Tech Talk for Wednesday October 10th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday October 10th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 11 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the September Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.1% in August. Actual was. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the September Producer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.1% in August. Actual was an increase of 0.2%

Fastenal (FAST $55.64) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus third quarter sales and earnings.

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McDonald’s (MCD $169.83) is expected to open higher after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target is $200.

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Yum Brands (YUM $91.18) is expected to open higher after BTIG raised its target price to $102 from $92.

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Serius (SIRI $) is expected to open higher after the company raised its dividend by 10%.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/10/09/stock-market-outlook-for-october-10-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Materials sector, Technology sector, Dow Jones Transportation Average and TSX Financials Index.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $CMS $FE $ES. Breakdowns: $KR $BLK $MS $ROP $PPG $SHW

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, breakouts included BRK.B, KMI, COG ESRX, TRIP, XEC, RIG and MCK. Breakdown: DWDP and SWK

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Utilities SPDRs $XLU moved above $54.45 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Materials SPDRs $XLB moved below support at $56.74

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Auto ETF $CARX moved below $34.76 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Europe iShares $IEV moved below $43.33 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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National Bank $NA.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $63.60 completing a double top pattern.

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Cdn. National Resources $CNQ.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $40.71 and $40.45 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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CGI Group $GIB.CA $GIB, a TSX 60 stock moved below $81.01 Cdn. extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Cascades $CAS.CA move below $11.26 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Obsidian Energy OBE.CA moved below $1.15 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $223.00 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Don Vialoux on Michael Campbell’s ‘Money Talks’

Following is a link:

http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/michael-campbell/interview-of-the-week/22287-knowing-the-best-time-to-invest-has-returned-an-average-of-over-16-since-1929.html’’

 

Technical Scoop

David Chapman from Enriched Investing talks about, “The Music still plays with division, Jumping rates, Teetering Italy, Defiant numbers and Rising Dollar and Gold”

Following is a link:

http://www.enrichedinvesting.com/PDF/Music-Still-Plays-with-Division-Jumping-Rates-Teetering-Italy-Defiant-Numbers-and-Rising-Dollar-and-Gold.pdf

 

Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 9th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 9th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 9th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

2018 CSTA Annual Conference

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CSTA Calgary Edition of the CSTA Annual Conference

Online option available – please click here for details and registration – Space is limited REGISTER FOR THE ONLINE OPTION NOW!

JOIN US LIVE – REGISTER NOW!

Live event will be hosted at the Aloft Calgary University

          • Address: 2359 Banff Trail NW, Calgary, Alberta

          • Phone:(403) 289-1973

Date and Time

          • October 13, 2018

          • 7:00 am to 5:00 PM (Registration opens at 7:00 am)

Agenda:

7:00am

Registration and coffee

 

8:00am

Live speaker

Greg Schnell (StockCharts.com)

9:20am

Speaker via Webinar

Hima Reddy (HimaReddy.com)

10:45am

Speaker via Webinar

Brian Shannon (Alphatrends)

12:00am

Lunch break

 

1:00pm

Speaker via Webinar

Jon Vialoux (CastleMoore) Seasonality Setups

2:30 pm

Keynote Speaker – Live Speaker

Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray

3:50 pm

Panel

Craig Johnson, Cory Mitchell, Greg Schnell

4:50 pm

Thank-you, Closing remarks

 

For more information please contact:

Mark Soehner

CSTA 2018 Calgary Conference Chair

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The S&P 500 Barometer dropped another 1.80 to 48.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate neutral and trending down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The TSX Barometer dropped another 1.26 to 24.79 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

 

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Tired of seeing your seasonal fund remain stagnant when seasonally favoured sectors move higher? Consider switching to the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio http://www.equityclock.com/About/Seasonal-Advantage-Portfolio/ … #SeasonalInvestingDoneRight

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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14 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday October 10th 2018”

  1. Canuck2004 Says:

    Someone asked what about my investment accounts? Like RRSP and TFSA….nothing as there’s no need, these are long term investments and not short term trades.

    However, since July I stopped reinvesting in stocks twice a months as dividends come in….which is my usual practice. Just accumulating cash in cash like instruments like CMR, commission free on Scotia Itrade. Very stable at 1.20% paying monthly.

    There is a worry tho….Interest rates peaked in 1981 at 21%, have been falling ever since, past 10 years near zero….what’s next? I would say rising much further than anticipated….pendulum always swings one way before swing the other way. One extreme to another.

    Why? US massive tax cuts in a good economy are incredibally inflationary, Tariffs are massively inflationary, so we will get lots of inflation….there’s just a time lag before it bites…when it does, the Fed will freak, and jack up rates faster and higher than anticipated ….none of this 25 basis points, it will be 50-75-100 at a time….seen this before. But there’s a whole generation or two out there that have never seen inflation and they don’t really know what that means.

