Tech Talk for Friday September 21st 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 21st

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Today is Quadruple Witching Day. Volumes on U.S. exchanges are expected to be elevated.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged following release of economic news released at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for August Consumer Prices was a year-over-year increase of 2.8%. Actual was an increase of 2.8%. Consensus for July Retail Sales was an increase of 0.3%. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.

Micron dropped $1.77 to $44.29 after the company lowered its fiscal first quarter guidance.

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Texas Instruments gained $2.29 to $110.78 after the company announced a 24% increase in its quarterly dividend. The company also announced a $12 billion share buyback program.

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Ingersoll Rand (IR $103.44) is expected to open higher after JP Morgan raised its rating to Overweight from Neutral.

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Darden Restaurants (DRI $116.45) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus and SunTrust raised their target price on the stock.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/09/20/stock-market-outlook-for-september-21-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, U.S. Financial sector, Existing Home Sales, Inventory of Existing Home Sales, Median Sales Price of Existing Homes and the Philly Fed Index.

Observations

The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average moved to all-time highs shortly after the opening yesterday.

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Editor’s Note: International equity markets and related ETFs were even stronger than North American equity markets thanks partially to weakness in the U.S. Dollar and corresponding strength in developed nation currencies.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Materials SPDRs $XLB moved above $60.92 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: Strength in the sector was led by gains in the chemical sub-sector.

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Energy SPDRs $XLE moved above $75.54 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Fertilizer ETF $SOIL moved above $10.93 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Base Metals iShares $PICK moved above $31.99 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Editor’s Note: Base metal equity prices were helped by strength in the copper ETN above $30.25 completing a base building pattern.

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S&P 500 SPDRs $SPY moved above $291.74 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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U.S. Dollar Index ETN $UUP moved below $$25.01 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: Conversely, the Euro moved above 117.34 completing a base building pattern.

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And the Canadian Dollar extended an intermediate uptrend on a move above U.S. 77.60.

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And the British Pound started an intermediate uptrend on a move above 131.32.

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JP Morgan $JPM, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $118.29 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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CGI Group $GIB, a TSX 60 stock moved above $66.32 U.S. to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Magna International $MG.CA $MGA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $72.74 Cdn completing a base building pattern.

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Fortis $FTS.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $42.05 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Natural Gas ETN $UNG moved above $24.41 and $24.52 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Gains were helped by another small increase in storage last week. Inventories remain well below their five year average.

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Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2013 through 2017. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

‘Tis the season for Natural Gas to move higher to late December.

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Another base metals stocks breakout: Hudbay Minerals $HBM.CA.

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TSX Financials Index and related ETF $XFN.CA moved above $38.85 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Consumer Staples $SPDR moved above $55.31 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Pharmaceutical ETF $PPH moved above $64.45 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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South Korea iShares $EWY moved above $67.70 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Philadelphia #Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey rebounds in September to +26.6 (NSA), above +18.4 average. $MACRO #Economy

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US Existing Home Sales up 3.1% (NSA) in August, slightly better than the 2.9% average gain for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Housing

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for September 20th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for September 20th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for September 20th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 4.20 to 72.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer was unchanged yesterday at 39.75. It remains intermediate oversold and trending down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday September 21st 2018”

  1. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,
    A few days ago, you threw up a chart for Gold, GDX, and also AEM. Could you please post the chart and comments again ? I did read your chart n comments but did not save it.
    Thanks,
    KC

  2. Paula Says:

    KC,
    Here is Ron/BC’s Gold chart, linked from TT’s September 10th blog page:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72379228649&a=610725533

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is an old email I saved many years ago as I’m going over my saved email files after changing my server. It was worth saving.

    An Obituary printed in the London Times…..Absolutely Brilliant !!!

    Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense , who has
    been with us for many years.
    No one knows for sure how old he was, since his birth records were long ago
    lost in bureaucratic red tape.
    He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:
    – Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
    – Why the early bird gets the worm;
    – Life isn’t always fair;
    – and maybe it was my fault.

    Common Sense lived by simple, sound financial policies (don’t spend more
    than you can earn) and reliable strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).

    His health began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but
    overbearing regulations were set in place.
    Reports of a 6-year-old boy charged with sexual harassment for kissing a
    classmate; teens suspended from school for using mouthwash after lunch; and
    a teacher fired for reprimanding an unruly student, only worsened his condition.

    Common Sense lost ground when parents attacked teachers for doing the job
    that they themselves had failed to do in disciplining their unruly children.

    It declined even further when schools were required to get parental consent
    to administer sun lotion or an aspirin to a student; but could not inform
    parents when a student became pregnant and wanted to have an abortion.

    Common Sense lost the will to live as the churches became businesses; and
    criminals received better treatment than their victims.

    Common Sense took a beating when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar
    in your own home and the burglar could sue you for assault.

    Common Sense finally gave up the will to live, after a woman failed to
    realize that a steaming cup of coffee was hot. She spilled a little in her
    lap, and was promptly awarded a huge settlement.

    Common Sense was preceded in death, by his parents, Truth and Trust, by his
    wife, Discretion, by his daughter, Responsibility, and by his son, Reason.

