Tech Talk for Thursday December 20th 2018

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday December 20th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were up unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Initial Jobless Claims was an increase to 225,000 from 204,000 last week. Actual was an increase to 214,000. Consensus for December Philly Fed Index was 12.0 versus 12.9 in November. Actual was 9.4.

Blackberry added $0.45 to $7.80 U.S. after reporting higher than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings.

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Tilroy (TLRY $) is expected to open higher after reaching partnership agreement with Anheuser Busch to research cannabis base beverages.

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Canagra dropped $1.46 to $27.63 after lowering guidance for its fiscal third quarter..

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Apple (AAPL $) is expected to open lower after Needham lowered its target price to $200 from $260.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2018/12/19/stock-market-outlook-for-december-20-2018/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil days of Supply, Gasoline days of Supply, Existing Home Sales and Canadian Consumer Price Index.

Observations

Wild market action before and after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s comments!

S&P 500 Index moved higher prior to comments and dropped shortly after

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TSX Composite Index followed a similar, but slightly less volatile pattern

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Developed world equities and related ETFs followed a similar pattern.

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Precious metal prices tracked equity markets.

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The VIX Index moved in the opposite direction.

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The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN tracked the VIX Index

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Yield on long term Treasuries initially moved higher, but dropped in late trading.

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The S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Index broke below lows set in February/March. The TSX Composite Index dropped to a 27 month low.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

American Express $AXP, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $100.04 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bearish. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdowns: $KMX $AXP $KIM

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20 S&P 500 stocks broke intermediate support following Federal Reserve Chairman’s comments.

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Editor’s Note: Breakdowns included HLT, LB, NKE, MKC, SYY, VAR, VRTX, HOLX, ACN, APH, APH, CSCO, JNPR, LRCX, STX, V and AES.

Materials SPDRs $XLB moved below $$50.09 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Semiconductor ETF $SMH moved below $86.95 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Royal Bank $RY.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved below $93.13 extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Brookfield Asset Management $BAM, a TSX 60 stock moved below $39.44 U.S. extending an intermediate downtrend.

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Editor’s Note: Other TSX 60 stocks that broke intermediate support included First Quantum Minerals and Cameco.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 19th 2018

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

The Astrologers Fund 2019 Forecasts

for the Stock Market, Trump, Gold and Crypto

by Henry Weingarten

Register here to attend our 11.55am December 21 Shindig webinar:

https://shindig.com/login/event/astrologer2019

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 2.80 to 12.20 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 7.12 to 22.63 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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21 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday December 20th 2018”

  1. Wayne Smith Says:

    Bernie,
    Are you familiar with Closed End Funds? I have been trading them in my US account for some time now. Very profitable.

    I called Questrade this morning to see if I could trade them in my account. No luck. Apparently they are not allowed to be traded by Canadians. Weird. I am going to contact TD to see if that’s their policy.

    The year end tax reporting is getting to be onerous – so thought that I could trade them in Canada.

  2. DougP Says:

    Wayne: I have been looking at them lately, but never owned one. Daily Traders identified DNI and GRF as good US choices. Can that really be true, that Canadians are not allowed to buy them? I believe TD has one (BIG), BMO two, (HTO, PRF) and Scotia two, (MLD, NEW). MNT, MNS, TD’s TDB162, and PHN9071 and all came up in my cursory review. I could be mistaken, so please check them for yourself.

  3. bruce Says:

    Sherri
    thanks for your late night Armstrong update……….12.40am?

  4. Wayne Smith Says:

    testing…..

  5. Wayne Smith Says:

    DougP,
    I just wrote a long and detailed response to your query. I posted it and.. nothing

    I called a trader at TD – no problem. I gave him a couple of symbols from my portfolio and he was able to trade them.
    I called QT back and had them transfer me to a trader – he was also able to access them – and yes, I can trade CEF’s.
    The “professional” that I first spoke to was totally out to lunch, even though I told her that these were NOT US mutual funds.

