Tech Talk for Friday January 11th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday January 11th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 8 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures drifted lower following release of the U.S. December Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was a drop of 0.1% versus no change in November. Actual was a drop of 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in November. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. The U.S. Dollar Index also drifted lower following release of the December CPI report.

Alcoa (AA $28.98) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan lowered its target price to $57 from $79.

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Weight Watchers (WTW $35.08) is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight.

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Starbucks dropped $1.72 to $62.47 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy sighting a slowdown in sales in China.

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Netflix gained $8.58 to $333.35 after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Outperform. Target was increased to $450 from $425.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/01/10/stock-market-outlook-for-january-11-2019/

Note seasonality chart on the Biotech industry.

Observations

Encouraging technical action in China sensitive ETFs! Nice breakout by $EWH above $22.53 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdown: $EL

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After 10:00 AM EST, intermediate breakouts included BBBY, MGM and EBAY

Cogeco Cable $CCA.CA moved above $67.96 completing a base building pattern.

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Chile iShares $ECH moved above $44.28 completing a double bottom pattern. Highly correlated with copper stocks!

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eBay $EBAY moved above $30.36 completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for eBay $EBAY to move higher to the end of April!

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CGI Group $GIB $GIB.A.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.90 U.S. extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Editor’s Note: CGI Group was selected yesterday on BNNBloomberg’s Market Call by Hap Sneddon of CastleMoore as a Top Pick

Rogers Communications $RCI $RCI.B.CA , a TSX 60 stock moved above $54.46 U.S. to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Loblaw Companies $L.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $62.89 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Interfor $IFP.CA moved above $16.07 completing a double bottom pattern.

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‘Tis the season for Interfor $IFP.CA and other forest product stocks to move higher to the end of April.

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Hap Sneddon on BNN Bloomberg Yesterday

Following are links:

Market Comment

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-market-outlook~1583499

Top Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-top-picks~1583502

Past Picks

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/hap-sneddon-s-past-picks~1583500

Top Pick

Early this week, Investors Digest asked Tech Talk for a Top Pick. Publication of comments is available starting today for subscribers. See www.adviceforinvestors.com. The base metal sector was selected as a Top Pick for a seasonal trade lasting to the end of April. Following is quick summary of comments:

Fundamental prospects are improving. Inventory levels for copper and zinc are at or near multi-year lows. Largest user of base metals is China. A trade agreement between China and the U.S. will set the stage for a surge in demand for base metals.

Seasonal influences for base metal prices and base metal equity prices turn positive in mid-January for a seasonal trade lasting to the end of April.

Technical picture for base metals and base metal equities is showing early signs of improving prior to start of its period of seasonal strength despite difficult North American equity indices since the beginning of October. Prices have moved lower, but strength relative to the S&P 500 and TSX Composite has been positive since the beginning of December.

Recent completion by the U.S. Dollar Index of a double top pattern is positive for commodity prices in general including base metal prices.

Easiest way to invest in the sector is through Exchange Traded Funds:

Commodity:

Copper futures based ETF:JJCTF

 

Equities:

U.S.: PICK COPX

Cdn: XBM ZMT

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 10th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

2019 World Outlook Financial Conference

Tickets Still Available
Feb 1st & 2nd in Vancouver

CLICK to ORDER

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 9.00 to 40.00 yesterday. It continues to recover and has moved from Intermediate Oversold to Intermediate Neutral

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer advanced another 5.35 to 60.91 yesterday. It continues to trend higher and has moved from Intermediate Oversold to Intermediate Overbought on a move above 60%.

