Tech Talk for Friday June 8th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday June 8th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 8 points in pre-opening trade.

The Canadian Dollar dropped 0.21 to U.S. 76.85 cents following release of the May Canadian Employment report. Consensus was an increase of 25,000 versus a drop of 1,000 in April. Actual was a drop of 7,500. Consensus for the May Unemployment Rate was 5.8%. Actual was 5.8%. Consensus for May Hourly Earnings was an annual increase of 3.2%. Actual was an increase of 3.9%.

Randgold (GOLD $78.96) is expected to open higher after JP Morgan raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral.

PayPal (PYPL $83.05) is expected to open higher after Wedbush raised its target price to $100 from $90.

Philip Morris advanced $0.86 to 78.25 after raising its dividend by 6.5%.

Chevron (CVX $126.96) is expected to open higher after Mizoho initiated coverage with a Buy rating.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/06/07/stock-market-outlook-for-june-8-2018/

 

Outlook for Gold and Gold Stocks/ETFs

The Seasonal trade from late July to early October is lining up nicely this year. Technical, fundamental and seasonal influences for the trade are summarized by Don Vialoux in the latest edition of Investors Digest. The report is available today for subscribers at

http://investorsdigestofcanada.com/

 

Observation

Technicals for the precious metal sector show that the seasonal trade may appear earlier than usual this year. A move by the TSX Gold Index above 193.52 will confirm start of the period of seasonal strength.

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Silver and silver stock prices already are showing encouraging technical signs. Nice move by silver yesterday above $16.86 per ounce setting an intermediate uptrend!

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

MMM $MMM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $204.64 completing a base building pattern.

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UnitedHealth Group $UNH, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $249.96 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Regional Bank SPDRs $KRE moved above $65.59 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Money Center Bank SPDRs $KBE moved above $50.88 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Retail SPDRs $XRT moved above $48.95 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Breakouts: $ROST $ETFC $ICE $PBCT $USB $MTD $AGN $UNH $MAS $MMM $CF $IRM.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT breakouts included HAS, COST, A, COL, MOS, FDX, MCD, TWX, BK, MAS, IRM, MO and RF. Breakdown: BF.B.

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Thomson Reuters $TRI.CA $TRI, a TSX 60 stock moved above $52.44 setting intermediate uptrend.

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McDonalds $MCD, a Dow Jones Industrial stocks moved above $166.89 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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SNC Lavalin $SNC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $58.49 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Soybean ETN $SOYB moved below $18.09 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 7th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 6th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 7th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 1.20 to 68.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer slipped 1.67 to 67.92 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing signs of rolling over.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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7 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday June 8th 2018”

  1. Bernie Says:

    Vik,

    Re: Mawer funds and markets in general
    Ron/BC drove a point home last night about markets being quite elevated. A Balanced fund may give you a little better protection in a selloff in most cases but it will still fall in a bear market selloff. The broad equity market fell near 50% from peak to trough in the past recession. Mawer Balanced Fund fared better but it did fall 30%. We don’t know for certain when the downturn will be or its intensity but it will happen…the elevator can’t go up forever.

  2. Vik Says:

    Bernie,

    thanks for the detailed replies. I appreciate your insight. I will check out the funds from the Mawer website directly.

    Thanks for your input as well Ron/BC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Vik
    The bottom line is “Don’t let your money burn a hole in your pocket.” Cash is a position too. And waiting for a good entry point can add much to your portfolio. One can argue that you can wait for an entire bull market to complete but ‘historically’ we have major corrections often. Oddly enough there hasn’t been the typical major corrections since 2009 other than certain sectors. The closest thing to a significant correction would be from 2015 to early 2016. And that wasn’t very typical. Note the Modified MACD signals on this “MONTHLY” & WEEKLY chart of the $SPX.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1990-03-10&id=p12292603307&a=579408390

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=1994-03-10&id=p38609325139&a=579408389

  4. Bernie Says:

    Vik,

    Re: #2
    You’re welcome. Should you decide to drill down deeper about a particular fund Morningstar.ca is a very thorough all-round source for fundamentals. I’ve linked the performance page which is more up-to-date than Mawer’s performance page but if you check around you’ll probably like what the site offers. Morningstar is my number #1 source for stock/mutual fund/ETF fundamentals outside of dividend info.
    http://quote.morningstar.ca/QuickTakes/fund/Performance/f_Perf.aspx?t=0P0000714D&region=CAN&culture=en-CA

    Very wise words from Ron/BC about waiting for a good entry level. I might add the risk/reward teetotaler for buying equities right now is heavily tilted towards the risk side, ie; higher risk, lesser reward. The high tide (bull run) keeping most boats afloat may be retreating soon. Sorry for my clichés, I’m feeling philosophical today…lol. I wish you good fortune in whatever direction you take!

  5. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on global cooling….yes, you heard that right, and the coming ag boom:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/volcanic-activity-melting-ice-at-the-north-south-poles/

  6. Bernie Says:

    Re: #5 Global climate changes

    I’m no scientist but would the increased volcanic activity not affect the El Niño and La Niña oscillation to some degree?

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    You posted a link to an analyst last week and others commented on other well known analysts as well. I couldn’t help but notice that everyone of them had long periods of bad recommendations and one lost money for 3 years. This didn’t surprise me as that is a factor that I’ve always found with these hot shot analysts. They have great track records for a period of time and then crash and burn refusing to exit quickly do to their commitment and ego, taking many investors with them. Even the guy that shorted the housing market in the U.S. in 2007 and made millions had a bad track record with his recommendations after. I guess that’s why I’ve always just traded the market and never invested in it for long periods of time as there are too many variables to expect consistent returns for years and decades. But the idea of holding a Fund with a great track record and using a proven “TREND” indicator to hold or exit the Fund does seem to be a realistic way to invest without marrying the Fund and strictly only holding the Fund when the price remains healthy. Nice to see Barchart offer a chart of the Funds so one can see support and resistance. Your recommendation of the Mawer Fund group does seem like a good idea as you do track the funds well. Waiting for a major pullback takes patience and I suppose one could buy a breakout over resistance as well. But buying at support is more ideal as if that price point fails you exit with a very small loss unlike exiting on a breakout that fails and then breaks support.

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