Tech Talk for Friday February 15th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday February 15th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 8 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the February Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Consensus was an increase to 7.00 from 3.90 in December. Actual was.8.8.

Nvidia added $12.47 to $167.00 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter sales and earnings. Note that the stock completed a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern.


CBS dropped $1.20 to $47.90 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter results.


Suncor (SU $43.24 Cdn) is expected to open higher on news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired 10.8 million shares of the stock.


Air Canada (AC $31.98 Cdn) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.



EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

Note seasonality chart on U.S. Retail Trade.

Next Tech Talk Report

It will be available on Tuesday February 19th. Monday is Family Day in Canada and Presidents Day in the U.S.


StockTwits Released Yesterdaty @EquityClock

Momentum sell signals triggered for TSX Composite as the benchmark struggles at resistance. $TSX.CA

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bullish. Intermediate breakouts: $CSCO $FFIV $IPGP $MRO $BWA. No breakdowns


Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, intermediate breakouts included FL, FOX and VRT. Breakdown: KO (a Dow Jones Industrial stock)


Cisco $CSCO, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $48.75 to an all-time high on higher than consensus Q3 earnings extending an uptrend


Coffee ETN $JJOFF moved below $10.40 and $10.26 extending an intermediate downtrend


Birchcliff Energy $BIR.CA moved above $3.54 completing a base building pattern.


Precision Drilling $PDS $PD.CA moved above $2.38 U.S. and $3.15 Cdn. completing a base building pattern


Stantec $STN.CA moved above $31.94 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern


Manulife Financial $MFC.CA, a TSX 60 stock moved above $21.49 extending an intermediate uptrend.


Gasoline ETN $UGA moved above $25.59 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern


‘Tis the season for gasoline prices $UGA to move higher to U.S. Memorial Day holiday!


US #Retail Sales show the weakest December change on record, up 8.9% (NSA). (Average change: +17.0%) $MACRO #Economy $XRT $RTH


Another Canadian oil service stock breakout! Calfrac $CFW.CA moved above $3.08 completing

a base building pattern.


Wheat ETN $WEAT moved below $5.93 extending an intermediate downtrend.


Canada #Manufacturing Sales down 10.6% (NSA) in December, much weaker than 7.6% average decline for the month. $MACRO #CDNecon #CAD


Another Cdn. oil services breakout! Trican Oil Services $TCW.CA moved above $1.42 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders


Energy SPDRs $XLE moved above $65.27 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern


‘Tis the season to own the U.S. energy sector to at least the end of April! $XLE


How ironic following disappointing December retail report day! Retail SPDRs $XRT moved above $45.01 setting an intermediate uptrend.



Trader’s Corner.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 14th 2019


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day



Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 14th 2019


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day


Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 14th 2019


Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day




S&P 500 Momentum Barometer


The Barometer slipped 0.40 to 89.40 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.


TSX Momentum Barometer


The Barometer added 2.24 to 86.92 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.


Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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36 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday February 15th 2019”

  1. rocketdave Says:

    If retail sales were so bad, why is it that the
    ETF XRT moved up?

  2. Paula Says:

    I found your ECA trade (from yesterday’s comments) interesting. I have been in and out of this one a few times over the last year. It is one of a handful of Cdn high volume “blue chips” that I follow for trading. I was waiting for more of a retest of the recent low so missed this move up, which you caught. Congratulations! I had the impression that you rarely traded anything these days, so this one must have really been compelling. Thanks for sharing your insights – very educational to read about how you decide to enter and exit a trade.

    RE the seasonal charts you post: I can see them but then I am a stockcharts member. I believe that non- members can see them but I am not sure. Honestly, I find the seasonal charts misleading since their only validity is on a long term statistical basis – there is no “guarantee” that things will work out the same this time.

