Tech Talk for Wednesday July 18th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday July 18th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 3 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the June Housing Start report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a slip to 1.32 million units from lower revised 1.337 million units in May. Actual was 1.173 million units.

Google dropped $6.44 to $1206.64 after the European Union issued a $5 billion fine against the company for anti-competitive activity.

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CSX gained $2.06 to $66.50 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.

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United Continental advanced $2.99 to $75.61 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter sales and earnings.

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Morgan Stanley added $1.48 to $50.66 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter sales and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/07/17/stock-market-outlook-for-july-18-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Industrial Production and Manufactured Goods Sales

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

First Majestic Silver $FR.CA $AG moved below $9.50 Cdn. setting an intermediate downtrend.

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TMX Group $X.CA moved above $86.98 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bearish. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdowns: $DISH $NFLX $MRO.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included LUV, TSCO, LEN, TRIP, GLW, INTU. Breakdowns: BHGE, DISCK

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Brazil iShares $EWZ moved above $34.09 completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for strength for Brazil equities and related ETFs to move higher to the end of December!

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Bank of Montreal $BMO.CA $BMO, a TSX 60 stock moved above $103.89 Cdn. to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Fairfax Financial $FFH.CA moved below $699.30 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Metro $MRU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $45.31 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Canada Manufacturing Sales up 10.7% (NSA) in May, almost double the 5.4% increase that is average for the month. $MACRO #CDNecon #CAD

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Industrial Production up 3.3% (NSA) In June, better than the 2.9% average increase for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Manufacturing

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Obsidian Energy $OBE.CA moved below $1.38 completing a double top pattern.

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Trader’s Corner

Note changes in Seasonal ratings effective today. More information and charts are offered in tomorrow’s TechTalk.

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for July 17th 2018

spx for july 18 letter

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for July 17th 2018

crb for july 18

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for July 17th 2018

xlk for july 18

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.80 to 64.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 4.75 to 64.17 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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8 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday July 18th 2018”

  1. KC Says:

    GOod Morning RonBC,

    Noted your comments on Gold and USD in yesterdays blog. Wondering if you could possibly comment on whether you are looking at converting USD to CDW to capture some gains, or whether you would buy FXC or buy some kind of Gold related etf, if you feel USD will drop. What are your seasonal thoughts on USD and what it may do with relation to any US political unrest or possible impeachment news?

    USD holdings or cash has seen paper increases as you have probably noticed as well. Would be nice to cash in on that. However, in past weeks you have also commented on how USD is good to hold. However, whats the point of just holding it if we cant cash in on the gains? Consequently, i think its perfect timing to ask what your actions are likely to be within the next 2 to 4 weeks on your USD cash?

    Would appreciate your thoughts please. I suspect others here who value your opinion wilo be eager to hear as well.

    Thanks
    KC

  2. KC Says:

    RonBC,

    Reposting your last recorded 20 yr snapshot of USD for others who may be interested. Would appreciate your updated comments on this chart too. Once again proving you are a valued resource to this blog.

    http://schrts.co/atVY9R

    One more technical question, do you consider lower lows and lower highs as a indication of dowside just on price, or do you also read it on things like RSI as a forecasting on whats to come?

    Hope that link works.

    Cheers,
    KC

  3. KC Says:

    RonBC,

    Just noticing that the CDW as well seasonally sees a dip from july into late august much like the USD. I guess that somewhat adds weight to the fact that Gold sees its uptrend? *thought bubble* on what to do here. :). Getting trigger itchy.

    KC

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    First of all KC my opinion is just ‘another’ one. And like the old saying goes “Opinions are like xxs xxxxs……we all have one,lol. But from my point of view the U.S.$ must hold above the breakout point of 91 but is bumping significant price resistance at 95 which the chart shows. The CD$ does not always trade inverse to the U.S.$. The Euro does though as it the the major component in a basket of currencies compared to the U.S.$. But you can see the U.S.$ bottomed and is in a steady multi year uptrend. The ratio charts above show the strength of the U.S.$ as well. Fundamentally the U.S. is booming away with its pro business lower taxes and lower regulations etc while Canada is doing the opposite and running massive deficits and increasing regulations etc etc. The CD$ broke its 2.5 year uptrendline from early 2016 and broke below the March low support. That is very bearish and not just a dip. As far as what to do about U.S.$ resistance at 95 I don’t want to exit the uptrend it’s in and the strong fundamental position it’s in world wide. And I don’t want to invest in the CD$. So I’ll just watch Gold as it is overdue for a bounce in this time frame which typically sees a low and the indicators are suggesting capitulation in $GOLD with a bounce back soon. I might nibble on the odd stocks like AEM but need to see price starts something concrete before getting too serious. At this stage of my life I don’t have to do anything and often find that is the best steady as she goes policy.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30895139417&a=579408368

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07908779535&a=579408594

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    I should add that looking at the long term chart of the U.S.$ you can see if/when price clears 95 that would project a rally to 102. Also note on the CD$ chart how the CD$ has been under performing WTIC as well.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Lower lows and lower highs are good for showing the trend as the lower low shows the last low did not hold as support and the lower high shows the rally off that low did not see buyers as bullish. Then the lower lows puts all those previous buyers of the stock even deeper underwater. That trend will see investors and traders avoid or sell the stock or even short it in its downtrend. The RSI and other momentum indicators are more for short term trading or getting in at a short term low in a stock you wish to buy and hold for while. Very good for a better entry in a stock in an uptrend but at a short term low. Day traders and swing traders use these short term momentum indicators to show oversold and overbought and buy and sell using them along with price action.

  7. KC Says:

    ROnBC,

    Thank you for all that! You can feel assured, that i take your words as an opnion that speaks from experience. If i ever act on it, it will be because i have chosen to act from my own decisions.

    Cheers,
    KC

  8. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong DOW this week:

    “The risk that this week can present the July high remains intact. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at 25800 and that is what we need to close above to keep the rally moving. But the consolidation people is not complete. We still see the risk of the market declining to retest the breakout support going into October. We will be preparing a special video for those who took the Share Market Report. The key daily target this week is today the 18th followed by the 23rd/24th. A daily closing back below 24800 will warn that a retest of support is likely.”

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