Tech Talk for Wednesday November 28th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday November 28th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 13 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are waiting for a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to be released at the Economy Club of New York at noon.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of U.S. third quarter real GDP at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for second estimate of third quarter real GDP was annualized growth at 3.5% versus the initial report at 3.5% . Actual was 3.5%.

Salesforce gained $10.65 to $138.19 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter earnings. The company also raised guidance. Wedbush raised its target price to $166 from $160.

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Dick’s Sporting Goods added $1.17 to $37.50 after the company reported higher than consensus third quarter earnings. The company also raised guidance.

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JM Smucker dropped $6.68 to $102.50 after the company reported lower than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings. The company also lowered its guidance.

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Tiffany plunged $10.94 to $94.07 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter sales and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/11/27/stock-market-outlook-for-november-28-2018/

Note seasonality charts on the Case/Shiller 20 City Price Index and Palladium

Observation

Technicals for the Nikkei are improving.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Open Text $OTEX $OTEX.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $34.11 and $44.78 Cdn. completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for Open Text to move higher to the end of February! $OTEX $OTEX.CA

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Brookfield Asset Management $BAM $BAM.A.CA moved above $58.67 Cdn. to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for Brookfield Asset Management $BAM $BAM.A.CA to move higher to at least yearend!

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:30: Quiet. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdown: $HRS.

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Editor’s Note: After 10:30 AM EST, breakouts included ADSK, HOLX and ALK. Breakdown: LLL.

Breakouts by $GIB and $OTEX has boosted Cdn. Technology ETF $XIT.CA above its 20 and 50 day MA.

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‘Tis the season for Cdn. Technology ETF $XIT.CA to move higher to the end of January!

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Solar ETF $TAN moved above $21.06 completing a bottoming pattern.

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TMX Group $X.CA moved below $74.87 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Trader’s Corner

Short term momentum indicators (Stochastics, RSI, MACD) turned up for a variety of equity markets yesterday.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 27th 2018 clip_image015[1]

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 27th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 27th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

November 29th is the day to “Light Up Wellspring”

Paying it Forward

If you are enjoying the valued daily free investment services offered by Tech Talk and would like an opportunity to “Pay it Forward”; here is your chance for donating to a worthy charity — Tech Talk’s favourite – Wellspring. It is a Canadian leader in the provision of supportive care to cancer patients and their caregivers.  All the programs and resources are provided at no charge to the members.  

Jan and Don Vialoux are actively involved in the organization. Don is a cancer survivor.

Wellspring’s biggest charity event each year is its “Light Up Wellspring” event where individuals and companies make donations in order to “buy lights” that light up facilities for the Christmas season. You can sponsor a bulb, strand of lights, guiding star, wreath or tree. Your donation will be recognized throughout the center on paper bulbs, guiding stars, wreaths or trees. Wellspring is a registered charity. Tax receipts are issued for value received.

On November 29th 2018, Wellspring welcomes the community, families and friends to light up their local Wellspring Centre with a holiday open house including festive refreshments, a bake sale and silent auction. Last year, the event raised over $55,000.

 

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Background on the event

A link to Wellspring’s services and how to donate are offered below

Give $5 and light up a bulb
(minimum of $10 donation online)

Give $25 and light up a strand of bulbs

Give $150 and light up a guiding star

Give $250 and light up a wreath or Hanukkah menorah

Give $1000 and light up a holiday tree

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 1.68 to 37.88 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and moving higher.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 5.37 to 27.27 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

 

 

 

 

 

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 21st 2018

 

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

 

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

 

 

 

Paying it Forward

If you are enjoying the valued daily free investment services offered by Tech Talk and would like an opportunity to “Pay it Forward”; here is your chance for donating to a worthy charity — Tech Talk’s favourite – Wellspring. It is a Canadian leader in the provision of supportive care to cancer patients and their caregivers.  All the programs and resources are provided at no charge to the members.  