    NTR – how honest and endearing to share your mishap while running to catch a bus in sloppy weather. Lucky you didn’t break anything as so many do in similar incidents. When we were travelling in your area a couple of years ago, we had tire trouble and found this place helped us out when no one else had the replacement tire we needed. And very reasonable price. Might want to check them out for snow tires.

  3. Rol Lew Says:

    su getting some love from buffet

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    Well with the snow recently I waded through my long list of stocks and ETFs and commodities looking for good setups and found very little. Since buying my condo that has huge dollar potential on a resale I have been busy with a basic renovation without spending a fortune and considering buying another condo as there are good deals out there even now with the slow down in sales and drop in prices. And I’m just not a believer in buying and holding stock that can be trashed in a heartbeat by a major firm downgrading the stock (and shorting it first) or Trump tweeting something insane or earnings that aren’t what was expected etc etc. To me that is financial suicide at some point. So I came across ECA which was a great day trade and most likely a very good swing trade up to $7.12 and if cleared up to $9-$10 or even back up to major resistance at $12. But I couldn’t live holding it for long, for reasons I just stated. At least with real estate the market can roll over and you still have lots of time to get in and out. You might have to discount your place if selling or what I always do regardless for a fast sale is increase the commission I have to pay to 7% on the first $100k rather than the standard 6%. That will get every realtor in town trying to sell “your house”. It works great and is especially useful in a falling or slowing market that has fewer sales and you want out NOW. So the condo and all the MLS listings in my desired locations only I watch which is about 150 consistently have kept me busy along with spending most days with my partner and golfing. Can only do so much. Not as interested in risky investments as I once was. There is a time in life to just enjoy and do what you wish.

    And yes I look at those seasonal bars just to give me a heads up on long term trends other than the usual technicals. But I believe in the price charts more than anything but do like to turn on the bright lights and look way down the road too and those bars let me know what the odds of price being higher or lower end of month. Not that I’d hold a stock for a month or anything,lol.

    And thanks for the heads up on Westcoast Tire. I’ve driven by them the odd time as my partner lives in the Western Communities so isn’t that far away. I see they carry the BFG Advantage all weather tire there too that I’ve got some quotes on from Costco and another Tire shop and see what kind of deal I can get. It is highly recommended by many places. Most places are out of tires here now because of the snow. But it’s likely over now. That’s why they don’t do a lot of plowing here and why I fell on my face at a major intersection trying to cross over to the sidewalk with a foot of snow and slush to wade through.I forgot you can’t run through that stuff. The municipalities are not well equipped or expecting a lot of snow and when it comes it melts in a few days so they don’t worry much about it with just a sweep or two on major roads. The bus can’t even stop at the curb and everyone has to wade through 6 feet of a foot of snow and slush to get on the bus as he’d get stuck in it at the curb if he pulled in that close. And a large portion of the public take “snow days” off and enjoy the brief winter. They don’t call the West Coast la,la land for no reason,lol.

  5. Rol Lew Says:

    Is this the beginning, or is this the end? A little recovery has taken place since Dec 24th, xeg +17% tcw +35%, tou +24%, but many others continue to flounder.,ECA.TO,CNQ.TO,PD.TO,KEL.TO,BIR.TO,TVE.TO,NVA.TO,XEG.TO,TCW.TO,TOU.TO,SU.TO|D|

  6. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the Commodity ETF:DBC. I see it an other commodity markets are looking potentially bullish. DBC is just breaking out now above the $15.74 double top. Note price has been riding ‘above’ the 50ema and turning it around. The 50ema is still below the falling 200ema but there are many positives on the chart. The RSI 21 has been above the 50 line consistently for over a month now and the overall chart pattern is a bullish Inverse H&S which has huge potential. Perhaps the U.S.$ is going to selloff again. The $USD is trapped between 95 support and 97 resistance so a break below 95 would suggest a big sellofff. I’m not convinced of that just yet as the Euro which trades inverse the the U.S.$ is still bearish. So I have to wonder about the Commodities that have bullish chart patterns setting up. Also see the breakout with a gap of DBE the Energy Fund ETF. Something big is happening!!!!

