Tech Talk for Friday June 29th 2018

Daily Reports Add comments

 

Don Vialoux on Michael Campbell’s Money Talks

Join us tomorrow (Saturday) on Radio CKNW at 9:00 AM EDT Vancouver time (Noon Toronto Time) at

https://globalnews.ca/radio/cknw/player/?gref=cknw&cmpid=subnav-radio#/

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Tech action by S&P stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $MKC $ACN. Breakdowns: $WBA $CAH $CI $MCK $VAR $FDX $KSU $TEL $TSS $EMN $URI $A $BLK

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More S&P 500 stocks break intermediate support after 10:00: $CMG $PHM $L $STI $ITW $IPGP.

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Walgreen $WBA, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $61.19 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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BlackBerry $BB.CA $BB, a TSX 60 stock moved below $12.85 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Extendicare $EXE.CA moved below $7.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Financials SPDRs $XLF moved below $26.35 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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BMO Base Metals ETF $ZMT.CA moved below $10.93 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Birchcliffe Energy $BIR.CA, a “gassy” stock moved above $4.89 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Enbridge $ENB.CA, a TSX 60 stock completed a Reverse Head & Shoulders pattern on a move above $42.88.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for June 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for June 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for June 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Josef Schachter’s Energy Report

Canada’s top energy analyst, Josef Schachter just released his June newsletter. He remains neutral for value and negative for sentiment and technicals. Services by subscription are available at

https://www.schachterenergyreport.ca/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer added 3.80 to 52.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped another 2.31 to 58.02 yesterday. It changed to intermediate neutral from intermediate overbought, but continues to trend down.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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19 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday June 29th 2018”

  1. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Thoughts on BCE.TO please please ? This up n down motion is getting under my skin while waiting on the yield lol. I see it tapped the uptrend line today. Is it heading down to 52.20 again ? 🙁 There is another dividend payout in July.

    Thanks,
    KC

  2. Dave Leigh Says:

    BCE, “the trend is your friend” and BCE trend is broken. I owned it and sold it. AT&T and Comcast in the US are acting poorly as well. My guess is ‘streaming’ is taking a chunk out of these kinds of companies (look at Netflix). Who wants to own a satellite dish or cable? Companies in this space are desperately trying to stay in the game by buying content. Nice yield but it needs to hold or go up for me to own it IMO.

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    BCE.to has formed a large Inverse H&S or a large W pattern with a clear resistance line at $54.75 that it needs to clear to expect a significant rally. That pattern is bullish but many bullish patterns fail to clear their resistance lines and are only a heads up ahead of time. Price must clear this price point AND hold to be bullish. Seasonal charts show price does outperform its Sector AND the broad market from the end of June through October so it’s worth watching for a breakout over $54.75. You can see solid support at $52 as well which would be a buy price point also. The 20,50,1 Modified MACD has rallied back to the zero line and ‘appears’ to be rolling over which is bearish. Need to see that line cleared as well. Bottom line: Support is $52 and resistance is $54.74 which are the two price points to watch. Price is acting like it wants to test support. Also note the above ratio charts and see that T.to has consistently outperformed BCE.to. So has FTS.to for the most part.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80300472886&a=579408676

    https://charts.equityclock.com/bce-inc-tsebce-seasonal-chart

  4. KC Says:

    Dave , Ron,

    Highly appreciate your insight. Thank you for taking the time.

    Cheers
    KC

  5. KC Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Do you think this $CAD uptick has legs to carry on and break above the last Fib retracement resistance and uptrend line resistance? Or this just a one day wonder and down trend will resume?

    Thanks again,
    KC

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The $CDW broke its two and a half year uptrendline as well as broke below the Fib 61.8% retracment level which suggests a full retracement. Price also broke below the March low of 76.29 and since September of last year continues to have lower highs a lower lows. And looking at a ratio chart of the $CDW and $WTIC you can see price can’t even hold its own with Crude. Nothing much bullish about this chart at all. Not surprising either really. With the U.S.raising interest rates and their booming economy I don’t expect Stephen Poloz to match those rate hikes in Canada as he is out of ammo as far as what he can do with the CD economy. The Canadian federal government is and has been spending money far faster than it is making it and the only thing Poloz can do with federal rising deficits is to do nothing and let the CD$ fall. This will help Canada export its goods regardless of NAFTA issues and keep heavily indebted Canadians from going bankrupt from higher rates. So while the CD$ will bounce around as usual I don’t expect it to rally strongly for a variety of reasons. Watch price resistance at the March low of 76.29 and the downtrendline resistance. That area would need to be cleared and held to suggest strength on the upside.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50578456392&a=579408525

  7. Sherri Says:

    Closed under ONE of Armstrong’s Weekly Bearish numbers, 24386, showing weakness. Support in July for the DOW on a monthly basis is 23300. He focuses on the DOW as that is where the big, international money goes.

    For what it’s worth, Armstrong has the Canadian dollar breaking out at the moment but shows an August target/important turning point, can be a high or low.