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Editor’s Note: Tech Talk invested in the Seasonal Advantage Portfolio at the end of October. The Fund is managed by Jon Vialoux at CastleMoore. Since the end of October, the Fund has been on a rollercoaster ride. However, owning equities with positive seasonal trends that are outperforming the market has proven to be a relatively successful strategy despite difficult conditions. Consider the following returns since the end of October:

S&P 500 Index: -4.26%

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -4.43%

NASDAQ Composite Index: -4.38%

Other Seasonal Fund: -2.18%

TSX Composite Index: -0.82%

Unofficial Seasonal Advantage Portfolio: -0.37%

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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29 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday January 11th 2019”

  1. Tawny Says:

    Paula
    re your post
    Greetings Tawny,
    Good to hear you are alive and well. With all the bad news out of Mexico, I was thinking of you and hoping all was well. I was trying to remember if you are in a “gated community”.
    —-
    What bad news? You know how it is, most “news” that is broadcast is bad news and often fake news. In my community, we are mostly very, very happy and living among the Mexican people is great. I am in a private casa with a big secure wall around it -as is the style here. I have total privacy. I have no fear living hear.
    I still scan through Ciovacco weekly video and usually peek at his twitters too.

  2. Tawny Says:

    Ana
    Says: January 11th, 2019 at 3:52 am
    #1. Tawny, Happy New Year! So good to hear from you!
    Have you remained in Mexico this entire time? Have you received your status that you were applying for from Mexico City?
    Are you still trading?
    —-
    Yes I have been in Mexico over 4 years now. My standard of living is much greater than I could possibly afford in Canada. I live in a beautiful rented house which includes a maid two times a week, and gardener 3 times a week. Eat out frequently and attend local cultural events at prices perhaps one third of the cost in Canada. And of course a much better climate… not living at the beach, I am in the mountains… it gets cool in Winter here… as low as 8 at night, warming now though.. No percip. at this time of year. … highs up around 20 – 25 at the moment and usually lots of sun, warming the day. Winter is comparatively gentle, and it is short.

    Wishing you all a new year filled with contentment (for that is what is truly important).
    I have had my “temporal Mexican Visa” and will be applying for permanent in March (quite automatic I understand). This does not make me a Mexcian citizen. I am and always will be a Canadian citizen living abroad.
    I have not done a lot of “trading” for some time. But I have money invested and have taken my lumps with everyone. Health issue has made it difficult for me to concentrate for the past few months…

  3. Tawny Says:

    Gary

    Thanks for posting Armstrong…. so much appreciated. Are you a Socrates subscriber?
    Would so much appreciate your posting the private blog info here in future too…. is possible?

  4. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/Bc,

    Wondering if you feel EXE.TO will hit strong resistance at this point and back off from its little run up. Its broken above the April/18 downtrend line today.

    Thanks,
    KC

  5. Ana Says:

    $SPX $ES

    Still in this formation, backchecking the bottom shoulder line of the large head and shoulders that broke.

    Just not sure where the exact bottom shoulder line is.

    https://invst.ly/9rd8m

  6. Ana Says:

    “Ron/BC Says:
    January 10th, 2019 at 8:08 pm
    Ana

    Here is a 6 month chart of the $SPX. There was support at 2630 area (closing prices) over the last 3 months that will now serve as resistance. I think that is also where the gap you mentioned is as well. Very big test in this 2580-2630 price area which were the 2018 lows tested a few times. Historically the big boys love to see a bounce back to broken major and obvious support so they can short the crap out of it and sell if off. Can’t see them resisting such a lucrative opportunity. And of course they tend to be there at a bottom to cover their shorts and go long again. And they feed the financial media a good story both ways to explain it all away. Will be interesting to see what develops ahead. I’d say it’s like betting on black or red……………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3294427285c&a=639595909

    Thank you for your comment. I posted the very short chart to point out the gap. The resistance line is very clear in the area that you underlined, but that line goes over to the area where the large head and shoulders started that took us down to 2351. That line is slanted a bit and I thought that perhaps the gap would be filled prior to starting the next downturn that should take down again.

    http://schrts.co/uu66bq

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    EXE.to broke its multi year uptrendline and is now trying to bounce back to that broken line at 7.25. It did much the same thing when it broke down below 8.25 support and bounced back to the breakdown point and sold off again. This is a very long term chart so descent bounces can be seen and traded but price would need to clear at least $7.00 to suggest strength ahead. I don’t see much upside to this stock myself unless there is some shocking good news etc.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXE.TO&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99220062685&a=612196672

  8. Ron/BC Says:

    Tawny
    Good to hear you are happy and doing well in Mexico. Sounds like you make a brave and successful life style change. All the best ahead………………….