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Thanks for the heads up on Westcoast Tire store as I hadn’t called them for quotes being so far out of town. I called them and worked out a good deal,better than elsewhere on the tires I need. He’ll have exactly what I need next week and by then the snow will likely be all gone and I’ll have the All Weather tires I want installed with a good trade in on my existing tires. The guy was very objective on the various types of tires and confirmed my own research. Thanks again………… This is a good example of how I live and invest. It’s not all about making more money but how your spend it and save it on your purchases and make with interest income as well which is even more important.

  8. Paula Says:

    Thanks for your reply and comments. I’ll have to take another look at DBC and DBE. It would be nice for the TSX to have a bullish commodity run. Maybe it’s Warren Buffet buying. SU that has turned the light on commodities.

    Glad I could help on the tires. “A penny saved is a penny earned”.

  9. tony Says:

    Hi everyone

    its been a while since i wrote a comment.


    I tendf to sell my shares who turn negative on a TA base and purchase them later on when they turned positive once more.

    so no I didn’t get the low of the oil patch compagnies I bought them a tad later. but I sold them in the middle of summer.

    I could make more profit using an hourly chart but not being able to trade during the day i’m trading using daily chart.
    broadcaster have a tendency of B.S us by giving us a narrow picture. the SnP is up since january 1st but I got in ATD/B MRU in late october early november.

    For the same period SnP return has been 0% as for both names are up 15 + %.

  10. tony Says:

    I can’t always pic the bottom but If I can make money I’m happy.

  11. Ron/BC Says:

    Paula NTR

    Well the savings on the tires wont be pennies but hundreds as they are one of the only ones who will give me a credit on my existing tires and a sharp deal on the new ones. Well worth the drive.

  12. Lony Says:

    You posted links to the FB groups Dividend Growth Investing and Canadian Dividend Investing.
    How would a new member to these groups most efficiently find value?

  13. Bernie Says:


    Re: #12
    Not sure how to answer that. It would depend on what you seek and what knowledge or experience you already have. It never hurts to get another’s opinion or view on a topic but you’ll probably find most of the commenters on these groups have less investing experience than you do. There are comments from real life advisors on occasion but mostly you’ll see commentary from common folk like you and I.

  14. Paula Says:

    NTR- Wow, that’s a lot of savings. Thanks for the feedback. I’m very happy I posted the link and that you followed up on it so quickly. Here in south western Ontario, we have had a series of ice storms, which are even worse than snow. Just walking from the house to the car in the driveway is very risky and we have been spreading a lot of salt and sand. Scraping the ice off is a major job which requires letting the car warm up to help melt it off, that is if you can get into the car with the doors frozen shut. This is where having a remote starter really helps or room for the car in the garage. LOL. Then to top it off we get a light sprinkling of snow which hides the ice so you don’t know where to step. It was similar towards the end of winter last year and certainly discouraged me from going anywhere. The grandkids have had what seems to be a record number of “snow” days so far this year, although I can’t find any stats to prove that. So far I count 5 with one in January, two last week and two in this week we just had. But they were mostly “ice” days with the roads being too treacherous. Last year there was only one cancelled school day. And with ice instead of snow, they can’t even go out and play in it…

  15. Kam Says:

    Hi Bernie,

    I am holding few different dividend paying stocks( I think so atleast) in my TFSA account along with others.Those FB communities as you posted yesterday, I am going to join those today. I am almost in CND energy stocks too much so need to change things so I am always be open to your advise on them.

