Tech Talk for Friday February 1st 2019

Daily Reports Add comments

 

Observation

More technical evidence that the U.S. Home Building Industry has bottomed: Nice breakout by ITB above $33.67 extending a double bottom pattern.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:15: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $LEN $SBUX $WYNN $MDLZ $ALGN $MA $CHTR. Breakdowns: $CLX $HSY

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After 10:00 AM EST, breakouts included MA, CHTR, DXC, FAST, TGT, EFX, FTNT, DUK, EXC, AVB, LLY, YUM, STZ, CCI, IDXX, EQIX and DHR. Breakdown: HRB.

Base Metals ETN (copper, zinc, aluminum) $DBB moved above $16.32 setting an intermediate uptrend

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Base metals equity ETF $XBM.CA moved above $11.99 responding to higher base metal prices completing a double bottom pattern

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Chile iShares $ECH moved above $46.44 in response to higher base metal prices extending an intermediate uptrend

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Air Canada $AC.CA moved above $29.39 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Another Canadian gold stock breakout! Eldorado Gold $ELD.CA $EGO moved above $4.55 Cdn and $3.43 U.S. setting an uptrend.

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Copper equity ETF $COPX moved above $20.56 completing a double bottom pattern. ‘Tis the season for strength in base metal stocks to May!

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Trader’s Corner

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for January 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for January 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for January 31st 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 6.40 to 79.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added another 0.84 to 84.81 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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33 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday February 1st 2019”

  1. JP/BC Says:

    Can someone who follows Armstrong explain what he means by “panic cycle”? His computer model predicted one for the last week in January.

  2. Ana Says:

    I am guessing here, but it looks as though we are finishing up a large wave and now we are on V, as IV was a bit down, more sideways.

    https://invst.ly/9yd8j

  3. rocketdave Says:

    Impressive numbers out in the labour market
    Today…looking like a rate hike in the future.
    And it wasn’t enough to keep the markets up
    In the highs that they were earlier…may be
    another leg down from here as fear comes back…

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    For those bouncing off the walls with the $GOLD rally this chart should put things in perspective. This time last year price hit a high of $1362 which was $10 short of the mid 2016 high of $1372.
    And the major $Gold stock ETF:GDX continues to underperform $GOLD and needs to clear $25 to mean much. No cigars yet……

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9610059391c&a=579408551

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51599844661&a=579408537

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    The Canadian dollar $CDW had a classic chart pattern breaking back above its breakdown point at 75 and then forming a flag. A perfect example of a Flag Pole & Flag. And typically there is a 2nd Flag once the 1st is complete. Price is now forming the 2nd Flag and building its Flagpole. Price may not duplicate the first one but often does.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p3574391319c&a=579408456

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX is poking its nose above the downtrendline from October and above the 200ema and bumping up against the FIB 61.8% retracment point of the big selloff. Price has moved a lot in the last month and will likely need to consolidate soon before any more upside. The moving averages need to recross in a bullish way and major players will likely take profits gained in such a short period of time as they don’t fall in love with stocks but just use them. Exiting here and shorting this high would be typical of the major players. A buy point would be an oversold reading on the oscillators. They are now overbought.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p8653249403c&a=582707024

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    $WTIC bounced off of $42 support and is now bumping up against major price resistance of $55. The pattern over the last 2.5 months is a bullish Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. Like all patterns price must clear AND hold above $55 to suggest a run into the 60’s. The direction of the U.S.$ is affecting commodity prices and will continue to do so. The U.S.$ charts are still all bullish.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5794850314c&a=579408501

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98139081158&a=579408368

  8. GARY Says:

    Armstrong on the Dow

    We elected a Long-Term Monthly Bullish in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, the market held the 21600 Monthly Bearish Reversal. Electing this Long-Term Monthly Bullish Reversal is suggesting that we are not dealing with a broader change in trend. We are facing a change in public sentiment and 2020 appears to be a serious change in trend insofar as people among the general public will begin to question government. This shutdown has only demonstrated that Washington has collapsed into just party politics. As I have have stated, the wall was $5.7 billion and one week’s interest payments are $6.7 billion. So it was never a matter of money. It was just party politics at its best. This means that we have crossed the line and government is no longer capable of managing anything. As pensions and debt become the crisis post-2020, both sides will just be blaming the other and nobody will be interested in actually solving anything. We can expect SUBSTANTIAL tax increases from the Democrats enough to really wipe out economic growth.

    The prospects for the US share market remain intact. We are looking at the Greatest Trade of a lifetime coming on the next train. Washington and all governments are now hopelessly lost. They will not face the implosion of socialism as all their promises cannot be funded. They will give it a good shot raising every tax they can think of. But that will not be enough to save the day.

    The number on the Dow are confirming we are by no means facing a major bear market. This is still in the staging process for wild times ahead.

  9. GARY Says:

    …. and 30 year bonds
    We elected a minor short-term Monthly Bullish on the 30-yr bonds. However, we also elected two LONG-TERM Monthly Bearish thereby creating a super-position event. This is merely confirming that we are NOT dealing with a change in trend, but with a reaction. The closing of 146220 for January was above the very first reversal but the second was 146240. This was also a Double and the failure to close above that second one warns that the rally is not that impressive.

