Tech Talk for Thursday January 10th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday January 10th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 9 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a drop 225,000 from an upwardly revised 233,000 last week. Actual was 216,000.

Twitter gained $1.06 to $33.31 after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral. Target was raised to $39 from $31.

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Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY $12.26) is expected to open higher after the company raised its guidance for 2019

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Este Lauder (EL $127.83) is expected to open lower after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform. Target price was reduced to $135 from $165.

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KB Homes (KBH $21.98) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The company also raised guidance.

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Illinois Tool Works (ITW $129.99) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/01/09/stock-market-outlook-for-january-10-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil days of Supply and Gasoline days of Supply.

Update on the performance of the seasonal advantage portfolio

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/01/09/update-on-the-performance-of-the-seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Observations

The U.S. Dollar Index and its related ETN were notably weaker yesterday. Conversely, the Euro moved above resistance at 115 to set an intermediate uptrend.

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The Canadian Dollar also soared.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quietly bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $FL $PYPL. No breakdowns.

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, additional intermediate breakouts included CMG, DHI, LEN and NKTR.

Teck Resources $TECK, a TSX 60 stock moved above $22.74 U.S. extending an intermediate uptrend.

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VALE $VALE, another base metal stock moved above $14.28 completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for base metal stocks and ETFs to move higher to at least the end of February.

$ZMT.CA $XBM.CA $PICK $COPX

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Badger Daylighting $BAD.CA moved above $34.30 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Another Home Builder stock breakout! DR Horton $DHI moved above $38.11 completing a double bottom pattern.

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Lennar $LEN, another Home Builder stock moved above $44.10 and 44.73 completing a base building pattern.

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Editor’s Note: Not surprising, the Home Construction ETF ITB moved above $32.89 to complete a double bottom pattern

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Norbord $OSB.CA moved above $38.38 completing a base building pattern.

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‘Tis the season for Norbord to move higher to the end of April $OSB.CA

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Commodity prices spike higher on U.S. Dollar weakness.

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 9th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 9th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 9th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Gains to date by Major U.S. and Canadian Equity Indices from their late December Lows

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S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased 4.80 to 31.00 yesterday. It continues to recover from a deeply oversold level.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average jumped 14.40 to 55.56 yesterday. It continues to recover from an intermediate oversold level.

 

2019 World Outlook Financial Conference

Tickets Still Available
Feb 1st & 2nd in Vancouver

CLICK to ORDER

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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7 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday January 10th 2019”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Happy New Year all from Mexico

    Just to say hello and let you know I am still alive and reasonably well and still happy to be living in Mexico. 2018 was a challenging year and I have only glanced at this blog occasionally. I see new names and just a couple of the ones I have known for many years.

    Sherri,
    I do look occasionally to see if you have posted Armstrong Private Blog which I do value – not certain how helpful it has been but I do enjoy receiving the information. I see you are on the blog and posting this info less than you use to. I do hope you are okay?
    I just saw on Armstrong Blog that there was a Private post on Dow Clarification last night and hope that you will share it with us if you are able.

  2. Larry/ON Says:

    Cdn Banks – There has been a flurry of economists and fund managers on BNN now pushing the banks as undervalued with and an economist from Nat’l Bank now saying the banks are trading at a 10 year low of forward earnings on average 9X. ZEB pushed through the monthly pivot point yesterday and I am looking for a clear push to resistance at $28. For anyone interested plot on stockcharts CM.TO:ZEB.TO on a three year chart and spot the pattern. The clear leader has been LB which I am starting to take profits on and shift to other names like CM. The risk is recession but at present it appears overblown.

  3. Ana Says:

    Thank you Ron/BC for this post that you made earlier in the week.

    “Ron/BC Says:
    January 8th, 2019 at 11:57 am
    The $SPX just ran into the concrete ceiling. And so has the Dow. These major breakdown levels need to be cleared and held to suggest strength ahead. Even then there are the broken uptrend lines to deal with above. Lots of work to do for these fallen angels.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9473364364c&a=582707024

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4068821887c&a=579408678

    Here is my revised short term chart based on the first chart:

    http://schrts.co/uu66bq

    I am thinking that the December 13th – December 14th gap might have to be filled in.

  4. Paula Says:

    Greetings Tawny,
    Good to hear you are alive and well. With all the bad news out of Mexico, I was thinking of you and hoping all was well. I was trying to remember if you are in a “gated community”.

    I am still following Ciovacco and consider his weekly videos very helpful.

    Good luck in 2019. I hope it is a better year for everyone.

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    Here is a 6 month chart of the $SPX. There was support at 2630 area (closing prices) over the last 3 months that will now serve as resistance. I think that is also where the gap you mentioned is as well. Very big test in this 2580-2630 price area which were the 2018 lows tested a few times. Historically the big boys love to see a bounce back to broken major and obvious support so they can short the crap out of it and sell if off. Can’t see them resisting such a lucrative opportunity. And of course they tend to be there at a bottom to cover their shorts and go long again. And they feed the financial media a good story both ways to explain it all away. Will be interesting to see what develops ahead. I’d say it’s like betting on black or red……………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3294427285c&a=639595909

  6. Gary Says:

    Here is Armstrong’s latest

    Now, the next turning point is the week of 01/21 and notice the Panic Cycle due the week of 01/28. That means, if we rally into the week of 01/21 and we CANNOT achieve a Weekly Closing Above 25005, then we must respect the fact that we could still make a January low the week of 01/28 completing a 3 month reaction from the October high. A 5 month decline would bring us into March. The first Daily Bullish Reversal stand at The Daily Bullish Reversals are 24058 and 24089. followed by 25100. Therefore, we can take out the first two and then bounce off the 25000 zone since that is where the Weekly begins and the third Daily Bullish.

    There is no indication that we are in a major bear market. Nor are we ready to breakout to the upside just yet.

    Some people seem to be confused. What I am saying is the Directional Change on the Weekly level implies the low for the 26th and that cannot be a low without a bounce. January is also a Monthly Directional Change. Therefore, we have the distinct potential to just consolidate and hold off any new low until May. To do that would REQUIRE a closing above the Daily Reversals.

  7. Ana Says:

    #1. Tawny,

    Happy New Year!

    So good to hear from you!

    Have you remained in Mexico this entire time? Have you received your status that you were applying for from Mexico City?

    Are you still trading?

    Hope you have a healthy and happy 2019!

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