Tech Talk for Monday June 18th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday June 18th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 19 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to growing trade war concerns.

Blackrock (BLK $524.52) is expected to open higher after Citigroup upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

Zillow dropped $2.57 to $63.00 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral.

Valeant dropped $1.29 to $25.57 after the FDA failed to approve its plaque psoriasis lotion.

Chevron (CVX $51.85) is expected to open higher after Raymond James raised its rating to Outperform from Market Perform.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/06/16/stock-market-outlook-for-june-18-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil, Gold, Industrial Production and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

The Bottom Line

Any strength by U.S. equity markets between now and mid-July will provide a seasonal profit taking opportunity. Early warning signs have appeared. Short term technical indicators for sectors and China related commodities turned sharply lower on Friday. U.S. equity markets have a history of moving higher from mid-June to mid-July prior to release of second quarter corporate results. Thereafter, seasonal influences turn Negative from the third week in July to mid-October. This year, prospects for a trade war may prompt seasonal influences to turn Negative earlier than usual. Caveat emptor!

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Seasonal influences are particularly relevant during U.S. Mid-term election years. Volatility in equity markets increases from late April to mid-October due to concerns about a possible change in political control in Congress. These concerns are very real this year. Republicans control the House by 16 votes and the Senate by one vote. On average during a Mid-term election year, the controlling party loses 24 House seats to the opposition party. Anticipation of a possible change, regardless of the final result, is a major reason for a correction in North American equity markets between late April and October.

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Ditto for Canadian equities! Seasonal influences for Canadian equity markets follow a similar pattern to the U.S. They normally peak near the beginning of June, briefly recover from mid-June to until mid-July and turn negative until mid-October. Short and intermediate technical indicators for the Canadian equity market remain overbought and are showing early signs of rolling over. Data shows that the TSX Composite Index has advanced in 13 of the past 20 periods from June 1st to October 12th. However, the seven drops in the past 20 periods were significant: five of the seven drops exceeded 12%. Accordingly, caution by equity investors is advised. Current technical, seasonal and fundamental considerations suggest that a 12% + correction by the TSX Composite Index this summer is higher than average.

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Economic News This Week

May Housing Starts to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Tuesday are expected to increase to 1.300 million units from 1.287 million units in April.

May Existing Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EDT on Wednesday are expected to increase to 5.54 million units from 5.46 million units in April

Weekly Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday are expected to increase to 221,000 from 218,000 last week.

June Philly Fed Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Thursday is expected to slip to 28.0 from 34.4 in May.

OPEC meeting to discuss crude oil prices is scheduled on Thursday and Friday

U.S. Bank Stress Test Results are released on Thursday.

Canadian May Consumer Price Index to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.3% in April

Canadian April Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to remain unchanged versus a gain of 0.6% in March. Excluding auto sales April Retail Sales are expected to increase 0.7% versus a drop of 0.2% in March.

 

Earnings News This Week

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Observations

Technical action by individual S&P 500 stocks was bullish last week. Number of stocks breaking intermediate resistance totaled 46 while number of stocks breaking support totaled 17 (including 6 energy stocks). Notably, consumer discretionary and consumer staple stocks were on the list of breakouts. The Up/Down ratio advanced last week to (260/183=) 1.42 from 1.26.

Earnings news this week is quiet on both sides of the border. Focus is on quarterly reports by Oracle and FedEx on Tuesday.

Economic focuses this week are on May housing starts to be released on Tuesday and the OPEC meeting to be held on Thursday and Friday.

The Canadian Dollar extended an intermediate downtrend by breaking support. It dropped significantly following realization that NAFTA negotiations will not be concluded in the short term (probably not until this fall at the earliest).

Medium term technical indicators U.S. equity markets (Percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average, Bullish Percent Index) remained at overbought levels last week and showed early signs of rolling over.

Medium term technical indicators in Canada remained in upward trends last week and intermediate overbought, but continued to show early signs of rolling over.

Short term technical indicators for U.S. and Canadian equity markets (20 day moving averages, short term momentum) generally moved higher last week. However, technical indicators for a wide variety of commodities (lumber, gold, copper, silver, platinum, palladium, corn, soybeans) moved sharply lower, particularly on Friday. They responded to China growing trade tariff concerns.

