Tech Talk for Wednesday February 6th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday February 6th

U.S. equity index futures were mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were unchanged in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for fourth quarter U.S. Productivity was growth at a 1.6% annual rate versus growth at 2.3% in the third quarter. Actual was growth at a 1.3%. Consensus for U.S. November Trade Deficit was $54.0 billion versus revised $55.7 billion in October. Actual was $49.3 billion.

Electronic Arts dropped $14.75 to $77.77 after reporting less than consensus fiscal third quarter revenues and earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Eli Lilly (LLY $120.43) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Cummins (CMI $149.82) is expected to open lower after reporting lower than consensus quarterly earnings.

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General Motors gained $1.20 to $40.50 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter sales and earnings.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/02/05/stock-market-outlook-for-february-6-2019/

Note seasonality charts on the DAX Index and the CAC Index

Observations

Disney moved above $113.18 after the close yesterday following release of higher than consensus revenues and earnings.

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Nice breakout by the Australian equity market! Growing bullish sentiment for “commodity based” and ” Chinese influenced” markets!

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Encouraging strength by Chinese stocks and related ETFs prior to start of the Chinese New Year holiday!

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Chinese equity markets have a history of moving higher following the Chinese New Year holiday.

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StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $COTY $ZBH $SWKS Breakdown: $CHD

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, intermediate breakouts included VIAB, APC, TRIP, CTAS, JBHT, INTU, MCO, MTD, GM, KMI, CB, RSG, FIS and XRX. No breakdowns.

Loblaw Companies $L.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $64.89 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Alimentation Couche Tard $ATD.B.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $72.39 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Mexico iShares $EWW moved above $45.56 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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More energy stock breakouts! Anadarko Petroleum $APC moved above $48.82 completing a base building pattern

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Tis the season for Anadarko Petroleum $APC and other energy stocks to move higher to the end of April!

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Trader’s Corner.

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 5th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.60 to 88.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 3.20 to 85.90 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought, but continues to trend higher.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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5 Responses to “Tech Talk for Wednesday February 6th 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Morning Ron/BC,

    I hear the weather out on the mainland there has been exceptionally chilly this week. Hope you’re staying warmer on the island 🙂 Hopefully you’re not golfing with snow shoes and extra long tees haha.

    Wondering if you might be kind enough to share your thoughts on STZ this morning please. The last time you commented on it to me was Oct2016, where it traded in a sideways channel for a few months. Seems like it has almost returned to that level. Short term overbought ? Think it might come down to the $150 area and trade sideways again ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  2. KC Says:

    Ron/BC,

    Also wondering what you think about Canadian banks 2019, into 2020 as well. There is a lot of talk about slow mortgage business growth for banks which makes up a significant portion of their revenue. Word is that banks who have other levers to pull on will do best and come out ahead of the pack. Any take on which ones you think will do alright or do you see the entire sector oevrbought and heading down for the year ?

    Thanks again,
    KC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Well up til this week I was golfing here in Victoria. The National news tends to focus on the Mainland or Vancouver which is much wetter and colder than Victoria. I must admit this week is the coldest it’s been all winter and actually froze over night and stayed below zero all day earlier in the week. Yesterday morning as I drove I heard on the radio it was -5 in Vancouver and in Victoria was -1. The day ended at +2 here. My daffodils on my deck did roll over and die much like the stock market in December and there was a skiff of snow in some areas around the core municipalities. And the Hummingbird feeders did freeze overnight as well. So chilly,yes somewhat, but from what I see on the news I wont dare complain about it,lol. Glad I didn’t go to California this winter as the wild fires they had and now massive flooding with mudslides in Los Angeles and Malibu areas has taken lives. Years ago there was plenty of snow in the winter here and much colder but not so much anymore thanks to global warming I guess. But a few days of freezing is needed to kill off most of the pests that fly around in the spring through fall so it is needed and we don’t have many pests in the summer due to some freezing in the winter.

    Here is a chart of STZ. Very volatile stock that violates support and resistance often. Price did form a bulish W pattern with price clearing the top of that pattern at $173 but did not hold above on the pullback. I overlaid XLP the Consumer Staples ETF and STZ does not track it well. Very erratic stock and unless you use wide stops wont hold it for long without getting stopped out. Must be better fish to fry.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=STZ&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p4925417321c&a=644609949

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    Here is a couple of long term charts of the CD banks. They peak out and selloff like everything else. See the late 2007 to early 2009 selloff. And then the late 2014 to early 2016 selloff. And now the late 2018 to ? selloff. I wouldn’t bet a dime on a continued rising market with the banks or broad market from here. That seems more like wishful thinking than likelihood. At some point countries need a recession to flush out all the excesses and leave just the financially strong companies and individuals. This period in time reminds me of 1981 boom times only the interest rates are low. But each economic peak is different but ends up with the same result: Too much exuberance and indebtedness and speculation that needs to be cleared off the books.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BMO&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p2994739817c&a=579408510

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZEB.TO&p=D&yr=13&mn=0&dy=0&id=p3150333354c&a=579408377

  5. Paula Says:

    Not sure who it was that wanted to know if/when I sold some BCE. I just did today at 57.50. About a third of my position. Earnings is this Thursday, I think. I was itching to take some profits.

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