Tech Talk for Tuesday January 15th 2019

Daily Reports Add comments

Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 15th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 1 point in pre-opening trade. Index futures were supported by a 34.58 point gain by the Shanghai Composite Index to 2,570.34 following a pledge by the Chinese government to lower tax rates.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Producer Price Index a drop of 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in November. Actual was a drop of 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, consensus for December PPI was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.2% in November. Actual was a decline of 0.1%. Consensus for January Empire State Manufacturing Survey was 10.00 versus an upwardly revised 11.5 in December. Actual was 3.9.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH $248.06) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

clip_image001[1]

JP Morgan dropped $2.74 to $98.20 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

clip_image002[1]

Wells Fargo dipped $0.17 to $48.25 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings, but lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.

clip_image003[1]

Delta Airlines slipped $0.75 to 47.00 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

clip_image004

Sherwin Williams dropped $29.94 to $367.86 after lowering fourth quarter guidance.

clip_image005

 

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/01/14/stock-market-outlook-for-january-15-2019/

Note seasonality chart on Silver vs Gold

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Goldcorp $G.CA $GG moved above $13.67 Cdn. and $10.08 U.S. on a share offer by $NEM extending an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image001

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout: $EQT. No breakdowns.

clip_image002

Martinrea $MRE.CA move above $11.97 setting an intermediate uptrend.

clip_image003

‘Tis the season for Martinrea $MRE.CA are auto part stocks to move higher to mid-June.!

clip_image005

U.S. utilities stocks break intermediate support: $D $DUK $ED. $PCG concerns are spreading.

clip_image006

 

TSX 60 Index

The Index has nicely outperformed the S&P 500 Index since mid- December thanks partially to strength in commodity sensitive equities in the Index.

clip_image007

The Index and related ETFs have a history of outperforming the S&P 500 Index until the end of February. RSP contributions at this time of year are a contributing factor.

clip_image009

 

Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 14th 2019

clip_image011

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 14th 2019

clip_image013

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 14th 2019

clip_image015

Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

clip_image016

The Barometer slipped 1.40 to 38.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate oversold and trending higher.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

clip_image017

The Barometer eased 1.25 to 61.75 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and trending higher.

 

Technical Scoop

David Chapman’s weekly comment compliments of www.enrichedinvesting.com

http://enrichedinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Bear-Rally-Bull-Trap-Shutdown-Bite-Absent-Data-Housing-Tip-Debt-Mou….pdf

 

2019 World Outlook Financial Conference

Tickets Still Available
Feb 1st & 2nd in Vancouver

CLICK to ORDER

 

clip_image019

http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

Sponsored By...



17 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday January 15th 2019”

  1. Ana Says:

    Ron/BC

    I went back to Thursday, January 10th, 2019 to review my short term chart, which was a revision of your chart, to check about the gap in the #SPX.

    When I clicked on my shortened link for my chart, this is what printed out:

    “StockCharts.com – This Permalink is no longer available
    We are very sorry however this Permalink no longer works.
    The URL shortening service than we used – goo.gl – stopped working suddenly on Friday.
    We are working hard to create our own URL shortening service and hope to have it working by this Wednesday.
    At that point, you’ll be able to create new Permalinks for your charts.
    If we could find anyone at Google to yell at about this we would. Unfortunately, they do not provide customer support.
    While Google has lost those links, ultimately we are responsible for choosing to use their service instead of writing our own and for that we apologize. – StockCharts.com”

    So we have the answer as to what exactly happened with my S. To chart!

  2. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Would love to have your thoughts on BMO, TD and CWB on TSX please. do you think they’re going to bump up against this downtrend line and retreat ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana
    Thanks for the info. What I’ve been doing since the Permalink doesn’t work anymore is simply copy and paste the url at the top of the Stockchart’s chart I’ve viewed and that seems to work….”I think”. At least it works when I send it to myself. BUTTTTTTTTTTTT that could be presumptuous as I am a subscriber and it may only work for subscribers and not for others. Please advise if you can or can’t see this chart.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1990-03-10&id=p86482514274&listNum=1&a=579408390