The outlook for S&P 500 earnings and sales remains positive: According to FactSet , earnings and sales estimates rose slightly again last week. Six companies are scheduled to release results this week. Second quarter 2018 earnings are expected to increase 19.0% on an 8.7% increase in sales. Third quarter earnings are expected to increase 21.4% on a 7.5% increase in sales. Fourth quarter earnings are expected to increase 17.2% on a 5.8% increase in sales. For all of 2018, earnings are expected to increase 19.8% (up from 19.7% last week) on a 7.6% increase in sales.

Short term political concerns remain elevated. Announcement of U.S. tariffs against Chinese goods valued at $50 billion heightened concern. The Chinese have vowed to impose offsetting tariffs. Steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliated by participating nations continues to ramp up tensions. NAFTA negotiations now appear virtually dead until after the Mexican election on July 1st and the U.S. mid-term election in November. Other issues include impact of revocation of the Iran nuclear weapons agreement and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election. In addition, U.S. mid-term election political rhetoric normally starts to ramp up in June culminating in October.

 

Equity Indices and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical scores are calculated as follows:

Intermediate Uptrend based on at least 20 trading days: Score 2

          (Higher highs and higher lows)

Intermediate Neutral trend: Score 0

          (Not up or down)

Intermediate Downtrend: Score -2

          (Lower highs and lower lows)

Outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score: 2

Neutral Performance relative to the S&P 500 Index: 0

Underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index: Score –2

Above 20 day moving average: Score 1

At 20 day moving average: Score: 0

Below 20 day moving average: –1

Up trending momentum indicators (Daily Stochastics, RSI and MACD): 1

Mixed momentum indicators: 0

Down trending momentum indicators: –1

Technical scores range from -6 to +6. Technical buy signals based on the above guidelines start when a security advances to at least 0.0, but preferably 2.0 or higher. Technical sell/short signals start when a security descends to 0, but preferably -2.0 or lower.

Long positions require maintaining a technical score of -2.0 or higher. Conversely, a short position requires maintaining a technical score of +2.0 or lower

S&P 500 Index added 0.39 (0.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up, but showing early signs of rolling over.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week to 70.34 from 72.60. Percent is intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped last week to 63.73 from 64.40. Percent remains intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

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Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week to 64.00 from 61.40 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for TSX stocks increased last week to 64.83 from 63.16 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Composite Index added 111.73 points (0.69%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up (Score: 2). Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative (Score: -2). The Index remains above its 20 day moving average (Score: 1). Short term momentum indicators are trending up (Score: 1). Technical score remained last week at 2.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week to 68.33 from 69.58. Percent remains intermediate overbought and showing signs of rolling over.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week to 60.83 from 58.33. Percent changed to intermediate overbought from neutral.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 226.05 points (0.89%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned to Negative from Neutral. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -4 from 0.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial stocks was unchanged last week at 66.67, but remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 64.47 from 63.14 and remained above its 20 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.

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NASDAQ Composite Index gained 100.87 points (1.32%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6

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Russell 2000 Index gained 11.42 points (0.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Positive. The Index remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 6.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 135.52 points (1.24%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Neutral. The Average remains above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 48.50 points (0.79%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at 0.

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Nikkei Average added 157.25 points (0.07%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. The Average remained above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score increased last week to 2 from 0.

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Europe iShares slipped $0.06 (0.13%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Units remained below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score remained last week at -4.

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Shanghai Composite Index dropped another 87.60 points (2.82%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -6.

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Emerging Markets iShares fell $1.08 (2.33%) last week. Intermediate trend changed to down from up on Friday on a move below $45.03. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Units remained below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from -2.
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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar Index added 0.91 (0.97%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index moved back above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned back up.

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The Euro dropped 1.58 (1.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Euro dropped back below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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The Canadian Dollar dropped U.S. 1.51 cents (1.95%) last week. Intermediate downtrend was confirmed on a move below 76.29. The Canuck Buck remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The Japanese Yen dropped 0.95 (1.04%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Yen moved back below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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The British Pound dropped 1.24 ((0.93%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Pound moved back below its 20 day moving average. Shor term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Commodities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

The CRB Index dropped 3.80 points (1.90%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative. The Index remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -4.

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Gasoline dropped $0.10 per gallon (4.72%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gas remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Crude Oil gained $1.15 per barrel (1.75%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Crude remains below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 0 from -2.

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Natural Gas gained $0.13 per MBtu (4.50%) last week. Intermediate uptrend was confirmed on Friday on a move above $3.00. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Friday to Positive from Neutral. “Natty” moved back above its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned up. Technical score increased last week to 6 from 1.

