Tech Talk for Friday October 12th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday October 12th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 29 points in pre-opening trade.

U.S. bank stocks generally moved higher following release of third quarter results this morning. JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo moved higher after releasing strong third quarter earnings.

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Microsoft gained $3.14 to $109.05 after Macquarie upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral.

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Canadian Pacific (CP $264.97 Cdn) is expected to open higher after Stifel Nicolaus raised its rating to Buy from Hold.

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Eastman Chemical (EMN $82.05) is expected to open higher after JP Morgan increased its rating to Overweight from Neutral.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/10/11/stock-market-outlook-for-october-12-2018/

Note seasonality reports on the Consumer Price Index, Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply, Crude Oil and the Telecommunications Sector.

 

Observations

World equity markets were spooked partially by a 5% drop by the Shanghai Composite Index to a four year low.

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Equal Weighted S&P 500 Index and related ETF had a rough day.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bearish. 27 stocks broke intermediate support. One broke resistance: $MUR.

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Gold ETN $GLD moved above $114.78 completing a double bottom pattern

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TSX Gold iShares $XGD.CA moved above $10.21 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Individual Canadian gold breakouts: $YRI.CA $AEM.CA.

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United Kingdom iShares $EWU moved below $32.65 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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TSX 60 stocks breaking intermediate support this morning: $BAM $QSR.CA $CNR.CA, $TRP.CA $BNS.CA

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TSX Financials iShares $XFN.CA moved below $36.89 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Frontier iShares $FM moved below $27.46 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Gold Miners ETF $GDX moved above $19.49 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Mexico iShares $EWW moved below $48.40 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Junior Gold ETF $GDXJ moved above $28.74 and $29.14 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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First Majestic Silver $AG $FR.CA moved above $7,83 Cdn and $6.07 U.S. completing a double bottom pattern.

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The VIX Index spiked higher after 2:30 PM when a large program sell order hit the market. Another 39 S&P 500 stocks broke support thereafter.

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TMX Group $X.CA moved below $82.56 and $83.94 completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Days of supply of #Oil at 24.6, now three days above average for this time of year. $USO $CL_F $XLE

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US production of Oil hits another all-time high, pressuring stockpiles of the commodity. $USO $CL_F $XLE

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US CPI up 0.1% (NSA) in September, half of the average increase for this time of year. $MACRO #Economy #Inflation

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Trader’s Corner

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for October 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for October 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for October 11th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

2018 CSTA Annual Conference

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CSTA Calgary Edition of the CSTA Annual Conference

Online option available – please click here for details and registration – Space is limited REGISTER FOR THE ONLINE OPTION NOW!

JOIN US LIVE – REGISTER NOW!

Live event will be hosted at the Aloft Calgary University

          • Address: 2359 Banff Trail NW, Calgary, Alberta

          • Phone:(403) 289-1973

Date and Time

          • October 13, 2018

          • 7:00 am to 5:00 PM (Registration opens at 7:00 am)

Agenda:

7:00am

Registration and coffee

 

8:00am

Live speaker

Greg Schnell (StockCharts.com)

9:20am

Speaker via Webinar

Hima Reddy (HimaReddy.com)

10:45am

Speaker via Webinar

Brian Shannon (Alphatrends)

12:00am

Lunch break

 

1:00pm

Speaker via Webinar

Jon Vialoux (CastleMoore) Seasonality Setups

2:30 pm

Keynote Speaker – Live Speaker

Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray

3:50 pm

Panel

Craig Johnson, Cory Mitchell, Greg Schnell

4:50 pm

Thank-you, Closing remarks

 

For more information please contact:

Mark Soehner

CSTA 2018 Calgary Conference Chair

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 13.40 to 11.00 yesterday, a level that has not been reached since January 2016. It is deeply oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 0.42 to 18.49 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold, but has yet to show signs of bottoming.

 

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Seasonal Advantage Portfolio continues to mitigate much of this market weakness. How are you positioned? equityclock.com/about/seaso… $SPX $SPY

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



37 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday October 12th 2018”

  1. tawny Says:

    From last night
    Paula said
    Paula Says:
    October 11th, 2018 at 10:10 pm
    tawny,
    I think I understand Ciovacco and I appreciate you having introduced him on this site many moons ago. But how do you use Armstrong to figure out what is the right side of the market? Do you think the number “2565” from this sentence was a typo? “A closing below 2565 will technically imply a further decline rather than a bounce.”
    Thanks for your thoughts.
    At some point, I expect the market will decide that democrats reigning in the nutcase in the white house might be a good thing. Therefore, there may be a big relief rally after the election. Of course, this is pure conjecture.

