Tech Talk for Friday August 3rd 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday August 3rd

Equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 2 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for July Non-farm Payrolls was 193,000 versus an upwardly revised 248,000 in June. Actual was 157,000. Consensus for July Unemployment Rate was a slip to 3.9% from 4.0% in June. Actual was a slip to 3.9%. Consensus for July Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in June. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for June Trade Deficit was $46.0 billion versus $43.1 billion in May. Actual was $46.3 billion.

The Canadian Dollar moved slightly higher to U.S. 76.92 cents following release of the June Merchandise Trade report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a deficit of $2.3 billion versus a deficit of $2.8 billion in May. Actual was a deficit of $630 million.

Symantec plunged $2.28 to $18.60 after reporting lower than consensus quarterly results. The company also lowered its guidance.

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CBS (CBS $52.72) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus second quarter earnings.

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American International Group dropped $2.21 to $52.95 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter earnings.

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Callaway Gold gained $1.48 to $21.10 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter results.

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Next Tech Talk report

Tech Talk will be publishing over the Canadian August provincial holiday weekend with Next report being released on Monday August 6th

 

Observations

U.S. natural gas inventories are setting new five year lows for this time of year (and the potential impact of hurricane season on Gulf coast production has yet to surface).

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Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2013 through 2017. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.


StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

United Kingdom iShares $EWU moved below $34.19 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Rio Tinto $RIO moved below $52.98 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Nutrien $NTR $NTR.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $54.77 and $55.29 U.S. to a 3 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Gildan Activewear $GIL.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $38.27 and $39.33 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Tech action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $CLX $REGN $CF. Breakdowns: $MGM $$TRIP $WYMM $K $HFC $WLTW $ICE $UNUM $CTSH $NEM

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included ECL, EQIX, MO and DVA. Breakdowns included FMC and SEE.

Wheat ETN $WEAT moved above $7.09 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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New Flyer Industries $NFI.CA moved above $50.97 setting intermediate uptrend.

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National Bank $NA.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.42 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Equities and Related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 2nd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.80 to 64.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.50 to 53.75 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and

trending down.

 

 

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Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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16 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday August 3rd 2018”

  1. Ron/BC Says:

    The Gold Stock ETF:GDX is bouncing off its 18 month channel bottom and is oversold. “Should be” good for a bounce back. The U.S.$ is also at resistance and spinning its wheels at 95 resistance and if it pulls back at all Gold related markets should rally. Also August and September are the strongest months of the year historically. With precious metals being such a disappointment for some time now and a high short interest in them this ‘could be’ a good time to get long something in this group………….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46578135405&a=579408519

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03534365996&a=579408505

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    One more chart to post for the believers before getting serious about a golf game. Interesting chart of XIU.to using the long term Modified MACD-50,200,1……20. Note the arrows below.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XIU.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68696337728&a=579408564

  3. NRG Says:

    PKI. Parkland Fuel

    Up over 8% today. One of my core holdings in both investing and RRSP.

  4. KC Says:

    John,

    #9 yesterday, Disclaimer that this is my opinion and you should check with the financial institutions themselves. But I think you should be able to move equities and/or $ from one TFSA to another IN KIND. Which means you should not have any redemptions essentially. This should protect you from selling anything that is a paper loss. TFSA does not incur any cap gain/loss or taxes, since it is “TF” in any case. You’d have to check with the TD whether they are able to pull over your assets in kind from the other institution.

    Cheers,
    KC

  5. John (ON) Says:

    #2 Ron/BC

    Brilliant! Thank you!

  6. Muntazir Says:

    Dutchcanuck,

    Thanks for answering my Q.

    John,

    I agree with KC. Call TDW. As you have sold the stock the 30k can be transferred to new broker (trustee) without any loss. Remember to check with computerdhares if there is any fees.If yes tell TDW to absorb. Transfer from one broker to another – no charge or waiting time. If you withdraw cash then have to wait for next year. Thats how I understand. Once again check with TDW

  7. KC Says:

    JOhn, Muntazir,

    I do see one disadvantage to transfering out the 30 k to another tfsa. When john invested the 12k, he would have had the residual room in his tfsa. I forget what the total tfsa room permitted by government would be by now. But lets assume that its 50k. His residual room would be 38k. However if he transfers the 30k to a new tfsa, does that not immediately reduce his residual room down to 20k??

    How does the government look at that?