Jan and Don Vialoux are actively involved in the organization. Don is a cancer survivor.

Wellspring’s biggest charity event each year is its “Light Up Wellspring” event where individuals and companies make donations in order to “buy lights” that light up facilities for the Christmas season. You can sponsor a bulb, strand of lights, guiding star, wreath or tree. Your donation will be recognized throughout the center on paper bulbs, guiding stars, wreaths or trees. Wellspring is a registered charity. Tax receipts are issued for value received.

On November 29th 2018, Wellspring welcomes the community, families and friends to light up their local Wellspring Centre with a holiday open house including festive refreshments, a bake sale and silent auction. Last year, the event raised over $55,000.

 

clip_image019

 

Background on the event

A link to Wellspring’s services and how to donate are offered below

Give $5 and light up a bulb
(minimum of $10 donation online)

Give $25 and light up a strand of bulbs

Give $150 and light up a guiding star

Give $250 and light up a wreath or Hanukkah menorah

Give $1000 and light up a holiday tree

clip_image020

Event Details:
Thursday, November 29th 2018
5:00pm – 8:30pm, Official Lighting Ceremony at 6:30pm.
Wellspring Birmingham Gilgan House, 2545 Sixth Line, Oakville, ON L6H 7V9

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



31 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday November 28th 2018”

  1. Bobj Says:

    Bernie
    re: #8 this Tuesday,
    thanks’ for the reply on Co Power green Bonds.
    After checking there Website I agree with you.
    Do you have any comments on Preferred Shares.
    Some Rate Reset have sold off over 10% this Month?

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of a group of preferred shares. Note it only took one year to go from the high point in late 2014 to the bottom low point in late 2015/early 2016. Recent price action is not encouraging.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ZPR.TO&compare=CPD.TO,HFP.TO,HPR.TO,PPS.TO,XPF.TO&a=579408380&listNum=1&id=p77121705198

  3. Ana Says:

    How could this happen?

    Did anyone see this?

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/hedge-fund-manager-s-apology-video-goes-viral~1545801

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    This shouldnt surprise anyone. I wouldn’t trust anyone of them with my money. Especially those that offer high returns.
    Promises,promises……

  5. BrianK Says:

    Re # 3 Ana, I had heard about this on the weekend but couldn’t find details. Thanks for posting. See additional link and whole video.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-18/optionsellerscom-goes-dark-after-catastrophic-loss-event-natgas-short-squeeze

  6. Paula Says:

    Ana, re #9 yesterday. Thanks for noticing. I think you were the only one

    Re the subject of the optionseller.com fund. This is eerily familiar of Bernie Madoff but more honest. Still stupid. Selling naked calls – such an arrogant thing to do. Options sellers think they are so smart. I should know. I used to be one. Although, I never shorted naked calls, only puts. BUT I have sworn off the whole strategy. Often it is like “picking up pennies in front of a steam roller” – oh, wait, we don’t have pennies any more…LOL

  7. Bernie Says:

    Bobj,

    Re: #1
    I’ve never owned preferreds. They’re almost as price volatile as common stock and don’t raise their dividends. Not the same but why not something like “BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF”(ZWB). Canadian banks never cut their dividends and you get a small boost with the covered call overlay. Perhaps layer in while the price drops for a long term hold.

  8. Bobj Says:

    Re: # 2 and 7

    Ron BC and Bernie,
    Thank you Ron for the chart, to the point as usual
    and to Bernie, I will look at (ZWB).

  9. Wayne Smith Says:

    Re # 3,

    Tastytrade did a report on this a few days ago.

    Did anybody notice the Rolex on his left wrist?

    The trade for some time had been long Crude – short Natgas. The spike in natty was due in part to shorts covering their massive positions when natty spiked on severe cold weather and low inventory.

    This turkey was short a massive number of contracts. Size kills!

  10. Ana Says:

    Paula,

    I read your post and appreciated it!