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S&P Energy Index dropped 17.51 points (3.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative. The Index dropped below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 2.

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Philadelphia Oil Services Index dropped 7.21 points (4.58%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remained Negative. The Index remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Technical score remained last week at -2.

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Gold dropped $24.20 per ounce (1.86%) last week with all occurring on Friday. Intermediate trend changed on Friday to down from neutral on a move below $1281.20. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains Negative. Gold dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from 0.

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Silver dropped $0.26 per ounce (1.55%) last week including a $0.78 drop on Friday. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Friday from Positive to Negative. Silver dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score dropped last week to -2 from 6.

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AMEX Gold Bug Index dropped $0.95 (0.53%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned back to Negative from Neutral on Friday. The Index dropped back below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. Technical score dropped on Friday to 0 from 4.

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Platinum dropped $17.90 per ounce (1.98%) last week with all of the loss occurring on Friday. Trend remains down. Relative strength remains Negative. PLAT dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday.

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Palladium dropped $23.90 per ounce (2.38%) last week. Trend remains down. Relative strength turned Negative. PALL dropped below its 20 day MA. Momentum turned down.

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Copper dropped 15.5 cents per lb (4.70%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed on Friday to Neutral from Positive. Copper dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to 0 from 6.

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BMO Base Metal ETF dropped $0.55 (4.60%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Negative from Positive. Units dropped below their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have turned down. Technical score dropped last week to -6 from 2.

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Lumber dropped 31.40 (5.33%) last week. Trend changed to down from up on a move below $579.00. Relative strength changed to Negative from Neutral. Lumber remained below its 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.

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Grain ETN plunged $1.42 (5.48%) last week. Trend changed to down from up. Relative strength remained Negative. Remained below its 20 day MA. Momentum remains down.

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Agriculture ETF added $0.03 (0.05%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index changed to Neutral from Negative. Units remained above their 20 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators turned down on Friday. Technical score remained last week at 2.

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Interest Rates

Yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 1.3 basis points (0.44%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Yield dropped below its 20 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have turned down.

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Price of the long term Treasuries added $0.85 (0.71%) last week. Trend remains up. Units remain above their 20 day moving average.

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Volatility

The VIX Index slipped 0.20 (1.64%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 20 day moving average.

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Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Observation

The TSX Energy Index completed a Head & Shoulders pattern on Friday on a move below194.25.

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StockTwits Released on Friday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Intermediate breakout: $CBS. Breakdowns: $NE $BBT $CAT $DE $HII.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included UA, CL and ADM. Breakdowns included RIG, AJG, ZION, CINF, PXD, SLB and NAVI

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Caterpillar $CAT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $151.50 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Natural gas at $3.02 and related ETF $UNG moved above $3.00 per MBtu extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Kora iShares $EWY moved below $70.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Emerging markets iShares $EEM moved below $45.03 and $45.12 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Russia ETF $RSX moved below $20.60 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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VALE $VALE, a major base metal miner moved below $13.36 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern

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Hudbay Mining $HBM.CA moved below 8.22 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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West Fraser Timber $WFT.CA moved below $83.35 completing a double top pattern.

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Steel ETF $SLX moved below $47.07 extending a double top pattern.

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Another base metal stock breakdown! Southern Copper $SCCO, one of the world’s largest copper producer moved below $48.24 extending a downtrend.

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Intertape Polymer $ITP.CA moved below $17.85 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday June 18th 2018”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    GOOGL – Continues its’ advance.

    Market is strangely resilient in the face of bad trade news. You have to have an iron stomach.
    From CNBC:
    Cramer on Friday cautioned against trading around Trump’s tweets and his administration’s talks with U.S. trading partners. He contended at the time that trade talks were “a work in progress,” saying investors should buy on trade-related downturns rather than fret about them.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW broke its uptrendline from early 2016 and also broke the March low of 76.29. The March low was a Fib 61.8% retracement level of the May/17 to Sept/17 rally and even this has failed to serve as support. The lower highs and lower lows pattern remains intact and continues to be very bearish. Breaking back above these price points is highly unlikely anytime soon despite its erratic nature and political manipulation. There is some support in the 75 cent range, but no important price support until it double bottoms at the May/17 low of 72.54. And I still don’t think the B.O.C.Governor is in the position of raising rates ahead to match the U.S. rate hikes. This lack of rate action would continue to devalue the CD$ and make our export business boom even with no NAFTA. Don’t see that he has much choice other than do nothing to save Canada’s export business regardless. Would also keep much of the consumer’s cash at home in the local community. That would also fit well with the recent public rejection of U.S. policies and attitudes.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50578456392&a=579408525

  3. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC and Bernie, thanks for the comments re RRSP to RRIF conversion. I guess there are different points of view, just like in the market. I plan to meet with my accountant soon and go over this question again.

