Tech Talk for Thursday October 4th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday October 4th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was a decline to 210,000 from 215,000 last week. Actual was 207,000.

Constellation Brands (STZ $) is expected to open higher after the company reported higher than consensus fiscal second quarter results. The company also raised guidance.

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Eli Lilly (LLY $) is expected to open higher after reporting positive trials for a diabetes treatment.

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HP Inc (HPQ $) is expected to open higher after the company offered positive guidance. The company also announced plans to increase its dividend by 15%.

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Barnes & Noble gained $1.14 to $6.60 after the company confirmed receipt of an expressions of interest to acquire the company.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/10/03/stock-market-outlook-for-october-4-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Utilities sector, Consumer Staples sector, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply and Crude Oil.

Michael Campbell’s Radio Show

Don Vialoux is a guest on Michael Campbell’s radio show on Saturday. The show runs between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM Vancouver time (11:30 AM- 1:00 PM Toronto time). Mr. Vialoux is scheduled to appear at approximately 9:00 AM Vancouver time (Noon Toronto time). Listen to the show at www.CKNW.com.

 

Observations

Aluminum prices and related ETNs/equities surged.

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Interest sensitive equities (REITs, Utilities) were hit when yield on long term Treasuries broke to new highs.

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Greece in trouble again (18 month low)?

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Nil.

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Bausch Health $BHC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $36.02 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Norbord $OSB.CA moved below $42.29 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Brazil iShares $EWZ moved above $37.65 completing a double bottom pattern.

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“Gassy” U.S. based ETF $FCG moved above $22.86 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: “Gassy” Canadian ETF finally woke up yesterday.

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Mexican investors are less than impressed with the revised NAFTA deal.

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Global Timber iShares $WOOD moved below $74.05 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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U.S. REIT iShares $IYR moved below $78.48 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Yield on 10 year Treasuries $TNX moved above 3.115% to a 7 year high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Ditto for 30 year Treasury yields!

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Conversely, long term Treasury iShares $TLT moved below $114.79 and $114.47 to an 18 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 3rd 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

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Tired of seeing your seasonal fund remain stagnant when seasonally favoured sectors move higher? Consider switching to the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio http://www.equityclock.com/About/Seasonal-Advantage-Portfolio/ … #SeasonalInvestingDoneRight

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 2.60 to 55.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and continues to trend down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer gained 2.10 to 39.08 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and continues to trend down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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5 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday October 4th 2018”

  1. mary Says:

    Larry/ON

    Any thoughts on S&P/DOW now that interest rate seems to be going up. Target price will be appreciated. Thanks.

  2. Bernie Says:

    DARSHAN SIDHU,

    I just noticed your reply made Monday on last Friday’s TTM post.

    There is much to consider in ones retirement investment decisions. Without knowing more details about you I can only give you very general investment ideas. That said, its just as well that you not post much detail here anyway or that I give you specific advice. If you haven’t done so already I highly suggest you consult with a tax specialist and a fee-only financial planner to discuss options specific to your needs.

    As for income, dividend growth stocks can be a very good source for dividends and their growth. I’ve invested in them for over 10 years. I’ve done well in the bull market. Going forward dividend growth may not do as well as markets are elevated and direction uncertain. Mutual funds tend to have very low yields. They’re more about growth than income so I wouldn’t suggest to invest in them specifically for income. You can however “simulate” income from them, as I do, by making systematic withdrawals. My withdrawals cost me nothing with my discount broker. Actually, I only know of one discount broker who charges commissions on mutual fund transactions (buys or sells), that being Questrade. Mawer Funds are the only mutual funds I like and invest in. Several of their offerings have outperformed their benchmarks over the long term. My other holdings (stocks, ETFs and CEFs) give me adequate income through dividend distributions so there is no need for me to sell anything.

    As you probably know there are numerous only ways to receive or simulate income. There is also the option to stay in cash and wait for better opportunities, like Ron/BC does. Thats probably not so bad a decision these days.

  3. DARSHAN SIDHU Says:

    Thanks,Bernie.

  4. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong Quarterly closing comment:

    “The only two market close to a Quarterly Bearish Reversal are gold and the Euro. In gold it lies at 1140 which does not appear to be in play. In the Euro it is also out of play down at the 105 area. However, technically, the underling support will be 111.10 for the next quarter”

  5. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong September:

    “As we go into the closing of September 2018, everything is still pointing to volatile times ahead and no doubt this will confuse the vast majority. I was just asked to do an interview after two years and they openly said I was the only guest they have had who has been correct. Of course, that is the computer and not my personal opinion. Still, this reflects something very interesting. I have always WARNED that the majority must always be wrong for that is the fuel that drives the markets. We have has everyone from dollar bears, gold bugs, to perpetual stock market bears in virtually every field call these markets complete wrong now for years. Yet at this juncture in time, we have everything pushing the envelope to the very edge.

    In gold we have a Weekly Bearish Reversal at 1184. However, the Monthly Bearish is 1194. We have system resistance building for next week at 1195 and the main bank of support begins down at 1120. Everything is still pointing to October with a November shift. So stay on guard here.

    In the Dow, a closing above the January high of 26616 will be technically bullish. We really see the technical resistance in the 28307 area and support forming at 25576. The Senate Judiciary Committee voted 11-10 Friday to move Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination to the Senate floor, leaving open the possibility of a one-week FBI investigation into sexual assault accusations against him.Strangely enough, the week of 10/01 has been our target for the next turning point.

    The Democrats have made a major case out of this as if it were even a definitive issue. I have read many Supreme Count decisions and you do not find that people vote based upon who nominated them. There are often even on opposite side was was the case with Obamacare when Chief Justice Roberts, a Republican appointee against Democrats on that one as well, voted against his fellow Republicans to uphold Obamacare with the Democrats. He called it a tax which the Democrats denied to get it through.”

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