    Paula
    Yes, I think Ciovacco (especially weekly videos which I scan) is excellent and recall his Tweets being voted among the most respected in the investing arena.

    As for Armstrong, his messages have stated that the bull market is not over and we are still consolidating. There have been times when I was a more frequent trader but often bought back at more than I sold for, so I am into holding through the swings (with some cash to add with opportunity), but I do read and pay attention. He recently said in regular blog to hold unless there is a monthly bearish reversal.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/
    I will also watch the weekly reversals and if elected I might sell all or portions of holdings.

    As for “I expect the market will decide that democrats reigning in the nutcase in the white house might be a good thing,” I was just reading this “But our sources overseas are more concerned about politics. The Democrats are vowing to raise taxes and lower health care costs which they created in the first place.” Personally, I would not bet that the markets will respond favorably to a Trump rout. Agree that trump is a nutcase, but he has done some good and the markets reacted very positively to the reduction in taxes.

  2. tawny Says:

    Sheri

    Again, thank so much for Armstrong – he has been posting a lot during this downturn… see he posted again after 11 pm last night… hopefully we get to see… at any rate. Futures are looking good.

  3. Canuck2004 Says:

    TSX

    OK, first thing I covered my short on the TSX, sold HXD….not that I think there isn’t more downside risk…big support around 15,000 and we may get there yet…but 3/4 the way done already…..who knows. Had it over a week, so got the lion’s share of the downside, good enough for me, nice little profit….not greedy. Like someone said years ago “think of the trade as a yard stick, all I want is a good 2 feet in the middle”.

    Trading account right now 100% cash until I see stocks moving up. I like to have the wind at my back…not interested in picking bottoms.

  4. Canuck2004 Says:

    Investing (as opposed to speculating):

    Earlier talking about CMR, in RRSP/TFSA I have also used as a “sweep” BKL.F commission free on Scotia itrade for many years…short term US Senior loan, CAD hedged, relatively stable, good for short term cash…pays about 3.4%…used to pay nearly double that a few years ago….so not for long term as it will drift lower a bit, just a few weeks or month or so. CMR solid as a rock but 50 bucks a share, BKL.F around 19, so better for small amounts of cash as it comes in at different times of the month. Then I sell them to buy stock once I have enough to get what I want.

    This year has been a trying year as several of my long term holds have been bought out… Verasen (old Fort Chicago) was bought by Pembina, already had full position, so had to find a new home for that money; Student Transportation, bought by Dejardin Group so off market, same issue; Enbridge Income Fund, brought back into the parent Enbridge, which I already had a full position. All off these I have owned since the shortly IPOd over 20 years ago or so…old income trusts….a long time. Big monthly yield payers so very hard to replace that yield. Harder since the demise of the Income Trust.

    Still I manage to keep my average yield at 5-5.5% or so. Since I retired 7 years ago I cannot add to my RRSP so I can easily calculate my yield growth….it’s around 8% a year…which is very good. Every year I get 8% more yield than the year before….never had a job that gave me a raise like that.

    I am well diversified in RRSP/TFSA, about 30% US, 10% Europe/Asia, the rest in Canada….relatively stable. Always 100% invested, always have been for 40 years. Have been outperforming the TSX for many years, but not hard to do as TSX has been the worst performer worldwide.

    I see my TFSA as a replacement for my RRSP as I will have to RRIF eventually and bleed all the money out of it. The TFSA is good as they can’t force you to bleed it, so it’s my deep storage money…probably never use it…but it’s there and always available.

    Since my retirement I have been taking the yearly 5,500 for my TFSA from my RRSP, so funding the TFSA directly from the RRSP…basically replicating my RRSP holdings in my TFSA and my wife’s TFSA, for ease of management….for example, if I own BCE, I own it in all 3 accounts.

