Pre-opening Comments for Thursday August 16th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 14 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news of renewed trade talks between China and the U.S. as well as better than expected quarterly reports by two Dow Jones Industrial stocks.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was an increase to 216,000 from 214,000 last week. Actual was 212,000. Consensus for August Philly Fed Index was 22.0 versus 25.7 in July. Actual was 11.9. Consensus for July Housing Starts was 1.260 million units versus 1.16 million units in June. Actual was 1.17 million units.
Cisco gained $2.74 to $46.60 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings. The company also raised its guidance.
Wal-Mart jumped $9.72 to $99.94 after reporting higher than consensus second quarter sales and earnings. The company also raised its guidance.
JC Penney dropped $0.52 to $1.89 after reporting lower than consensus second quarter sales and earnings. The company also lowered its guidance.
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link
http://www.equityclock.com/2018/08/15/stock-market-outlook-for-august-16-2018/
Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply, Crude Oil, Retail Trade, Industrial Production and the Empire State Manufacture Survey.
Observations
Commodity prices dropped sharply with strength in the U.S. Dollar Index. Ditto for commodity sensitive prices!
Australian equity indices bucked the trend from world equity markets
StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 11:00: Bearish. 25 stocks broke intermediate support. 3 utility stocks broke resistance: $AEP $ED $PNW
Editor’s Note: After 11:00 AM EDT, breakouts included HRL and breakdowns included NFLX, OKE, M, CTSH and SWKS.
Notable among S&P 500 stocks breaking support: Energy: $APA $CVX $DVN $EOG $HAL $HES $MRO $NE $PXD $SLB. Energy ETF breakdowns: $XLE $OIH $FCG
Caterpillar $CAT, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $131.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Eurozone ETF $EZU moved below $40.28 extending an intermediate downtrend. Ditto for Europe iShares $IEF.
Emerging Markets iShares $EEM moved below $66.00 and $65.59 extending an intermediate downtrend.
EAFE iShares $EFA moved below$66.00 and $65.59 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Coal ETF $KOL moved below $15.33 extending an intermediate downtrend.
More base metal stocks breaking down: $SCCO $BHP.
Forest Product iShares $WOOD moved below $74.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Palladium ETN $PALL moved below $81.93 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Rogers Communications $RCI.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $68.00 extending an intermediate uptrend.
Weakness in world equity markets triggered by a breakdown in Chinese stocks and ETFs $FXI
Netflix $NFLX, one of the FAANG stocks moved below $329.00 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Materials SPDRs $XLB moved below $57.14 extending an intermediate downtrend.
TSX Energy ETF $XEG.CA moved below $12.28 completing a double top pattern. Related breakdown: $CVE.CA
Uranium ETF $URA moved below $12.25 extending an intermediate downtrend. Related breakdown $CCJ $CCO.CA
Short-term trend in #Oil stockpiles showing signs of bottoming at a time when drawdowns are typical. $USO $CL_F $XLE $XOP
#Business Sales up 2.3% (NSA) in H1, while Inventories up 2.1%. Average gain for each: 1.4% and 2.0%, respectively. $MACRO $STUDY
US Industrial Production down 1.4% in July, much better than the 2.8% decline that is average for the summer month. $MACRO #Economy
Empire State Manufacturing Survey showing +22.2 (NSA) in August, firmly above +7.4 average for this time of year. $MACRO #Economy
Total #Retail Trade down 0.7% (NSA) in July. Average is for no change in the month. $MACRO #Economy $XRT
Trader’s Corner
Equities and Related ETFs
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for August 15th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for August 15th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for August 15th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer dropped 5.20 to 58.00 yesterday. It changed to Intermediate neutral from intermediate overbought and continues to trend down.
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer dropped 2.27 to 45.23 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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August 16th, 2018 at 10:42 am
Ron/BC
Thanks for the “X” chart and analysis, have a great day golfing. Weather is wonderful in TO.
Ana:
Thanks for your chart as well. I saved it and hopefully it will help me when its time to exit my three stocks. Hope you make lots of $$$ today.
Cheers!
August 16th, 2018 at 11:38 am
The Gold stocks & their ETFs continue to make new price lows. No bounce……yet.
August 16th, 2018 at 11:45 am
The $SPX ETF:SPY is bumping up against the January high of 284 once again. This needs to be cleared and held to expect more upside. The breakout that held for 3 days last week looked very positive but couldn’t hold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10101354564&a=579408339
August 16th, 2018 at 12:48 pm
Sherri,
A couple of days ago Armstrong had a Private Blog on the Dow – can you please post, or maybe I missed it. Much gratitude.
August 16th, 2018 at 3:42 pm
Mary,
The futures started going up yesterday, which looked like a wave iv and then, of course, the downward wave v finished when the market opened.
It is important to use some very short sma when trading and trade the crosses of the simple moving averages. Or another indicator to use is a simple macd.
August 16th, 2018 at 11:07 pm
EquityClock
Excellent post today on Crude Oil and Gasoline.