Tech Talk for Thursday July 12th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday July 12th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 15 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 225,000 versus 232,000 last week. Actual was 214,00. Consensus for the June Consumer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in May. Actual was an increase of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the June Consumer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in May. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.

Costco added $0.45 to $211.40 after JP Morgan raised its target price to $227 from $212.

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Delta Airlines advanced $0.88 to $50.72 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

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CA Inc added $6.81 to $44.02 and Broadcom dropped $24.99 to $218.45 after Broadcom offered to purchase CA Inc. for $45.00 per share cash. Value of the offer is $18.9 billion

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Netflix slipped $0.85 to $417.80 after UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/07/11/stock-market-outlook-for-july-12-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Utilities sector, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply, Crude Oil, Job Openings, Producer Price Index, Wholesale Sales and Wholesale Inventories.

 

Observations

Commodity prices including grains, crude oil, copper and precious metals virtually collapsed yesterday. The CRB Index dropped by 2.75% and its related ETF, GSG plunged 4.06%.

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Weakness in crude oil prices was particularly notable. Despite a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories reported early yesterday, crude oil plunged over 5% on rumors that Russia may be willing to raise production.

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The Japanese Yen broke support at 89.92 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Turkey iShares $TUR moved below $28.24 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout: $ILMN. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included $DIS $FAST $RSG $MA. No breakdowns.

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Restaurant Brands Int’l $QSR.CA $QRS, a TSX 60 stock moved above $81.81 Cdn on Tim Horton expansion into China news.

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Thomson Reuters $TRI.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $54.29 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Walt Disney $DIS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $108.62 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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US #PPI for All Commodities up 4.0% (NSA) in first half of year, well above 2.7% increase that is average for the period. $MACRO #Inflation

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Yesterday’s #JOLTS report showed that Openings fell by 0.5% more than average in May, the result of very strong hiring activity. $MACRO

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#Wholesale #Sales surge in May, up 10.0% (NSA), well above 2% average increase for month. Inventories -0.6% vs. -0.7% avg. $MACRO #Economy

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Jump in production of Gasoline to the highs of the year helping to draw on Oil stockpiles in the latest week. $USO $CL_F $XLE $XOP

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 10.00 to 61.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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TSX Momentum Barometer

The Barometer dropped 8.75 to 61.67 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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5 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday July 12th 2018”

  1. sp Says:

    Oil price dropped yesterday, while inventory was down too. but not knowing of Russia’s comment. CPG.to holding but not moving even with oil price had correction, any thought. I have a option to sell and book loss or buy and lower my price and hope it can workout.
    all your above chart indicates inflation is their and economy is slowing. adding bonus is NAFTA and TARRIF creates more uncertainty. Do you like to share your ideas how to protect and grow portfolio.
    Have a wonderful trading day.
    enjoy your comments

  2. np Says:

    H.to. Is it time to take position or wait to settle the dust? thanks

  3. KC Says:

    Dear Ron of BC,

    Any thoughts about $CDW breaking support and staying below ? Does your crystal ball, lol, tell you…. Are we to see a resumption of downtrend ? Should we expect a double bottom at $74.90 area ?

    Thank much,
    KC

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    $CDW broke its 2.5 year uptrendline from early 2016 and broke below the March low. That was just before the B.O.C. raised the bank rate .25% and since then the $CDW is still spinning its wheels below 76 inspite of the rate hike. Both the previous uptrendline and March low are now resistance and the short sellers will be shorting it there. Price is also underperforming $WTIC as well despite strong Oil prices. And the 20ema is below the 50ema and the 50ema is below the 200ema. She’s a sick puppy Charlie Brown. Price would need to clear 77 cents to get out of the woods. Even if it could hold above 76.50 it would be a positive step and suggest a little consolidation before attempting to clear 77 and ‘possibly’ run to 79-80. Seasonal trends don’t look good for the CD$ from here either. And like all prices the only thing that will make price go up is “More buyers than sellers!” Everything else is just another ‘story’…………… I’m sure someone can come up with a bed time story for the CD$ that will allow everyone to sleep better. Myself I like my U.S.$ so sleep well all the time. Just wish there was an inexpensive way to switch currencies back and forth like the good old days.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64290519481&a=579408525

    https://charts.equityclock.com/canadian-dollar-forex-fxcad-seasonal-chart

  5. KC Says:

    ROnBC,

    Thanks for the run down on cdw.

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