    What does all that inflation mean? Well the yield curve in US is already flat….so we will get a yield curve inversion for sure over the next few months….and that mean a Recession looming. Every recession ever has been Fed created.

    Bull market is longest in history, as they say “trees do not grow to the sky”….it’s all a matter of time. All the usual suspects are at play for the end of a cycle, rising rates, rising inflation, rising employment, rising wage pressures, etc.

    My concern is portfolio positioning for a higher rate environment. Utilities and other rate sensitives will underperform for sure. I would keep them, as when the recession hits they will outperform.

    Best case in add industrials or growth stocks with growing dividends….US has the best choice.

    But right now accumulating cash until I see something worth buying.

  2. Canuck2004 Says:

    HXD = TSX Bear ETF

    Note Bullish Rounding Bottom or Saucer….break out above 200 DMA.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95568918971

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/roundingbottom.asp

  3. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong on the DOW:

    “Well the target wee of 10/01 produced a high and and an outside reversal to the downside. The next target is now the week of 10/15-22. A weekly closing below 25753 will confirm it should be a sharp decline. For now, we see that the uptrend channel and the breakout channel converge at 26392-26408 and we are currently trading at 26155. By next week, the technical support will lie at 24929 and resistance at 26298.

    We have a Directional Change due the week of the 22nd and then we should see the opposite trend into the week of the elections 11/05. Our next weekly Panic Cycle will appear the week of 11/26.

    We have a Daily Bearish at 26349 and an important one at 26037. A daily closing below that will bring the Weekly Bearish Reversal into play. Beyond that, we have Daily Bearish under the market at 25805 and 25294.

    the next two Daily targets in time will be 10/15 and 10/18.

    So buckle up. As we head into these chaotic elections, the model is clearly showing that we should expect far more civil unrest and clearly the new Democratic strategy is in fact to encourage violence. The left is turning toward a far more violent profile. Civility is gone. This is by no means going to end very nicely. The new motto of the left – WARNING – WE MAY NOT PLAY NICELY WITH OTHERS.”

  4. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    https://invst.ly/8u47s

    Watch this channel.

    Nice drop today.

  5. bruce Says:

    tnx Sherri…….

  6. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    More support lines from 2017 and 2016.

    Sorry, will not be able to post until later.

    Maybe Ron/Bc can draw some support lines earlier than I can.

  7. Mary Says:

    Canuck 2004, Sherri and Anna

    Thanks!

  8. Ana Says:

    #3. Sherri,

    Thank you for posting Armstrong. The last paragraph is absolutely promoting hatred and violence.

    Armstrong and his arrogance. Such total garbage.

    “clearly the new Democratic strategy is in fact to encourage violence.”

    Armstrong is a replica of Donald Trump, a far-right whose job it is to accuse others of what they are doing.

  9. Florence Stokes Says:

    canuck2004: Thanks again for all the information, I find it very valuable. CMR looks like a great place to park cash.

  10. Canuck2004 Says:

    Florence

    Yes I have tested many others over time, but on Scotia itrade this ETF is commission free…which is ideal for a cash instrument. I talked to the guy who runs the ETF many years ago when he cam as a guest with Don Vialoux to Richmond BC…must have been 2006 or 7…I forget ….been tracking it ever since.

    For many years the rates were so low that CMR made so sense holding it….but recently with higher rates, works just fine, about 1.2%. Steady as a rock, pays monthly, better than nothing as cash in a TFSA and RRSP. Trading accounts usually pay nothing for CASH, except for a few non bank trading platforms.

    CMR is for short term holds.

    I also put together a small portfolio of 10 cash like free ETFs at Scotia as a test to see if I could get stability and a better yield than a term deposit or savings account. I blended several short term Junk and Govt. Bond ETFs, 10 of them, various weights, CMR being the core, and added some FIE and XUT for equity diversification and extra yield. Worked OK, until today….lol….but now not so sure….I expect Poloz to raise rates again next meeting….so we will see. Bonds are short term…concentration 5 years or less.This is a small portfolio I am using as a test, as we change gears after 10 years of emergency low rates.

