Tech Talk for Tuesday November 13th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday November 13th

U.S. equity index futures moved higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 11 points in pre-opening trade.

Home Depot gained $2.47 to $181.90 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter results. The company also raised its guidance.

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NVIDIA added $3.07 to $192.61 after Susquehanna upgraded the stock to Positive from Neutral.

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Michael Kors slipped $0.03 to $47.75 after MKM Partners lowered its target price to $52 from $74.

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Tyson Foods (TSN $61.61) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenues.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/11/12/stock-market-outlook-for-november-13-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Technology sector and the Nikkei Average.

 

Observations

The VIX Index spiked, led by weakness in the Technology sector (notably Apple).

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The Euro dropped to a 15 month low on strength in the U.S. Dollar Index to a 15 month high.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: (including 4 Utilities): $GIS $HSY $ED $FE $NEE $XEL. No breakdowns.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakouts included CMG, EVRG, LLY and PLD. Breakdown: GS.

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Goldman Sachs $GS, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $208.40 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Silver Equity ETF $SIL moved below $22.70 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Note the breaks below 20 day moving average by a wide variety of equity markets, commodities and sectors

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 12th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 12th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 12th 2018


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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Keith Richards’ Blog

Following is a link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/monday-madness-is-todays-selloff-a-reason-to-panic/

 

CSTA Oakville Chapter Monthly Meeting – November

· When: 14 Nov 2018

·   7:30 PM – 9:30 PM

· Location

River Oaks Community Centre – Community Room C 2400 Sixth Line, Oakville

Registration

· Guest Registration (first time visitors: Free. Please email bm@csta.org to register) – Others: $17.70

· Member Registration: Free


Presenter – Don Vialoux

o   Past President of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

o   Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. Title of the thesis to earn the designation was “Seasonality in Canadian Equity Prices”.

o   Fifty years of experience in the investment industry.

o   Advisor to the Horizons Seasonal  Rotation ETF: 2009-2015

o   Co-author of daily blogs on equity markets available free on the internet. The blogs are accessed at www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com

o   Frequent presenter on BNNBloomberg, Michael Campbell’s Money Show and Wall Street Raw.

o   Co-author of comments at www.StockTwits.com@EquityClock with over 46,000 followers. Inter-day technical comments are provided on equity indices, commodities, currencies, ETFs and actively traded U.S. and Canadian equities.

Topic – Timing the Market using Seasonal, Technical and Fundamental Research

**Members unable to attend in person are invited to join us remotely here.  Not a member?  Join here

Technical Scoop

Link to David Chapman’s Weekly Technical Scoop (Compliments of www.EnrichedInvesting.com )

http://www.enrichedinvesting.com/PDF/As-D%C3%A9j%C3%A0-vu-Rhymes-and-Unfolding-Bear-Twists-and-Turns-Seek-Opportunity-and-Maybe-Buy-Well-and-Hold.pdf

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer plunged 10.00 to 36.20 yesterday. It returned to Intermediate oversold from intermediate Neutral.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 1.12 to 31.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday November 13th 2018”

  1. ABP Says:

    There are a couple of gaps on the charts of the indices, including $spx, $indu, $ndx and $tsx. One is Oct.31/18, which may get filled today by the $ndx. However, there is also another gap back on Sept. 11/17 for all these indices. I wonder if gaps always get filled eventually or not.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p6552541614c&a=630835976&listNum=36

  2. paul ross Says:

    Ron/Bc,Bernie,

    Thanks for the ideas on Nov.12

    Ron I do have funds with EQ Band and I will follow up on the GIC idea as well.

    Bernie I purchased Mawer U.S. Equity only.I’m currently having medical problems that really slow me down so I’m moving slowly on investments these days. Please stay in touch with this Mawer sale.

  3. Bernie Says:

    Paul,

    Re: #2
    Other relatively safe long term options you might consider are Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC) and Mawer Balanced Fund. The 5-Yr weekly charts look decent to me and volatility is traditionally quite low which makes for better sleep at night. Perhaps Ron/BC could add his technical opinions on these.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HAC.TO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4499044305c
    https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/MAW104.CF/technical-chart?plot=LINE&volume=0&data=WO&density=X&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=EXPMA(50);EXPMA(10);SMACD(50,200,10);SMACD(20,50,10)&sym=MAW104.CF&grid=1&height=500&studyheight=100

  4. Bernie Says:

    Re: #3
    To see the entire barchart of Mawer Balanced Fund (MAW104) which I’ve linked you need to highlight the entire address then copy and paste it into address bar.

