Pre-opening Comments for Thursday October 11th
U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures moved sharply higher following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was an increase to 210,000 from 207,000 last week. Actual was 214,000. Consensus for the September Consumer Price Index was a gain of 0.2% versus an increase of 0.2% in August. Actual was a gain of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for the September Consumer Price Index was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in August. Actual was.an increase of 0.1%
Delta Airlines gained $1.65 to $51.36 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/clip_image0011-4.png "clip_image001[1]")
Walgreen Boots dropped $2.16 to $70.15 after reporting lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter sales.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/clip_image0021-6.png "clip_image002[1]")
Costco gained $2.75 to $223.80 after reporting higher than consensus September sales.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/clip_image0031-4.png "clip_image003[1]")
EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment
Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2018/10/10/stock-market-outlook-for-october-11-2018/
Note seasonality charts on Producer Prices, Vehicle Sales, Wholesale Sales and Wholesale Inventories.
Observation
Damage from the third strongest hurricanes on record in the U.S. (and its expected impact on the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2018) triggered general selling in U.S. equity markets. The VIX Index spiked to over 22%
StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. Breakouts: $CAH $NEE $AEP. Breakdowns:$GT $MAR $NKE $TROW $COL $TDG $NVDA.
More breakdowns between 10:00 and 11:30: $UA $BKNG $CSX $EXPD $LLL $PNR $XYL $FLT
Editor’s Note: After 11:30 AM EDT, add the following S&P 500 stocks to the list of breakdowns:
CPRT, BK, AME, ITW, ADBE, GOOG, GOOGL, V, JBHT, L, HIG, BEN, DHI, FDX, CSCO
S&P 500 SPDRs $SPY moved below intermediate support at $285.42
Semiconductor iShares $SOXX moved below $174.57 extending an intermediate downtrend.
CAE Inc $CAE.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $25.01 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Retail SPDRs $XRT moved below $47.75 extending an intermediate downtrend.
South Korea iShares $EWY moved below $62.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Suncor $SU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $49.65 extending an intermediate downtrend
BlackBerry $BB.CA moved below $12.34 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Laurentian Bank $LB.CA moved below $41.54 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Lithium ETN $LIT moved below $30.72 extending an intermediate downtrend.
EAFE iShares $EFA moved below $65.15 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Large cap China iShares $FXI moved below $39.82 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Encana $ECA.CA $ECA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $15.46 Cdn. completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.
SNC Lavalin $SNC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $50.09, $49.01 and $48.28 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Fairfax Financial $FFH.CA moved below $678.04 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Goldman Sachs $GS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $218.17 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Shaw Communications $SJR $SJR.B.CA, a TSX 60 stocks moved below $18.89 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend.
Recipe Unlimited $RECP.CA moved below $26.99 extending an intermediate downtrend
Technology SPDRs $XLK moved below $70.08 extending an intermediate downtrend.
TSX Energy iShares $XEG.CA moved below $11.74 extending an intermediate downtrend.
Rogers Communications $RCI $RCI.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $50.15 U.S. completing a double top pattern.
Trader’s Corner
Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Commodities
Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
Sectors
Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 10th 2018
Green: Increase from previous day
Red: Decrease from previous day
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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer
The Barometer plunged 23.60 to 24.40 yesterday. It changed from intermediate neutral to intermediate oversold on a move below 40, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.
TSX Momentum Barometer
The Barometer dropped another 5.88 to 18.91 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold, but continues to trend down.
Tired of seeing your seasonal fund remain stagnant when seasonally favoured sectors move higher? Consider switching to the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio http://www.equityclock.com/About/Seasonal-Advantage-Portfolio/ … #SeasonalInvestingDoneRight
Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at
www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed
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October 11th, 2018 at 6:58 am
Nasdaq 100 high = 7700
Nasdaq 100 December contract = yesterday close = 7032
I have some cash so :
1. I place an order to buy at 6900 for a third of the total amount ; 6900 is around 10 % off from 7700
2. at 6500 for the other third = around 15 % off from the 7700 high
3. at 6100 for the last third = around 20 % off from the high
Last night the low was 6925.50 but now is 6986
October 11th, 2018 at 6:59 am
I placed
October 11th, 2018 at 10:35 am
Armstrong this morning:
“We can see that when yesterday opening inside the channel, the break began. We held the previous Breakline and that rests today at 25557.05. With today as a Directional Change, we have a reasonable shot that we can see a temp low today with a bounce into Monday. The Dow has not broken anything important with respect to broad support. That lies at the 24965 level. A closing today above 2557.05 will raise the possibility of a temp low. A closing above 25889 will increase the chances for a bounce into Monday.
