Tech Talk for Thursday November 29th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 29th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 6 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 220,000 versus 224,000 last week. Actual was 234,000/ Consensus for October Personal Income was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in September. Actual was an increase of 0.5%. Consensus for October Personal Spending was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.4% in September. Actual was an increase of 0.6%.

Walt Disney (DIS $116.10) is expected to open higher after increasing its dividend by 5%.

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Dollar Tree dropped $2.33 to $80.99 after reporting lower than consensus third quarter sales. The company also lowered guidance.

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Abercrombie & Fitch gained $2.98 to $20.10 after reporting higher than consensus third quarter sales and earnings.

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La Z Boy (LZB $29.16) is expected to open higher after reporting higher third quarter sales and earnings. The company also raised its dividend.

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Toronto Dominion Bank (TD $73.60) reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings slightly higher than consensus and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM $116.19) reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings slightly lower than consensus.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/11/28/stock-market-outlook-for-november-29-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply, Gasoline Days of Supply, U.S. Imports and U.S. Exports.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $67.73 and $67.64 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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‘Tis the season for Alimentation Couche-Tard $ATD.B.CA to move higher until at least year end!

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Restaurant Brands Int’l $QSR.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $75.23 Cdn. completing a double bottom pattern.

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Constellation Brands, $CSU.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $923.88 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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Royal Bank $RY.CA moved above $96.89 on Q4 results completing a double bottom pattern.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout: $DHR. Breakdown: $GIS.

S&P 500 stock breakouts from 10:00 AM to1:00 PM: $FRT $PFE $DFS $UNM $AVY $ESRX $WYNN $MCO $ANTM $ETN $EXPD $ALLE $MSI $EW

S&P 500 breakouts from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM: DE, MLM, WFC, AMP, CPRT, AFL BLK, MTD, EFX, RMD

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‘Tis the season for Danaher $DHR to move higher to year end!

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Early technical signs of relative outperformance by Emerging Markets $EEM have appeared. Nice moves above 20 and 50 day MAs!

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‘Tis the season for real and relative strength in Emerging Markets $EEM to at least year end.

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Editor’s Note: Frontier iShares have a similar technical pattern. Nice move briefly above its 50 day moving average yesterday!

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Continuing real and relative strength in individual emerging/frontier indices is helping. Nice breakout by the Turkey iShares yesterday to extend an intermediate uptrend!

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American Express $AXP, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $111.37 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Commerce Bank $CM.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $115.73 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Linamar $LNR.CA joined $MRE.CA by breaking to new lows following $GM shutdown news.

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Vietnam ETF $VNM moved above $15.82 completing a base building pattern. Emerging markets are moving!

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Transportation iShares $IYT moved above $193.09 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern. Ditto for Dow Jones Transportation Average! $TRAN

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‘Tis the season for strength in the Dow Jones Transportation Average until at least the end of the year! $IYT $TRAN

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China Large Cap iShares $FXI moved above $42.03 completing a base building pattern.

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‘Tis the season for strength in Chinese equities to at least mid-January! $FXI $SSEC

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Bank of Nova Scotia, a TSX 60 stock moved above $71.35 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Equal weight Canadian Bank ETF $ZEB.CA moved above $28.33 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Canadian Information Technology iShares $XIT.CA moved above $18.76 completing a double bottom pattern.

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AltaGas $ALA.CA moved below $14.09 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Cdn. Financials iShares $XFN.CA moved above $36.51 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Homebuilders SPDRs $XHB moved above $$35.60 completing a bottoming pattern.

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Bank of Montreal $BMO.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $99.86 completing a double bottom pattern.

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US New Home Sales down 6.7% in October, negatively diverging from the 1.9% increase that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Housing

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Trader’s Corner

Editor’s Note: Many equity indices and sectors moved above their 20 day moving average yesterday, an encouraging technical sign.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for November 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for November 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for November 28th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

Keith says, “It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine”. Following is the link:

https://www.valuetrend.ca/its-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-and-i-feel-fine/

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer jumped 13.72 to 51.60 yesterday. It changed from Intermediate Oversold to Intermediate Neutral and is trending higher.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer advanced 7.85 to 35.12 yesterday. It remains Intermediate Oversold, but is trending higher.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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16 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday November 29th 2018”

  1. FishFat Says:

    TechTalk mentioned Alimentation Couche-Tarde today. The weekly chart looks encouraging with a breakout above a three year trading range. Several indicators also look bullish, including an SCTR rating of above 75, RSI(21) above the 50-level, and the ADX turning up with DI+ dominant. The things that gives me pause are the flat OBV and Accum/Dist lines, I would prefer they were both rising. I don’t have a position, but may take one if the price pulls back to the B/O price and looks to be holding above the breakout at the close of the weekly trade.

    Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
    http://schrts.co/yC69eh

  2. Polish1 Says:

    GUSH is not crude oil, it’s oil and gas exploration stocks, follows the XOP ETF.
    https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/#prettyPhoto%5B297479%5D/0/

  3. KC Says:

    Morning Ron/BC,

    Hope you’re having better weather than the rest of us out east. Simply wanted to thank you this morning for your gracious time and comments once again yesterday on the banks and BCE. You’re a stellar fella-rrr and I hope your new lady friend realizes that too 😉

    Cheers,
    KC

  4. KC Says:

    Hello,

    Could someone please clarify how things work with dividend payout/record dates ?