    Love your sense of humour about no more pennies!

    I just feel so sorry for all of those people who lost their money, not even realizing what risks their broker was taking.

  11. Ana Says:

    #9. Wayne Smith,

    Thank you, found the report on this.

    So they just kept adding positions?

    No diversification for all of the clients?

  12. Larry/ON Says:

    $CAD getting hit mightily. Testing major support around 74.81. Too many negatives including WCS oil and the Fed being ahead of the BOC on interest rate hikes. We could easily go back down to the 2017 low at 72.50.

  13. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ana,
    Just noticed your post.
    This turkey sold a massive amount of naked puts and shorted futures in natty. He amazingly ignored his risk exposure. Risk kills, as it certainly nailed him.

    His request for funding from his clients to help bail him out (it was rumoured that his clearing firm went belly up) is absolutely insane!

    He should pawn his rolex. It would certainly cover the cost of taking the Series Seven Licence. That would be a start.

  14. Wayne Smith Says:

    Ron/BC,
    Do you still hold USD?? I’ve got a whack of them. My partner and I are heading to Santa Fe NM on a three month house sit in Jan. So, I have been loading up.

    I’m all cash at the moment. Working on an ETF model (USD) to build after this hiatus subsides.

  15. Polish1 Says:

    Sales of new U.S. homes plummeted 8.9 percent in October; number of unsold, newly-built homes highest since 2009

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=2&id=p75393291765&a=231521303&listNum=61

  16. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Re: #5 from last night

    I’ve never paid much attention to forex fluctuations, I prefer to stick with $CAD in my accounts. I haven’t used the comparison feature in Stockcharts Seasonality Charts, only for single securities. Not sure why they use a 5 year period as the default. Seasonality is usually considered a long term view, ie; 20 years if possible. That’s why I move the slider over to the max setting.

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Wayne

    All my RIF money is in U.S.$. I occasionally switch back to CD$ if the charts suggests that but with the small fluctuations for some time now and high cost of switching I don’t often switch. And U.S.$ is the world’s reserve currency and the U.S.stock markets are where the action is with huge volumes on most everything and a world of investors trading them. The $TSX and the CD$ are both not worth the trouble to bother with comparatively. And when in U.S.$ my account also shows the value in CD$ as well and my account has gone up thousands of CD$ dollars over the last few months. I am concerned about a potential short term top in this time frame so am watching it closely. But what to put U.S.$ in right now is also questionable. But even holding it you don’t have to worry about it plunging like stocks do all that much and I prefer to hold U.S.$ more than anything else. The Euro which is the only currency to trade inverse all the time doesn’t seem to have its act together and it would have to rally strongly to affect the U.S.$. That Euro chart is very bearish as well.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p7235801593c&a=579408533

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&st=1990-10-17&id=p41901994713&a=579408383

    Here is the #CDW

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21003891430&a=579408456

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    I see this site is showing posts from Nov 22, 23 and 25th mixed in with today’s posts. Electronics,you just never know what it’s going to do.
    Just found that out with my partner’s TV and ended up buying a new 4K,Smart TV but still need Shaw to come out and replace the electronic box that stopped working. Life was simple back in the day when you just had to adjust the rabbit ears and watch the same TV for decades,lol. Even the old cable vision was very basic and was either on or off.

  19. Larry/ON Says:

    Jerome Powell really tipped sentiment bullish by saying rates are just below neutral. That also brought CAD back from the brink. Makes you think though about how much risk is out there if the Fed Chair needs to come out and make a statement to prop up markets and placate Trump. CM and ZEB are looking interesting.