    Now when I choose these stocks I followed what Canuck2004 was doing but on a small scale. I try to buy Divi stocks with just one parameter, close to $1000 CAD on everyone of them in TFSA. It mostly cost about $1 or so per trade on IB so not much lost in trading costs.
    Here is what I call my dividend list( I myself will call it a buy the bottom list rather than that,lol)but this is mostly what I hold in TFSA:
    ALA, ARX,BPF,CPG,GS,IPL,KEG,PEY,PZA,VET,WCP are CAD divi I am holding at the moment and little down on CPG,ARX,PEY but it is peanuts sans divi. I also have some US stocks and even options in USD in TSFA. I am more than 50% in cash in the account and haven’t deposited anything in the account in last few yrs.
    What you think about my allocation? I am willing to sell them all and try others. I never say never so open to any more suggestions. TIA

  16. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of $GOLD. One can see at a glance that price needs to clear the top of the bullish Ascending Triangle resistance at $1370 to suggest a strong uptrend again. Historically Silver outperforms Gold at turning points higher and the Gold stocks outperform $Gold as well. This has not yet occurred with any conviction.

  17. Bernie Says:


    Re: #15
    Never thought I’d see you holding, let alone, asking about dividend stocks. When did you buy these stocks? Canadian O&G has been out of favour for a few years now. Your picks might have looked like a good sector specific group to own for income and growth prior to 2015 but these days they’re viewed as battered and worn contrarian plays. As can be expected with an “out of favour” sector where foreign investment has dried up from political uncertainty and oil prices have been mostly down the prices have fallen dramatically and dividend cuts became the norm. Only 1 of your 11 (IPL) has maintained its dividend increase streak through the downturn. Outside of the pipes, which I unloaded in Feb 2018, I’ve been out of O&G for a few years. I added TRP back in Jan this year.

    So, I’m not going to tell you what you should do with your holdings. I gotta ask though: what are you looking for out of them? Are you looking for capital growth or possibly high income or do you seek dividend growth? I don’t see much capital growth out of your picks going forward, at least not until our political climate improves and investors like our oil again. That could take quite a while. I suppose you could trade your stocks to gain capital if you’re savvy that way. If you want high income out of them you DID have it. Unfortunately, your income shrunk with the dividend cuts you encountered. Heck CPG had 3 cuts alone. Their dividend shrunk from $0.23/month in Aug 2015 to a current $0.01/quarter this year. They’re considered a penny stock these days. As mentioned dividend growth from your holdings is now in negative territory overall.

    OK dividend stock suggestions. I’m a conservative investor who is retired and “tapping in” so what I own isn’t necessarily good for you, considering you’re younger with a long investing time frame and open to a bit more risk. Not knowing what your goals are and being out of the loop with the news and specifics on valuations I don’t feel qualified to give you the “best” picks, whatever that means. There are many Canadian dividend stocks that could work for you over the long haul. I suggest you narrow that “bunch” down to dividend growers, those that regularly increase their dividends at least annually. That narrowed bunch would be the Canadian Dividend All-Stars which are listed monthly. To make the list they had to have increased their annual dividend consecutively over a minimum of the past 5 years. There is currently 105 members on the latest list (Jan 31, 2019). I suggest you further shorten the list down to blue chips with diversity across the sectors. I own 9 stocks in this shortened list. I consider them to be my core holdings. I have shared my Canadian core with others on Face book because, IMO, these stocks could be held in practically any Canadian investors portfolio for a long term hold. They should provide a combo of modest growth, low beta, decent yield and good dividend growth when grouped together. My core includes: BIP.UN, CNR, T, BNS, TD, TRP, RY, FTS, CAR.UN. IMO good adds to these would be MG and the etf ZLB which I also own and like a lot.

    You only asked about dividend stocks. If you want to add global diversity to your TFSA one or more of the 3 Mawer funds I mentioned to Kam and Florence would work really well with my Canadian core.

  18. Bernie Says:


    A further suggestion for long term dividend holdings: If your broker offers it I’d recommend you DRIP your dividend income. DRIP reinvestments serve you exponential dividend growth at no commission cost.

