Tech Talk for Friday March 8th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday March 8th

U.S. equity index futures were lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 21 points in pre-opening trade. The drop in index futures was prompted by a 4.4% fall by the Shanghai Composite Index following news of a slowdown in Chinese trade.

Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for January Housing Starts was an increase to 1.190 million units from 1.078 million units in December. Actual was 1.23 million units. Consensus for February Non-farm Payrolls was 180,000 versus upwardly revised 311,000 in January. Actual was 20,000. Consensus for February Unemployment Rate was 3.9% versus 4.0% in January. Actual was 3.8%. Consensus for February Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0/1% in January. Actual was an increase of 0.4%.

The Canadian Dollar added 0.27 to 74.60 cents U.S. following release of Canadian economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for February Canadian Employment was an increase of 1,200 versus a gain of 66,800 in January. Actual was 55,900. Consensus for February Unemployment Rate was 5.7% versus 5.8% in January. Actual was unchanged at 5.8%.

Costco gained $9.75 to $226.54 after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. Raymond James and Raymond James raised their target price on the stock.

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Exxon Mobil dropped $1.26 to $78.90 after Cowen downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform. Target price was cut to $75 from $100.

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Caesar’s Entertainment added $0.22 to $8.80 on news that Carl Icahn raised his interest in the stock to 15.6% from approximately10%.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:

http://www.equityclock.com/2019/03/07/stock-market-outlook-for-march-8-2019/

Note seasonality charts on Non-Farm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims.

Observations

Response to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement was not greeted well by currency markets. The Euro dropped below support at 112.15 to a 21 month low extending an intermediate downtrend.

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OOOPs! Trump administration is exploring price disclosure requirements by hospitals and doctors.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Bearish. No breakouts. Breakdowns: $CCL $GM $GT $KR $CME $ICE $VRTX $GD $DXC $AMD

Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EST, breakout included PSA and breakdowns included HUM, IFF and AMG.

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S&P 500 Index $SPX moved below $2768 and 2765 completing a double top pattern

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Another Canadian "gassy" stock breakout! $PONY.CA moved above $1.61 completing a double bottom pattern.

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U.S. Dollar Index ETN $UUP moved above $25.90 to a two year high extending an intermediate uptrend

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South Africa ETF $EZA moved below $51.70 setting an intermediate downtrend

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CGI Group $GIB, a TSX 60 stock moved below $65.55 U.S. completing a double top pattern.

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Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B, a Dow Jones Industrial stock moved below $198.21 setting an intermediate downtrend

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U.S. Broker iShares $IAI moved below $59.46 setting an intermediate downtrend

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Trader’s Corner.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 7th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Updates

More previously favoured seasonal trades triggered by upside intermediate breakouts have recorded short term technical deterioration (i.e. breaks below their 20 day moving average, downtrending momentum indicators, negative strength relative to the S&P 500 Index). Accordingly, they no longer are supported as a seasonal trade. They include:

 

Incyte (INCY $82.45) discussed on January 8th at $74.89

BMO Base Metals ETF (ZMT $44.45) discussed on January 9th at $41.45

Base Metals iShares (PICK $30.23) discussed on January 9th at $28.44

GlobeX Copper Miners (COPX $21.23) discussed on January 9th at $19.23

eBay (EBAY $36.21) discussed on January 10th at $30.57

Netflix (NFLX $352.60) discussed on January 11th at 337.59

Emerging Markets iShares (EEM $41.94) discussed on January 17th at 41.35

First Quantum (FM $14.56) discussed on January 30th at $14.23

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 3.20 to 84.00 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has started to trend down.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer dropped another 2.95 to 78.06 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought and has started to trend down.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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23 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday March 8th 2019”

  1. KC Says:

    ROn/BC,

    Not sure if it was you that commented about CALX a few weeks ago. I see its dropping to its uptrend line. Do you see it shedding a buy signal sometime soon?