  20. Ron/BC Says:

    RY and TD on the NYSE are bouncing back from significant price support. RY tested $72 support but does need to clear $74 to complete a bullish “W” pattern and run to $77. It reports earnings today. And TD on the NYSE also tested major price support at $54 and bounced and is clearing its downtrendline and also oversold. It reports earnings Thursday the 29th. Important tests of support etc. There does tend to be a Christmas rally the 1st two weeks of December so we shall soon see if this occurs this time around. There is also a lot of tax loss selling well into December along with repositioning etc. So from now through January there will likely be a lot of chaos and surprises. Not an easy time of the year to be in the market.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9217109735c&a=579408463

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p5783322252c&a=579408582

  21. Polish1 Says:

    Market surged higher on Powell’s softening comments from Powell
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/stock-market-wall-street-looks-to-fed-chair-speech-and-trade-news.html

  22. Polish1 Says:

    AAPL nice pop above Monday’s candle
    https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p5030376703c&listNum=3&a=312501679

  23. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 20 – ZEB.TO has made a neck-line break as has CM. It’s the top of the Bollinger Band that the banks are up against.

  24. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Middle of the bollinger band is 2719.50, so all indicators are at a critical point right now.

    If we come down to that area, we might be changing direction, for all of the day/swing traders.

  25. KC Says:

    Hi Ron/Bc,

    Thanks for your detailed comments on banks on Monday , much appreciated!

    Also, wasnt aware of EQ and Equitable bank. Looking into those, although I detest internet banking or banking through any apps. I had a long chat with one of the reps today.

    Wondering if you would be kind enough to comments on BCE.TO seasonality. I see it usually takes a dip at the end of Nov, not this time. Do you suspect its because its running counter active to the general market – safe holding ? Do you suspect it will take a dip in december ? Seems overbought and wondering if I should take money off the table for now. However, Equityclock suggested by date is Dec 6th.

    Thanks,
    KC

  26. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Not at a computer now. I’ll post a chart & comments later on the banks.

  27. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The banks are reporting this week and testing significant price support and bounced well today. Longer term charts show the almost 3 year uptrendline from early 2016 broke down on all of them and are just bouncing off near term support that was formed in that 3 year period. Buying there was a good odds trade but overall if you want to buy and hold for the long term the price chart is not technically at such a good buy.The break of the 3 year uptrendline looks like it has more work to do. And buying just before earnings is a roll of the dice on any stock. The CD banks have a good track record but with the narrow spread in interest rates I don’t think you’d find an advisor that would recommend them with such a tight spread between the 2’s and 10’s rates. In the long term I’m sure they will all do as well as any other stock but all I see here is a trade from point A to point B. What is important now is after this bounce back is to see follow through after the earnings announcements or a breakdown. This entire period into the end of January is a volatile whipsawing time in the markets. Also even the Royal Bank will pay 3% for 6 months with your cash.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=1988-10-06&id=p3321763392c&a=579408640

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p6254806728c&a=633314052

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    BCE.to broke out over $55 and that price action does project a rally to $58 to a double top at $59.66. BUTTTTTT price is also very overbought short term. With markets bouncing off oversold levels it could make it to $58 but I know I would put on a trailing stop to let the market take me out on a pullback. You don’t have to decide………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92422358361&a=579408570

  29. kam Says:

    Hi Folks,

    re- spx,

    EW is in btfd mode. Buy zone in 2 trances on retrace is between 2705-2665. And can run all the way to 2900+ Sell one at 2800-25 area and hold rest to run 2900.
    Later

  30. Ron/BC Says:

    The VEU All World ETF (less the U.S.) has pulled back and tested the breakout point at $47 which was the 2007 high. This served as price resistance in 2014 and again in 2015 and was finally cleared in 2017. This pullback is major price support and needs to hold. So far it has…………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VEU&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00920880138&a=579408321

  31. Ana Says:

    What in the world is going on here?

    I typed my post earlier today without reading the comments and then had to leave at 12:30 pm.

    I see Kam in full bull mode, but I disagree. Not bullish, because of the political climate on the verge of proving collusion and espionage in the Whitehouse. Also a huge to do about Trump placing tariffs on all Chinese imports to the USA.

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