  19. FishFat Says:

    CES Energy Solutions (
    Price has been in a downtrend since May, but a base building pattern has formed and the MACD has recently made a bullish cross. There is some whipsawing going on, but 34-day EMA is starting to trend up. A breakout and hold above the downtrend is required. There is also strong resistance at $3.65

    My biggest concern is that the share price is less than $5.00 – which is considered by many institutions to be a penny stock which they will not buy. On the plus side, daily volume is reasonable – usually close to a million shares traded per day.

  20. rocketdave Says:

    Here is a good read on the “Trade War” between China & U.S.

  21. bruce Says:

    Armstrong posted a private blog this morning…..hopefully Gary or Sherri will share it with us……tnx…….

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a potentially bullish chart pattern of a Gold stock KGC. I’m not wildly bullish on Gold stocks anymore than Nat Gas stocks or any other stock group. But a ‘good set up’ is just that and all I really care about for a trade. You have to ask yourself what else makes total sense with stock market consistency and I haven’t found anything yet. So here is KGC. Price cleared $3.10 in late Dec while everything else was going to hell and a handbasket and KGC was rallying from a November low and is now bumping up against more significant price resistance at $3.50. Price has been riding above the rising 50ema for two months now and the RSI 21 has been above the 50 line for about the same time. BUTTTTTT price is still below $3.50 resistance. Would be nice to see a pullback to $3.10 1st but wouldn’t count on that. A breakout over $3.50 would be bullish and suggest higher prices.

  23. rocketdave Says:



    I’m in the same camp. I look for stocks now that are just breaking out. I don’t look for stocks that are in season, although that does help, but rather for stocks that have a good setup. closed at $4.59 on Friday and on the weekly it looks to be a bit over bought. In my opinion I think If it can break above $4.60 than it looks like it can go to $5.25, and if it could break that than it has potential to go to the 2016 highs of around $7.50. If that happens, that is a nice return on your investment I would say.
    In your opinion Ron, where do you see this stock going?

  24. kam Says:

    Hi Bernie,


    Lol. Time is a great equalizer. Humans are suppose to adapt/change over time. I am still a trader but won’t mind the idea of having some stocks with dividend and swim in LAZY RIVER.
    As I have disclaimer in that post of so called Divi stocks, it is more like buying the bottom of stocks who also ‘suppose’ to pay Divi than the all stars.I have bought some of those during bloodbath in Dec and some in Jan,Feb.I am thinking of moving more $$ to TFSA account than the one I pay taxes on so a change in game plan.
    I really appreciate you taking time to shed some light on what I have.Consider me a new trader in Divi stocks. I don’t mind someone experienced in an area to tell me what I should be doing.
    Barely use FB but Just saw that I was approved to join the Canadian divi investing site. I think I saw someone in Nelson on FB few years ago resembling your name and last name starting with K or N? If you post or comment there as Bernie then I should be able to find you. There is no privacy on FB, lol.

  25. GARY KRAUSE Says:

    Here you go guys
    Armstrong from the 17th

    We are now approaching the turning point in February. A failure to rally beyond this coming week will signal that we may then move to retest support going into May. Keep in mind that while US politics is now all about obstruction, May will be a major election in Europe where we see a rising tide of anti-EU candidates.

    We still do not see a breakout to the upside and we would have to see a weekly closing above the 26000 level to raise that possibility. Meanwhile, this market can remain choppy as it prepares to respond to the coming change in the Business Cycle identified by the Economic Confidence Model due to turn in January 2020.

    For now, governments are starting to implode on the state/province levels and certainly the municipal level. We are rapidly approaching the point where there will be the same or higher number of people collecting pensions from various governments than are presently working. This becomes economically unstable and will only result in civil unrest as it has always done throughout history.