    As rule at least 40 names, equal weights as possible on book value, as I am more concerned with the cash flow growth from yield than the capital growth aspect. I get that too but not my priority. This means on average each position is 2.5% of the portfolio… unlikely all will cut dividends or pay-outs at the same time, so cash flow almost guaranteed.

    When any one position gets above 5% I look to reduce and reallocate.

    Example: Bank of America, bought lots in the 5-9 range, when it got to 17, sold half, at 25 sold another half, earlier this year sold another half around 32….then reallocated the funds elsewhere. This year BAC got to 8% of the portfolio, so time to reduce.

    I did the same thing with QQC, the CAD hedged NASDAQ 100 ETF, commission free at Scotia. Sold half in early summer. Did the same sometime last year…was about 8% of portfolio….reallocated the funds elsewhere.

    All Index ETFS as one position, no more….as a rule not great yielders….so their job is to enhance growth. But I decorate around them with individual picks from each respective index as well.

    No trading, just rebalancing as needed. This year more than usual.

    Biggest issue I talked about previously. Interest rates peaked at 21% in 1981, past 10 years near zero, so I expect the pendulum to swing back up over the next few decades….higher interest rates going forward.

    Therefore I have to re-adjust my thinking about the type of security I add to my accounts going foreward….change the point of view I have had for the past 40 years….add instruments that will do well in a rising interest rate climate. I have to change gears….keep the names I have, just tweak the new entries in a different direction.

    I expect in the next couple years a recession, in the magnitude of 2008…this means a major correction before the recession. At that point I will add new names. Until then I will accumulate cash in RRSP/TFSA.

    I have never been a believer in CASH…only worth what you can buy with it at the moment…does not keep up with inflation….so I have always been 100% invested in something, stocks, real estate, etc.

    Anyway, that’s about all I have to say…don’t come on here too often, too busy… now getting ready for my move to our winter home In Phoenix…will be gone for 6 months as usual. Busy with the two homes updating, decorating, etc.

  5. Paula Says:

    Tawny,
    Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I relate to your “There have been times when I was a more frequent trader but often bought back at more than I sold for, so I am into holding through the swings (with some cash to add with opportunity)”… I had a problem with holding onto winners and going with the trend, so trying not to be so cute. Also, trying to add to the Canadian dividend payers in my taxable account – get that dividend tax credit working for me. These are in a handful of blue chips, I am not looking at new stocks, b/c I want to keep it simple. For me, the fewer names I have to follow, the better. Of course, ETFs for foreign diversification, so overall, trying to limit the number of names I follow to 20, max 25.
    I cannot condone the actions of the nutcase – I believe more harm than good e.g. the trade war… BUT I don’t want to start a political debate, so will say no more on this subject.

  6. Paula Says:

    Canuck2004,
    Thanks for updating us on your activities. You certainly have done well and have many lessons to impart. I recall that you were a teacher, so I guess it comes naturally.
    For those who don’t have a Scotia account, but do have TD, a good cash holding is TDB8150, which is considered a mutual fund, so no commissions, even for frequent in and out. It is actually a high interest saving account, currently yielding 1.35%. It is also covered by CDIC insurance up to 100,000. I have not looked into the other options on this link:
    https://www.td.com/ca/en/asset-management/additional-solutions/

  7. Paula Says:

    Canuck2004,
    I admire that you recognize the need to change your point of view that you have had for 40 years. That is a difficult thing to do.

  8. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    For day traders.

    Day trading charts indicate that it is not yet the time to start buying.

    The high of 2785 might be the top of #4 wave, so we still have #5 wave to occur.

    The 30 minute MACD has crossed to the downside once more.

  9. Ana Says:

    I always loved this quotation, I know the music lovers on this blog with enjoy!

    “Some people are so poor,
    All they have is money.”

    Bob Marley

  10. kam Says:

    Thanks Canuck2004 for posting. Hope you post more.

    Now regarding SPX,

    I have posted about EW and what they think target is. With this break below 2870 and all the damage to the charts here is the update from head guy. Can’t post more but this as close to copy paste as I can:

    “What will it take me to consider the long side up here again?

    First, we MUST move through resistance. Remember, as long as we are below resistance, I am looking for the 2600 region.

    Second, the (a) wave of the wave (v) of (5) in the ending diagonal would take us to the 2840-65SPX region. But, that may still only be a corrective rally. So, IF we get through resistance, and we really are in the bullish case, the market will come back and re-test former resistance from above in a corrective manner. . . ie. the (b) wave on the 60 minute chart.