  5. Bernie Says:

    Re: #3-4
    I meant to say to highlight the entire link.

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Re:#3 Post. That 5 year Weekly chart shows price breaking down below the 50ema. One can see the significance of that support area where investors have bought it there on each pullback. Price has now fallen below it and after testing it from underneath has found it as resistance and pulled back again. This is a critical point technically that will tell you what the majority of investors are doing with the Fund. Watch for price to either clear $28.60 to be bullish again “OR” for price to break below $27.80 to confirm a downtrend in force. See Feb 2016 and Sept 2017 as an example what needs to occur to remain bullish. A Weekly chart is far more significant technically than a Daily one so the next breakout or breakdown will be important.
    By the way I had two Birdies recently. Haven’t had any of those for a long time ever since I stopped putting left hand low. Used to get them now and again back then. Perhaps I should go back to it again. Also I don’t think California is the best place to go for a winter holiday with the raging fires they’ve been having. Perhaps Mexico is a good bet. Or just stay home and renovate my condo that I’m just organizing now out of boredom.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Here is a very bullish chart of the Russell 2000 ETF RWM. Price broke out over $40 resistance which was also the 200ema and ran up to $43.73 and then pulled back and successfully tested the breakout point and then rallied again. All moving averages have curled up and crossed over. Very bullish chart if you don’t mind owning a Short Russell 2000 ETF.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RWM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9903211172c&a=630860036

  8. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC
    Joanne Klein, who is top ranked on the Public Chartlists on StockCharts recently started covering RWM. I made a bit of money using XSU.TO when RWM was dropping recently – just a quick trade in XSU but there is so little volume, probably won’t do it again.

    https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/chartbook/627249973

    http://schrts.co/q1D31a

  9. kam Says:

    Just an observations on funds and spy etc.

    I just went back and try seeing return on the Mawer fund comparing with spy or XSP.to, Cad hedged. This is what I saw:

    2009 low of Mawer fund is $11.85 and today close is $28.33 so about 140% increase in last 9 years.
    Feb 2016 low was $24.31 so increase of 16.5% to today’s close.

    2009 Low for SPY was $67.10 and today close is $272.06 so about 305% increase.
    Feb 2016 low was $181.09 so an increase of about 50% till today close.
    Spy prices are not adjusted for dividend which are otherwise $55.03 for 2009 and $168.03 for Feb2016 hence increase be 395% since 2009 and 62% since 2016 low.

    I don’t know how funds work, do they pay dividend or is this chart for maver is after fees.

    Now why would one invest in a fund when spy can fully outperform it. Is there any other advantage which I might not know of. Only thing I can think off is that it might not drop as much as spy if we have big sell off.

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula
    I don’t often look at the public list but I have seen that Green Line first anytime I’ve looked at that link. I see she uses the 250ema as important support and warns about price too far above that support area. And she also has the 50ema on as well. And for short term signal she uses a shortened Stochastics being 5,1 rather than the standard 14,3. I did notice those signals tend to line up with the RSI 8 often but being so fast it gives too many buy signals. Her stocks are Daily for the most part and 6 months with some 9 months so her short Stochastics signals are easier to see as there are so many. The standard Stochastics works just as well I think. And to maintain a stock selection of technically strong stocks they have to have a SCTR ranking of above 90 which keeps her selection of stocks very healthy. Not such a bad plan and not surprised it ranks #1. I’m sure there is more to it but that’s the basic idea I think.

  11. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks for your technical take on MAW104 and mention of RWM. I wasn’t looking to make any changes to my investments. I have a lot of low beta holdings that seem to correlate well with each other. Hence, my portfolio volatility has been smoother than the overall market of late. My questions directed to you were more for for Paul. How do you feel about HAC.TO, the other chart I posted in #3? IMO it looks like one Paul could hold for its low volatility.

    Congrats on the two birdies. I’m surprised you deviated from the cross-handed putter grip. You seemed to like it quite a bit earlier in the season. If you go to Mexico are you planning to golf there? I’m not planning to play when we head to New Orleans in Jan.

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