    Coincidentally, I came across DNI yesterday. Low yield (minimum for me is 5%), and not a monthly payer. Equity funds are in trouble right now – so, I decided to pass.

    If you want to dig further into CEF’s – go to “CEF Connect”.It’s the goto analysis site. Also, follow “Stanford Chemist” on Seeking Alpha. He is THE authority on CEF’s.

    I use a discount capture strategy.It has worked well over the past few years.

    Best!

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    BAD SANTA – What can you say? The best investment right now is USD cash or treasuries. We seem to have decisively broke below the Feb low. I’m guesstimating 2200 for the SP500. When panic sets in nothing will be spared. On a substantial drop I’m thinking some div payers will be on sale at a good price. I had a look at insider trading reports on some names and it has been virtually all selling for the last month and more.

  7. Bernie Says:

    Wayne Smith,

    Re: #1 CEFs
    I’m not entirely sure what you mean by “trading” them but am familiar with CEFs. I own 2 U.S. based (PDI & BME) and one Cdn (PGI.UN) in my RRIF. I’m happy with them and have had no issues or concerns with buying or selling them.

  8. Bernie Says:

    Further to #7, my accounts are with BMO InvestorLine.

  9. Ana Says:

    #6. Larry/ON

    “Larry/ON Says:
    November 30th, 2017 at 12:18 pm
    The Hardest Thing To Do In A Bull Market Is To Stick With Your Winners (David Burrows) – If you try to time this market you will bemore likely end up buy back at higher prices. There is no follow through today on yesterday’s drop in tech stocks. If you sold tech yesterday you are now faced with a rebound and a distinct possibility that it is not going lower. If the overall market is bullish I don’t see a collapse in tech but rather comparative underperformance for a period of time.”

    So, I gather that you have a more realistic view on the advice of David Burrows?

  10. Wayne Smith Says:

    Bernie,
    Thanx!
    I swing trade my positions using an ATR stop. I know that you are a long term investor and are satisfied as long as the div is safe.
    I have been watching to get back in. There will be some exceptional opps at some point in the new year.

  11. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 9 – Technicals are technicals and there is never any absolute certainty. As for Nov 30/17 that is quite some time ago. Are you keeping some kind of Larry/ON file? Burrows has a thesis of a secular bull market (which is now under challenge) but you won’t know if he is right until a long time from now. The whole change in the market is man-made by the guy who calls himself “Tariff Man” who has been in partnership with CyberMan in Moscow and is now being hit over the head by FedMan.

  12. Ana Says:

    $SPX

    Bouncing off support at the bottom of the channel:

    https://invst.ly/9k-va

  13. Ana Says:

    #11. Larry/ON

    Sorry Larry, I should not have posted that link.

    I am day trading and my etf moves like crazy, so I was looking for the support to cash out of my bear position for the moment. I have two computers, with many tabs open. Although that is not a good excuse for posting a 2017 post of yours, it is the reason why I did.

    My post also sounded very arrogant, as my posts often do, but it is just a lack of time, due to day trading. So sorry, once again.

    When I googled “Timing the Market, Larry/ON, Dave Burrows” I got that and just wanted to post all of the bullish things Dave Burrows was saying and that you were posting. I do not think that he is a good follow for the market. I did not agree with all of the “this is a bull market” comments that were being posted.

    No, I am not keeping a file on you. 😀 I did not agree with your posts on a bull market so I definitely do not keep track of your posts when I can just use google to find them.

  14. Larry/ON Says:

    Tariff Man now wants to shut down the US Government for Christmas unless he can get money to build his wall! More Bad Santa. The drops have been somewhat orderly and we haven’t seen one of those blow-off drops yet. I don’t profess any great expertise here. I should be careful about saying the support break is “decisive” it could be a false break until we get confirmation over what – I guess at least three trading days.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/ryan-says-trump-will-not-sign-senate-passed-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown.html

  15. FishFat Says:

    Tomorrow is a Triple Witching day when contracts for index futures, index options, and stock options expire on the same day. There is normally increased volatility in the markets, especially the last hour of the day.

