If you cut and to your browser you can get Jim Cramer’s take on HP’s earnings and the demand for chips. It’s all good.

    https://www.thestreet.com/video/jim-cramer-on-what-hps-earnings-mean-for-intel-and-micron-technology-14605659

  14. Ana Says:

    #3. Larry/ON

    Don and Jon Vialoux base their comments on their years of research on seasonality, technical analysis and fundamentals. I am most grateful for Talk Tech and Equity Clock.

    You are getting a bit obnoxious with your comments regarding Tech Talk.

    If you merely want to buy and hold then why post on a website that you disagree with?

  15. Sandra Says:

    Re 8 – Ron/BC, yes been having the same issue for a few days now. Need to type name and email every time.

    #13 – Larry been watching the selling as well. Tomorrow MU is having a conference call where they will discuss future growth etc. http://investors.micron.com/events.cfm

    Down below there are still gaps that may fill at 55.50 and 53.70 roughly.

  16. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    If would have been so much cheaper if our “headless” government simply told the “dumb and dumber” unelected BC government and “clueless” protestors to get out of the way of the approved project and then gave Kinder Morgan the go ahead with guaranteed crowd control. This whole mess is so sad its laughable. Unfortunately, its going to cost all of us an unrecoverable $10.5+B.

  17. Larry/ON Says:

    Re # 14 – I take exception to that post and particularly with the adjective that was used. I offer free debate without bias and will point out other options besides short-term trading and will also point out some of the deficiencies of seasonality that have occurred in the past two years as far as the timing of entrance and exit points are concerned. My post #3 was in reply to Sandra who “held on” and made an observation of the nature of this blog site without any direct criticism.

  18. Ana Says:

    #11. Ron/BC

    It is astonishing to me that the protestors including Elizabeth May allowed herself to be arrested and potentially face criminal charges. You can not leave the country if you have a record of criminal charges.

    It is also appalling that the protestors trespass and put all of the workers at risk. The construction process with pipelines and all processes involving gas and oil are extremely dangerous for the workers involved. Workers do not need their focus lost with their attention diverted by protestors.

    The pipeline is not just about the workers that will be employed from the construction and operation of the pipeline, it is about the revenue that Alberta will generate. The federal taxation is required to run the country.

    The world would be thrown back some 400 years without access to gas and oil.

    http://www.collective-evolution.com/2018/02/22/what-what-happen-if-the-world-ran-out-of-oil-today-video/

  19. Ana Says:

    #17. Larry/ON

    If you do not think that it is being “a bit obnoxious” suggesting that people who follow Tech Tak “obsess with what ifs” then you are also socially unaware and socially insensitive.

    This website is devoted to technical analysis which encourages people to look for short-term movements and obsess with what ifs on short-term support and resistance levels.”

    As I mentioned prior to this post, if you do not agree with Tech Talk then go to a website for the investors who focus on buy and hold strategy.

    I will merely chalk it up to the full moon effects and leave it at that.

  20. Ana Says:

    #16. Bernie,

    You are suggesting an authoritarian government. The RCMP enforce the law in Canada. Is there a law to prevent peaceful protesting? They were trespassing, so how could the Federal Government act on this action?

    Do you not think that any of the investment will be able to be recovered? I think previous governments have invested in various industries for Canada’s future.

    #11. Ron,

    “You know who I’d bring in for crowd control……….” Who would you bring in? Are you suggesting an authoritarian government? Under what law would you bring people in? Or are you suggesting that we ignore the law?

    Just asking to clarify your position.

  21. Larry/ON Says:

    Ana – My advice to you is “Less Is More.”

  22. KC Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Your willingness to share knowledge is very gracious. However, I do appreciate that it takes away from your time and energy from other things you would rather do perhaps. I know I’ve been asking questions of you for years and you’ve always been obliging. I was happened to be in the Okanagan area for a couple of weeks. Not sure how far you are from there, but I seriously would have extended my gratitude in some way. However, I will be back there next year, that area is fantastic, met some nice down to earth people too.