    He is survived by his 4 stepbrothers;
    I Know My Rights
    I Want It Now
    Someone Else Is To Blame
    I’m A Victim

    Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone.
    If you still remember him, pass this on.
    If not, join the majority and do nothing.

  4. NRG Says:

    2008 and 2009 investment losses

    I see my name mentioned in articles written earlier this week about holding on in a market correction. So I went back and reviewed my portfolio thru those troubling times. First I went to my investing account but that was not a true account of my losses as I used this account to also purchase real estate. I bought a house in Phoenix in 2010 when the Can $ was above par. I also bought lake property in Alberta in 2012.
    Both purchases were completed when there was a real estate correction and my net worth has grown remarkably well because of those transactions. I still own both.
    As far as investments I reviewed my RRSP as I have not sold any stocks during that time. I see I was down about 10% both years. Those losses were easily made up in the next two years and every year since then my portfolio went up.
    So, for me I ask myself the following? When is the best time to buy? I guess in real estate and stock market that is when everyone else is selling. Now I am retired and leaving for Az. In three weeks for the winter. Yes I am always concerned when a correction occurs. But would you sell your house during a real estate correction? Nope, you got to live somewhere. And stocks, like real estate tend to rise in value over time.
    I don’t do much buying and selling stocks too much anymore. But I did sell Enercare after a 60 k gain. To offset the capital gain I sold a couple of losers, ALA, and ENB. I will buy back both after 30 days to start collecting those dividends again. I need to. I require dividends to live on, so picking dividend growth stocks is i,portent to me. Don’t really care about daily market fluctuations. Love those dividend increases as they cushion inflationary pressures. Up to about $3400 per month avg. in dividends in my investing account. Well, that’s my story. Coffee time, then go walk in this lousy Edmonton weather, snowing again, and do house renos. Cheers everyone.

  5. NRG Says:

    Real Estate and Stock Market

    Just a couple of thoughts.

    You can make and lose money both in real estate and the stock market.
    You only realize a gain or a loss when you sell.
    I would not sell my house if the real estate market corrected, I need a roof over my head and prefer to own.
    I would not sell my dividend stocks in a market correction, I need the income.
    I could rent and not own real estate and don’t worry about real estate corrections.
    I could own GIC’s and not worry about stock market corrections.
    Both of the last two will not cover the cost increase in inflation.
    I would do my due diligence when purchasing a stock or real estate.
    House prices and dividend stocks tend to rise over time.
    I own both.

  6. NRG Says:

    #3 Ron

    So true. The generation of entitlement. The age of over regulation. So glad I was growing up before all of this.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    NRG

    Yes I’m also glad I was raised in a time where common sense prevailed and I was expected to use my discretion wisely or pay a price. I never expected much of anything I didn’t work for either. Life was much easier to understand and made a lot more sense than it does today. Nice to see your success in the above posts. We all have to find our own way to succeed and there are many ways to do it. None of them are a piece of cake………….

  8. Kam Says:

    MU

    Didn’t hear much lately of all the MU posts we had few months back. Hope some are not holding this bag all the way from 60 plus. I did a trade after it fell AH on thursday ER. Bought $42.85 and sold half at $45.45 in the morning yesterday and still holding other half. Not too many shares as it was a tfsa trade. It has fallen >30% from top. Hope that $40.68 was all the (5) otherwise if its (3) then target for (5) is $34.81. lets see.

  9. kam Says:

    NTR( not pot & agr marriage)

    Stumbled upon BC lions and Hamilton TC game in 3rd quarter. Haven’t watched a CFL game in years. What a game! We are just used to watching NFL and its stars.Need to watch more CFL games.

  10. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong today:

    “The way the cycles were set up, an August high would have been followed by a low in November. Once we exceeded the August high, then we are clearly still in this cycle inversion and that means we are still consolidating. Despite making a new high, we are still below technical resistance so we are consolidating and not in a runaway market just yet.

    On August 31, we warned that the market had to close below the Weekly Bullish at 25800. Doing so would have meant a decline. We elected that set of Weekly Bullish in the Dow. However, many noticed that the S&P500 had elected its comparable Weekly Bullish the week before 08/20. The one lagging was the NASDAQ.

    Next week we have a Directional Change. That can be a blast off if we open ABOVE this past week’s high. But it can also turn back down and retest support since the NASDAQ has not yet joined the party.

    There are a lot of analysts starting to copy what we have been saying. That should be expected. Nevertheless, all we can do is follow the computer at this stage. The numbers are the key. The market speaks if we care to listen.

    At this stage now, the support lies at 25800. As long as that area holds on a weekly closing basis, then the consolidation will remain in play. The key support lies now at 24965 and only a weekly closing below that will confirm a correction pattern.

    In the S&P500, the corresponding numbers are 2850 and 2794.

    Exceeding the August high may prove to be a game changer. There was a shot that the market would back off into 2020 and then rally thereafter into 2032. The other pattern is exceeding this year’s high next year points to a serious run up into 2020. Then we can see the decline in the dollar from there and the inflationary boom off into 2024.

    So hold tight. We are clearly in the staging process right now.”

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