Tech Talk for Friday January 4th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 4th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 24 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to a 2.0% gain by the Shanghai Composite Index. During overnight trading, the Bank of China has added monetary stimulus by cutting bank reserve requirements.

Index futures dipped slightly following release of the U.S. December Employment Report. Consensus for December Non-farm Payrolls was 178,000 versus 155,000 in November. Actual was 312,000. Consensus for December Unemployment Rate was unchanged from November at 3.7%. Actual was an increase to 3.9%. Consensus for December Average Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.2% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.4%.

The Canadian Dollar moved slightly lower to 74.25 cents U.S. following release of the Canadian December Employment Report. Consensus was an increase in employment of 5,000 versus 94,100 in November. Actual was an increase of 9,300. Consensus for the December Unemployment Rate was an increase to 5.7% from 5.6% in November. Actual was unchanged at 5.6%.

Intel added $1.16 to $45.65 after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target was raised to $60 from $52.

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Netflix gained $8.05 to $279.44 after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Conviction Buy list.

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United Technologies (UTX $103.48) is expected to open lower after RBC downgraded the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/01/03/stock-market-outlook-for-january-4-2019/

Note seasonality charts on the Technology sector and Non-farm Payrolls.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to Noon: Bearish. Intermediate breakout: $CELG. Breakdowns: $ALGN $BMY $ALK $UAL.

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Silver equity ETF $SIL moved above $25.62 and #25.63 completing a base building pattern. ‘Tis the season for strength in silver stocks!

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 3rd 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

2019 World Outlook Financial Conference

Don Vialoux is scheduled to be one of the presenters this year

Tickets Still Available
Feb 1st & 2nd in Vancouver

CLICK to ORDER

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average dropped 4.97 to 6.83yesterday. It remains deeply intermediate oversold.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average was unchanged at 27.98 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold.

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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14 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday January 4th 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Appreciate your comments on $US/CDW. Granted there are many variables at play, curious to know at what points on the $CDW chart would you be likely to pull the trigger on converting USD to CDW?

    Also hoping to get your TA on PKI medical if you have some time, please.

    Hope your week and 2019 is off to a good start.

    Cheers,
    KC

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Cdn Banks – I don’t think we will see the Dec 24th low again. The most domestically focused are outperforming. LB, HCG, EQB, CWB. CM not bad.

  3. Larry/ON Says:

    Yesterday looks like a classic head fake which the big money used to strip the little guys out of their shares for a nice discount.

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    $CDW has just bounced back to the June/18 low support at 74.70 that broke down in December. Price would need to clear and hold above the closing price of 75 to suggest a rally further to 78. So regardless I’m not interested in accumulating more CD$ as the majority of my assists are already in CD$ unfortunately. And note the ratio charts show the downtrend in $CDW:$USD is still intact.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2400631673c&a=579408456

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    PKI broke its 2 year uptrendline AND price support at $80. Then it sold off typically to significant price support at the $69 area and bounced back to the broken support ‘area’ of $79-$80 and the underside of the broken 2 year uptrendline. So price is trapped between $79 and $69. One could simply buy support and sell resistance as long as these areas hold. But definitely not a buy until price re-clears and holds above $80.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PKI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p6146337798c&a=638527477

  6. Larry/ON Says:

    Re $CAD – Anyone short Cdn equities like those domestic banks or oil companies who would like to cover their position the last few days would be buying $CAD. Any new foreign money going into the Cdn market will be buying $CAD.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of IAU which is a $Gold Bullion Trust ETF with the Gold ETF:GLD overlaid to show how close they track each other. Price has rallied back to the downtrendline from 2011 which is also the broken uptrendline resistance from late 2015. And note the overbought oscillators as well as the lack of $Gold Stocks performance relative to $Gold. Odds of further gains in $Gold are slim looking at this chart.

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    RE: #7 Guess I should also post the chart………..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IAU&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p8986555910c&a=579408576

  9. FishFat Says:

    General Electric (GE)
    I am watching GE for a possible entry point. After a prolonged decline the chart is starting to look interesting. This week price broke above a double-bottom basing pattern. More importantly, the 34-day EMA is starting to flatten out. There is strong positive divergence of the MACD and the price is also starting to outperform the $SPX.

    I am not buying yet because the RSI(21) is still bearish. The Slow STO suggests the price is overbought and a pullback is likely. And I would like to see the SCTR move above the 25-level before jumping in. Seasonality does not turn positive until late February. Nonetheless, this may be one stock to keep on the radar.

    Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
    http://schrts.co/jSCaA4

  10. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    Looking at GE I made a 6 month chart of and see price has cleared $7.98 with Friday’s price range seeing $7.98 as the low of the day. I think GE is a buy with Friday’s price action as it cleared a nice “W” pattern clearly. Note the significance of the $7.90 area that just saw a price brake out and the 3rd day in a row with a close above $8.00. The patterns suggests a rally to $9.00.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3496674503c&a=638662667

  11. Richard Christie Says:

    Hi Don,
    I retired in 2013, but I am still very active in stock market trading and analysis.
    I agree that the technical charts ie 52 week High/Low and 200 day Advance/declines for both the TSX and NYSE have declined to significant bottoms. This past week they both came off the bottom. One scenario was tracking stocks that displayed yields over 6.5% and there were quite few. Locking in those yields now for the current year going forward has two benefits,
    an eventual higher yield based on the cost base as a result of the distributions and capital gains because those stocks have been beaten up so badly in the recent down trend.
    EXAMPLE—-VERMILION yielded 10.22% at a price of $27. Now $30.70 I locked in a yield of 9% and now have a small gain. I was buying on the way down. It is feasible that a $35 target
    is now very possible. I used the same strategy for other stocks.
    The only bank was Laurentian and locked in yield of 6.87%. It is likely that their mortgage problems have dissipated.

    Regards, Richard (ex Union Securities

  12. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    I think you are probably right. Breakout of the “W” pattern as you described does suggest a buy. I watched the chart on Thursday and Friday, but could just not pull the trigger. The Slow STO is well into the overbought territory. That may just be a consequence of the start of a bull run – or may be – early next week there will be a pullback to the 20-day moving average.

    I also noticed the RSI(21) has just squeaked past the 50-level and into bullish territory, plus the Long-term Modified MACD (50,200,20) is close to making a bullish cross of the signal line. There does seem to be potential.

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    My thoughts are price is king and after such a long and devastating sell off price with such bullish action and indicators GE should have at least a descent dead cat bounce to at least $9.00 which is what the “W” pattern breakout projects. Most “investors” are deeply under water now so running up a few bucks should be seen just by short covering alone.

  14. Ana Says:

    Back to the drawing board!

    $SPX $ES

    Maybe this:

    https://invst.ly/9ph06

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