    Cheers,
    KC

  23. KC Says:

    Ron/BC,

    I think I’m going to hold off on the USD to CAD, as it all seems a bit uncertain. Plus there is that 4 cent margin between the buy and sell rates. Buying FXC is a great idea, I’ve done it before. Not sure how much of a leg up the CAD would have though. Its strange that oil is dropping this week and CAD took a jump today with the interest rate being left alone. You’ve always thought the CAD is tied closely to oil if I am right.

    If and when you have some time, I would love to have your thoughts on the Canadian banks too. I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to jump in for months and was always too late. I’m specifically interested in TD.TO, RYB.TO and BMO.TO. Is what we are seeing lately sell on new/profit taking ? Do you think they would be a good entry point if they turn oversold something in the next month ? Would you rather advice entering something like ZEB.TO ?

    Thanks again,
    KC

  24. Ana Says:

    #21. Larry/ON

    I have been on this forum since 2008.

    My advice to you is “do not give me any advice.”

    It seems that you can give it but you can not take it.

    Go count your money.

  25. Bernie Says:

    Ana,

    #20 NTR
    I wasn’t suggesting an authoritarian government. I want to see a responsible government take charge and grant the go ahead for and safe perimeter for the pipeline construction that was granted approval already. Peaceful protesting isn’t the issue here. They can protest all they want so long as they stay well clear of legal access. I would hope all violators and trespassers are dealt with to the fullest extent of the law. Our Federal government is paying $4.5B for the existing line which was purchased for less than $1B a little over a decade ago. Nice profit for KML. I doubt if we’ll recover much of our “investment” back if a buyer is found. Leftist governments are notorious for losing money and mismanaging investments.

  26. Larry/ON Says:

    24 – Ana – It’s irrelevant how long you have been on any forum. If I respond to a post that is directed to me do not in future insert yourself as a third party if all you are seeking is conflict. Less is more.

  27. Sandra Says:

    Hi all: Got back just now and trying to catch up with what I missed!

    Appears full moon effects everywhere. LOL! Okay been telling myself chill chill chill!!!
    Life is only a journey! Don’t sweat or dwell on small stuff.

    Waited months to see an ENT, the worst Dr. ever! Did not even say hi or look at me just focused on his ipad on which he probably had a questionnaire and asked zillion ?S like a high speed train. So silly I am that I read reviews on rating now after visiting. 90% had same issues and said he was no help just a burden on OHIP. Such was my day! He ordered an MRI of head so he must have paid some attention. So let’s see if he is of any help to me. Can’t write him off completely yet.

  28. Ana Says:

    #25. Bernie,

    I too want all violators and trespassers to be dealt with to the full extent of the law. This is for the sake of a safe construction site.

    I too am frustrated over a government mismanaging investments. Remember when Canada and Ontario bought chunks of GM and Chrysler and sold them prematurely just because Harper wanted to show that he had a “balanced budget” on the books for the election.
    That resulting in a net loss for Canadians of 3.7 billion dollars.

    Plenty of tax dollars were provided to Ford, Toyota and Honda for innovation purposes. Very frustrating. All of it.

  29. Ana Says:

    #26. Larry/ON

    Your arrogance just persists. This is a forum. We have all been through this discussion in the past. If you wish to have a private conversation, just ask for someone’s email address.

    Just stop criticising Tech Talk, because I am tired of it. Your lack of appreciation is evident and we have ignored your previous criticism of it. Again, if Tech Talk does not serve your purpose then go to another forum for long-term investors, who buy and hold.

  30. Larry/ON Says:

    Sid Mohktari from CIBC- Just appeared on BNN with TECHNICAL analysis. This guy is really good. He called the Feb downturn very accurately and he gives great sector analysis. Basically he is constructive going forward but you have to know the right sectors. New high on $RUT is great. Go to BNN for the video.

