Tech Talk for Friday March 15th 2019

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Pre-opening Comments for Friday March 15th

U.S. equity index futures were higher this morning. S&P 500 futures were up 13 points in pre-opening trade.

Oracle (ORCL $53.05) is expected to open lower after releasing lower than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings guidance.

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Broadcom (AVGO $268.20) is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.

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Adobe (ADBE $267.69) is expected to open lower after reporting less than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings guidance. KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Sector Weight from Overweight.

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Amazon added $19.67 to $1705.89 after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight. Target was set at $2100.

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EquityClock’s Daily Market Comment

Following is a link:
http://www.equityclock.com/2019/03/14/stock-market-outlook-for-march-15-2019/

Note seasonality charts on the Materials sector and New Home Sales.

 

Observations

European equities and related ETFs continue to outperform North American equity markets.

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StockTwits released yesterday @EquityClock

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks to 10:00: Quiet. Intermediate breakouts: $FOXA $COG . Breakdown: $DG

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Editor’s Note: After 10:00 AM EDT, intermediate breakouts included KMB and PWR. No additional breakdowns.

Magna Int’l $MG.CA $MGA, a TSX 60 stock moved below support at$68.28 and $49.19 U.S. Following other auto part stocks.

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BMO equal weight Cdn. oil ETF $ZEO.CA moved above 44.51 extending an intermediate uptrend.

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Commodity iShares ETN $GSG moved above $15.90 completing a reverse Head & Shoulders pattern

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Natural gas $UNG and "gassy" stocks/ETF $FCG move higher on a large 204 MBtu weekly draw down of U.S. Inventories

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Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Trader’s Corner.

Equity Indices and related ETFs

Daily Seasonal/Technical Equity Trends for March 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Commodities

Daily Seasonal/Technical Commodities Trends for March 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

Sectors

Daily Seasonal/Technical Sector Trends for March 14th 2019

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Green: Increase from previous day

Red: Decrease from previous day

 

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http://www.equityclock.com/about/seasonal-advantage-portfolio/

 

Don Vialoux on Michael Campbell’s Money Talks

Listen to Money Talks tomorrow (Saturday) at 8:30 AM EDT Vancouver time (11:30 AM EDT Toronto time) on Radio CKNW. Following is a link:

https://globalnews.ca/radio/cknw/player/?gref=cknw&cmpid=other#/

 

Update

Favourable technical and seasonal comments for a seasonal trade were offered on Royal Bank (RY $102.64) on January 18th at $98.64. Yesterday, the stock moved below its 20 day moving average, began to underperform the S&P 500/TSX Composite and recorded downtrends by daily momentum indicators. Accordingly, the stock no longer is favoured as a seasonal trade.

Ditto for Canadian Financial iShares (XFN $37.56) mentioned favourably on January 16th at $35.63. Note the drop in technical score recorded yesterday by the TSX Financial Services Index and related ETFs to -4.

 

S&P 500 Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer added 2.00 to 83.80 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

TSX Momentum Barometer

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The Barometer slipped 2.52 to 71.43 yesterday. It remains intermediate overbought.

 

Disclaimer: Seasonality and technical ratings offered in this report and at

www.equityclock.com are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed

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10 Responses to “Tech Talk for Friday March 15th 2019”

  1. Larry/ON Says:

    SP500 keeps returning to bump up against resistance around 2820. At the same time you have a plethora of asset managers describe how they anticipate a pull-back and are holding cash. The 50 day MA is maybe two weeks away from a positive cross-over of the 200day MA. The more the market bumps up against resistance and the more market participants are holding cash the more likely it is that we go through resistance. Jim Cramer had an interesting piece on CNBC on Monday about how there aren’t enough people left to sell and he anticipates a lift in the market. A positive leading indicator is the semi index SOXX which is close to its’ all-time high and about to have a positive 50/200 crossover. The transports are lagging however.

  2. KC Says:

    Hi Ron/BC,

    Hoping you might have a few mins to throw up your chart on CDW Corp please.

    Thanks,
    KC

  3. Ron/BC Says:

    KC
    CDW-nyse cleared the 96.45 resistance on its 2nd attempt and that has been the low of today so far. If it can stay above this level and at least consolidate that will become support. But there is a negative divergence on most any oscillator showing a loss of momentum on this new high. There are large price swings within a steady uptrend so a pullback would be a better time to buy. Huge difference between 97 and 85 support. Price has coincided with an oversold low in the RSI 8 and Stochastics in the past. That can occur even if price holds above 96.45 which would be better timing overall.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDW&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76967113955&a=652315715

  4. Ron/BC Says:

    “”””IF”””” the $SPX can stay above 2815 there should be a lot of short covering which would drive prices higher. A close above this level would get this moving higher to the October high of 2940 or beyond especially on a Friday close. A lot of short sellers will be sweating over the weekend if they hold those short sales. Especially the futures traders that are highly leveraged. Everyone and his dog is short here at 2815 which is obvious major resistance. And like the old saying goes,”If it’s obvious,it’s obviously wrong.” Sad but true………….

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9412314680c&a=582707024

  5. harry Says:

    Ana——Do you ever trade HQU and HQD?

  6. Harry Says:

    Ron/BC—-Any more room for ECA to run? Thanks.

  7. Ron/BC Says:

    Harry
    Like a lot of charts ECA is more than a little erratic for my liking. A Friday close will be better to judge markets. All markets are over reacting to any and every bit of news as they dont know where we are in the economic cycle anymore. Neither does the Federal Reserve which really screws markets up.

  8. Harry Says:

    Ron/BC—-Thanks Ron, out and maybe back in next week, have a good week-end.

  9. Ron/BC Says:

    Harry

    I spent some time on ECA and it does look like a buy here from what I see. Price needs to clear $7.40 to confirm but price has spent a lot of time up in this price zone consolidating with traders waiting for ‘something’ to confirm a rally back. Not much resistance left at this level. Support is at $7.00 along with the uptrendline. The Modified MACD below is in a nice uptrend above its 10ema and rising and about to cross above the zero line meaning the 20ema is crossing back above the 50ema. Always a good sign. And the seasonal trend is bullish ahead. The RSI 21 is also above its 50 line. Note: The Nat Gas ETF:UNG does not match up with ECA.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ECA&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p37697825985&a=645980420

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/seasonality.php?symbol=ECA&compare=

  10. Harry Says:

    Ron/BC—-Thanks Ron, looking at both arx and eca but looking for direction from oil and gas before the open. Both stocks look like in an uptrend on the PPO indicator, but energy could be at resistance, maybe some noise in the futures.

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