    Third, ONLY IF we see a clear i-ii structure develop off a corrective re-test in a (b) wave pullback would I consider going long . . . and that would only be for a target back up in the region of the prior highs.

    Fourth, I would exit, and play that plan all over again for a green b-wave.

    This is my plan ONLY IF we break out over resistance. There are ONLY two places I would even consider a long positions, and I have outlined what I would need to see to make it a stronger consideration.

    The market has become VERY treacherous, and the evidence has certainly been tilted towards us already being in the larger degree wave 4, as presented on our daily chart. So, any long position from this region would have to REALLY prove itself. Otherwise, I am staying out of any long positions until we get down towards the 2600 region.”

    https://imgur.com/2aVNS6o

    I have taken my lump of coal and sitting on sidelines at the moment except some gold stocks. hard to take any big position with all the whipsaws.

  11. kam Says:

    Adding to that is that most likely the major 3rd wave is over unless market finds support here and go over the resistance in post #10 then 3000 is the target. 3225 is off the table now. And if major 4th have started, it will clean the clock of all the bulls as posted target in above post.

  12. Paula Says:

    Ana,
    #8. thanks. trying not to buy too soon.

    #9. thanks. grateful for all the things that money cannot buy.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    Re:#9. I’ve always related to that saying as well. The feeling you have with a lot of cash in the bank or under the mattress is a warm, fuzzy, secure feeling that very little will ever replace. I do also have a condo I own outright and have no debts which keeps my expenses down,but after the newness wears off and its just another place to live it’s the CASH that keeps you safe and secure with few boundaries to worry about. It’s always nice to know you can do most anything or go anywhere within reason even if you don’t want to do much. It’s a state of mind that’s always the most important. And CASH will do that far better than “stuff” ever will.

  14. Paula Says:

    Stock Trader’s Almanac

    http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/178931611183/octoberphobia-strikes-again

  15. Canuck2004 Says:

    #13

    We have no mortgage, no loans, have zero debt…own two homes, one in Victoria BC and one in Phoenix AZ, and we both have good defined benefit government pensions with COLA clauses.

    Both have RRSPs and our TFSAs are maxed out every year from RRSP cash flow for tax reasons….better to take out a little now at a lower tax bracket than later when forced to with a RRIF.

    All this did not happen by accident, we planned this for decades, worked hard for it…lots of overtime….changed careers for getter pensions. I’ve had a RRSP since I was in my twenties….

    If I retired in 1983 and sold my house in Richmond BC for the then current value of 100k and put that in the bank, there is no way it would ever equal the current market value…. by any other investment….and 5 years later in 1987 I would not have been able to buy back my old house as prices more than doubled.

    Cash in the bank may give you a warm fuzzy feeling but it does not hold its purchasing power.

    There was time when a million dollars was a lot of money, I could have bought 10 good quality houses in Richmond in 1983, today I could not even buy one, not even half of one.

    My grandfather retired in 1942, sold his big house in Montreal, put the money in the bank and rented, in 20 years he was flat broke. That’s where I learned that lesson.

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    #15

    I was self employed most of my adult life and enjoyed doing what I please and bought and sold 9-10 homes along the way and made very good money each time. Wasn’t interest in a “job” regardless of what the pay or benefits were as I made my own pay and benefits. And I came and went freely which isn’t something an employee ever will be able to do. Wasn’t rocket science buying and selling homes in Victoria with the strength of the good weather and steadily rising prices ‘most’ of the time. Just had to know when to buy them and when to sell them just like stocks as there are bad times in real estate as well. But I never held them to rent out and always got back in cash. I knew many with rentals and all I ever heard was complaints and extreme repair bills and laws protecting the renters. And it’s that cash all my life that gave me opportunities that others didn’t have. We all know the saying “CASH IS KING”. Always has been and always will be. I recently bought a condo in a very strong sellers market in Victoria and got it by offering cash with no subject to’s and no need for personal bank approval and no inspection as I had a detailed depreciation report in hand. And my offer was good until midnight the next day. They took the bird in the hand instead of two possible in the bush and saved myself thousands of dollars. A realtor in my building has clients that want to view my unit and she can sell it for $40K to $65K more than I paid for it and they are eager to make the offer. But as much as I would enjoy making that cash quickly I value my place presently and really don’t need more and more money to enjoy life. So for now I’ll just enjoy my place without having to find another one like this. It can be done again and again but can take time as well. But it was the cash offer that I made to the seller that got me this deal and so many others over the years. So no one will ever convince me that cash isn’t king. I have a lifetime of proof that it is. But you do have to know how to leverage it like anything else. As a self employed entrepreneur I’ve never depended on others for pay to survive and just don’t think like an employee would. That has served me well all my life including my retirement now.