    Thanks
    KC

  8. Kam Says:

    Re-6 Tfsa,

    I don’t think moving to other broker means it is new TFSA. He had tax free capital gains but only contributed $12k to it so should have rest of the lifetime amount available for him.
    Look at it this way. If he had contributed 12k and now have only 5k left in him TFSA after losses, them moving to diff broker won’t give him extra 7K room to contribute again.

  9. KC Says:

    KAm,

    If he loses 7k, i did not mean that it gives him the extra 7k of room. Tfsa is based on how much one has contributed towards the total lifetime of allowable contributions. So assuming that is not at 50k or whatever that number is. Then yes a loss of 7k does not add to his room, i know that. However, if he opens another tfsa and contributes 30k to it, is that not then considered as a new contribution out of the total of the 50 allowable? As opposed to if he just left the 30k in his original tfsa, his original contribution would still only be 12k out of the 50k, the added 18k is just his profit and not considered cap gains , since it is held inside his tfsa.

    KC

  10. KC Says:

    Sorry i meant ” so assuming that is NOW at….”

  11. John Says:

    Thank you KC and Muntazir,

    I called TDW and they told me exactly the same, transfer from broker to broker is just a transfer without incurring any capital gain/loss (TFSA) and my capital gain of $18,000 will not be seen by CRA as a new contribution to my TFSA exceeding the $5,500 cap.

  12. John Says:

    Update on the TFSA since inception

    As of January 1, 2018, the total cumulative contribution room for a TFSA is $57,500 for those who have been 18 years or older and residents of Canada for all eligible years.

    Years TFSA Annual Limit Cumulative Total
    2009–2012 $5,000 $20,000
    2013–2014 $5,500 $31,000
    2015 $10,000[14] $41,000
    2016–2018 $5,500 $57,500
    Any unused contribution room under the cap can be carried forward to subsequent years, without any upward limit.[15]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax-Free_Savings_Account

  13. John Says:

    So the limit as of Jan 01, 2018 is $57,500.

    I already had my sefr-directed TDW TFSA account since 2010 and I have invevested in stocks since then.
    This is simply a transfer from a company group TFSA to my existing personal self-directed TFSA.

  14. Ana Says:

    #1. Ron/BC

    Thank you for the $Gold charts. I have been monitoring the gold trade for this year.

    I was thinking that maybe all of the gold traders are now trading cryptocurrencies.

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Well it has been frustrating watching XGD.to which once upon a time was a great ETF to often make a few hundred bucks on with a swing trade. But for a long time now it hasn’t done much of anything. AEM makes the strongest dollar moves, but the chart on it isn’t exactly bullish while making new price lows. BUTTTTTTTTTT looking closely at the 60 minute chart I see that the rally from early March through June has pulled back a perfect Fibonacci 61.8% over the last couple of days and Gold products do tend to respect this Fib retracement level more than most markets. Also the intraday low last week saw a price low of $41.04 which was also a significant price low at that price point in late March, again in April and again in May. Soooooooooooooo, it does look like a place to consider getting long. Would prefer a more bullish Daily chart but you can’t have everything. The C.O.T. numbers show Speculators are extremely short Gold and they always are on the wrong side of the market at turning points as well. A Gold rally would see considerable short covering with big money chasing them. And the GDX just tested an 18 month channel bottom,see post #1. And any oscillator you look at is very oversold as well. Can’t ask for much more than this really. I can’t post the 60 minute chart as it wont show up. It would be nice to get long at or close to the $41.04 low but I don’t expect to see that tagged again anytime soon. And the $GOLD ETF:GLD sees positive divergences on the recent new price lows as the 2nd chart in post #1 shows. Lots of positive technicals on the precious metals markets combined with a bearish mindset out there in the financial world to confirm. So we’ll see what happens early next week. Might only be a dead cat bounce with the questionable ‘price’ chart. But there’s nothing wrong with a dead cat bounce as long as you don’t marry it. And you’re likely correct with the idea the Gold traders are now trading the cryptocurrencies more than Gold now. I hope you enjoyed your holiday with your kids.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AEM&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p58593629005&a=605011994

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33273030892&a=579408551

  16. Ana Says:

    #15. Ron/BC

    Great charts! Thank you for your comments as well. My day trading chart shows more down for $Gold, maybe 1212? Just watching for now. Seasonality indicates that the season for gold is upon us.

    Maybe some of the gold traders have also gone into trading marijuana as well.

    My son has found the perfect home for him and his family, right next to a golf course!

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