    Happy to be Canadian on Canada Day!! Enjoy 🙂

  8. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri……

  9. JP/BC Says:

    Thanks Sherri re: #7. When Armstrong says “he has the Canadian dollar breaking out at the moment” what does he mean?

  10. Mary Says:

    Sherri

    Thanks for the update.

    Ana:

    Hope all is well with you and you start to communicate here again.

    Proud to be a Canadian …”Happy Canada Day” to all.

  11. FishFat Says:

    TransCanada Corp (TRP) has formed a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on the NYSE. A breakout of the pattern plus a hold above minor resistance at US$43.50 may suggest a potential rally.

    On the daily chart the several indicators are bullish, the MACD has recently moved above the zero-level and the SCTR has just crossed above the 25-level.
    http://schrts.co/JK3jkP

    On the weekly the RSI(21) is still bearish, but would likely turn bullish on a breakout of the chart pattern. Notice the 20,50,10 MACD is also set to make a bullish crossover of the signal line.
    http://schrts.co/XweQHs

    Seasonality is positive from the end of June to the end of September.
    http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/TRP.PNG

  12. Sherri Says:

    Re #7

    I got that from his Global Market Watch but it was NOT the month end number, and I think it was being affected by the little pop in the Canadian dollar. So, I think the info to
    take away is this from June 30th. Remember, he says major trends are monthly and anything else is just noise.

    “Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 12514 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend.
    A possible change in trend appears due come August in US Dollar v Canadian Dollar Spot so be focused.”

    I recommend listening to Greg Weldon, which is available on Michael Campbell’s website, but I think you have to subscribe to the Investor’s Edge. Greg is VERY bearish on commodities, the Canadian dollar AND the TSX 60 which made an island reveral. He’s a macro/big picture guy.

  13. JP/BC Says:

    Thanks Sherri re #12!

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    It seems like a variety of hot shot guru types are predicting a rallying CD$ along with U.S.$ weakness from what I’ve come across recently. The charts do not agree with this scenario for the CD$ but I guess that can change. Price would need to clear and hold above 76.29 for starters and above the broken uptrendline at roughly 76.50 as well to suggest a reversal back up is likely. Seeing is believing………….

  15. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re: #6 & #14
    Your assessment makes perfect sense. As you pointed out, the two and a half year uptrend has been broken. It may be that the price may rally only far enough to test the backside of the uptrend.

    An alternative view may be that since the ultimate low in January 2016 the CDW$ has been making higher highs and higher lows. Also, over the past eleven months a price channel has been established. The CDW$ is currently at the bottom of the channel and a bullish engulfing candlestick has formed – suggesting a short term rally of some sort.

    Either way, the CDW$ looks to be moving sideway since early 2015. I agree it is difficult to get too bullish about it just yet.
    http://schrts.co/ao2PKj

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    The Weekly chart is more bullish with some potential to rally as it is at the bottom of its falling channel and the RSI 8 is typically calling for at least a ‘bounce back’ of some degree. Plus the other positive points on the Weekly chart as well. Seasonal trends show the CD$ strength is from Jan to mid July so its strength is typically near the end of its seasonal trend. And while I try not to get caught up in fundamentals as they can change in a heartbeat and are often exaggerated I don’t think one could be bullish with present fundamentals on the CD$. On your Weekly chart what one would watch for would be clearing the top of its falling channel to suggest a rally to 83-84 which is the depth of its channel and price resistance. What would increase the odds of a rally like this would be to see price clear 76.29 AND 76.50. Clearing those price points just might be a good trade to get on for a ride to 83-84. The question is just how to do it as the standard exchange rate is 2 cents each way. I guess one can always buy FXC. Only did that a couple of times but prefer just exchanging the currency. Hard to believe some currency exchange company doesn’t want to deal with active currency exchange customers and offer a low rate of exchange such as .50 which would see a lot of customers switching back and forth often. With a fee of 2 cents most won’t be switching and currency companies wont be making a dime on those that would like to.

    https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-dollar-forex-fxcad-seasonal-chart

  17. JP/BC Says:

    Although charts still tell the story, currency exchange levels have an added unpredictability introduced by politics. For example: is Trump seriously thinking about putting tariffs on automotive parts and vehicles produced in Canada or is it just a negotiating ploy? It seems the forex markets are currently counting on the latter. The truth on this will greatly impact the $CAD. What if they are wrong and Trumps threats become reality?
    Black swan events like this can change the direction of a currency overnight.

  18. Muntazir Janmohamed Says:

    HAPPY CANADA DAY TO ALL.

    RolLew,

    sent you emails

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    JB/BC

    Yes it’s just like Mario Draghi talking about easing or tightening policies and seeing the Euro rising or falling on the comments. And the U.S.$ trades opposite the Euro so responds to the comments. And the CD$ responds to the U.S.$. These big shots are always playing a currency game. Thankfully there are long term charts for a more realistic guide determined by investors with more than short term politics in mind.

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