  10. GARY Says:

    #1
    “Panic Cycle – Normally, a Panic Cycle is something that will exceed the previous high and penetrate the previous low. It will traditionally take out both previous session events. However, it can also be just an extreme move in one direction, which is often indicated by opening above the previous high or below the previous session low.”

    I’m not sure, but I don’t really think there was any extreme movements in the last week of January, so maybe on this one he was wrong – ??

  11. JP/BC Says:

    Re #10: Thanks Gary. Your comments are what I saw as well. I didn’t see “panic”.

    Armstrong also said in post #8: “We elected a Long-Term Monthly Bullish in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Of course, the market held the 21600 Monthly Bearish Reversal. Electing this Long-Term Monthly Bullish Reversal is suggesting that we are not dealing with a broader change in trend”. And later “The prospects for the US share market remain intact. We are looking at the Greatest Trade of a lifetime coming on the next train.”

    Can someone translate into layman’s terms?

  12. GARY Says:

    #11
    JP/BC

    I’m with you, I follow Armstrong, but don’t understand what he is saying 1/2 the time. He talks in riddles as far as I’m concerned.
    In the past I know he said the DOW would hit 40,000, so I think maybe that is what he is referring to in the “trade of a lifetime”.
    I with he would just speak plain language too!

  13. GARY Says:

    #12
    *wish* obviously getting late.

  14. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the 10 year U.S Treasury Yield Index once again. I created this chart several years ago with its downtrending channel and put on the RSI 8 as usual but made a Monthly chart rather than a Daily or Weekly. I noticed that every time the RSI 8 cleared the 70 line and then broke down below that level the yield fell in a zig zag pattern for roughly 1 to 3 years. The last time this occurred price had cleared the long term 30 year downtrendline, plus cleared above the 2014 high double top of 30.36. It looked like a clear long term breakout with the 10 year rate about to rally with a major reversal back to up again. But the RSI 8 suggested that would not be the case and would do what it has done every other time this has occurred and would sell off for a very long time. It now seems to have been confirmed (so far) that the 10 year rate is in a downtrend with lower rates ahead. Is still hard to believe…………………….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=M&st=1986-10-01&id=p1259326520c&a=579408636

  15. bruce Says:

    tnx Gary for the Armstrong update………his befuddled language is the reason i didnt subscribe to his Socrates when it became available…..sounded great at the time but if i couldnt understand it there wasnt any point subscribing……..

  16. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC
    re: #5 $CDW
    Nice call on the flagpole & flag pattern. I saw your post last weekend as well – you nailed it.

    re:#7 $WTIC
    By my reckoning price for $WTIC broke above resistance on Friday (but I am splitting hairs). I expect the breakout will be short lived – there is negative divergence of the RSI(8), a declining MACD Histogram and a weak breakout volume that shows a lack of commitment on the part of buyers.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&st=2018-06-04&en=2019-02-01&id=p6825579786c&listNum=85&a=643813745

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat
    Can’t disagree with #16. A lot of markets have rallied to major price resistance or Fib 61.8% retracement levels or their falling 200ema. I don’t think that smart money will just ignore it but will exit and short the crap out of this big stretched out rebound. It’s just to juicy for them not to…………….big test here.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    RE:#14
    Someone suggested to me that the U.S.Treasury 10 yr Index I posted did not show up as “Monthly” chart but a Daily chart. One would have to see it on a Monthly chart as that what makes it work as it does with the RSI 8. I know Stockcharts wont allow anyone reposting intraday charts but I didn’t think it would block a Monthly chart and turn it into a Daily chart. I can’t tell of course as being a subscriber I can see it as I posted it. I wonder if anyone else that isn’t a subscriber can see it as a Monthly chart. I would think one could change the setting on the posted chart to Monthly though.

  19. kam Says:

    Ron/BC

    #14

    Good post as always.

    TNX don’t lie. Looks like low rates in mortgage coming even if they try to increase rates. Might mean everything is not right in the Wall country.

    NTR,

    Talking of Wall country, Don’t know if we need wall but We also need people here who come thru proper channel But even after that, also start helping the economy asap.We don’t need the one who come here and paid approx $3000 a month for years, kept in Sandman hotel for free, have nothing to do but just walk around Guildford Mall with Grande cup of Starbucks. Can’t blame them. Why would one need to worry when it is all paid for by us and our kids’ future income. All I know is that I am not voting for this pretty boy next time.

    Well, just ending with this.. Go Patriots.