  9. Ana Says:

    #2. Tawny,

    Glad to hear that you have your temporary Mexican Visa. It sounds like a lovely life.

    The weather is the nicest part. I do miss the sun in the winter and have to work hard not to fall into a depressive state.

    Nice to hear from you!

    Oh, by the way, you can now vote!

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-expat-voting-rights-ruling-1.4970305?fbclid=IwAR39pfDip1LjsrwfW5J5ch5zveU0p3kRlYHWWwzesWzBPlQmsKC6dvwUoIA

  10. JP/BC Says:

    Tawny: I too am glad to hear things are going well for you. I envy the weather you are experiencing right now.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    The small cap ETF:XSU.to (which tracks the Russell 2000 small cap ETF:IWM)is approaching important price resistance. That would be the 2018 support breakdown point as well as the downtrendline from September at roughly 30.75-31 area using intraday and closing prices. Need to see price clear 31 and hold above to be out of the woods. Not much volume on this ETF like most $TSX ETFs.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XSU.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2765126990c&a=639617756

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    The #SPX ETF:SPY and the $TSX equivalant ETF:XSP.to track much the same. Here is that chart with resistance at 29.50 and the downtrendline from early Oct at 30.50. It will take a lot of momentum to clear these resistance levels. At least this $TSX ETF has plenty of volume to enter and exit.

    The Canadian banks ETF:ZEB.to has rallied back to major resistance being the 2018 support breakdown point plus the downtrendline from September. That has to be cleared and held to get even a little bullish……………

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XSP.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2948034933c&a=625692185

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7974406865c&a=579408450

  13. Gary Says:

    Tawny
    #3
    Like Sherri, I was subscribed to Socrates then let it lapse. Still seem to have limited access though.
    I will post the private blogs as long as I can. 🙂

    Your life in Mexico sounds very interesting. How do you cope being away from family?

  14. Ana Says:

    Has anyone had a peek at S.To lately?

    This is a great reason not to buy and hold.

    http://schrts.co/P8Skez

  15. Ana Says:

    Oops, something went wrong with that link.

    I will try again.

    S. To

    http://schrts.co/P8Skez

  16. Tawny Says:

    Ron/BC

    Thank you re comments re #8. I am among thousands of expats, mostly Americans and Canadians.. so I feel at home. We are in high season now with all the snow birds – traffic is terrible at this time of year!
    Wishing you a new year filled with contentment, Ron.

  17. Tawny Says:

    Gary,

    #13. Thank you for posting… I do like to read Armstrong and what the computer is forecasting so I very much appreciate getting these “extras.” At this time of life, I have very, very little family to miss. But there are many expats who live here full time and see family much less, but in our modern age of cell phones and Skype, etc. they are just fine with it. Every one is different.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    I clicked on your link to S.to on your post #14 & #15 and got this:

    “”Dynamic Link not found
    If you are the developer of this app, ensure that your Dynamic Links domain is correctly configured and that the path component of this URL is valid.””
    Firebase

    So I used Stockcharts.com and made a chart of S.to and tried to upload and post this chart as I usually do, but since clicking on your link I get the same comment and can’t upload charts anymore to post as it just goes to that same page. Any ideas?

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    I just copied the link at the top of the Stockchart’s chart of S.to rather than upload it and copy which is what I usually do and it seems to work the same. I sent it to my own email and it opened. Perhaps Stockcharts has changed the way one copies and pastes charts. But as anyone can see this is just one of many $TSX stocks that over time has crashed and burned. I recall someone mentioning on this site last year that very few stock investors were posting anymore. I recall at the time thinking that if anyone went through all the $TSX charts they’d understand why so many just aren’t interested in stocks anymore with the dramatic losses on so many stocks. Most Canadians load up on Oil stocks and Mining stocks and Gold and Silver stocks and looking at them all there have been huge long term losses on so many of these and other types as well. Throw in the Royalty stock fiasco etc and there hasn’t been much to cheer about. Lets see if this link posts………..