  17. Paula Says:

    #15 and #16: very interesting debate between Ron/BC and Canuck2004. They illustrate very different perspectives but each successful in their own way.

  18. JP/BC Says:

    I have been reading the women on this site disparaging Trump. You do realize that the majority of white American women voted for Trump over Hillary (a woman)? They must have had their reasons, as Trump has always been Trump. His past and personality haven’t changed and have always been there for all to see. Like him or hate him, he inspired enough people to get him elected.

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    Well I’m not suggesting I’ve had a charmed life and been successful in everything I touched. Anyone who tells you they have done everything right is full of it. I’ve made plenty of mistakes along the way but being self employed I could always bust my butt and make it up. Not so easy for those locked up in an office somewhere without that freedom. AS a small contractor I asked all my customers how they achieved success and learned a lot from them. I also learned along the way that most men do like to hand you a lot of b.s. too and exaggerate their successes. You can get a more honest answer from their spouse,lol. The old saying “Believe nothing that you hear and 1/2 of what you see” is good to keep in mind. Or all that glitters is not Gold. But the most important thing all my life other than family was my freedom. One must make money to have that freedom but you don’t have to be rich. And I’m satisfied I accomplished what I did my way and can enjoy life now in retirement and don’t have to worry about investments crashing and burning. But to each his/her own……… lots of ways to do this.

  20. Sherri Says:

    #2 Tawny
    I posted the last Armstrong post from yesterday, last night #15. Have yet to post anything from today

  21. Sherri Says:

    Armstrong this morning:

    “Yesterday was a Directional Change and the next target is Monday 15th. We can see that the market fell and held the bottom of the uptrend channel. This does not guarantee that the decline is over. It merely suggests that we can get that bounce into Monday and then resume the decline. It all depends upon the closing and a close below 25753 today will tend to warn that we can resume the decline.

    I posted the view of the DAX. Note that there the high remains January. This is indicative of the fact that the Capital Flows have moved into the USA and this was the drive behind the Dow Rally into October. This has been a foreign capital inflow based upon the dollar and the pessimistic views outside the USA concerning Europe and China.

    We can see that the targets will be the 15th and 18th/19th next week. We expect volatility to rise into the end of next week crossing over into the week of the 22nd.

    We can see we have a Directional Change the week of the 22nd and then we have the week of the elections which will be followed by Panic Cycle the week of 11/26. High volatility will remain next week as well.

    The Reversals will be the determining factor for these moves. A closing above 25044 today should imply a bounce into Monday for 2 days and then back down. A closing today below 24965 will signal a drop ahead of another 1,000 points.”

  22. Ana Says:

    #18. JP/BC

    Are you referring to me?

    There is something you can do, to not be upset at the “disparaging” remarks about Trump. Just do not read my posts.

    I am sure there were many “white women” who voted for Adolf Hitler.

    Just because a lot of people do something, does not make it right.

    Donald Trump and his administration are morally bankrupt.

    Which are the qualities that you most admire about this man? His racism? His sexism? His lies? Do tell.

  23. rick Says:

    Ron/BC ,

    You helped a lot of people with info regarding stocks and TA on stocks .
    How about info regarding buying and selling houses too ?

    You wrote in #16 :
    “Wasn’t rocket science buying and selling homes in Victoria with the strength of the good weather and steadily rising prices ‘most’ of the time. Just had to know when to buy them and when to sell them just like stocks as there are bad times in real estate as well.”

    When is a good moment to buy a house in Victoria or other town ?
    How do you know when ?

    Thanks

  24. JP/BC Says:

    Re #23

    No where in my #18 post do I say that I support Trump. I just made an observation. Logic would suggest that many of the Trump voters previously voted for the Democrats in order for them to get a majority.