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Here is a long term line chart of the banks. You can see that when they go over the waterfall much like the broad market did they go over basically together. They also selloff for about 16 months if the last two major selloffs are a gauge. So far the selloff has been about one year.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p8924736212c&listNum=1&a=579408510

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4915217863c&listNum=1&a=584842040

    Here is TD that like the others has sold off hard and about one dollar away from the major breakdown point resistance. Same thing with CWB.to but it has broken above its downtrendline. With the spread between short and long term rates ‘they say’ the banks can’t make money in a meaningful way.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p1408336239c&listNum=1&a=579408582

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CWB.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9874994377c&listNum=1&a=579408540

  5. Ana Says:

    #3. Ron/BC

    Ron, I can see your chart.

    However, when I use one of your charts to change it to my own indicators, I can not post it because it does not have a normal url. It simply has the permalink instead of a normal url. So, unfortunately, I can not post any more charts from stockcharts.

    I am going to buy a cup of coffee.

  6. Roy Says:

    Hello Ron/BC
    Seems like the USD is starting to drop. When is the approximate low point to transfer CDN and buy back the USD? TIA

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy
    Here is a ratio chart of $USD:$CAD and you can see the uptrend overall. The currencies are not great at respecting support and resistance levels as they are all ‘relative’ to each other. Especially the U.S.$ and the Euro. Too many variables to quantify really and most currencies have a lot of political influence on them to help countries export. But bottom line is the U.S.$ is the world’s reserve currency and what most investors go to ultimately. So always a tough call but the CD$ is known to be a petro currency or a commodity currency and until they have strong uptrends once again the CD$ isn’t likely to do much on the upside. And with a recession nearby after most markets topping out I wouldn’t expect the CD economy to do that great ahead for some time.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD%3A%24CAD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0126745480c&listNum=1&a=579408311

  8. KC Says:

    Ron/bc,

    Great big picture on banks, will save it! Thanks!

  9. Roy Says:

    Thanks Ron/Bc – I guess there is no seasonality for the USD?

  10. Larry/ON Says:

    Cdn Banks – Great companies but actually you could have done better in the past three weeks just owning XIC. The only outperformers have been LB and CWB and LB just stalled. You start seeing the same downtrend line and the same horizontal congestion area in most charts and some have broken the downtrend line. Look at US banks KBE and you see virtually the same chart as CM (USD). IMO most stocks and the overall market will get to that area we were at in Nov which will be resistance.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Here is the CD Bank ETF:ZEB.to. The above ratio charts do show ZEB.to has been outperforming the U.S.Bank ETF along with BAC and other bank ETFs like ZBK.to as well. So if price can clear the breakdown point at $27.35 ‘and hold’ above it price could rally another $2 to $3 to a double top. Meanwhile price is right at resistance and overbought so I wouldn’t bet a lot on it. The Long Term M.MACD is curling back up but hasn’t crossed up for a buy signal yet. It does tend to be late in its signals but usually worth the wait for proof of the pudding.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0672410398c&listNum=1&a=579408450

  12. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy

    Here is a seasonal chart for the $USD plus another chart for the $USD:$CAD. Not sure if they’ll show differently.

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24usd&compare=

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=%24USD&compare=%24CAD

  13. Ron/BC Says:

    Roy

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=uup&compare=fxc

  14. wsto Says:

    I notice techtalk has been using the phrase ‘rally in a bear market’ to describe the current condition. Is there a post on the reasoning behind this decision? I understand that by definition a bear market is a drop of 20% of more, which we have witnessed on the $SPX from from 2940 to 2346. I am also interested to hear if others agree/disagree with this description, or maybe being in a bear vs bull market doesn’t affect your strategy?

  15. Ana Says:

    This is the chart that I posted on January 10th, 2019

    The gap and the top of the Bollinger bands line up.

    https://invst.ly/9sl1g

  16. dave/ab Says:

    HI Wsto

    I view that state as bear market long term and rally short term. Time frame dependent and may dictate your investing style

  17. Tawny Says:

    Sherri or Gary,

    Hope one of you will post Armstrong Private blog from this afternoon. Thank you.

Entries RSS Comments RSS Log in