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=S.TO&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4258668909c&a=639867480&listNum=1

  20. Ana Says:

    #18 and #19 Ron/BC

    I know! What a mess I made of my posts!

    Thank you for posting that chart of S.To.

    I think that they have changed their procedure too. Good idea to post on your email first, to see what is really posting. That is what happens when I think I know what I am doing!

    I was not able to sleep the other night and so I was spending time on my computer, trying to look up some of the old stocks that I once traded. So astonished to see that the low in December for Sherritt was 37 cents!

    So much for buy and hold.

  21. JP/BC Says:

    Re #20: Maybe they need to call it “Buy and Fold”?

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana

    Here is a Stockcharts 60 minute chart of the $SPX that I didn’t have to upload etc as I usually do and just copied and pasted the link. It shows up on my email back to myself but may not show here on this site. Normally no one can post intraday charts to anyone who isn’t a subscriber. Would be handy if everyone could post intraday charts for short term traders. That’s what I used to do mainly and used Qcharts which was about $200 per month for futures etc but was live. I do miss it but don’t trade enough to justify it. As far as “buying and holding” stocks it reminds me of the guy that walked into a blacksmith’s shop and picked up a horseshoe that was sitting there. He didn’t know it had just been heated and serviced so tossed it immediately. The blacksmith said, “Hot hey?”. The guy said “No,it just doesn’t take me long to look at a horseshoe.” That’s how I feel when holding a stock that starts to go south. Let me know if this shows up ok.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p0586453219c&listNum=1&a=579408709

  23. FishFat Says:

    Ana
    re: #14 Sherritt International (S.to)
    Despite its poor performance the stock is starting to look interesting. The 34-period EMA has flattened out. There is positive divergence of the conventional MACD – which recently made a bullish cross. Ditto for the short-term modified MACD. The long-term modified MACD has also just made a bullish cross. The RSI(21) close to turning bullish – as are other indicators. It is worth watching. I am surmising that a Head & Shoulders bottom may be forming. An entry point may be near at hand – maybe.
    Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=S.TO&p=D&st=2017-05-01&en=2019-01-11&id=p9464168064c&listNum=85&a=640016858

  24. Rol Lew Says:

    Deja vu, all over again….

    14 trading days ago, LBS.to revisited the levels of its historic lows
    (Dec 2011, June 2012, Aug 2016) and now Dec 2018.
    Is anyone able to post the stockcharts 7 year chart? or even a 3 year chart?

    this is the freestockcharts 8 day chart
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=15bc1097-6110-46f0-aba8-521752b501e4
    you must have freestockcharts set up in internet explorer to see it.

    https://www.bromptongroup.com/product/life-banc-split-corp/

    Something is “wrong” with this picture.

  25. Rol Lew Says:

    this is the sheritt 8 day chart
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=61fcd6ff-ceb2-471f-a0dc-3c0293ba22ba

    sp-500
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=45e43229-3d36-4c15-a8d0-2e89a4790826

  26. Rol Lew Says:

    xsp-t 4 day http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=cde5a2ca-e25d-4ebf-9756-1ffb18367e44

    zeb-t 4 day http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=aaeba4c3-ec65-4b59-b08a-bed13e50a1b9

  27. Rol Lew Says:

    2 hour charts
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=ce356503-0c4f-492e-a32b-363f4b2cd423
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=51419314-065c-4676-8ada-6da219ab8452
    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b2e45a59-0afa-498c-8178-4833b13b1035

  28. Ron/BC Says:

    Rol Lew

    Here is a multi year chart of LBS.to. You can change the time period as well.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LBS.TO&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5298206356c&listNum=1&a=640092266

  29. bruce Says:

    rol lew
    I find barcharts.com provide all the charts and technicals i need…….

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