Tech Talk for Thursday September 20th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday September 20th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 10 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was an increase to 210,000 versus 203,000 last week. Actual was. 201,000. Consensus for Philly Fed Index was 19.6 . Actual was 22.9.

Red Hat (RHT $143.16) is expected to open lower after reporting less than consensus second quarter revenues. Stifel Nicolaus lowered its target price to $160 from $172.

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Under Armour (UAA $18.76) is expected to open higher after the company raised its 2018 guidance.

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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD $31.21) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus increased its target price to $38 from $21.

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Darden Restaurants gained $6.11 to $124.00 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter results. The company also raised its guidance.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/09/19/stock-market-outlook-for-september-20-2018/

Note seasonality charts on 30 Year Treasury Bond Futures, U.S. Financial sector, Utilities sector, Housing Starts and Spain IBEX 35 Index

 

Observations

Precious metal prices and related equities finally are catching a seasonal bid. Better late than never!

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BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF touched above $30.46 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend. ‘Tis the season for strength in the sector until the end of November!

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Lithium ETN $LIT moved above $32.65 completing a double bottom pattern..

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Teck Resources $TECK $TECK.B.CA moved above $24.60 U.S. and $31.75 Cdn. completing a double bottom pattern.

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Tech action to 10:15: Bullish. Breakouts: $DO $MUR $MET $CMI $AAL $JNPR $WRK $NFX $RIG $PRU $USB $AOS $FMC. Breakdowns: $CPRT $FDX

Editor’s Note: After 10:15 AM EDT, breakouts included JPM, NBL and CBOE. Breakdowns included NEE HFC and ES

Steel ETF $SLX moved above $45.50 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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CCL Industries $CCL.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $61.89 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Canadian lumber stocks drop after CIBC lowered ratings on the sector. $CFP.CA $WFT.CA $IFP.CA.

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Silver stocks finally show signs of technical bottoms! Nice double bottom by $HL. $SIL $WPM also gained

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“Gassy” stocks and ETFs are responding to higher natural gas prices on both sides of the border. $VET.CA $APA $FCG

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Barrick Gold $ABX $ABX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $10.77 U.S. and $13.93 Cdn. completing a double bottom pattern.

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Semafo $SMF.CA, another gold producer completed a base building pattern on a moved above $3.28.

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Financial SPDRs $XLF moved above $28.72 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved below $53.13 completing a double top pattern.

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Editor’s Note: The interest sensitive U.S. REITs ETF also broke support just after finishing its period of seasonal strength

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Insurance and airlines ETFs breaking out today – both top picks of ours. bnnbloomberg.ca/jon-vialoux… $IAK $JETS #SeasonalInvestingDoneRight

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US #Housing Starts bounce back in August, rising 2.3% (NSA), a positive divergence compared to -4.6% average. $MACRO #Economy $ITB $XHB

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Schachter Energy Report

September edition of this pay-per-view service has just been released.

Josef says:

Natural gas is extremely cheap and with low storage in the U.S. and Canada, the upcoming winter should drive prices up sharply as they have done in the past. A doubling of NYMEX and AECO this winter per MCF is likely. Crude oil is now in oversupply and should decline below U.S. $60/lb. before winter.

Following is a link to his service:

https://www.schachterenergyreport.ca/

Editor’s Note: Agreed on the natural gas call.

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer was up 0.60 to 68.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and shows signs of rolling over.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.67 to 39.75 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold, but continues to trend down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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12 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday September 20th 2018”

  1. tawny Says:

    Sherri

    Thanks for posting the latest from Armstrong – much appreciated.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Understanding The Secular Bull Market We Are In – I highly recommend viewing the BNN video from last night’s Market Call Tonight with David Burrows. In his market outlook he gives a historical explanation looking the movement of bonds vs equities and how we are entering a reflationary environment which brings outperformance for equities for years to come. The market has been climbing a wall of worry continuously and the Nervous Nellies have been proven wrong every time.

  3. dutchcanuck Says:

    Savaria Corp (SIS.TO) raises dividend by 17% and guides to increased revenue and EBITDA.
    The gift that keeps on giving by using an aging population theme.

  4. Jim/Nfld Says:

    Re: #2 Thanks for the tip. Good interview but why are Dave’s fund returns so poor in 2007? https://barometercapital.ca/type/private-pools#compare

  5. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    A few days ago, you threw up a chart for Gold, GDX, and also AEM. Could you please post the chart and comments again ? I did read your chart n comments but did not save it.