  20. FishFat Says:

    Ron/BC re: #18
    I am also a Stockcharts subscriber but I see your posted chart as a “Daily”. I have had the same problem attempting to post monthly charts – they get converted to “Daily”

  21. Ron/BC Says:

    FishFat

    RE:#20. The chart must be seen as a Monthly chart to see the 6 sell signals in the TNX since 1987 that then saw the Yield on the 10 yr U.S. Treasury fall for 1 to several years after the sell signals. Even then the bounce back in the yield remained in a falling channel with lower highs and lower lows for over 30 years. I guess there isn’t any point in posting anything but Daily charts using Stockcharts on this site. Just a waste of time it seems. But the signals were in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2006, 2013 and 2017/2018. One could use another charting service I guess and duplicate the chart if interested to see for themselves as that yield is meaningful. The price breakout in 2018 over the late 2013 high also broke out over that more than 30 year downtrendline and after a short rally pulled back below the line and is once again falling. But the breakout was unique and with the double bottom in 2016 and 2013 one has to wonder if “It’s different this time.” and price will pullback a small percentage and then reverse and blast through the recent highs with a rising rate again. Murphy’s Law suggests this will happen with so many up to their assets in extreme debt.
    Here is a Daily chart of 4 of the signals. I’ve used an RSI 16 to try and duplicate the RSI 8 on a Monthly chart and it works well enough to make the point of the sell signals. Looking at this chart one can see price broke out and after a rally pulled back and is has now pulled back to the 2017 high support. Big test here now to see if price can hold here and reverse back up again for another attempt to clear and hold above the 2018 high and confirm a reversal. This is a big and important test here for the TNX yield. I haven’t spent time on other indicators on the Daily chart of TNX but this Daily chart is also revealing and easier to track for change.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5723709573c&a=579408637

  22. Bernie Says:

    kam,

    Re: #19
    Enjoy the game today. Please, no overtime unless (1) they let the Rams play first, and/or (2) they flip a different coin than the two headed one Belichick slips the ref before all games.

  23. ABP Says:

    RE:#18
    I see the monthly chart and am a subscriber.

  24. ABP Says:

    re:#21
    For some reason, this chart you posted of the Daily $TNX shows up as a weekly chart for me.

  25. dutchcanuck Says:

    #2Yes Bernie, we won’t let anything interfere with a good night’s rest.
    Good to hear from you. Did you see your shadow when you woke up?

  26. Ron/BC Says:

    ABP
    Thanks for the info. I’ll have to stick to daily charts I guess but the Monthlies give a lot of perspective. I’ll try the weeklies as well and see if they are seen as a weekly or daily. And I guess when they change it you don’t see any technical drawings on the either and are just blank bar chart prices.

  27. rocketdave Says:

    Ron/BC

    I’m also a subscriber and i see your chart
    #14 as a “monthly” and your other one
    # 21 as a “weekly”.

  28. rocketdave Says:

    Ron/BC

    Great charts by the way. Thanks for sharing.

  29. Kam Says:

    Bernie
    #22 Lol.

    It never get to the bribery of OT coin flip. But Boy it sounded like a preseason game, Not a Superbowl. And the 5Mil/30 sec ads also sucked today. Guess bad things come in bunches,lol. Atleast the pretty boy won again. He belongs to diff species than us. Almost 42 and not slowed down, guess avocado ice cream is good for you.

  30. Ron/BC Says:

    ABP & rocketdave

    Thanks for the feedback. And yes the #21 post chart was Weekly as I tried to duplicate the Monthly chart with a Daily and finally gave up and changed it to Weekly. So what you saw was correct as long as my personal markings were on the chart and it wasn’t just a plain bar chart. The chart is presently testing the early 2017 highs as support. With the 30 year channel top violated in 2018, plus the 2014 high cleared as well, the only thing left that would suggest to me that price has just been a brief pull back and is about to blow back up through the highs is price holding above the 2017 high support. A break below that 2017 high support would suggest the selloff will continue for a very long time in a zig zag pattern lower just like every other time this has occurred. Here is the Monthly chart again plus the Weekly chart I tried to duplicate the Monthly with. The key point is the RSI became very overbought and on a cross down below the 70 line signaled a reversal back down again for a very long time. I have to wonder if a lower 10 year Yield also means a weaker economy or recession of some degree. I don’t know as I don’t have the data to overlay to see for sure.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=M&st=1986-10-01&id=p1259326520c&a=579408636

  31. Ron/BC Says:

    ABP & Rocketdave

    Here is the Weekly chart that didn’t show up in post #30. And the 2nd chart here is a Daily chart of TNX that shows price testing the late 2016/early 2017 highs double top support. That is the support level that if it fails to hold now would confirm a continued selloff for a very long time.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5723709573c&a=579408637

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0084908031c&a=579408365

  32. Bernie Says:

    dutchcanuck,

    Re: #25 Yawwwwwn…huh? I suppose I have been hibernating from here. It was partly due to being away for half of Feb, down in the land of Dixie and cruising through the Caribbean with 5 port stops. Internet access on the cruise ship was expensive and sketchy at best from what they told us so we didn’t bother. Heck I didn’t even pack my tablet for the trip and can’t say I missed it either. It was an amazing holiday that we will definitely do again sometime! Next week we’re slipping away to Nakusp and Halcyon Hot Springs for a 3 day junket staying in cozy cabins 🙂

  33. Bernie Says:

    Kam,

    Re: #29
    Yeah, I have to agree. The game was more a Superbore than a Superbowl. I had a tough time staying tuned on the most part. Congrats on your team winning and a toast to pretty boy, he certainly is a hellova QB but, that said, his strong supporting cast and coaching crew are no slouches. Also nice to see this one close without controversy. LOL

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