  26. Ron/BC Says:

    Rocketdave Price has rallied up to its downtrendline and very clear price resistance at $4.50. A breakout that holds should see price rally to $5.30 to $6.00 area. Lots of volume on it which is good. I’ve used a line chart showing closing prices as the stock is volatile and difficult to read on a bar chart. The above chart shows the relationship it has had with the Gold stock The Gold stocks have not been impressive overall. Never seen such weak Gold stock performance for so long in my life time with weak Silver prices and Gold prices that have done little relative to it’s past performance and even Copper has been weak. So 10 years after the bottom of one of the worst recessions on record and a major bull market during this time and there is little to no inflation with very low interest rates. Who would have thunk it…… one. The QE programs have thrown everything out of whack. So good set ups that breakout etc make all the stories pointless and the stocks just simple trades from point A to point B.

  27. Bernie Says:


    Re: #24 “last name starting with K or N”
    That might have been me lol. Agreed, there is little privacy in facebook. I refrain from getting too personal with my financial info. I’m surprised you still have room to add in your TFSA Kam. Its a great place to invest tax free. Wish they had started the TFSA when I was younger!

  28. bruce Says:

    tnx Gary……

  29. Kam Says:

    Hi Bernie,

    True,I didn’t pay much attention to TFSA for yrs which I should have and did more in trading account.I don’t find much time these days actively daytrading so doing less and less and looking at other ways like buying/holding for few days. Now I have funds withdrawn from my trading account and thinking of adding atleast 20k into TFSA soon. I don’t know how much room I have left. Do you know where can I find that out? I believe I deposited about 18-22k so far altogether in past years.
    I have no intention to deploy those funds yet in anything in this market.However I will make a list of some stocks incl All starts and wait until they fall to buying range.

  30. Bernie Says:


    Yes good plan to wait for better valuations and/or technical setups. Many stocks/ETFs are pricey right now. The best way to find out your TFSA room is via your broker, assuming you don’t have other TFSA accounts elsewhere. This CRA site shows how much the maximum allowable contribution was for each individual year the TFSA existed.

  31. rocketdave Says:


    Thanks for your chart, it looks promising for if it stays up there.
    I tried posting a chart but don’t know how. I tried ratio and the
    correlation seems to be a bit more equal than that of Any ways thank you
    for your time.

  32. Ron/BC Says:


    Try using a Stockchart chart that’s posted here and change the symbol on it unless you Subcribe to Stockcharts. Then left click PERMALINK and then left click UPLOAD WITH LINK and then right click the url up top and then left click COPY. At that point you have saved the chart so then wherever you wish to post the chart just right click on where you want the chart and then click PASTE. Not sure if this works if you are not a subscriber to stockcharts or not but I know someone who isn’t can change the chart in various ways so it might work.

  33. rocketdave Says:


  34. Ron/BC Says:


    Perfect chart. It does come out a little smaller so you could also adjust the size by instead of leaving the size as 1024 you could click on the arrow to the right of it and select 1280 size instead. Then it’s the same. I see I just had the 200ema. I also like to have the 50ema on as well to see the two of those moving averages relationship and where price is relative to it.

  35. rocketdave Says:


    Thanks again. I like the 200ema together with the 50ema. I also use the 250ema together with the 130ema, for my longer term.

  36. Ron/BC Says:


    I like to see both the 50ema and 200ema across a chart. I did make up the Modified MACD using 50,200,1 which shows the same thing. Or 50,200,20 that has a 20ema as a signal line with the two big moving averages also works well. Sometimes I use both the moving averages as I like to see the two averages across the chart at a glance which tells me a lot plus the Modified MACD below. The 250ema is a moving average that Green Line lady uses on Public charts on Stockcharts. I think that’s a bit over the top as the 200ema and 50ema are closely watched by large fund managers for their buying and selling. And they are the large volume traders of stocks. I haven’t been using the SCTR for a stock ranking as I don’t tend to hold things long so only trading high quality ranked stocks isn’t that important to me. So good technical trade set ups with descent volume is something I started with in the 70’s and that seems to be what I’m geared to. Lots of ways to skin a cat though. I recall in 1999 a bunch of us met that traded and invested in stocks and none of us did the same thing. Might as well have all spoke a different language as we didn’t see the point of each system used. Everyone has a different nature it seems.

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