  31. Ken Says:

    Larry/ON

    Thanks for all your MU posts as I’ve enjoyed them. Check out the 30 min 20 EMA as MU adheres to it very well. It dropped below it today and couldn’t get back above it, so maybe there will be further weakness tomorrow. But a good entry point would be when price crosses back above it and holds. Still trying to jump on the band wagon.

  32. Larry/ON Says:

    Ken – Thanks for your post. You may have a technical take on it better than my limited skills can offer. I would point out that today saw the second highest volume going back to March 25th and the price ended a few cents under even. The buyers were evenly matched with the sellers. It went down to touch the 4dayMA which it has been doing almost every day and closed higher than the 4dayMA. We cleared the March high for two days on an intra-day basis. It’s an important price point and needs to be decisively broken through. SOXX meanwhile has been steadily climbing upwards and more than 5% room to run before it reaches the March high so you have a rising tide lifts all boats effect maybe there. SOXX is not overbought. MU is marginally overbought on RSI at 71.57 causing some people to take money off the table today. My take would be that it’s always a matter of slowing down the upward move every time it goes too far either by going sideways or dropping. Meanwhile you have a lot of new money waiting to get in on a drop so if there is any selling it gets pushed back up just as your last sentence says. Watch the Cramer video with his comment he made today.

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    I agree with Bernie’s post. Our present Federal Government does not have the guts to arrest and jail protesters as they are too concerned about political correctness as that side of the political spectrum is their support base and just approving the pipeline has cost them some support of their base. So Sunny Ways does not ruffle feathers of their support base so you will not see them do what has to be done. And the protesters know this and will break the law as they believe they have the moral right to. That’s the trouble with these left wing bleeding hearts that naively believe and claim they are saving the planet and have the right to break the law. And yes I’d subcontract out the job of security to an organization that enforces the rules to the letter and uses whatever means necessary to ensure worker safety and focus. That would also let the Federal Government off the hook for any ruffling of feathers along the way. Too easy for them to do…………

  34. Sandra Says:

    Larry/ON: MU

    May 31, 2018
    1:00 PM ET
    Speaker: Sanjay Mehrotra, President & CEO

    If you listen, please post short note re: highlights. I am afraid I will be out but will try to check in to read comments if I can.

    Link for tomorrow’s conference:
    http://investors.micron.com/eventdetail.cfm?accepted=yes&EventID=188905

  35. Ken Says:

    Thanks Larry/ON

    My technical skills are very limited, but I pay close attention to the 20 EMA in any timeframe. It forces me to stick to my rules and helps minimize the second guessing. A gold stock I mentioned last week I think is TGZ.TO which hit the daily 20 EMA yesterday and bounce to a new closing high today. I was supposed to get in at the 20 EMA but did not cause it happened too quickly for me at the open. Oh well, but still a good gold stock to keep an eye on, maybe even stronger than KL.

  36. Ana Says:

    #33. Ron/BC

    So, you would like the Prime Minister to arrest and jail protesters. Under what authority does he do this?

    Our Prime Minister has to allow the Judicial System to enforce the law.

    We did not elect a King.

    I did not vote for Justin Trudeau. However, do you expect Andrew Scheer to lead Canada? Please…

  37. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    No. I’d like the R.C.M.P. or the army (if appointed to protect the workers and project of the pipeline) to arrest the protesters. The protesters will break the law and not simply observe from a distance as that’s just who they are. So if they break the law with their interference and endanger workers and stop the project they should be arrested simple as that. But the Liberals will not have the the protesters arrested no matter how they interfere so you can forget about seeing them arrested and their feathers ruffled. That’s just not the sunny ways of the Liberal government. That project will drag on and on and all you will see and hear are excuses and apologies. That’s the mamby,pamby way as they wouldn’t want to seem harsh or unforgiving would they………And yes, I expect Scheer to win the next election as Prime Minister.

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