  16. Mary Says:

    Dow update

     December 20, 2018

    Merry X-mas everyone!

    dow dec 20 2018

    The Dow is behaving as expected. Except wave 3 so far has already travelled 3000 points (from 26000, top of wave c of 2) and we have not reached the mid point it seems so the 5000 points estimate may be too low. In our modest opinion 16000 for this whole wave, Wave A or 1, is achievable so don’t buy the bottom yet!

    Ana: May I ask what is your target for S&P. Thanks.

  17. Larry/ON Says:

    Ana – You are right. You can’t follow any of these guys too closely like a guru follower. With Burrows he takes historical trends going back 80 years and then makes the case for what is going to happen now and he is convincing in the way he presents his bullish case. He has been very silent on Twitter for the past three weeks. On the flip side bears like David Rosenberg will finally be proven right after being proven wrong for some time as the market continued higher. Unless Tariff Man comes up with a deal with China in some kind of miracle very soon I think we need some kind of major capitulation in the market to form any kind of bottom.

  18. Larry/ON Says:

    Fibonnaci Retracement – From 2016 low of 1810.10 to 2018 high of 2940.91 it works out to 2376 on SP500 for a 50% retracement which is only 91 points or 3.8% lower, 2242 would be a 61.8% retracement which would be a 9.1% drop from here. That’s it for me.

  19. Mary Says:

    Bruce: FWIW – Sherri gets a better report.

    The Federal Reserve raising the 25bp was pretty much expected throughout, with a few possible outlier exceptions. However, it was not really the hike that spooked markets, but that they had built-in so much belief that the no change in hiking rhetoric they was expecting. This is probably why markets are reacting so violently, as most believe their own hype that the FED was one and one. The Nikkei was dragged lower by banks, financials and pharmaceuticals, in a day where bids were chased lower with no signs of a bounce all day. The Yen also saw some flight to quality, but given we saw a 3% decline in the Nikkei the Yen bid was only a minor at just 0.8%. In late trading the safe-haven bid is finding its feet and sees the possibilities of a 110 handle print. The Shanghai index was also off -0.5%, whilst Hang Seng suffered a little more with a 1% decline. The supporting action by the Chinese central bank has helped confidence within the market, but the global slowdown is dragging on all geographies and all sectors. One market that suffered less than others today was the SENSEX (-0.1%) and that was probably saved only by the declining price of oil.

    The negativity rolled from Asia into European markets, with all opening on the weak side. Todays losses are taking core indices deeper into double digit losses for the year, with the DAX’s -18% leading the declines for the year. The UK FTSE did well in comparison, but even it fell 1%. GBP has balanced some of that decline, but could not make-up for it all. Mark Carney again hosted the Bank of England rate decision press conference and again warned of BREXIT uncertainties. Leaving rates unchanged, he then proceeded to reduce projected growth forecasts from ).3% down to +0.2%, expressing continued uncertainties. FTSE is still down around 13% this year whilst Sterling has lost over 6% YTD. However, its worth mentioning that the Euro itself has also lost over 4% against the USD this year.

    Interesting that as the selling progresses we are starting to see more of a pick-up in the VIX. Last seen trading with a 28 handle could be construed that hedging has started as positions are gradually built. The FED’s 2019 outlook was not what the market had priced in and so we are seeing the result of uncertainty. Todays pressure has taken the core down to February lows to levels not seen in 15 months. The US Treasury market gave a little of yesterdays rally back and has seen the steepening return. Lets see what Fridays closing numbers produce, but many will be checking headlines for the latest US/China negotiations.
    Armstrong report Dec. 20th/2018

  20. bruce Says:

    tnx Mary……..

  21. rocketdave Says:

    Hey I think i see Santa

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