    Cheers
    KC

  2. KC Says:

    RonBC,

    If you are kind enough to shed more of your time, id love your take on Boston Scientific too. Seems like it rolled over, but possibly at a support here or do you see it heading lower to $32 area support?

    Thanks
    KC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    CALX has had a nice trend of mostly higher highs and higher lows in a steady uptrend. Price isn’t respecting any particular support or resistance levels but the pattern is ok. The last two big rallies saw price go dramatically above the 200ema which is a warning of a short term explosive top. But price is back down to its comfort zone in here. Would not want to see price close below 7.40 and it would be a technical buy above 8.50. Not a lot of volume for a NYSE stock. This is a line chart meaning closing prices only to get rid of the intraday noise.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CALX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05083643688&a=650745443

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    KC

    BSX broke out above 39.44 previous high but on the pullback is not holding as support and has formed a short term bearish M pattern. Price may hold at next support at the 38.69 area where 3 previous highs were seen but the uptrendline from late December has been broken. It was very steep so wouldn’t likely hold much longer in any case and that in itself is not that bearish. The rising 50ema is above the rising 200ema and the trend is still bullish. As long as the 38.60 area holds which is also roughly the 50ema then the stock is technically ok. But price is still a long ways from its 200ema home base so buying at this point is riskier than I’d be comfortable with. Odds of a further selloff after such a straight up bounce back are high and this first breakdown might be a warning of further to come. Just watch the 38.60 level to hold or breakdown.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BSX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72866142424&a=650747959

  5. Ron/BC Says:

    The $SPX is pulling back from critical resistance of 2815 once again and approaching its 50ema AND its 200ema And its Fib 61.8% retracement level all at the same price point. Very unusual confluence of indicators. Price needs to find support there and reverse to turn things back up again. If it can do that the next time up would likely take out the 2800 level and make new highs at or above 2940. And of course if this is going to occur the financial media will have to create a big bullish news story such as a great China deal or some sort of WOW story. Gotta have a story to explain it all away. BUTTTTTTTTTTTT if price breaks below this approaching support area you will see that 50ema tag the 200ema and roll over again. This tends to be what you’d see in the early stages of a bear market. Watch for this and the lower indicators that are presently rolling over and testing important levels.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9412314680c&a=582707024

  6. Paul Says:

    Ron/BC, if you have time could you give your take on NVEE; I purchased today at $53.75 after its deep move to its 3 year uptrend line and previous support. Its a company favoured for the longer term by David Driscoll who seems bright. Would you use a stop ?
    Thank you, Paul

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Paul
    NVEE is a good example of catching a falling knife or piano. But price has come down to the December low support and that is also its 3 year uptrendline. But price still needs to hold at this level within reason or it could plunge to 50 or even 40. It would be best to see a rebound off this level very soon to suggest a bounce back. Obviously some very bad news came out on it with a lot of volume bailing out. Hopefully smart money will view it as very oversold and at support and jump back on it.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVEE&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85748511728&a=650757832

  8. KC Says:

    RonBC,

    Highly appreciate your time and insight. You are very kind! Danke, Merci!

  9. Paul Says:

    Thank you Ron !

  10. TomC Says:

    Any insights into bond ETF’s (individual names + reasons) as I am moving to a more conservative risk exposure.
    thanks in advance

  11. bruce Says:

    kc
    re: bsx….in the past 3 months there has been 11 insider buys and 115 insider sales including 64223 shares sold by the cfo……..

  12. KC Says:

    Paul,

    Interesting company profile for NVEE? I just took a look at the earningw conference call transcript for yestrday at 430pm. Seems like they made a few acquisitions in 2018 and had a good Q4. So i wonder if the hit the stock took today is a sell on news. Its strange that the stock took that big a hit with their projections for 2019.

    Your thoughts?

    I will be watching this one.