    Scotia Momentum Savings is about 1.8%, pays quarterly, available anytime
    My ETF Bond portfolio, about 3.9%, pays monthly, cashable anytime

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX broke below it’s January high breakout support level today and plunged to the 2800 level that saw that price point serve as resistance twice in March and again in June before breaking out over that level in July and testing it successfully as support in August. So here we are once again testing the 2800 level. Not far below is a more important price point which is the 200ema plus the uptrendline from the early 2016 low point. That was a significant price low. A break below the 2750 area would be very bearish and suggest much more downside. Price presently is very oversold and due for at least a dead cat bounce very soon but I certainly wouldn’t chase it as I’ve said before. The Weekly chart shows the bigger picture plus the large negative divergence on most any oscillator with the recent new price highs. Price is close to testing the 50wk EMA with this selloff and the uptrendline from 2016. A break below this 2750 level would suggest a pullback to test the uptrendline from 2009 at 2200 which is also the 2016 price high support. That would be a more realistic pullback testing a long term moving average and 200weekly EMA. Those steep uptrendlines that move up and away from the major uptrendline never do hold forever and tend to come back to earth. Too many complacent bullish people out there that need to come down to reality.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53676442624&a=579408698

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=1994-03-10&id=p82523657302&a=579408389

  12. Sherri Says:

    Warning: For mature audiences only. Viewer discretion is advised.

    Armstrong:

    “The cyclical picture is still one that remains a broad path of consolidation. This is why we warned that it is just not going to be over until we get past November for then we have the elections. The decline has been blamed on rising interest rates as if they just discovered that and China now search people at the border for bringing back Luxury goods from the USA. Keep in mind that a Democratic victory in the November elections will be really bad overall because the confidence in the market will be undermined. Still, that does not mean the market would be dead. As long as it is worse elsewhere, then the capital will still seek shelter but not in bonds. Nevertheless, when we glance at all three US share market indexes, the striking thing the jumps out is the lack of an nice isolated high. This formation ensures that the bull run is by no means over yet. Indeed, we have three indexes and each peaked at a different month August – September – October.

    From a cyclical perspective, exceeding the August high during October on the 3rd yet failing to get through overhead resistance has remained as a highly volatile calling card for October/November. This is especially true since the NASDAQ has not exceeded the August high warning that the market was indeed encountering overhead resistance This was the case for the Dow Jones, but clearly not the NASDAQ which was holding back. We need a Monthly Closing below 23995 to signal a serious correction becomes possible.

    A weekly closing now back above 25806 at the end of the week will signal a rally into the next target.Major closing support lies at 25045 for the close of this week.We have a Directional Change tomorrow and the next daily target in time will be Monday 15th. Holding today’s low tomorrow implies a bounce. So pay attention to the opening.

    The NASDAQ, on the other hand, did NOT exceed the August high so that left the pattern intact that an August high would be followed by an October/November low. The NASDAQ even elected a Weekly Bearish on Friday warning that a sharp decline was likely. Now a closing below 708400 on Friday in the NASDAQ warns that we are looking at a sharp decline to test the Monthly Bearish Reversals in the 690000 zone.

    We have to be concerned that since this week is a Directional Change, volatility will remain high next week and then the next turning point will be the week of 10/22 followed by the election week of 11/05, this can get really dicey and a whipsaw cannot be ruled out. If we now close this week at least back above 718370, we could see this week’s low hold and then a swing up into 10/22 and a retest of the lows into the election.

    When we turn to the S&P500, here we have a high between the Dow & NASDAQ which formed in September. The market has exceeded the January high but remains within the well defined Uptrend Channel. We have technical support at 2768 and 2635. A closing at the end of this week ABOVE 2681 will also warn we could have a bounce. However, we do have resistance at 2795 so we really need a close back above that area. A closing above 2851 will signal a STRONG BOUNCE IS LIKELY. Daily Bullish is now at 2921.”

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    For those looking for a cash savings account you can use as you wish and even pay bills with and would like to earn 2.75% interest for 6 months plus get a bonus of $25 to $50 cash, click on the first link. I’ve enjoyed using Tangerine for years now. Plus anyone you know that opens an account will earn you $25 each for the recommendation. You’ll also get an orange Key number to give out to anyone opening an account so you will get a $25 bonus plus so will the person who opened an account get $25. Tangerine online bank is owned by The Bank of Nova Scotia to boot. Beats the hell out of most financial institutions for cash accounts that you can have or use or pay bills with anytime you like. And you can put up to $500K in that account. You do have to call them at the 6 month time of the promotion and presently you’d likely just get 2.50% after that. I like to have cash spread out more so also use EQ Bank and they pay 2.30% all the time and don’t have promotional deals. But same idea with having the cash at hand any time you wish.

    https://www.tangerine.ca/en/landing-page/save-money/index.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMInebm6LT93QIVEttkCh1okw4_EAAYASAAEgJYcfD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CKzBv-y0_d0CFSMG5wodT5EHAQ

  14. bruce Says:

    tnx again Sherri…….

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