    If I hold the stock, till what date do I have to hold it in order to make sure I get paid the dividend ?

    Company website
    Declaration: October 31, 2018
    Record date: December 14, 2018
    Payment : January 15, 2019

    Oddly enough , TDW shows :
    Event: Nov/01/18
    Ex-date : Dec/13/18
    Payment : Jan/15/19

    Thanks,
    KC

  5. Polish1 Says:

    Market Gyrating Around on Headline Trade News
    US, China Are Exploring A Deal To De-Escalate Trade Tensions, Talks Focused On Delayed Tariffs

  6. Polish1 Says:

    KC#4
    Record date is the date that you have to officially own the shares in order to receive the dividend,but be careful,if you buy the stock on record date,you will be too late because it takes two business days for a trade to settle.
    So ,to be entitled to the next dividend,you will have to buy your shares at least two business days before the record date.

  7. KC Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Noticed your comments on USD possible hitting a top. I hold about 1/3 of my funds in USD, mostly cash/GIC. You wondered what you would convert it to. How about converting it to CDW and throw it into a GIC, perhaps even the EQ bank GIC ? Do you see that as a good short term option till the dust settles, although thats unlikely with that family in the white house!

    KC

  8. KC Says:

    Polish1,

    Thanks for the response. I have owned the shares for over a year. Looking to sell them, but not before I get paid for dividend. I guess I will be holding till Dec 14th at least.

    Question is, which EX or RECORD date do you go by ?

    Cheers,
    KC

  9. Polish1 Says:

    KC,
    December 12 to get the dividend.
    If you buy a stock 1 day before x-dividend date you will get the dividend.

  10. Polish1 Says:

    WEYL all the way back to long term support
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WEYL&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=5&id=p96606315479&a=605817558&listNum=59

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Well the weather in Victoria has been good and even golfable at times. But it does get rainy often even though we are in what’s known as a rain shadow created by mountains that see the rain fall before it gets here. So we get about 60% of the rain Vancouver gets. But we still have “clear gray skies” as I often describe it here a lot which bothers some people. I don’t’ really care that much but sunny California is more desirable in the Dec-Feb period.
    Don’t know why I’m concerned about the U.S.$ value as the charts are bullish. Just paranoia I suppose. But unless you see inflation and commodities rally strongly with Oil rebounding you wont see the CD$ do well as it is known as a commodity currency world wide. I could buy FXE if the chart ever turns around. It is very bearish to date. Or perhaps it’s time to watch Gold more closely. Meanwhile I’ll just hang onto my U.S.$ as it has always served me well without lifting a finger. I have CD$ in my TFSA as well as my major cash account at Tangerine so don’t need more CD$. And my lady partner does claim to appreciate me,so she says despite our differences. But one must remember Men are from Venus and Women are from Mars. It’s all an illusion.
    RY on the NYSE is still trying to clear $74 while RY.to on the $TSX has cleared that same W pattern. Never could figure out how to quantify the difference when assessing chart patterns………..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5344727108c&a=579408463

  12. Paula Says:

    Ron/BC re your post #30 from yesterday:
    As Don notes above, EEM as started to outperform $SPX. I have been tracking it relative to VEU, so I was interested in your post/chart on VEU. It may be time for a trade in beaten down EEM, which is also outperforming VEU lately. I took the liberty of adding it to your chart, but it does not show up well:

    http://schrts.co/vbo1dH

  13. Bernie Says:

    KC,

    Re: #4 & 8
    “As long as you purchase a stock prior to the ex-dividend date, you can then sell the stock any time on or after the ex-dividend date and still receive the dividend. A common misconception is that investors need to hold the stock through the record date or pay date.”

    Just be careful if you do sell on the ex-div date because the price is reduced by the cost of the dividend at the start the day. Actually, I often find this a good time to buy because of the dip.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula

    Here are a couple of EEM charts. The 2 year chart shows price still within its downtrendline. But now you see a higher low on the most recent pullback and a rally back to the early November high around $41.75 which forms a ‘potentially bullish’ “W” pattern. The RSI 21 which has been below the 50 line resistance all year is now trying to poke its nose above 50 and the EEM relative to the SPY has been outperforming SPY since early October. Plus the Long Modified MACD is trying to cross it’s 20ema signal line. The Histogram shows it has a little already.And the RSI 8 is showing a strong positive divergence on the last low suggesting a stronger market. So the bottom line is price needs to clear the top of the W pattern at roughly $41.75 which would clear the downtendline and would also see the other bullish signals at that point. A crossover in price would project a rally to next resistance at $45. But price still hasn’t cleared resistance and needs to in order to confirm a change in trend back to up. I put in your ADX for your sake but I don’t care for the indicator as it is ass backwards but is also well known and used by many. Note the long term multi year chart showing the breakdown of the breakout point at $43-$44 suggesting more downside overall like most other charts today.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EEM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7568173746c&a=633504805

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EEM&p=D&yr=15&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68527619882&a=579408378

  15. Ron/BC Says:

    CM on the NYSE sold off today on a small earnings miss. In the end price still held above major support at $84. So no damage done………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CM&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5569237875c&a=593535808

  16. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Watching this resistance line closely:

    https://invst.ly/9dk59

    “Tech Talk
    Duplicate comment detected; it looks as though you’ve already said that!”
    No, I have not posted this chart before.

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