    Thanks,
    KC

  6. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #7 from last night

    You’re probably right about selling when under water if your concern is capital preservation. However, a dividend growth investor might look at this in a different light, ie; they may say…yes my capital is shrinking but my portfolio income is still growing and I haven’t had any dividend cuts so I’m hanging on, its business as usual. During the 2008-09 fall I even went one step further. Other than the two sells I made on dividend cuts I kept buying every month. The moves served me very well with income and capital growth. Its probably fortunate that I was still working. Had I been retired my tolerance for risk would have been much lower like it is now.

    You know its funny. Many people look to Warren Buffet quotes for inspiration in their investing.

    In this quote he’s basically giving the same message as you, ie; sell rather than lose money.
    “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.”

    Then in other quotes he gives the opposite message, ie; if you’re happy with the company then buy and hold through thick and thin.
    “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
    “If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”
    “Our favorite holding period is forever.”
    “You shouldn’t own common stocks if a 50% decrease in their value in a short period of time would cause you acute distress.”

    I can see why so many investors are indecisive on when to sell. The same thing goes for when to buy. TA suggests buying on breakouts, levels of support, 52 week highs. Value investors prefer buying on major dips and 52 week lows.

  7. Larry/ON Says:

    GOOGL – Looking really good ready to pop turning around from somewhat oversold

  8. Bernie Says:

    Jim/Nfld,

    Re: #4
    As much as I like David Borrows I won’t buy his funds. They’re overpriced fee-wise and only perform a little above average long term. For anyone looking for mutual fund solutions for long term growth I suggest Mawer funds.

  9. Paula Says:

    RE: David Burrows: I have said it before and I will say it again: he is the best money manager that BNN has on their Market Call shows. I do not follow his recommendations b/c I am a value investor and cannot buy new highs. I like bargains but I realize that is ok for buying as a consumer but not the best way to look at things in the market.I do like his perspective but still have to wait for pullbacks to buy. The best advice is to stay with a trend and to be ready to buy when it is a bull market, which it currently is. It has been foolish waiting for the market to go down just because of seasonals being poor. This thinking has not served me well.
    I wonder why the Barometer Capital returns don’t look better. The numbers posted on the recent Market Call Tonight looked great.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well about the only thing that has really saved my ass-ets over the decades is property that I’ve bought and sold. And I didn’t do it for a living but overall bought and sold 9 places plus the place I’m in now. And even the one I just purchased in June is worth roughly $40K more than I paid. Other sales in my building confirm that. That’s only 10 trades over a 50 year period. All those on the West Coast are living in million dollar homes with the property worth the bulk of the value, and not because they are good investors but just because the West Coast always booms in good times. Doesn’t mean they go up every year but as far as investments go I can’t see trying to beat those results with a stock portfolio. The next recession will see those homes selloff hard and once they stabilize in price and the economy bottoms once again buying one will pay off big time in the future like they always do. It’s just a no brainer with no investment skills needed. And Buffet’s quote of “Don’t lose money” makes an excellent point in anything you do as it applies to far more than stocks. It has kept me from over renovating places I bought as well as I always considered the cost compared to what I’d get back. Even my own home that was a major consideration that paid off. But we all have our own ideas and beliefs. I guess I’ve just heard too many horror stories all my life about losing stock portfolios to ever be a believer. I’m sure some of the investors on this site know exactly what they are doing but I wouldn’t recommend the average person trying to duplicate it as most wouldn’t hang on in a major downtrend and would likely bail out right at the bottom when it seems like the end of the world. You would have to be a believer to go through that and hang on and buy more. Not too many could do that in my opinion.

  11. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW today:

    “The Dow Jones continued to make new highs after exceed our first level of technical resistance. So far the market has reach 26654.19 this morning. We will have 26420.82 as technical support for the closing. Next week is a Directional Change showing up in all three markets. The week of Oct 1st is the strongest target in the Nasdaq whereas we have the week of 10/15 as the strongest targets in the Dow & S&P500. The Dow has been leading again so this is reflecting the international influence. The S&P500 is making new highs reflecting how the perpetual bears keep having to buy shorts back. The Nasdaq is lagging and that shows the domestic investors are still not on board yet.

    This market is still in a consolidation pattern. The good news is the Dow has now exceeded the January high. Exceeding the September high in October points to higher highs going into year end. Our next targets will be November and January. Again, if we close above the 2017 high of 24876.07, we stand a reasonable shot at creating a Vertical Market. We will be going over the key points and markets at the WEC.

    For now, only a closing below the 26030 level will signal a correction. This will begin to move higher with the market. The Reversals are the ONLY game in town. Once we took out the Weekly Bullish back at 25800, the rally was confirmed. Just keep the reversals as the key. They will forecast things far better than any person can ever hope.”

  12. bruce Says:

    thanks again Sherri……..

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