Tech Talk for Thursday March 7th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 7th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 3 points in pre-opening trade.

Index futures turned positive after the European Central Bank announced additional funding for European banks.

Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for Weekly Jobless Claims was 225,000 versus 226,000 last week. Actual was 223,000. Consensus for fourth quarter Non-farm Productivity was growth at a 1.7% rate versus 2.2% in the third quarter. Actual was growth at a 1.9% rate.

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO $21.32) is expected to open lower after reducing its earnings guidance.

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Allergan (AGN $137.51) is expected to open lower after reporting disappointing test results for its depression treatment. Stifel Nicolaus lowered its target price to $175 from $195.

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PayPal (PYPL $96.46) is expected to open higher after KeyBanc Capital raised its target price to $110 from $105.

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Este Lauder (EL $153.88) is expected to open higher after JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral. Target price was raised to $175 from $160.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/03/06/stock-market-outlook-for-march-7-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Crude Oil Days of Supply and Gasoline Days of Supply.

 

Observations

More technical evidence that the Bear Market rally has ended! Broadly based U.S. equity indices and their related ETFs broke below their 20 day moving average yesterday.

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The Canadian Dollar remains under technical pressure. Short term breakdown at 74.75 cents U.S.!

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. No intermediate breakouts. Breakdowns: $TRIP $GILD $GE $ALK $HPQ

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, intermediate breakouts included FB, ED and DLTR. Breakdown: HAL.

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India ETF $PIN moved above $24.37 resuming an intermediate uptrend.

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Aecon Group $ARE.CA moved above $19.65 to an all-time high extending an intermediate uptrend

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Facebook $FB, one of the FAANG stocks moved above $172.47 extending an intermediate uptrend

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Canadian #Exports show mediocre growth in 2018, up a mere 0.5%. $MACRO #CDNecon #CAD

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Mexico ETF $EWW moved below $42.42 setting an intermediate downtrend.

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Forest Product iShares $WOOD moved below $63.56 completing a double top pattern. Following the downtrend in lumber futures prices

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Editor’s Note: Note technical comment below on the Home Builder ETF (XBM). A slowdown in the Home Building sector has a direct impact on demand for lumber and plywood.

Days of supply of Oil and Gas moving in opposite directions: Oil up, Gas down, resulting in the divergence in prices. $USO $UGA $XLE $XOP

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More evidence that Bear Market Rally in U.S. equity indices has ended! Russell 2000 Index and related ETF $IWM moved below their 20 day MA

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More technical evidence that Bear Market Rally in U.S. equity indices has ended! Dow Jones Industrials and $DIA moved below their 20 day MA

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Updates

More favoured seasonal trades have become profit taking candidates. They are trades that previously were supported with a price chart breakout accompanied with a seasonality chart in StockTwits @EquityClock and Tech Talk. Recently, all have recorded negative short term momentum (daily Stochastics, RSI, MACD) and have started to show underperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Yesterday, all broke below their 20 day moving average. Selections included:

 

Homebuilders SPDRs (XHB $38.08) discussed on January 4th at $33.66.

Incyte (INCY $83.37) discussed on January 8th at $74.89

Broadcom (AVGO $271.35) discussed on January 15th at $256.49

Texas Instruments (TXN $105.42) discussed on January 25th at $104.81

 

Trader’s Corner.

 

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 6th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 6th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 6th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 3.20 to 84.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has started to trend down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 2.95 to 78.06 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has started to trend down.

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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8 Responses to “Tech Talk for Thursday March 7th 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    Hello Ron/BC,

    Any thoughts on whats going on with $USD and UUP ? I’m just baffled with these upticks on the charts with all the turmoil going on with trade deals, markets and geopolitical things. Arent these upticks a bit contrary to underlying issues ?

    Are you still sitting tight with your USD cash ? These uptrends sometimes make me want to convert to $CDN and take profit.

    Thanks,
    KC

  2. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    The u.s.$ is rallying as The Euro is plunging due to comment by Mario Draghi saying no rate hikes til end of year with such a weak and weakening European economy.
    The CD$ tends to have a strong rally in April. But good luck with that. I like my U.S.$ AT least it’s real money.

  3. Rol Lew Says:

    nyse advancers minus decliners

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21BINYMSIS&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p5824399935c

    bullish? or bearish?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p3606944247c

    in 2016 mcclellan had a huge move down from this level, but dia did nothing much.

  4. Polish1 Says:

    Big move in the US Dollar today following the ECB announcement
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3132000315c&a=237074239&listNum=61
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=21&id=p7881774016c&a=161880876&listNum=61

  5. Polish1 Says:

    a red candle now, MACD also cross
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&st=2018-05-01&id=p9135150012c&a=642617270&listNum=12

  6. bruce Says:

    ron and ana

    now that the sds has decisively closed above 35 do you have any projections for the s and p?…..

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Bruce

    SDS buy point was the break above $35. How far it goes is always an unanswered question but the stop loss would be a close below $35. The lower trend indicators are obviously down and bearish but are of course much slower than the short term oscillators. Wish I had time to watch these markets closer but I seem to be up to my assets in alligators all the time now. SH tested $28 and is bouncing back up as well of course and looking good here. Would not want to see it close below $28 again.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17662462645&a=630713578

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55851094658&a=649895636

  8. bruce Says:

    tnx Ron

    i think i spend too much time watching the markets……..maybe i should get an alligator….

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