In the SPX, our projected technical support lies at 2765 and so far the market fell to 2767. A closing below 2565 will technically imply a further decline rather than a bounce. You want to watch 2765 intraday as important tech support.Breaking 2760 intraday may lead to a drop to the 2720 area. After that, the tech support forms at 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the market is starting to firm.
We also have a Directional Change in the SPX on a weekly level. The next three weeks look to be an increase in volatility ahead.”
October 11th, 2018 at 12:22 pm
tnx again Sherri……
October 11th, 2018 at 2:27 pm
$SPX $ES
Appears as though there is a flag being built.
The MACD has crossed on the weekly chart.
This is my chart in case anyone is interested.
https://invst.ly/8ukgc
I welcome any comments on it. I will do more work on a longer chart.
Thank you Ron/BC for your charts yesterday. Brilliant as usual.
October 11th, 2018 at 2:45 pm
$SPX $ES
The MACD on the 30 minutes has just crossed to the downside.
October 11th, 2018 at 5:00 pm
Sherri,
Thanks for Armstrong and he is very active with this market move – another message at 2:20 this aft… hope to see it. So appreciate seeing these – between Armstrong and Ciovacco I hope to be on the right side of the market….
October 11th, 2018 at 6:57 pm
Thanks Canuck2004 and Ron/BC for information yesterday. Ron, do you have an orange key so you can get $25 for Tangerine??
October 11th, 2018 at 7:09 pm
Florence Stokes
Yes I have an orange key number. I’m not at home right now but will be tonight sometime so will post the orange key number then. And anyone opening a savings account with Tangerine and using my orange key number will also get $25 too as you likely know by now.
October 11th, 2018 at 9:21 pm
sherri
I just noticed that michael campbell will be interviewing armstrong on his saturday morning radio show…….
October 11th, 2018 at 10:10 pm
tawny,
I think I understand Ciovacco and I appreciate you having introduced him on this site many moons ago. But how do you use Armstrong to figure out what is the right side of the market? Do you think the number “2565” from this sentence was a typo? “A closing below 2565 will technically imply a further decline rather than a bounce.” Thanks for your thoughts.
Ana, I agree with your view on Armstrong. Thanks for posting your charts.I am not day trading, so I can’t comment on your charts. But I imagine there could be a bounce before further declines into the U.S. mid term election. At some point, I expect the market will decide that democrats reigning in the nutcase in the white house might be a good thing. Therefore, there may be a big relief rally after the election. Of course, this is pure conjecture.
October 11th, 2018 at 10:44 pm
Armstrong afternoon update:
”
The Dow is trading at 25360 after we got the mid-day rally. A close today below 25454 will keep the market weak. A closing BELOW 25294 today should signal a further decline and the next low may unfold on Monday. If we get this sell signal, then we should move to the next Weekly Bearish which lies at the 24965 level and if that is elected tomorrow, then we should test the Monthly Bearish in the 23 zone next week.
We are setting the stage for a real interesting outcome here right on time for the WEC
The SPX has fallen to 2745. The SPX broke the 2760 intraday but the key support is now 2720-2717 and 2678. A closing above 2717 tomorrow will imply the market is starting to firm.”
October 11th, 2018 at 10:45 pm
Thanks, Bruce. Will listen to that for sure.
October 12th, 2018 at 12:24 am
Florence Stokes
Here is my Tangerine Orange Key Number: 44070153s1
Also I believe if you also open up a chequing account with the savings account you get double the $25. And of course so would I. No charges on either account.
October 12th, 2018 at 12:31 am
Armstrong
“The Dow fell to the bottom of the Channel and actually held another Daily Bearish Reversal we have at 25052.50 closing at 2052.83. This now puts critical support on today’s low and tomorrow we have a Weekly Bearish at 24965 which becomes critical. We have now generated a Weekly Bullish on our Minor model which will be 25044. To be a strong buy signal, the market must close above 25754.
We still see next week as a target rather than this week. We will update tomorrow after the opening.”