    Are you suggesting that these (previous) Obama voters are racist, sexist, liars? Or did they just become that way once they voted for Trump? My read is that the voters saw the Domocratic party as having become representatives of the wealthy Liberal elete, much like how Canadians saw the Liberals under Jean Chretien. Both the Democrats and Liberals had lost touch with the plight of the middle class. Does that also make Canadians that switched their vote to Conservative from Liberal akin to Hitler supporters?

  25. Ron/BC Says:

    Rick
    Here on some thoughts on how I deal with real estate. I’m sure there are many ways to deal with it but I wrote down what I’ve used over the years that worked for me.

    Rick
    Victoria and the entire West Coast is a highly desired area to live and invest in property. So for starters the old saying “location,location,location” is accurate. But any city that has a strong need for housing is good. So the next step is where to buy in those areas. Again,another old saying is “buy the worst house in the best area”. The reason being is your place will increase in value more than other areas as that specific area is very desired. So with very little repair it can be sold for far more than you paid for. Especially when sales pick up. And the bonus is you live in a better area which has a lot of advantages. Or it can be bought and rented out for top dollar while it increases in value. But if they are still to pricey for you in that nicer area buy in any area where there are solid sales overall is also ok. But other than the obvious if you don’t have a lot of cash on hand talk to some financial institutions about how much you can borrow for an property investment so you are ready to pounce when you see a good deal. So get ” Pre Approved” . In Victoria I called Ron Neal Real Estate and they will set up your preferences on what you wish to buy and once this is set up you will instantly get “every” listing in the specific area you wish to buy in and your price and size. So you get email sent to your computer and phone and you will see everything within your parameters as soon as they are listed for sale. Nice to have that heads up. I set it up with them to send all condo & townhouse listings up to $500K in the areas I was interested in. So I get these listings as soon as they are officially listed. The condo I recently bought I called my realtor and told her I wanted to view it immediately. And with condos you MUST read the depreciation report and they all must have one which costs the condo strata about $5000. So you read that and look for major repairs due over the years ahead. In older condos you will find some serious repairs likely ahead so must watch out for that. And on the Coast there are leaky condos (condos built between 1990 and 2000 roughly) So you want one of these to have been “remediated”. My place spent millions of dollars to get the entire building in as new condition.

    So first of all get set up for the free emails with an good sized real estate company with your price level and specific locations to get all the emails. Most companies have that very same listings set up. That will get you familiar with real estate value in these areas. And there is complete info on each listing with pictures and all the data to view. At some point you will have an excellent view of value of real estate in those areas. Once you feel you have a handle on value start looking at some places. And if you get serious about a unit read the depreciation report to see what has been clearly spelled out on future repair & the costs for that. MOST important with condos make sure the place you are considering buying is rentable. Many are not and must be owner occupied. Those are not revenue properties! Condos that are rentable are desired by not only someone looking for a home but investors looking for revenue property. Big difference. Some areas are hotter than others. Even with total sales down and all the government regulation Victoria sales are still strong. Unlike the stock market that can turn on a dime and plunge the housing market does give you far more time to enter and exit. Sorry to focus on Condos. You can set up the same thing with houses and duplexes. But rather than a depreciation report to read be sure to hire a well known inspector to go over the place with a fine tooth comb. They will find many things and that will give you bargaining power where a lower price is then re-offered due to these found repair needs.

    As far as timing goes the best time to buy is once prices stabilize after a slowdown in sales and start to pick up again. At that point there are many great deals as over leveraged owners want out more than make money. If you don’t mind rentals buy and rent out until price appreciates to give you a good profit. It’s not marriage so don’t worry about holding until it tops out as you will never know when that is and it doesn’t matter anyways. You don’t want to hold the place forever anyways as a house is a depreciating asset and needs constant repair. Another time is when prices are recovering and strong and the economy is improving. Then most everything goes up and continues to rise for a long time before the economy turns down.

    Actually the easiest way to deal with real estate without big repair bills or bad renters is to look for an area that is putting in roads and starting to sell building lots and building homes. Buying a building lot down the road from the developer that is in need of cash after a long expensive development will pay off in spades as all the homes that are built around you will enhance your then highly desired lot over a few months. Tends to produce a great return on investment with no hassles to speak of. These are just some views I have and I’m sure there are many other factors to consider to be successful in any real estate deal.

