Tech Talk for Wednesday January 2nd 2019

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HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday January 2nd

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 42 points in pre-opening trade.

Netflix dropped $5.69 to $267.66 after Sun Trust lowered its target price to $3.55 to $410.

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Aflac (AFL $) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

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Amazon dropped $32.72 to $1469.25 after Evercore lowered its target price to $1800 from $1990.

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Bausch Health (BHC $25.25 Cdn.) is expected to open higher after Piper Jaffray upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral.

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Don Vialoux on Berman’s Call

Following are links:

 

Outlook for early 2019

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/oversold-levels-show-us-where-we-are-going-in-2019-vialoux~1575580

 

Calls questions from viewers

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/don-vialoux-takes-your-calls~1575582

 

Education Section: Seasonality in a U.S. Presidential Midterm Election Year

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-effects-of-seasonality-on-a-pre-election-year~1575590

 

Observations

The Japanese Yen continues to surge. The Yen is highly correlated with the price of gold.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for December 31st 2018

spx for jan 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for December 31st 2018

crb for jan 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for December 31st 2018

xlk for jan 2

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Technical Scoop

By David Chapman from www.EnrichedInvesting.com

http://www.enrichedinvesting.com/PDF/Worst-December-Ever-Plunge-Protection-Team-Paper-Starting-to-Come-Off-Rising-Gold.pdf

 

StockTwits Released on Monday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 2:00 PM: Nil

Editor’s Note: After 2:00 PM EST, one stock broke intermediate resistance and none broke support.

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 3.80 to 11.80 on Monday. It continues to recover from a deeply intermediate oversold level.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 3.70 to 27.98 on Monday. It continues to recover from an intermediate oversold level.

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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11 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday January 2nd 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Happy New Year to you all!

  2. KC Says:

    Morning Ron/BC,

    Wondering if you might have a chance to give us an update on USD vs CDW please. I was listening to Bob McWhirter last week and he feels the $CDW still has the probability of going down another 4 to 5%. What are your thoughts ? Are you ready to convert your USD back to CDW yet ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Some strength in leading market indicators – In this treacherous market at the moment semis and financials which are both early participants in market rallies are quite strong today. Transports are turning positive. There seems to be a glimmer of hope in Cdn banks. Tax loss selling is over. You also have an interesting rally in $CAD with oil up and CAD reversing direction after nearing a long-term low at 72.50. In USD terms there is a trade to make in Cdn banks if only for the short-term.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The CD$ remains weak. The chart is still bearish and next support is the 2017 low of 72.72. If that breaks down 69-69 level would be next as it has been tested many times before as support and resistance. But like the chart suggests there will be bounces and selloffs as it is a volatile currency. Watch the upper ratio chart of $CDW:$USD 8 year downtrendline and the green horizontal line that would need to be cleared to suggest strength for a long time. The wild card here is Trump as he does not like a strong U.S.$ or rising interest rates and he seems to be calling all the shots now. But fundamentally there is a Federal election here this year and the polls whether positive or negative for the existing government along the way will also influence the CD$. And the CD$ and the price of $WTIC basically track together (but not recently) so a rebound on Crude could have an effect on the CD$ as well as commodity prices. Too many variables to bet on. I’ll just watch the charts as they know how to decipher all the data best. Right now the CD$ is bearish. Watch that downtrendline on the ratio chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&st=1975-08-30&id=p3011952493c&a=579408562

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p1234375638c&a=579408525

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the $SPX. The long term bull market uptrendline from early 2009 is presently at 2300 with the last low touching 2346. So the 2300 level will be watched and acted upon and needs to hold as support. A break below that uptrendline will be widely reported with bearish consequences. Just below 2300 is the 2100 to 2200 area which is the 2015 and 2016 highs that is major “price support”. The long term Modified MACD 50,200,1 is once again below the zero line meaning the 50ema is below the 200ema. This has only occurred 5 times since the bull market began and did mark major price lows.(see vertical dotted green lines.) BUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT that was in the bull market. “IF” this is the beginning of a bear market that M.MACD just may not be signalling a major price low nearby and may continue to trade below the zero line or straddle it weakly in a new bear market. So to confirm watch the major long term bull market uptrendline from 2009 to hold or fail and price especially needs to hold above 2100-2200 major support.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p1127992715c&a=579408698

  6. Ana Says:

    #3. Larry/ON

    Markets are still unstable.

    Banks look like they are about to roll.

    Just step back for a day or two to judge direction, if you are not day trading or swing trading.

    Waiting for the trade ls the most difficult task ln trading.

  7. Larry/ON Says:

    Re 6 – Thanks Ana. Tariff Man was on TV today saying the market is up 30% since his election. I came up with 16.7% on my quick calculation of the SP500.

  8. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Head and Shoulders on futures, down to 2470.

    #7. Larry/ON

    Hoping Tariff Man ls soon removed.

    The Apple statement regarding revenue revision: “While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China.

  9. bruce Says:

    ana
    the low to-day on the s&p was 2467……should be an interesting opening to-morrow…..

  10. Paula Says:

    Ana #6 and #8:
    “Waiting for the trade ls the most difficult task ln trading.” Wise words, thanks for the reminder.

    “Hoping Tariff Man ls soon removed.” It can’t happen soon enough for me.

  11. Ana Says:

    #10. Paula,

    “Waiting for the trade” – really helps if you need the funds from your trading to live on! 😀

    Tariff Man had the most ridiculous statements today! Just when you think things cannot get worse, they do!

    Good luck with your trades!

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