  4. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    Re: single plane swing
    If you want more info and don’t mind putting up with the “hard sell” there are plenty of free clips and tips available via the link below and through their newsletters. The origin of the swing was with Canadian pro Moe Norman who passed away, I believe, in 2004.
    http://moenormangolf.com/

  5. Bernie Says:

    Paula,

    Re: #3
    Consulting with your accountant is a very good idea! There’s no cut and dried solution for all in this process…too many moving parts at play.

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    SHOP.TO – Looking toppy at the top of the long-term trading channel and at RSI 77. Appreciate anyone looking at the chart who would confirm my assessment.

  7. rick Says:

    Paula ,

    RIF was invented to force people to remove funds from RRSP and pay taxes on those money .
    Because RRSP is a tax deferral vehicle not tax exemption vehicle like TFSA.
    Without RIF probably some investors will postponed those taxes until their survival spouse will die . The survival spouse will get the RRSP funds tax free but not the kids .
    So there is no advantage to open an RIF before 71 .
    If you need money before that age , you can easily remove funds from RRSP .
    Of course the bank will take some taxes (up to 30 % depend of the amount and province- Quebec is different a little bit ) but when you will do your taxes next year that will be balanced and you can get something back .
    https://www.taxtips.ca/rrsp/rrif-minimum-withdrawal-factors.htm

    Actually some financial advisers recommend to remove funds from your RRSP before 71 ( when you will be forced to take money ) IF = a big IF = your net income BEFORE adjustments (line 234 on your tax return ) will be higher than 75.910 $
    Why ? OAS clawback ( OAS is not a huge amount anyway )

  8. rick Says:

    https://www.taxtips.ca/seniors/oas-clawback.htm

    https://www.canada.ca/en/services/benefits/publicpensions/cpp/old-age-security/payments.html

  9. rick Says:

    Paula ,

    The question is : what other retirement income you will have at 71 beside RRSP

    1.If you will have ONLY the RRSP =
    1.437.689,30 ( yes ,over a million $ ) multiply by
    0,0528 ( the RIF factor for 71 years old ) = 75.910 $ that you have to withdraw from RIF = no OAS clawback
    so under 1.437.689 in RRSP total funds will be no OAS clawback
    over …. clawback

    Keep in mind that RIF factor is going up every year , at 95 will be 0,2
    So the government is trying to force you to take almost all money out before you will die and pay taxes on them obviously

    2. If you have other income ( CPP and other sources like capital gains ….)
    lets say the other income will be 40.000 $ per year =
    680.113 $ in RRSP multiply by 0,0528 ( the RIF factor ) = 35.810 $ that you have to withdraw from RIF
    You add there the other 40.000 $ retirement income = 75.910 $ = NO OAS clawback
    so under 680.113 $ in RRSP at 71 you will have no OAS clawback
    above that amount = clawback

    But OAS is only around 7.080 $ per year .
    If a retired person will make above 75.910 $ per year than he/she can renounce to OAS wich is only 7080/75.910 = 9.4 %

  10. Paula Says:

    Rick, the detailed response you gave is great! And the links! Thanks so much! I seem to have some reading and arithmetic to do…

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie NTR
    Thanks for the link. I was at a golf course club house today for coffee and was going to ask an instructor about the Single Plane Swing but I knew if he did teach it I’d be there with bells on to learn it and my back is only close to being ok. A couple more days it should be ok as long as I don’t find something to lift etc. It sounds very sensible and sustainable. I know a lot of people that used to golf quit just because of hip and back problems so in retirement it’s wise to learn a better way to do things without straining the back or hip. By the way a lady (forget her name as usual) posted a pain medication cream on this site some time ago that I use all the time on my stiff neck or other muscle pain called Ancient Minerals. It is a good product for anything like that and basic arthritis.

  12. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    NTR
    You’re welcome. I don’t know if you’ll be able to find personal instruction in Canada on the single plane swing outside of Ontario. If not in BC, I think the closest location to you might be in the Seattle area. I suggest trying it out on your own first and then, if interested, go for the lessons.

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