Tech Talk for Friday November 16th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday November 16th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 22 points in pre-opening trade.

The Shanghai Composite added 10.94 to 2,679.01 completing a short term bottoming pattern on a move above $2,676.01.

NVIDIA plunged $35.37 to $167.02 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter revenues. The company also lowered its guidance. Target on the stock was lowered by JP Morgan, Stifel Nicolaus, Oppenheimer, Susquehanna, Benchmark and SunTrust.

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Viacom (VIAB $31.83) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter revenue and earnings.

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Intel (INTC $48.11) is expected to open higher after the company approved a $15 billion share buyback program.

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Nike (NKE $74.33) is expected to open higher after the company announced a 10% dividend hike.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/11/15/stock-market-outlook-for-november-16-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Retail Trade, Retail Industry, Total Business Sales, Total Business Inventories, Philly Fed Index and Empire Manufacturing Survey.

Observations

U.S. equity indices bounced back at approximately 1:00 PM EST on a media report quoting a U.S. trade official that additional tariffs on Chinese goods are “on hold”. Look for additional follow through by the Shanghai Composite Index in overnight trading. A move by the Shanghai Composite Index above 2,676 will complete a short term base building pattern including a move above its 50 day moving average. Base metal prices/stocks and related ETFs responded strongest to the news.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdowns: $PVH $TIF $TJX $ADM $C $NTAP $TSS.

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakout included RSG and breakdowns included ADBE, HUM, STZ, LOW, MAC, LEN and BBBY.

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Canfor $CFP.CA moved below $18.27 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Fairfax Financial $FFH.CA moved below $600.02 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Palladium ETN $PALL moved above $108.79 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Wheaton Precious Metals $WPM $WPM.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $$15.18 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Teck Resources $TECK.B.CA $TECK, a TSX 60 stock moved above $21.91 U.S. and $28.69 setting an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for Teck Resources to move higher to the end of April! $TECK $TECK.B.CA

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Republic Services $RSG moved above $75.43 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for Republic Services $RSG to move higher to the end of December!

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Empire State #Manufacturing Survey at +4.4 (NSA) for November, better than the -4.3 average for this time of year. $MACRO #Economy

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Philadelphia #Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey at +3.2 (NSA) in November, above -2.1 average for this time of year. $MACRO #Economy

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US #Retail Trade up 5.1% (NSA) in October, better than the 3.0% average increase for this time of year. $MACRO #Economy $XRT $RTH

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Greg Schnell’s Comments on Gold and Gold stocks

Following is a link to Greg’s comments released yesterday

https://stockcharts.com/articles/canada/2018/11/gold-finally-had-a-day-in-the-sun.html

Greg noted that technical significance of gold moving nicely back above its 50 day moving average after forming a base pattern. Tech Talk thanked Greg for his timely comments and offered the following insight:

 

Hi Greg. Interesting charts on gold and gold stocks in your latest comment.! When I looked at the charts, they looked vaguely familiar with charts on another commodity: copper. Spot price moved above $2.75 today, moving above its 50 day moving average. Base building pattern in recent weeks is similar to gold. Seasonal influences are just turning positive. Copper stocks and related ETFs also are showing early positive technical signs. The trigger is U.S. negotiations with China. If successful, copper will soar. Cheers!

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 15th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 4.00 to 37.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 0.42 to 31.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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9 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday November 16th 2018”

  1. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Thanks for the chart yesterday. I agree that looking back a long ways puts things in better perspective, especially for the long time buy and holders. When I look at HAC on a weekly chart dating back to their inception in late 2010 I see something worth holding long term and adding to in most early to mid Octobers, at least until the bear takes hold.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HAC.TO&p=W&st=2009-11-01&id=p6729378378c

    You’re still a spring chicken to be heavy into your reno work when you don’t really have to. I admire those who have the know-how and resolve to do home improvements. I’ve always hired others to do it for me.

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Well I made my living renovating and while I did sub contract out most of the work needed I always did my own prepping, painting and finishing as that is something I’ve always been good at. And the finishing is what you see in the end so is the most important part. I’m beat up doing it now as it’s been a long time since I did it daily and I’m definately no spring chicken anymore, but I’m almost finished my part of the update and will get a flooring company to redo the floors and perhaps some other stuff as I know my limitations. Recall the Clint Eastwood movie where he said “A man’s got to know his limitations.” I know mine and focus on what I’m good at and get others to do the rest as well.
    As far as the markets go it wouldn’t surprise me to see a big rally but I think this market is very overdue for a major selloff for some time if it hasn’t started already. BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT I will get long an Index Fund or ETF that looks exceptionally bullish if I can find one that’s convincing. And find the time to research. I don’t’ have the time I used to as my partner consumes most of my time now. Relationships have a tendency to suck up your life……………..

  3. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    When you get a chance I suggest you have another look at your Questrade ETF portfolios, now called Questwealth. I heard they lowered their fees even further and are now the lowest robo-advisory service in Canada. Well, at least have another look and enter when it feels right and is in your comfort zone.

  4. Kam Says:

    Ron/BC,

    re-2,

    Think I posted before that Probability of your wish coming true next year with a crash is very high. But this is an aged bull, not going to die that fast. Da boys at control need to distribute lot more to the masses yet. Just have your popcorn ready.2200 is a target.

    Donny boy is trying too by sending all kind of tweets and interfering with Fed’s job to make market go up. First he was adding all kind of tariffs on countries and market kept going up. Now with the fall in market, he tweets about our talks with China etc to help market,lol.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    I didn’t hear anything about Questrade changing anything. Last time I spoke to them I asked them why they didn’t pay 1.68% on U.S.$ siting in the account like Interactive Brokers does. No answer of course. Very tight range to switch currencies anymore and with the roughly 2% commissions both ways it’s not viable. Might consider FXC or for a more exact opposite of the U.S.$ FXE. That U.S.$ just might have topped out for now. Not sure what I’ll do about that. Perhaps nothing and consider it a long term investment. With Oil plunging in Canada and Oil companies throwing in the towel I don’t see the CD$ doing well ahead even with a slipping U.S.$. Notice the $TSX is right back to where it was 10 years ago.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TSX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p3157222758c&a=630805891

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Kam
    Well I’ll just keep watching the $SPX chart……AND the RWH chart as well! Seeing is believing.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RWM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0813206379c&a=630860036

  7. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-questrade-to-cut-fees-on-robo-advisory-service/

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Bernie
    Thanks for the link. I noticed at the end of the article the comment on paying attention to ‘total return’ not just fees. Good point.

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Just noticed this chart of the Commodity ETF:DBC. Price has pulled back to its 3 year uptrendline which is also the major breakout point support. It’s make it or break it time right here!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DBC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9407892195c&a=579408643

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