    KC

  13. KC Says:

    Does anyone here watch T.TO closely and regularly? I see its approaching Resistance at 47.55. Thoughts anyone?

  14. Bobj Says:

    TomC #10

    I hold both XBB and ZAG, similar return, up 4 % of low Oct. 2018.
    All in one ETF, very low MER, check Bond Durations and Ratings.

  15. Ana Says:

    $SPX

    http://schrts.co/GGGzVJCD

    The chart is altered from Ron/BC’s original chart in #5

    $SPX Futures

    https://invst.ly/a8d3f

  16. Ana Says:

    So the $SPX found support on the futures.

    I know many people say not to focus on such a short term chart.

    However, when I wanted to post my usual chart, it looked like this:

    https://invst.ly/a8d4j

    Juvenile humour, I know. 😀 😀 😀

  17. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana NTR

    If you want some shocking humour on Netflix watch RAKE. It’s set in Australia and about a Lawyer and the people he defends. You do need a good sense of humour though to watch each episode.

  18. Ron/BC Says:

    Anyone notice the long tail on today’s Bar with the $SPX. And price closed within a point of the high of the day. If I was short I’d be worried about now. Would not take much to drive the $SPX to and through 2815 and to and through the October high of 2940. (Where are those S&P 3000 hats anyways……………..) And no,I’m not bullish but there is potential for this to occur. All we need now is some bullish b.s. news report over the weekend to see a gap up,up and away Monday morning. The heavy short covering alone would get things going on the upside. The key point is price is at a very explosive point on the chart and could explode or implode at this point easily. Option Strangles should be the ticket.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9412314680c&a=582707024

  19. Ron/BC Says:

    $GOLD bounced back off price support to $1300. Needs to clear $1300 and hold above to suggest a run to strong resistance at $1360-1370. Seasonals are bearish into summer.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p0170705917c&a=629116291

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7481741323c&a=579408509

  20. Ana Says:

    #17 . Ron/BC

    Thank you for the suggestion Ron/BC, I will try to watch that.

    I really liked “Kodachrome”. I recently told my daughter to watch it. She asked, “what is Kodachrome”?

    I am looking forward to seeing “The Hummingbird Project” at the movie theatre.

  21. Bernie Says:

    Ron/BC & Ana,

    Thanks for the recommends. Am definitely interested in Rake and Kodachrome. We watch a lot of Netflix. Below is a link to a list of some other “binge worthy” Netflix shows you might be interested in. Rake is on their list too. https://www.canadianfreestuff.com/netflix-canada-binge-watch/

  22. Ron/BC Says:

    Ana & Bernie

    I should warn you about the Netflix “RAKE” as it does have course language and scenes not suitable for many people,lol. But it’s a funny series that just keeps going. I’ve found Netflix seems to lack good movies with recognizable actors and actresses as even if its a bad movie those recognizable people make the movie ok. We’ll have to watch Kodachrome.

    Bernie: Thanks for your list of Netflix shows. I’ll check them out with my partner as we are running out of movies to watch. One that is my personal favourite is The Blacklist.

  23. Paul Says:

    Hi KC, am attaching links to the interview with David Driscoll where he recommneds NVEE and also to a Motley Fool report from Friday that attempts to explain the drop in price. It explains that accounting irregularities have arisen which is never calming although NVEE tried to spin it positively. I was unaware of this when I bought as I was clearly focused on the support lines and trend and the positive outlook from DD. Per RonBC I’ll watch to ensure I am out if it continues to fall but am equally looking for a bounce. Note that I’m no chart expert like so many here; doing well in Rons long running course of drawing straight lines for trend and support/resistance but very average in Patience 101. That said I really do appreciate all I have learned from others here. I’ll post if I make any moves here or if I learn more. I’d of course appreciate any thoughts you have on it. Best, Paul
    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/david-driscoll-s-top-picks-jan-17-2019-1.1200272
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nv5-global-shares-were-171100155.html

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