  26. Sherri Says:

    Worthwhile read from Lance Roberts:

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yes-something-just-broke-10-12-18/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Real%20Investment%20Report%20Yes%20Something%20Just%20Broke&utm_content=Real%20Investment%20Report%20Yes%20Something%20Just%20Broke+CID_19125c7340b1af94f1c9267ff8f17fd1&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

  27. JP/BC Says:

    Thanks Sherri, re #26

    Here are two more Lance Roberts related articles I found interesting:

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/vlog-why-the-stock-market-is-heading-for-disaster/

    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-upcoming-bond-bull-market/

  28. Muntazir Janmohamed Says:

    Thanks to all for their comments.

    Cannuck,

    It would be nice if you can post some of your 40 holdings for long term. Few months back you had posted drg.un & enf & I am happy with them. I do hold banks & pipelines. Want more div names. TIA

  29. Bernie Says:

    Why Stock Charts Are Misleading for Dividend Investors?
    https://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2015/03/why-stock-charts-are-misleading-for.html

  30. JP/BC Says:

    Two corrections to my post #24. It was in response to post #22 and I misspelled Democratic. I’m working on a smart phone and the screen is way too small for my fat fingers.

    Re post #25: Ron/BC, that was an incredibly inciteful post on buying real estate. You did leave out first step on buying a home in Victoria….win the lottery

  31. Ron/BC Says:

    JP/BC
    Re:#30
    Good point! I know a few people that basically did win the lottery. I don’t mean the one you buy a ticket for. These people were the beneficiary of a parent or grand parent that passed away and owned a home on the West Coast that were worth on average a million dollars or close to it.
    P.S. The proper spelling in #24 should be Democrapic…….

  32. NRG Says:

    Canuck 200a

    I am leaving today for Phoenix Az. from Alberta. Have a safe trip. It was great to read of your hard work and success in investing. If you can find the time when in Phoenix, we should meet up. I met with Ron/BC a few years back. I am in Surprise. Cheers

  33. Ron/BC Says:

    The uptrendline on the $SPX from early 2016 is still intact and holding. Plus the market is extremely oversold looking at most any oscillator. And the 20ema remains above the 50ema and the 50ema remains above the 200ema. For all the drama not much damage has occurred so far. A break below this uptrendline and 200ema would suggest much more on the downside. The Monthly chart gives a better perspective of where the $SPX is. The odds of the market rallying strongly to new highs from this point is slim and more likely to breakdown below the 2750 area and retest the uptrendline from the 2009 low which is roughly at the 2200 level.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02262099416&a=579408698

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1980-09-20&id=p08009035153&a=579408442

  34. Florence Stokes Says:

    Canuk2004: It was great to read all the information you posted, I always learn more from you. Were you ever a poster on the Trust” board on Stockhouse and then Investor Village? Your handle is familiar. Those were heady days when the trusts were running, I think that’s where I made most of my money; some of those poster gave great information. Enjoy your time in Phoenix!

  35. Florence Stokes Says:

    #29 Bernie: Great Article, I try to invest mostly in dividend stocks and then do a “sweep” account to take them out twice a month (my salary)!

  36. tawny Says:

    Paula and I both agree that this weekly video is valuable. This video puts the current “upset” into perspective. I find the video is too long and slow as I have a lack of time, but I scan through and get the message. It will help calm the nerves…

    https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/short-takes/stocks-beginning-of-the-end

  37. Paula Says:

    tawny,
    Yes, it is time consuming listening to these, but well worth it. I do the same “scanning” with programs I have recorded from BNN or CNBC. I watch on fast forward for those whose opinion I am interested in – generally the technical analysts. Saves time. I hope you are well and enjoying Mexico.
    Ron/BC,
    #19. Thanks for clarifying. I admire that you admit that you made plenty of mistakes along the way. I do find that those who talk about how they have done everything right are indeed full of it. And there is such a thing as enough money – don’t need to keep pursuing it for its own sake. As long as you have enough and don’t have to worry about money, you realize there are more important things in life.
    Ana,
    Try not to take the bait. It’s just not worth the time or trouble 😉

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