Tech Talk for Thursday February 28th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday February 28th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 4 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 220,000 versus 216,000 last week. Actual was 225,000. Consensus for first estimate for U.S. fourth quarter real GDP was growth at a 2.4% rate versus growth at a 3.4% rate in the third quarter actual was growth at a 2.6% rate.

South Korea KOSPI dropped 1.8% after U.S./North Korea talks were unable to reach an agreement.

L Brands dropped $1.75 to $25.65 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The company also lowered guidance.

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Air Canada (AC $34.27) is expected to open higher after raising guidance.

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Anheuser Busch (BUD $74.72) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results.

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HP Inc (HPQ $23.85) dropped $3.45 to $20.40 after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues.

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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM $114.73) and Toronto Dominion Bank (TD $77.30) reported less than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. Both also increased their quarterly dividend.

EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/02/27/stock-market-outlook-for-february-28-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Margin Debt and New Manufacturing Orders.

 

StockTwits Released Yesterday @EquityClock

S&P 500 Index shows initial signs of reaction to horizontal resistance. http://www.equityclock.com/2019/02/26/stock-market-outlook-for-february-27-2019/ $SPX $SPY $ES_F

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Laurentian Bank $LB.CA moved below $42.42 setting an intermediate downtrend

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Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakout: $BBY Breakdowns: $HFC $MYL.

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, intermediate breakouts included CPB, KR and REGN. No breakdowns.

UnitedHealth Group $UNH, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $256.34 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Chevron $CVX, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved above $121.21 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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US #Factory #Orders up 0.9% (NSA) in December, much weaker than 3.6% increase that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Manufacturing

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Canadian Utilities $CU.CA moved above $34.09 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Corn ETN $CORN moved below $15.79 extending an intermediate downtrend

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US Domestic Production of Oil charts another record high, but increasing net exports are keeping inventory situation in check $USO $XLE $XOP

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US #Factory #Orders up 0.9% (NSA) in December, much weaker than 3.6% increase that is average for the month. $MACRO #Economy #Manufacturing

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Trader’s Corner.

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for February 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for February 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for February 27th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Update on Previously Favoured Seasonal Trades

Several silver and gold securities were supported with price and seasonality charts on January 25th, January 28th and January 30th. All moved below their 20 day moving average yesterday, all recorded a downtrend in momentum indicators during the past week and all have underperformed the S&P 500 Index during the past two weeks. Accordingly, they no longer are supported as a seasonal trade. All currently are trading at or near prices recorded when they broke above previous trading ranges. They include Yamana Gold (YRI.TO) recorded on January 25th, Franco-Nevada (FNV) on January 28th, Silver ETN (SLV) on January 28th and Agnico-Eagle (AEM) on January 29th and Goldcorp (G.TO) on January 30th

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 0.20 to 91.60 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped 1.69 to 84.81 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and showing technical signs of rolling over.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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7 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday February 28th 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Hello Bernie,

    Thank you so much for your comments on your RRSP holdings. I may be younger than you, however not far behind I suppose. I’ve long since lost the ability to count the number of grey hair showing. When you get to that point, you know you’ve crossed over the hump.

    Further questions I have are, do you tend to move in/out of those equities or just buy n hold ? Also, have you done much digging into the fundamentals for those equities and perhaps a comparison within the sectors groupings ?

    Thanks,
    KC

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is the breakout of ECA above $7.12. Technicals suggest a rally to $9.00 with first resistance at $8.00.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0956055903c&a=579408588

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    Here is a chart of the well loved XEG.to. Price is poking its nose above the magic $10 resistance level and has remained above the 50ema turning that moving average up again. And the 20ema has just crossed above the 50ema. Determined little ETF isn’t it. Price needs to clear AND hold above $10 to suggest further gains. This is the time of year Oil stocks tend to bottom and run up if history is about to repeat. Not interested myself though.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p8794056254c&a=579408452

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7004736262c&a=646496004

    The 3rd chart is XEG.to with SU.to and CNQ.to overlaid to show their relative performance compared to the complete ETF itself as those two stocks make up 45% of the ETF.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7548539187c&a=579408398

  4. Bernie Says:

    KC,

    I’ve found buy, monitor and hold has given me my greatest returns. I’ve done least well when I attempted to time my purchases or acted impulsively. On second thought I think I did worse when I employed a financial planner…lol. I feel my overall mix of securities is fairly safe, well diversified and low risk so I don’t need to monitor as closely as I would with the equity portfolio I carried for several years. As for fundamentals valuations I don’t concern myself with them much anymore unless asked or just out of curiosity. I consider my 11 stocks core holdings. Looking briefly at current valuations it would appear only TRP is undervalued. CAR.UN, O and UL look overvalued and the remainder are near fair value. This isn’t the best time to be buying new positions anyway. As Ron would say, cash is also a position. I’d suggest either sitting on cash, holding on with what you brought to the dance or dollar cost averaging in with new money. If you’re not a member already I highly recommend subscribing to 5i Research for some excellent unbiased advise. They have much to offer there including model portfolios and they will answer your queries personally. I believe you can get a free trial too if you want to test drive them first.

  5. KC Says:

    Ron/BC, Paula,

    Do you think BCE.TO has formed a W pattern since Dec, 2017 to Feb 2019 ? As a result do you think it will blow through this $59 resistance ? It is very overbought, however, it gets into positive seasonality starting first week of March too.

    Cheers,
    KC

  6. KC Says:

    Hi Bernie,

    Highly appreciate your comments and time. Will respond shortly

    Thanks!

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    BCE.to does not show much respect for support and resistance. And when it breaks out or breaks down price can cut right back through it again like cheese. Don’t know what moves this stock but whatever it may be it is erratic. There is support at the big round number of 50 but that’s about it from past price action. Even the December low was much higher than the November low unlike most stocks. Bottom line is price could blow through $59 and after a run up come back and not respect the breakout point as support and come right back down to the mid 50s again. Not an easy one to trade. The RSI 8 does look like a price high for now is in for awhile looking back at previous highs.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5102136693c&a=579408570

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